Natural hazards in Australia: droughts   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Anthony S. Kiem  Fiona Johnson  Seth Westra  Albert van Dijk  Jason P. Evans  Alison O’Donnell  Alexandra Rouillard  Cameron Barr  Jonathan Tyler  Mark Thyer  Doerte Jakob  Fitsum Woldemeskel  Bellie Sivakumar  Raj Mehrotra 《Climatic change》2016,139(1):37-54

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Value of decadal climate variability information for agriculture in the Missouri River basin     

Mario Andres Fernandez  Pei Huang  Bruce McCarl  Vikram Mehta 《Climatic change》2016,139(3-4):517-533

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Natural hazards in Australia: floods     

Fiona Johnson  Christopher J. White  Albert van Dijk  Marie Ekstrom  Jason P. Evans  Dörte Jakob  Anthony S. Kiem  Michael Leonard  Alexandra Rouillard  Seth Westra 《Climatic change》2016,139(1):21-35

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End member and Bayesian mixing models consistently indicate near-surface flowpath dominance in a pristine humid tropical rainforest     

Christian Birkel  Alicia Correa Barahona  Clément Duvert  Sebastián Granados Bolaños  Andres Chavarría Palma  Ana Maria Durán Quesada  Ricardo Sánchez Murillo  Harald Biester 《水文研究》2021,35(4):e14153

The impacts of forest conversion on runoff generation in the tropics have received much interest, but scientific progress is still hampered by challenging fieldwork conditions and limited knowledge about runoff mechanisms. Here, we assessed the runoff generation, flow paths and water source dynamics of a pristine rainforest catchment in Costa Rica using end member mixing analysis (EMMA) and a Bayesian mixing model (MixSIAR). Geochemical tracer data collected over a 4-week field campaign were combined with tritium data used to assess potential deeper groundwater flow pathways to the perennial stream. The streamflow composition was best captured using three end-members, namely throughfall, shallow (5–15 cm) and deeper (15–50 cm) soil water. We estimated the end-member contributions to the main stream and two tributaries using the two mixing approaches and found good agreement between results obtained from EMMA and MixSIAR. The system was overwhelmingly dominated by near-surface sources, with little evidence for deeper and older groundwater as tritium-derived baseflow mean transit time was between 2.0 and 4.4 years. The shallow soil flow pathway dominated streamflow contributions in the main stream (median 39% and 49% based on EMMA and MixSIAR, respectively), followed by the deeper soil (32% and 31%) and throughfall (25% and 19%). The two tributaries had even greater shallow soil water contributions relative to the main stream (83% and 74% for tributary A and 42% and 63% for tributary B). Tributary B had no detectable deep soil water contribution, reflecting the morphology of the hillslope (steeper slopes, shallower soils and lower vegetation density compared to hillslope A). Despite the short sampling campaign and associated uncertainties, this study allowed to thoroughly assess runoff generation mechanisms in a humid tropical catchment. Our results also provide a first comparison of two increasingly used mixing models and suggest that EMMA and MixSIAR yield comparable estimates of water source partitioning in this tropical, volcanic rainforest environment.  相似文献   

Highly physical penumbra solar radiation pressure modeling with atmospheric effects     

Robert Robertson  Jakob Flury  Tamara Bandikova  Manuel Schilling 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2015,123(2):169-202

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Modeling the hydro-mechanical responses of strip and circular punch loadings on water-saturated collapsible geomaterials   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

WaiChing Sun  Qiushi Chen  Jakob T. Ostien 《Acta Geotechnica》2014,9(5):903-934

A stabilized enhanced strain finite element procedure for poromechanics is fully integrated with an elasto-plastic cap model to simulate the hydro-mechanical interactions of fluid-infiltrating porous rocks with associative and non-associative plastic flow. We present a quantitative analysis on how macroscopic plastic volumetric response caused by pore collapse and grain rearrangement affects the seepage of pore fluid, and vice versa. Results of finite element simulations imply that the dissipation of excess pore pressure may significantly affect the stress path and thus alter the volumetric plastic responses.  相似文献   

AUS: Anisotropic undrained shear strength model for clays     

Kristian Krabbenhøft  Sergio Andres Galindo-Torres  Xue Zhang  Jørgen Krabbenhøft 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2019,43(17):2652-2666

A total stress model applicable to clays under undrained conditions is presented. The model involves three strength parameters: the undrained shear strengths in triaxial compression, triaxial extension, and simple shear. The amount of physical anisotropy implied by the model is a function of the relative magnitude of these three strengths assuming a Mises-type plastic potential. Elastoplastic deformation characteristics below failure are accounted for by a hardening law requiring two additional parameters that can be related to the axial strains halfway to failure in triaxial compression and extension. Finally, elasticity is accounted for by Hooke law. The result is a relatively simple model whose parameters can all be inferred directly from a combination of in situ and standard undrained laboratory tests. The model is applied to a problem involving the horizontal loading of a monopile foundation for which full scale tests have been previously conducted. The model shows good agreement with the measured data.  相似文献   

Modelling changes in suspended sediment from forest road surfaces in a coastal watershed of British Columbia          下载免费PDF全文

H. Andres Araujo  Ashley Page  Andrew B. Cooper  Jeremy Venditti  Erland MacIsaac  Marwan A. Hassan  Duncan Knowler 《水文研究》2014,28(18):4914-4927

Erosion from logging road surfaces, cut slopes, banks, and ditches represents a chronic source of sediment input to streams that can degrade aquatic habitats. Road surface erosion is of particular concern because the magnitude of sediment generation when traffic levels are high can be large. Current models for predicting sediment production from roads require information on area‐specific sediment delivery, which is not often available. Here, we developed a model to quantify suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) generated by forest roads surfaces under different conditions of use and density. This model is designed for a typical medium‐size coastal watershed of British Columbia or the American Pacific Northwest, and was applied to the Chilliwack River watershed as a case study. The results illustrate that intensive use of forest roads combined with high road density can increase the number of extreme sedimentation events over a predetermined threshold. A comparison of the effects of road density and the level of road use suggests that the level of road use is more important than the road density for the generation of fine sediment from road surfaces. However, the model omits the impact of roads on mass movements in a watershed, which represent a major source of sediment in steep watersheds, so the effect of road density is likely more substantial than the model predicts. The model is an attempt to overcome field data limitations by using an empirical relation between SSC and traffic variables, and presents a starting point for more intensive field studies that could be used to validate it. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Is the forest conversion to pasture affecting the hydrological response of Amazonian catchments? Signals in the Ji‐Paraná Basin     

Daniel Andres Rodriguez  Javier Tomasella  Claudia Linhares 《水文研究》2010,24(10):1254-1269

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Palaeoglaciology of Bayan Har Shan,NE Tibetan Plateau: exposure ages reveal a missing LGM expansion     

Jakob Heyman  Arjen P. Stroeven  Marc W. Caffee  Clas Hättestrand  Jonathan M. Harbor  Yingkui Li  Helena Alexanderson  Liping Zhou  Alun Hubbard 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(15-16):1988-2001

The Bayan Har Shan, a prominent upland area in the northeastern sector of the Tibetan Plateau, hosts an extensive glacial geological record. To reconstruct its palaeoglaciology we have determined ¹⁰Be exposure ages based on 67 samples from boulders, surface pebbles, and sediment sections in conjunction with studies of the glacial geology (remote sensing and field studies) and numerical glacier modelling. Exposure ages from moraines and glacial sediments in Bayan Har Shan range from 3 ka to 129 ka, with a large disparity in exposure ages for individual sites and within the recognised four morphostratigraphical groups. The exposure age disparity cannot be explained by differences in inheritance without using unrealistic assumptions but it can be explained by differences in post-depositional shielding which produces exposure ages younger than the deglaciation age. We present a palaeoglaciological time-slice reconstruction in which the most restricted glaciation, with glaciers less than 10 km long, occurred before 40–65 ka. More extensive glaciations occurred before 60–100 ka and 95–165 ka. Maximum glaciation is poorly constrained but probably even older. The Bayan Har Shan exposure age dataset indicates that glaciers on the northeastern Tibetan Plateau have remained surprisingly restricted for at least 40 ka, including the global last glacial maximum (LGM). This case of a missing LGM is further supported by high-resolution glacier modelling experiments.  相似文献