Landslide temporal analysis and susceptibility assessment as bases for landslide mitigation, Machu Picchu, Peru     

Jan Klimeš 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2013,70(2):913-925

Multi-temporal landslide occurrence information acquired through aerial photo interpretation and field mapping was used to assess occurrence frequencies on the slopes around the UNESCO cultural world heritage site of Machu Picchu, Peru. This showed that the coarse time resolution of the historical landslide information may lead to inaccurate interpretations regarding landslide occurrence frequencies in some parts of the study area. In addition, the assumption that the past landslide frequency can be used to describe the future landslide occurrence was not proved in the study area. Thereafter, unique conditional analyses were undertaken to assess landslide susceptibility using a limited number of preparatory factor maps. It showed that large majority of the Inca City is located on least susceptible areas within the region. The results of the susceptibility assessment combined with landslide occurrence frequencies may serve as a basis for the landslide hazard mitigation in the studied area. For these purposes, pixel-based susceptibility maps were generalized into expert-defined landslide management units. These units provide site managers with easily understandable and applicable hence reliable information about future landslide occurrences. An approach describing usage of the resulting susceptibility maps for onsite mitigation purposes was described with respect to the needs of Machu Picchu site managers.  相似文献   

Thermal, mechanical and chemical influences on the performance of optical fibres for distributed temperature sensing in a hot geothermal well   总被引：2，自引：2，他引：0  

Thomas Reinsch  Jan Henninges  Ragnar Ásmundsson 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2013,70(8):3465-3480

Structural well-bore integrity is an important issue for sustainable provision of geothermal energy. Raman scattering based fibre optic distributed temperature sensing (DTS) can help to monitor the status of a well and therefore help to optimize expensive work-over activities. This study reports on the installation of a fibre-optic cable in the cemented annulus behind the anchor casing in the high temperature geothermal well HE-53, Hellisheiði geothermal field, SW Iceland. Although the cable has been damaged during the installation, temperature data could be acquired during the entire length of installation down to 261.3 m. Temperature measurements were performed during the installation in spring 2009, during the onset of a flow test in summer 2009 and after a 8.5 month shut-in period in summer 2010. During the flow test, maximum temperatures of 230 °C were measured after 2 weeks fluid production. Using optical time domain reflectometry (OTDR), attenuation measurements at 850 and 1,300 nm enabled to identify mechanical, thermal, and chemical degradation along the optical fibre. The observed degradation led to erroneous temperature readings and limits, due to the optical budget of the DTS system, the accessible length of the fibre. The characteristics and the influence of the different degradation mechanisms on the accuracy of the DTS measurements are discussed and recommendations for an optimized installation are given.  相似文献   

The effect of health benefits on climate change mitigation policies     

Masako Ikefuji  Jan R. Magnus  Hiroaki Sakamoto 《Climatic change》2014,126(1-2):229-243

This paper studies the interplay between climate, health, and the economy in a stylized world with eleven heterogeneous regions, with special emphasis on USA, Europe, China, India, and Africa. We introduce health impacts into a simple economic integrated assessment model where both the local cooling effect of SO ₂ and the global warming effect of CO ₂ are endogenous, and investigate how these factors affect the equilibrium path. Regions do not respond in the same way to climate change. In particular, emission abatement rates and health costs depend on the economic and geographical characteristics of each region. Two policy scenarios are considered, Nash and Optimal, for which we present both global and regional results. Results for Africa and China are highlighted.  相似文献   

Land-use transition for bioenergy and climate stabilization: model comparison of drivers,impacts and interactions with other land use based mitigation options   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Alexander Popp  Steven K. Rose  Katherine Calvin  Detlef P. Van Vuuren  Jan Phillip Dietrich  Marshall Wise  Elke Stehfest  Florian Humpenöder  Page Kyle  Jasper Van Vliet  Nico Bauer  Hermann Lotze-Campen  David Klein  Elmar Kriegler 《Climatic change》2014,123(3-4):495-509

In this article, we evaluate and compare results from three integrated assessment models (GCAM, IMAGE, and ReMIND/MAgPIE) regarding the drivers and impacts of bioenergy production on the global land system. The considered model frameworks employ linked energy, economy, climate and land use modules. By the help of these linkages the direct competition of bioenergy with other energy technology options for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation, based on economic costs and GHG emissions from bioenergy production, has been taken into account. Our results indicate that dedicated bioenergy crops and biomass residues form a potentially important and cost-effective input into the energy system. At the same time, however, the results differ strongly in terms of deployment rates, feedstock composition and land-use and greenhouse gas implications. The current paper adds to earlier work by specific looking into model differences with respect to the land-use component that could contribute to the noted differences in results, including land cover allocation, land use constraints, energy crop yields, and non-bioenergy land mitigation options modeled. In scenarios without climate change mitigation, bioenergy cropland represents 10–18 % of total cropland by 2100 across the different models, and boosts cropland expansion at the expense of carbon richer ecosystems. Therefore, associated emissions from land-use change and agricultural intensification as a result of bio-energy use range from 14 and 113 Gt CO2-eq cumulatively through 2100. Under climate policy, bioenergy cropland increases to 24–36 % of total cropland by 2100.  相似文献   

The value of bioenergy in low stabilization scenarios: an assessment using REMIND-MAgPIE     

David Klein  Gunnar Luderer  Elmar Kriegler  Jessica Strefler  Nico Bauer  Marian Leimbach  Alexander Popp  Jan Philipp Dietrich  Florian Humpenöder  Hermann Lotze-Campen  Ottmar Edenhofer 《Climatic change》2014,123(3-4):705-718

This study investigates the use of bioenergy for achieving stringent climate stabilization targets and it analyzes the economic drivers behind the choice of bioenergy technologies. We apply the integrated assessment framework REMIND-MAgPIE to show that bioenergy, particularly if combined with carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a crucial mitigation option with high deployment levels and high technology value. If CCS is available, bioenergy is exclusively used with CCS. We find that the ability of bioenergy to provide negative emissions gives rise to a strong nexus between biomass prices and carbon prices. Ambitious climate policy could result in bioenergy prices of 70 $/GJ (or even 430 $/GJ if bioenergy potential is limited to 100 EJ/year), which indicates a strong demand for bioenergy. For low stabilization scenarios with BECCS availability, we find that the carbon value of biomass tends to exceed its pure energy value. Therefore, the driving factor behind investments into bioenergy conversion capacities for electricity and hydrogen production are the revenues generated from negative emissions, rather than from energy production. However, in REMIND modern bioenergy is predominantly used to produce low-carbon fuels, since the transport sector has significantly fewer low-carbon alternatives to biofuels than the power sector. Since negative emissions increase the amount of permissible emissions from fossil fuels, given a climate target, bioenergy acts as a complement to fossils rather than a substitute. This makes the short-term and long-term deployment of fossil fuels dependent on the long-term availability of BECCS.  相似文献   

Grain size distribution of soils within the Cordillera Blanca,Peru: An indicator of basic mechanical properties for slope stability evaluation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Jan NOVOTNY  Jan KLIME 《山地科学学报》2014,11(3):563-577

This paper presents results of a study on the mechanical properties of sandy and gravely soils within the Cordillera Blanca, Peru. The soils were divided into groups according to their origin （glacial, fluvial, or debris flow）. The grain size distribution of forty three soil samples was used to classify the soils according to the scheme of the Unified Soil Classification System （USCS）. These distributions have then been used to estimate shear strength and hydraulic properties of the soils. There are clear differences between the soils which reflect their divergent origins. The glacial soils normally fit within one of two distinctive groups according to the proportion of fines （Group A, 7%-21.5%; Group B, 21%-65%）. The estimation of shear strength at constant volume friction angle and peak shear strength of the glacial sediments with low content of fines was made using published data relating to the measured shear strength characteristics of soils with similar origins and grain size distributions. The estimated values were supported by measurements of the angle of repose taken from fourteen samples from two moraines and by shear tests on samples from one locality. The results of the grain size distribution werealso used to estimate the average hydraulic conductivity using the empirical Hazen formula which results were verified by field infiltration tests at two localities.  相似文献   

Monitoring precipitable water vapor in real-time using global navigation satellite systems     

Seung-Woo Lee  Jan Kouba  Bob Schutz  Do Hyeong Kim  Young Jae Lee 《Journal of Geodesy》2013,87(10-12):923-934

This paper addresses real-time monitoring of the precipitable water vapor (PWV) from GNSS measurements and presents some results obtained from 6-month long GNSS PWV experiments using international and domestic GNSS networks. In the real-time GNSS PWV monitoring system a server/client structure is employed to facilitate formation of PWV networks and single-differenced GNSS measurements are utilized to mitigate errors in GNSS satellites’ orbits and clocks. An issue relating to baseline length between the server and clients is discussed in detail and as a result the PWV monitor is configured to perform in two modes depending on the baseline length. The server estimates sequentially the zenith wet delay of the individual stations, which is then converted into the PWV of the stations. We evaluate system performance by comparing the real-time PWV solution with reference solutions including meteorological measurements obtained with radiosondes and deferred-time precision GNSS PWV solutions. Results showed that the standard deviation of difference between the real-time PWV and the reference solutions ranged from 2.1 to 3.4 mm in PWV for a 6-month long comparison, which was improved to 1.4 to 2.9 mm by reducing comparison period to 20 days in winter.  相似文献   

King George Island GIS (KGIS) project of WGGGI —A state of the art     

Jan Cisak 《地球空间信息科学学报》2013,16(2):70-74

The presentation contains information on existing geodetic data for King George Island obtained from the questionnaires distributed among the members of the WGGGI.  相似文献   

Seismic event near Jarocin (Poland)     

Grzegorz Lizurek  Beata Plesiewicz  Pawe? Wiejacz  Jan Wiszniowski  Jacek Trojanowski 《Acta Geophysica》2013,61(1):26-36

The earthquake of magnitude M _L = 3:8 (EMSC) took place on Friday, 6 January 2012, north-east of the town of Jarocin in Wielkopolska Region, Poland. The only historical information about past earthquakes in the region was found in the diary from 1824; apart of it, there was a seismic event noticed in the vicinity of Wielkopolska in 1606 (Pagaczewski 1982). The scope of this paper is to describe the 6 January 2012 event in view of instrumental seismology, macroseismic data analysis and known tectonics of the region, which should be useful in future seismic hazard analysis of Poland.  相似文献   

Relationships between the North Atlantic Oscillation index and temperatures in Europe in global climate models     

Romana Beranová  Jan Kyselý 《Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica》2013,57(1):138-153

The study evaluates relationships between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and winter temperatures (including indices of extremes) over Europe in an ensemble of transient simulations of current global climate models (GCMs). We focus on identification of areas in which the NAO index is linked to winter temperatures and temperature extremes in simulations of the recent climate (1961–2000), and evaluate how these relationships change in climate change scenarios for the late 21st century (2071–2100). Most GCMs are able to reproduce main features of the observed links. The NAO index is more important for cold than warm extremes, which is also reproduced by the GCMs. However, all GCMs underestimate the magnitude of the NAO influence on cold extremes when averaged over northern and western Europe. For future scenarios, the links between the NAO and temperatures are mostly analogous to those in the recent climate, except for one GCM (CM3) in which the influence of the NAO on temperature almost disappears over whole Europe. This suggests that future scenarios from this particular GCM should be evaluated with caution. The NAO index is found to represent a useful covariate that explains an important fraction of variability of cold extremes in winter, and its incorporation into extreme value models for daily temperatures (and their possible changes under climate change) may improve performance of these models and reliability of estimates of extremes and their uncertainty.  相似文献