Assessing the hydrological and geomorphic behaviour of a landscape evolution model within a limits-of-acceptability uncertainty analysis framework     

Jefferson S. Wong  Jim E. Freer  Paul D. Bates  Jeff Warburton  Tom J. Coulthard 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2021,46(10):1981-2003

Landscape evolution models (LEMs) have the capability to characterize key aspects of geomorphological and hydrological processes. However, their usefulness is hindered by model equifinality and paucity of available calibration data. Estimating uncertainty in the parameter space and resultant model predictions is rarely achieved as this is computationally intensive and the uncertainties inherent in the observed data are large. Therefore, a limits-of-acceptability (LoA) uncertainty analysis approach was adopted in this study to assess the value of uncertain hydrological and geomorphic data. These were used to constrain simulations of catchment responses and to explore the parameter uncertainty in model predictions. We applied this approach to the River Derwent and Cocker catchments in the UK using a LEM CAESAR-Lisflood. Results show that the model was generally able to produce behavioural simulations within the uncertainty limits of the streamflow. Reliability metrics ranged from 24.4% to 41.2% and captured the high-magnitude low-frequency sediment events. Since different sets of behavioural simulations were found across different parts of the catchment, evaluating LEM performance, in quantifying and assessing both at-a-point behaviour and spatial catchment response, remains a challenge. Our results show that evaluating LEMs within uncertainty analyses framework while taking into account the varying quality of different observations constrains behavioural simulations and parameter distributions and is a step towards a full-ensemble uncertainty evaluation of such models. We believe that this approach will have benefits for reflecting uncertainties in flooding events where channel morphological changes are occurring and various diverse (and yet often sparse) data have been collected over such events.  相似文献   

Ongoing assembly of massive galaxies by major merging in large groups and clusters from the SDSS     

Daniel H. McIntosh †  Yicheng Guo  Jen Hertzberg ‡  Neal Katz  H. J. Mo  Frank C. van den Bosch  Xiaohu Yang 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,388(4):1537-1556

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Advances in pan‐European flood hazard mapping          下载免费PDF全文

Lorenzo Alfieri  Peter Salamon  Alessandra Bianchi  Jeffrey Neal  Paul Bates  Luc Feyen 《水文研究》2014,28(13):4067-4077

Flood hazard maps at trans‐national scale have potential for a large number of applications ranging from climate change studies, reinsurance products, aid to emergency operations for major flood crisis, among others. However, at continental scales, only few products are available, due to the difficulty of retrieving large consistent data sets. Moreover, these are produced at relatively coarse grid resolution, which limits their applications to qualitative assessments. At finer resolution, maps are often limited to country boundaries, due to limited data sharing at trans‐national level. The creation of a European flood hazard map would currently imply a collection of scattered regional maps, often lacking mutual consistency due to the variety of adopted approaches and quality of the underlying input data. In this work, we derive a pan‐European flood hazard map at 100 m resolution. The proposed approach is based on expanding a literature cascade model through a physically based approach. A combination of distributed hydrological and hydraulic models was set up for the European domain. Then, an observed meteorological data set is used to derive a long‐term streamflow simulation and subsequently coherent design flood hydrographs for a return period of 100 years along the pan‐European river network. Flood hydrographs are used to simulate areas at risk of flooding and output maps are merged into a pan‐European flood hazard map. The quality of this map is evaluated for selected areas in Germany and United Kingdom against national/regional hazard maps. Despite inherent limitations and model resolution issues, simulated maps are in good agreement with reference maps (hit rate between 59% and 78%, critical success index between 43% and 65%), suggesting strong potential for a number of applications at the European scale. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Linking biogeochemical processes and historic primary producer communities in a SE USA sinkhole lake from the mid-Holocene to present     

Sean Michael Earley  Matthew Neal Waters  Donald Thieme  Joseph McDonald Smoak 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2017,57(4):295-306

Many freshwater resources receive materials from human development causing a decrease in ecological services when compared to pre-disturbance periods. As a result, the understanding of eutrophication and limnological change has increased, but less attention has been given to systems under intense human impact that have not eutrophied so that drivers precluding eutrophication can be documented. The primary objective of this research was to reconstruct allochthonous inputs and in-lake processes for Long Pond, Georgia, USA from the mid Holocene to present and link them to primary producer community changes. Long Pond is a mesotrophic lake located in a highly altered watershed from agricultural and municipal land use and housing developments. A 5 m sediment core was collected from Long Pond, and organic matter, nutrients (C, N, P), metals (Al, Fe, Cu), and photosynthetic pigments were measured. Long Pond existed in three limnological states spanning the past ~6000 years. Prior to modern lacustrine conditions, Long Pond was a wetland/peat system that experienced the highest primary producer abundance recorded in the core. The modern lacustrine state began in the late Holocene and was characterized by increased connectivity with the surrounding watershed and low productivity. Human impacts began around 1900 AD and included high levels of phosphorus and metal deposition but moderate levels of primary producer abundance. As a result, in-lake dynamics are believed to be regulating the trophic status of Long Pond. Low concentrations of available phosphorus in the water column combined with high concentrations of sedimentary phosphorus may imply the binding of phosphorus to the sediments by certain materials such as aluminum and iron. Long Pond serves as an example of the complex in-lake processes that can occur from allochthonous inputs and autochthonous responses in lake systems thus complicating management decisions.  相似文献   

Environments,Natures, and Social Theory: Toward a Critical Hybridity,by Damian F. White,Alan P. Rudy,and Brian J. Gareau,eds.     

Jeff Rose 《社会与自然资源》2018,31(4):508-510

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Developing and Sequencing Community Engagement and Experiential Education: A Case Study of Urban Geography Teaching and Research     

Jeff Rose 《The Professional geographer》2018,70(2):305-310

Community engagement curricula and course design can provide substantial experiences for both community members and participating students. Using a case study approach, this research focuses on four steps in this process: initial community relationship forming, engaging in community service, transitioning to civic engagement, and developing a community-based research program. Narrative examples from student course evaluations position these community-based experiences as transformative for multiple parties. Institutional structures are presented as helpful entrees to engagement for students, while noting that community relationships provide contextualized, powerful, and meaningful relationships, supporting recommendations for emerging and existing community engagement programs.  相似文献   

哈达门沟金矿床地质特征及其形成时代研究   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6       下载免费PDF全文

苗来成  Yu-min.QIU  关康  Neal McNaughton  裘有守  罗镇宽  David Groves 《地质找矿论丛》1999,14(4):76-82

哈达门沟金矿床位于华北地台北缘西段,产于太古代乌拉山岩群变质碉系中,矿床以发育一系列含金钾长石－石英脉为特征,这些钾长石－石英脉沿近东西向的韧、脆性叠加断裂成 出。钾长石化是最发的近矿围为。采用离子探针（ＳＨＲＩＭＰ）对矿体边部的钾长石化蚀变岩锆石Ｕ－Ｐｂ定年结果表明：矿化钾长石化蚀变岩的年龄为１３２±２Ｍａ。由于钾长石化夺本身被金矿化,因此金矿化年龄小于或接近于１３２±２Ｍａ,为燕山晚期成矿。  相似文献   

A novel index of susceptibility of rivers and their catchments to acidification in regions subject to a maritime influence     

C. C. White  R. Smart  M. Stutter  M. S. Cresser  M. F. Billett  E. A. Elias  C. Soulsby  S. Langan  A. C. Edwards  A. Wade  R. Ferrier  C. Neal  H. Jarvie  R. Owen 《Applied Geochemistry》1999,14(8):369

A simple, unifying approach to classifying quantitatively the susceptibility of catchment soils and surface waters to acidification is suggested. In areas subject to a strong maritime influence, such as the UK and substantial parts of NW Europe, wherever soil mineral weathering rates are low and soils are unfertilised, atmospherically derived base cations of maritime origins have a greater effect than those derived from biogeochemical weathering on the exchangeable soil base cations. This is directly reflected in the relative base cation concentrations of the associated drainage waters, which become increasingly Na-dominated. Using 10 sub-catchments of the River Dee in north-eastern Scotland, it is shown here that the extent of Na dominance, the ratio of Na⁺ to ΣNa⁺+Ca²⁺+Mg²⁺, at any point in a river provides a quantitative index of the upstream weathering rate and thus of the susceptibility of the river concerned to acidification under diverse flow conditions. Data from a further 58 sub-catchments from the same river system, and from 4 other catchments from around Scotland, were used to validate this theory.  相似文献   

In Situ Chemical Treatment: A Love‐Hate Relationship          下载免费PDF全文

Suthan Suthersan  Jeff McDonough  Matt Schnobrich  Craig Divine 《Ground Water Monitoring & Remediation》2017,37(1):17-26

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Steepland geomorphology     

Jeff Warburton 《第四纪科学杂志》1998,13(4):357-358

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