How predictable is the northern hemisphere summer upper-tropospheric circulation?   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

June-Yi Lee  Bin Wang  Q. Ding  K.-J. Ha  J.-B. Ahn  A. Kumar  B. Stern  O. Alves 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(5-6):1189-1203

The retrospective forecast skill of three coupled climate models (NCEP CFS, GFDL CM2.1, and CAWCR POAMA 1.5) and their multi-model ensemble (MME) is evaluated, focusing on the Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer upper-tropospheric circulation along with surface temperature and precipitation for the 25-year period of 1981–2005. The seasonal prediction skill for the NH 200-hPa geopotential height basically comes from the coupled models’ ability in predicting the first two empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of interannual variability, because the models cannot replicate the residual higher modes. The first two leading EOF modes of the summer 200-hPa circulation account for about 84% (35.4%) of the total variability over the NH tropics (extratropics) and offer a hint of realizable potential predictability. The MME is able to predict both spatial and temporal characteristics of the first EOF mode (EOF1) even at a 5-month lead (January initial condition) with a pattern correlation coefficient (PCC) skill of 0.96 and a temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) skill of 0.62. This long-lead predictability of the EOF1 comes mainly from the prolonged impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as the EOF1 tends to occur during the summer after the mature phase of ENSO. The second EOF mode (EOF2), on the other hand, is related to the developing ENSO and also the interdecadal variability of the sea surface temperature over the North Pacific and North Atlantic Ocean. The MME also captures the EOF2 at a 5-month lead with a PCC skill of 0.87 and a TCC skill of 0.67, but these skills are mainly obtained from the zonally symmetric component of the EOF2, not the prominent wavelike structure, the so-called circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern. In both observation and the 1-month lead MME prediction, the first two leading modes are accompanied by significant rainfall and surface air temperature anomalies in the continental regions of the NH extratropics. The MME’s success in predicting the EOF1 (EOF2) is likely to lead to a better prediction of JJA precipitation anomalies over East Asia and the North Pacific (central and southern Europe and western North America).  相似文献   

Stable isotope-guided analysis of biomagnification profiles of arsenic species in a tropical mangrove ecosystem     

Tu NP  Agusa T  Ha NN  Tuyen BC  Tanabe S  Takeuchi I 《Marine pollution bulletin》2011,63(5-12):124-134

We performed stable carbon and nitrogen-guided analyses of biomagnification profiles of arsenic (As) species, including total As, lipid-soluble As, eight water-soluble As compounds (arsenobetaine (AB), arsenocholine (AC), tetramethylarsonium ion (TETRA), trimethylarsine oxide (TMAO), dimethylarsinic acid (DMA), monomethylarsonic acid (MMA), arsenate (As[V]), and arsenite (As[III])), and non-extracted As in a tropical mangrove ecosystem in the Ba Ria Vung Tau, South Vietnam. Arsenobetaine was the predominant As species (65-96% of water-soluble As). Simple linear regression slopes of log-transformed concentrations of total As, As fractions or individual As compounds on stable nitrogen isotopic ratio (δ15N) values are regarded as indices of biomagnification. In this ecosystem, lipid-soluble As (slope, 0.130) and AB (slope, 0.108) were significantly biomagnified through the food web; total As and other water-soluble As compounds were not. To our knowledge, this is one of the first reports on biomagnification profiles of As compounds from a tropical mangrove ecosystem.  相似文献   

Use of daily precipitation uncertainties in streamflow simulation and forecast   总被引：3，自引：2，他引：1  

Yeonsang Hwang  Martyn P. Clark  Balaji Rajagopalan 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2011,25(7):957-972

Among other sources of uncertainties in hydrologic modeling, input uncertainty due to a sparse station network was tested. The authors tested impact of uncertainty in daily precipitation on streamflow forecasts. In order to test the impact, a distributed hydrologic model (PRMS, Precipitation Runoff Modeling System) was used in two hydrologically different basins (Animas basin at Durango, Colorado and Alapaha basin at Statenville, Georgia) to generate ensemble streamflows. The uncertainty in model inputs was characterized using ensembles of daily precipitation, which were designed to preserve spatial and temporal correlations in the precipitation observations. Generated ensemble flows in the two test basins clearly showed fundamental differences in the impact of input uncertainty. The flow ensemble showed wider range in Alapaha basin than the Animas basin. The wider range of streamflow ensembles in Alapaha basin was caused by both greater spatial variance in precipitation and shorter time lags between rainfall and runoff in this rainfall dominated basin. This ensemble streamflow generation framework was also applied to demonstrate example forecasts that could improve traditional ESP (Ensemble Streamflow Prediction) method.  相似文献   

气候变暖对刚察县采暖气象指标的影响及节能潜力分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

朱宝文  侯俊岭  哈承智  宋理明  赵泽 《气象科技》2011,39(6):736-740

利用青海省刚察县1961—2008年逐日气温资料,运用数理统计等方法,分析了该地区采暖期气象条件变化及节能潜力。结果表明,1961—2008年间,刚察县采暖期平均气温上升,负积温减少,采暖初日推迟、终日提前,采暖长度明显缩短;采暖度日与采暖期平均气温关系密切,采暖度日呈极显著下降趋势,特别是1994年气温突变后,下降趋势更加明显,冬季寒冷程度有所减弱,能耗需求量减小;该县采暖能源需求异常偏多主要分布在20世纪60年代,偏多年份以70—80年代为主,偏少年份出现在80年代中期以后,主要集中在2000年以后。气候变暖所致采暖节能率为7%,这对节约能源、减少大气污染和温室气体排放较为有利。  相似文献   

Evidence for significant clockwise rotations of the Korean Peninsula during Cretaceous   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Youn Soo Lee  Hyun-Chul Han  Jae Ha Hwang  Weon-Seo Kee  Bok Chul Kim 《Gondwana Research》2011,20(4):904-918

In an effort to evaluate the Cretaceous magnetostratigraphy for the Korean Peninsula and to establish the tectonic coherence of its various elements, we collected paleomagnetic data from 121 samples from 20 sites within the Chilgok Formation (108.3–109.9 Ma) in the Gyeongsang Basin. Together with previously published data, we evaluate the results from a total of 163 sites in the basin.We combine our age model with results from recent stratigraphic, paleomagnetic and radiometric geochemical studies. In this study, we found that two distinct declination shifts decrease with younging direction, indicating two clockwise rotational events of the Korean Peninsula with respect to the Eurasia continent. The earlier event took place during 130–100 Ma (Phase I, newly termed “Goguryeo Disturbance”) and a later one during 80–50 Ma (Phase III, belonging to “Bulguksa Orogeny”). The mean rotation rate in the interval from 115.2 to 103.8 Ma (Phase I) is about 0.74°/Ma, while the rate from 90.9 to 79.8 Ma (Phase II) is 0.19°/Ma. Based on paleolatitude change during Phase I, we infer that the Korean Peninsula (eastern part of the Sino-Korea Block) migrated southward about 300 km after the complete amalgamation of the Sino-Korea Block into the Eurasian continent resulting in N–S compression within the Korean peninsula and Manchuria. Large-scale strike-slip faults (e.g., Tan-Lu Fault, Okcheon Boundary Fault) were probably rejuvenated in the Sino-Korea Block during Phase I.  相似文献   

Evidence of gas hydrate from downhole logging data in the Ulleung Basin, East Sea   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Gil Young Kim  Bo Yeon Yi  Dong Geun Yoo  Byong Jae Ryu  Michael Riedel 《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2011,28(10):1979-1985

The Gas Hydrate Research and Development Organization (GHDO) of Korea successfully accomplished both coring (hydraulic piston and pressure coring) and logging (logging-while-drilling, LWD, and wireline logging) to investigate the presence of gas hydrate during the first deep drilling expedition in the Ulleung Basin, East Sea of Korea (referred to as UBGH1) in 2007. The LWD data from two sites (UBGH1-9, UBGH1-10) showed elevated electrical resistivity (>80 Ω-m) and P-wave velocity (>2000 m/s) values indicating the presence of gas hydrate. During the coring period, the richest gas hydrate accumulation was discovered at these intervals. Based on log data, the occurrence of gas hydrate is primarily controlled by the presence of fractures. The gas hydrate saturation calculated using Archie’s relation shows greater than 60% (as high as ∼90%) of the pore space, although Archie’s equation typically overestimates gas hydrate saturation in near-vertical fractures. The saturation of gas hydrate is also estimated using the modified Biot-Gassmann theory (BGTL) by Lee and Collett (2006). The saturation values estimated rom BGTL are much lower than those calculated from Archie’s equation. Based on log data, the hydrate-bearing sediment section is approximately 70 m (UBGH1-9) to 130 m (UBGH1-10) in thickness at these two sites. This was further directly confirmed by the recovery of gas hydrate samples and pore water freshening collected from deep drilling core during the expedition. LWD data also strongly support the interpretation of the seismic gas hydrate indicators (e.g., vent or chimney structures and bottom-simulating reflectors), which imply the probability of widespread gas hydrate presence in the Ulleung Basin.  相似文献   

Tracing origins of sewage and organic matter using dissolved sterols in Masan and Haengam Bay,Korea     

Hyo Jin Lee  Sang Hee Hong  Moonkoo Kim  Sung Yong Ha  Soon Mo An  Won Joon Shim 《Ocean Science Journal》2011,46(2):95-103

Masan and Haengam Bays in Korea are highly polluted and semi-enclosed. Domestic and industrial effluents are directly or indirectly discharged into the bays through sewage treatment plants (STP) and creeks. In this study, 15 dissolved sterol compounds were determined in order to understand their sources and relative contribution. Freshwater samples were taken from 13 creeks and at two STP sites on a monthly basis. Total dissolved sterol concentrations ranged from 993 to 4158 ng/L. The concentrations of sterols in winter were higher than in summer. Among the sterols analyzed, cholesterol, β-sitosterol, coprostanol and cholestanone were major compounds in creek water. Seawater samples were concurrently collected at 21 stations in Masan Bay. Total sterol concentrations ranged 118–6,956 ng/L. Inner bay showed high concentrations of sterols in summer, while outer bay showed high sterol concentrations in winter. Among the sterols, cholesterol, β-sitosterol and brassicasterol were major compounds in seawater. In order to examine the contribution of urban sewage, the concentration of coprostanol and fecal sterol ratios were calculated. Most of the creek water, inner bay and near STP outlet samples were affected by sewage. Terrestrial organic matters accounted for a high proportion of dissolved organic matter origin. Fecal origins were relatively high in the inner bay areas and in the STP outlet, while sterols of marine origin were high in the outer bay areas.  相似文献   

Comparison of radiocarbon and OSL dating methods for a Late Quaternary sediment core from Lake Ulaan,Mongolia     

Min Kyung Lee  Yong Il Lee  Hyoun Soo Lim  Jae Il Lee  Jeong Heon Choi  Ho Il Yoon 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2011,45(2):127-135

Both radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating methods were applied to test their suitability for establishing a chronology of arid-zone lacustrine sediments using a 5.88-m-long core drilled from Lake Ulaan, southern Mongolia. Although the radiocarbon and OSL ages agree in some samples, the radiocarbon ages are older than the corresponding OSL ages at the 550-cm depth horizon (late Pleistocene) and in the 100–300-cm interval (early to late Holocene). In the early to late Holocene, radiocarbon ages are consistently older than OSL ages by 4,100–5,800 years, and in the late Pleistocene by 2,700–3,000 years. Grain-size analysis of early to late Holocene sediments and one late Pleistocene sediment sample (550-cm depth) indicates that eolian processes were the dominant sediment-transport mechanism. Also, two late Pleistocene sediments samples (from 400- to 500-cm depths) are interpreted to have been deposited by both eolian and glaciofluvial processes. Accordingly, the radiocarbon ages that were older than the corresponding OSL ages during the Holocene seem to have been a consequence of the influx of ¹⁴C-deficient carbon delivered from adjacent soils and Paleozoic carbonate rocks by the westerly winds, a process that is also active today. In addition to the input of old reworked carbon by eolian processes, the late Pleistocene sediments were also influenced by old carbon delivered by deglacial meltwater. The results of this study suggest that when eolian sediment transport is suspected, especially in lakes of arid environments, the OSL dating method is superior to the radiocarbon dating method, as it eliminates a common ‘old-carbon’ error problem.  相似文献   

Hydrological characteristics of karstic groundwater in the northeast Viet Nam as studied by isotopic techniques   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Dang Duc Nhan  Nguyen Van Lam  Ha Chu Ha Long  Dao Dinh Thuan  Dang Anh Minh  Vo Thi Anh 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2013,70(2):521-529

The stable water isotopic composition (δ²H and δ¹⁸Ο), tritium (³H) activity, dissolved organic carbon, alkalinity, as well as the composition of carbon 13 (δ¹³C) in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) of 36 water samples taken from 16 resurgences in the northeast provinces of Viet Nam in the dry (Mar 2008) and rainy (June 2008) seasons were analyzed to elucidate hydrological characteristics of the karstic aquifers in the area. The stable water isotopic composition of the water samples collected clearly demonstrated that the karstic groundwater in the region was recharged from the local meteorological water. The tritium activity in the samples was found to be in between 3 and 4 TU, falling in the range of the ³H activity in the local precipitation and thus meaning that the traveling of recharge water to the resurgences was very short. Concentrated and diffuse allogenic recharges seem to be important sources of karstic groundwater in the study region. Water in the karstic aquifers could be classified into three types as: (a) water from karstic areas with dense vegetation cover that causes DIC be depleted in carbon 13 (¹³δ<?12‰ vs. Pee Dee Belemnite standard of Vienna, VPDB); (b) water from karstic areas with poor vegetation cover that originates DIC with carbon 13 composition ranging from ?11 to ?12‰; and (c) surface water from lakes, springs and rivers that has DIC with enriched carbon 13 (δ¹³C >?10‰). This implies that there are several sources of carbon dioxide contributing to the DIC in water of the karstic aquifers in the study region. Among other potential sources, the atmospheric CO₂, CO₂ from carbonate rock dissolution, biomineralization of soil organic matters and plant roots respiration seem to be important sources of the DIC in the waters of this region. The results show high vulnerability towards anthropogenic contaminants of karstic groundwater in the study region.  相似文献   

Composition and source identification of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in mangrove sediments of Peninsular Malaysia: indication of anthropogenic input   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Muhammad Raza  Mohamad Pauzi Zakaria  Nor Rasidah Hashim  Un Hyuk Yim  Narayanan Kannan  Sung Yong Ha 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2013,70(6):2425-2436

This is a comprehensive study of the composition, origin and sources of specific polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in sediments of mangrove estuary in the western part of Peninsular Malaysia. Mangrove sediments were analyzed for 17 PAHs by gas chromatography–mass spectrometry. Total PAH concentrations in the sediments ranged from 20 to 112 ng/g on a dry-weight basis. High molecular weight PAHs were abundant in the sediments. Parent PAH ratios revealed that pyrogenic input has important contribution to the sedimentary PAHs. Ratios of alkylated PAHs indicate that the sedimentary PAHs were influenced by petrogenic PAHs, which implies that petrogenic input has contribution to the sedimentary PAHs but that it is not a major factor in distribution of PAHs within the estuary. Combustion-derived PAHs show a positive and very strong correlation with total PAHs (R ² = 0.926, p < 0.05). Total methylphenanthrenes show very weak correlation with total PAHs (R ² = 0.0928, p < 0.05). The PAH concentrations were found to increase with distance from the upstream of the estuary to the coastal area of the Straits of Malacca. For the assessment of sediment contamination using biological thresholds, none of the individual studied PAH compounds exceeded the values of the effect range low–effect range median guideline and the threshold effects level–probable effects level guideline. This study demonstrates that the sediments of the mangrove ecosystem facing the Straits of Malacca and Sumatra are influenced by anthropogenic PAH inputs as a result of human activities such as biomass burning, vehicle emissions and boating activities.  相似文献