Refining the ice flow chronology and subglacial dynamics across the migrating Labrador Divide of the Laurentide Ice Sheet with age constraints on deglaciation     

Jessey M. Rice  Martin Ross  Roger C. Paulen  Samuel E. Kelley  Jason P. Briner  Christina M. Neudorf  Olav B. Lian 《第四纪科学杂志》2019,34(7):519-535

The Laurentide Ice Sheet was characterized by a dynamic polythermal base. However, important data and knowledge gaps have led to contrasting reconstructions in areas such as the Labrador Ice Divide. In this study, detailed fieldwork was conducted at the southeastern edge of a major landform boundary to resolve the relative ice flow chronology and constrain the evolution of the subglacial dynamics, including the migration and collapse of the Labrador Ice Divide. Surficial mapping and analysis of 94 outcrop‐scale ice flow indicators were used to develop a relative ice flow chronology. ¹⁰Be exposure ages were used with optical ages to confine the timing of deglaciation within the study area. Four phases of ice flow were identified. Flow 1 was a northeasterly ice flow preserved under non‐erosive subglacial conditions associated with the development of an ice divide. Flow 2 was a northwest ice flow, which we correlate to the Ungava Bay Ice Stream and led to a westward migration of the ice divide, preserving Flow 2 features and resulting in Flow 3's eastward‐trending indicators. Flow 4 is limited to sparse fine striations within and around the regional uplands. The new optical ages and ¹⁰Be exposure ages add to the regional geochronology dataset, which further constrains the timing of ice margin retreat in the area to around 8.0 ka. Copyright © 2019 The Authors. Journal of Quaternary Science Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献   

Is it sound policy or fast policy? Practitioners’ perspectives on the role of place branding in local economic development     

Evan Cleave  Richard Sadler  Jason Gilliland 《Urban geography》2017,38(8):1133-1157

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Stable carbon isotopes (δ<Superscript>13</Superscript>C) of total organic carbon and long-chain <Emphasis Type="Italic">n</Emphasis>-alkanes as proxies for climate and environmental change in a sediment core from Lake Petén-Itzá, Guatemala     

Jennifer L. Mays  Mark Brenner  Jason H. Curtis  Kathryn V. Curtis  David A. Hodell  Alex Correa-Metrio  Jaime Escobar  Andrea L. Dutton  Andrew R. Zimmerman  Thomas P. Guilderson 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2017,57(4):307-319

Sediment core PI-6 from Lake Petén Itzá, Guatemala, possesses an ~85-ka record of climate and environmental change from lowland Central America. Variations in sediment lithology suggest large and abrupt changes in precipitation during the last glacial and deglacial periods, and into the early Holocene. We measured stable carbon isotope ratios of total organic carbon and long-chain n-alkanes from the core, the latter representing a largely allochthonous (terrestrial) source of organic matter, to reveal past shifts in the relative proportion of C₃–C₄ terrestrial biomass. We sought to test whether stable carbon isotope results were consistent with other paleoclimate proxies measured in the PI-6 core, and if extraction and isotope analysis of n-alkanes is warranted. The largest δ¹³C variations are associated with Heinrich Events. Carbon isotope values in sediments deposited during the last glacial maximum indicate moderate precipitation with little fluctuation. The deglacial was a period of pronounced climate variability, e.g. a relatively warm and moist Bølling–Allerød, but a cool and dry Younger Dryas. Arid periods of the deglacial were inferred from samples with high δ¹³C values in total organic carbon, which reflect times of greater proportions of C₄ plants. These inferences are supported by stable isotope measurements on ostracod shells and relative abundance of grass pollen from the same depths in core PI-6. Similar trends in carbon stable isotopes measured on bulk organic carbon and n-alkanes suggest that carbon isotope measures on bulk organic carbon in sediments from this lake are sufficient to infer past climate-driven shifts in local vegetation.  相似文献   

The impacts avoided with a 1.5 °C climate target: a global and regional assessment     

Nigel W. Arnell  Jason A. Lowe  Ben Lloyd-Hughes  Timothy J. Osborn 《Climatic change》2018,147(1-2):61-76

The 2015 Paris Agreement commits countries to pursue efforts to limit the increase in global mean temperature to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. We assess the consequences of achieving this target in 2100 for the impacts that are avoided, using several indicators of impact (exposure to drought, river flooding, heat waves and demands for heating and cooling energy). The proportion of impacts that are avoided is not simply equal to the proportional reduction in temperature. At the global scale, the median proportion of projected impacts avoided by the 1.5 °C target relative to a rise of 4 °C ranges between 62 and 95% across sectors: the greatest reduction is for heat wave impacts. The 1.5 °C target results in impacts that would be between 27 and 62% lower than with the 2 °C target. For each indicator, there are differences in the proportions of impacts avoided between regions depending on exposure and the regional changes in climate (particularly precipitation). Uncertainty in the proportion of impacts that are avoided for a specific sector depends on the range in the shape of the relationship between global temperature change and impact, and this varies between sectors.  相似文献   

Simultaneous X-ray and IR variability in the quasar 3C 273     

Ian M  Hardy  Anthony Lawson  rew Newsam  Alan Marscher  Ian Robson  Jason Stevens 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1999,310(2):571-576

From a combination of high-quality X-ray observations from the NASA Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer ( RXTE ) and IR observations from the UK Infrared Telescope (UKIRT) we show that the medium-energy X-ray (3–20 keV) and near-IR fluxes in the quasar 3C 273 are highly correlated. It is widely believed that the X-ray emission in quasars like 3C 273 arises from Compton scattering of low-energy seed photons, and our observations provide the first reliable detection of correlated variations in 3C 273 between the X-ray band and any lower energy band. For a realistic electron distribution we demonstrate that it is probable that each decade of the seed-photon distribution from the mm to IR wavebands contributes roughly equally to the medium-energy X-ray flux. However, the expected mm variations are too small to be detected above the noise, probably explaining the lack of success of previous searches for a correlation between X-ray and mm variations. In addition, we show that the IR leads the X-rays by  0.75±0.25 d  . These observations rule out the 'External Compton' emission process for the production of the X-rays.  相似文献   

湖泊研究的新工具和新视野:第58届IAGLR年会观察     

李刚  Jason D. Stockwell  J. Ellen Marsden  徐耀阳 《湖泊科学》2015,27(4):755-756

<正>以中国为代表的发展中国家城镇化进程正在快速推进,前所未有地改变以欧美发达国家为主体的全球城镇发展格局.与此同时,与城镇化进程相关联的大气、土壤和水体等动植物栖息生境和人类生存环境正发生着深刻变化,并且日益受到社会的普遍关注和广泛重视.湖泊作为一类典型的淡水生境,因具有洪水调蓄、多样性维护、物质循环、环境美化和气候调节等自然生态功能以及供水、水产品生产、休闲娱乐和文化美学等社会经济服务功能,其功能与城镇可持续发展和人类社会文明进步息息相关.为此,本文简要回顾了第  相似文献   

Reducing uncertainty in stochastic streamflow generation and reservoir sizing by combining observed,reconstructed and projected streamflow     

Jason?PatskoskiEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  A.?Sankarasubramanian 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(4):1065-1083

Reservoir sizing is one of the most important aspects of water resources engineering as the storage in a reservoir must be sufficient to supply water during extended droughts. Typically, observed streamflow is used to stochastically generate multiple realizations of streamflow to estimate the required storage based on the Sequent Peak Algorithm (SQP). The main limitation in this approach is that the parameters of the stochastic model are purely derived from the observed record (limited to less than 80 years of data) which does not have information related to prehistoric droughts. Further, reservoir sizing is typically estimated to meet future increase in water demand, and there is no guarantee that future streamflow over the planning period will be representative of past streamflow records. In this context, reconstructed streamflow records, usually estimated based on tree ring chronologies, provide better estimates of prehistoric droughts, and future streamflow records over the planning period could be obtained from general circulation models (GCMs) which provide 30 year near-term climate change projections. In this study, we developed paleo streamflow records and future streamflow records for 30 years are obtained by forcing the projected precipitation and temperature from the GCMs over a lumped watershed model. We propose combining observed, reconstructed and projected streamflows to generate synthetic streamflow records using a Bayesian framework that provides the posterior distribution of reservoir storage estimates. The performance of the Bayesian framework is compared to a traditional stochastic streamflow generation approach. Findings based on the split-sample validation show that the Bayesian approach yielded generated streamflow traces more representative of future streamflow conditions than the traditional stochastic approach thereby, reducing uncertainty on storage estimates corresponding to higher reliabilities. Potential strategies for improving future streamflow projections and its utility in reservoir sizing and capacity expansion projects are also discussed.  相似文献   

Experimental validation of seismic retrofit solutions for URM chimneys     

Marta Giaretton  Jason M. Ingham  Dmytro Dizhur 《Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering》2018,16(1):295-313

Clay-brick unreinforced masonry (URM) chimneys are a common architectural feature of vintage domestic and commercial URM and timber-framed buildings widely encountered worldwide. URM chimneys include a cantilevered appendage above the roofline that during earthquakes-induced shaking is susceptible to significant damage and collapse, which can result in fatalities, injuries, and property damage. To mitigate this risk, many vintage URM chimneys are removed, braced, or eventually replaced with modern alternatives. The earthquake performance of 15,400 URM chimneys damaged during the 2010/2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence was investigated using a photographic database and insurance claims data. The widespread damage and failure of a large proportion of retrofitted chimneys was the impetus for an experimental shake-table testing campaign that was undertaken to assess the performance of five prototypical URM chimneys in their as-built and retrofitted conditions. Cost-effective retrofit techniques with low aesthetic impact, including the use of near surface mounted carbon-fibre reinforced polymer strips and post-tensioning, were investigated. Tested chimneys were constructed to replicate the most commonly encountered geometric characteristics and construction details collected during an in-field pilot survey of 351 undamaged vintage URM chimneys.  相似文献   

The likelihood of having a household emergency plan: understanding factors in the US context     

Rivera  Jason D. 《Natural Hazards》2020,104(2):1331-1343

Natural Hazards - Individual household emergency planning is the most fundamental and can be the least expensive way to prepare for natural disasters. However, despite government and nonprofit...  相似文献   

Thresholds for post-wildfire debris flows: Insights from the Pinal Fire,Arizona, USA     

Carissa A. Raymond  Luke A. McGuire  Ann M. Youberg  Dennis M. Staley  Jason W. Kean 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(6):1349-1360

Wildfire significantly alters the hydrologic properties of a burned area, leading to increases in overland flow, erosion, and the potential for runoff-generated debris flows. The initiation of debris flows in recently burned areas is well characterized by rainfall intensity-duration (ID) thresholds. However, there is currently a paucity of data quantifying the rainfall intensities required to trigger post-wildfire debris flows, which limits our understanding of how and why rainfall ID thresholds vary in different climatic and geologic settings. In this study, we monitored debris-flow activity following the Pinal Fire in central Arizona, which differs from both a climatic and hydrogeomorphic perspective from other regions in the western United States where ID thresholds for post-wildfire debris flows are well established, namely the Transverse Ranges of southern California. Since the peak rainfall intensity within a rainstorm may exceed the rainfall intensity required to trigger a debris flow, the development of robust rainfall ID thresholds requires knowledge of the timing of debris flows within rainstorms. Existing post-wildfire debris-flow studies in Arizona only constrain the peak rainfall intensity within debris-flow-producing storms, which may far exceed the intensity that actually triggered the observed debris flow. In this study, we used pressure transducers within five burned drainage basins to constrain the timing of debris flows within rainstorms. Rainfall ID thresholds derived here from triggering rainfall intensities are, on average, 22 mm h⁻¹ lower than ID thresholds derived under the assumption that the triggering intensity is equal to the maximum rainfall intensity recorded during a rainstorm. We then use a hydrologic model to demonstrate that the magnitude of the 15-min rainfall ID threshold at the Pinal Fire site is associated with the rainfall intensity required to exceed a recently proposed dimensionless discharge threshold for debris-flow initiation. Model results further suggest that previously observed differences in regional ID thresholds between Arizona and the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California may be attributed, in large part, to differences in the hydraulic properties of burned soils. © 2019 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献