Handling uncertainty in extreme or unrepeatable hydrological processes—the need for an alternative paradigm     

Jim Hall  Malcolm Anderson 《水文研究》2002,16(9):1867-1870

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The properties of spiral galaxies: confronting hierarchical galaxy formation models with observations     

Eric F. Bell  Carlton M. Baugh  Shaun Cole  Carlos S. Frenk  Cedric G. Lacey 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,343(2):367-384

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Metallic effluents of industrial origin in the marine environment: Association Europénne Océanique,EUR 5331, Published by Graham & Trotman Ltd. for the Commission of the European Communities,Luxembourg (1977). 216 pp,tables and figures. Price: £15     

H.A. Cole 《Marine pollution bulletin》1978,9(6):167

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Rock physics analysis for time-lapse seismic at Schiehallion Field, North Sea   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mark Meadows  Don Adams  Rich Wright †  Ali Tura  Steve Cole  David Lumley 《Geophysical Prospecting》2005,53(2):205-213

Rock physics analysis plays a vital role in time‐lapse seismic interpretation because it provides the link between changes in rock and fluid properties and the resulting seismic data response. In this case study of the Schiehallion Field, we discuss a number of issues that commonly arise in rock physics analyses for time‐lapse studies. We show that:

• 1 Logarithmic fits of dry bulk (K_dry) and shear (G_dry) moduli vs. effective pressure (P_eff) are superior to polynomial fits.
• 2 2D surface fits of K_dry and G_dry over porosity (φ) and effective pressure using all the core data simultaneously are more useful and accurate than separate 1D fits over φ and P_eff for each individual core.
• 3 One average set (facies) of K_dry(φ, P_eff) and G_dry(φ, P_eff) can be chosen to represent adequately the entire Schiehallion reservoir.
• 4 Saturated velocities and densities modelled by fluid substitution of K_dry(φ, P_eff), G_dry(φ, P_eff) and the dry bulk density ρ_dry(φ) compare favourably with well‐log velocities and densities.
• 5 P‐ and S‐wave impedance values resulting from fluid substitution of K_dry(φ, P_eff), G_dry(φ, P_eff) and ρ_dry(φ) show that the largest impedance changes occur for high porosities and low effective pressures.
• 6 Uncertainties in K_dry(φ, P_eff) and G_dry(φ, P_eff) derived for individual cores can be used to generate error surfaces for these moduli that represent bounds for quantifying uncertainties in seismic modelling or pressure–saturation inversion.

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Triggering of El Niño by westerly wind events in a coupled general circulation model     

Matthieu?LengaigneEmail author  Eric?Guilyardi  Jean-Philippe?Boulanger  Christophe?Menkes  Pascale?Delecluse  Pete?Inness  Jeff?Cole  Julia?Slingo 《Climate Dynamics》2004,23(6):601-620

Two ten-members ensemble experiments using a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model are performed to study the dynamical response to a strong westerly wind event (WWE) when the tropical Pacific has initial conditions favourable to the development of a warm event. In the reference ensemble (CREF), no wind perturbation is introduced, whereas a strong westerly wind event anomaly is introduced in boreal winter over the western Pacific in the perturbed ensemble (CWWE). Our results demonstrate that an intense WWE is capable of establishing the conditions under which a strong El Niño event can occur. First, it generates a strong downwelling Kelvin wave that generates a positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the central-eastern Pacific amplified through a coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction. This anomaly can be as large as 2.5°C 60 days after the WWE. Secondly, this WWE also initiates an eastward displacement of the warm-pool that promotes the occurrence of subsequent WWEs in the following months. These events reinforce the initial warming through the generation of additional Kelvin waves and generate intense surface jets at the eastern edge of the warm-pool that act to further shift warm waters eastward. The use of a ten-members ensemble however reveals substantial differences in the coupled response to a WWE. Whereas four members of CWWE ensemble develop into intense El Niño warming as described above, four others display a moderate warming and two remains in neutral conditions. This diversity between the members appears to be due to the internal atmospheric variability during and following the inserted WWE. In the four moderate warm cases, the warm-pool is initially shifted eastward following the inserted WWE, but the subsequent weak WWE activity (when compared to the strong warming cases) prevents to further shift the warm-pool eastwards. The seasonal strengthening of trade winds in June–July can therefore act to shift warm waters back into the western Pacific, reducing the central-eastern Pacific warming. This strong sensitivity of the coupled response to WWEs may therefore limit the predictability of El Niño events, as the high frequency wind variability over the warm pool region remains largely unpredictable even at short time lead.  相似文献   

Late Pleistocene outburst flooding from pluvial Lake Alvord into the Owyhee River, Oregon   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Deron T. Carter  Lisa L. Ely  Jim E. O'Connor  Cassandra R. Fenton 《Geomorphology》2006,75(3-4):346

At least one large, late Pleistocene flood traveled into the Owyhee River as a result of a rise and subsequent outburst from pluvial Lake Alvord in southeastern Oregon. Lake Alvord breached Big Sand Gap in its eastern rim after reaching an elevation of 1292 m, releasing 11.3 km³ of water into the adjacent Coyote Basin as it eroded the Big Sand Gap outlet channel to an elevation of about 1280 m. The outflow filled and then spilled out of Coyote Basin through two outlets at 1278 m and into Crooked Creek drainage, ultimately flowing into the Owyhee and Snake Rivers. Along Crooked Creek, the resulting flood eroded canyons, stripped bedrock surfaces, and deposited numerous boulder bars containing imbricated clasts up to 4.1 m in diameter, some of which are located over 30 m above the present-day channel.Critical depth calculations at Big Sand Gap show that maximum outflow from a 1292- to 1280-m drop in Lake Alvord was  10,000 m³ s^− 1. Flooding became confined to a single channel approximately 40 km downstream of Big Sand Gap, where step-backwater calculations show that a much larger peak discharge of 40,000 m³ s^− 1 is required to match the highest geologic evidence of the flood in this channel. This inconsistency can be explained by (1) a single 10,000 m³ s^− 1 flood that caused at least 13 m of vertical incision in the channel (hence enlarging the channel cross-section); (2) multiple floods of 10,000 m³ s^− 1 or less, each producing some incision of the channel; or (3) an earlier flood of 40,000 m³ s^− 1 creating the highest flood deposits and crossed drainage divides observed along Crooked Creek drainage, followed by a later 10,000 m³ s^− 1 flood associated with the most recent shorelines in Alvord and Coyote Basins.Well-developed shorelines of Lake Alvord at 1280 m and in Coyote Basin at 1278 m suggest that after the initial flood, postflood overflow persisted for an extended period, connecting Alvord and Coyote Basins with the Owyhee River of the Columbia River drainage. Surficial weathering characteristics and planktonic freshwater diatoms in Lake Alvord sediment stratigraphically below Mt. St. Helens set Sg tephra, suggest deep open-basin conditions at  13–14 ka (¹⁴C yr) and that the flood and prominent shorelines date to about this time. But geomorphic and sedimentological evidence also show that Alvord and Coyote Basins held older, higher-elevation lakes that may have released earlier floods down Crooked Creek.  相似文献   

利用遥感技术建立墨西哥热带地上生物量模型(英文)     

AGUIRRE-SALADO Carlos Arturo  TREVIO-GARZA Eduardo Javier  AGUIRRE-CALDERóN Oscar Alberto  JIMéNEZ-PéREZ Javier  GONZáLEZ-TAGLE Marco Aurelio  VALDEZ-LAZALDE José René  MIRANDA-ARAGóN Liliana  AGUIRRE-SALADO Alejandro Iván 《地理学报(英文版)》2012,22(4):669-680

Spatially-explicit estimation of aboveground biomass(AGB) plays an important role to generate action policies focused in climate change mitigation,since carbon(C) retained in the biomass is vital for regulating Earth’s temperature.This work estimates AGB using both chlorophyll(red,near infrared) and moisture(middle infrared) based normalized vegetation indices constructed with MCD43A4 MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) and MOD44B vegetation continuous fields(VCF) data.The study area is located in San Luis Potosí,Mexico,a region that comprises a part of the upper limit of the intertropical zone.AGB estimations were made using both individual tree data from the National Forest Inventory of Mexico and allometric equations reported in scientific literature.Linear and nonlinear(expo-nential) models were fitted to find their predictive potential when using satellite spectral data as explanatory variables.Highly-significant correlations(p = 0.01) were found between all the explaining variables tested.NDVI62,linked to chlorophyll content and moisture stress,showed the highest correlation.The best model(nonlinear) showed an index of fit(Pseudo-r2) equal to 0.77 and a root mean square error equal to 26.00 Mg/ha using NDVI62 and VCF as explanatory variables.Validation correlation coefficients were similar for both models:lin-ear(r = 0.87**) and nonlinear(r = 0.86**).  相似文献   

A seasonal study of the atmospheric dynamics over the Iberian Peninsula based on circulation types     

Juan Andrés García-Valero  Juan Pedro Montavez  Sonia Jerez  Juan José Gómez-Navarro  Raquel Lorente-Plazas  Pedro Jiménez-Guerrero 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2012,110(1-2):291-310

A seasonal analysis of the atmospheric circulation over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) based on circulation types (CTs) obtained from sea level pressure and 500-hPa geopotential height is presented. The study covers the period of 1958–2008, when a high variability and important changes in winter and spring precipitation and temperature have been reported. Frequency, persistence, and the most probable transitions of the circulation types are analyzed. Among the clustering methods available in the literature, two of the most reliable classification methods have been tested, K-means and simulated annealing and diversified randomization. A comparison of both methods over the IP is presented for winter (DJF). The quality of the circulation types obtained through both methods as well as the better stability achieved by K-means suggest this method as more appropriated for our target area. Twelve CTs were obtained for each season and were analyzed. The patterns obtained were regrouped in five general situations: anticyclonic, cyclonic, zonal, summertime, and hybrid-mixed. The analysis of frequencies of these situations offers a similar characterization of the atmospheric circulation that others previously obtained by subjective methods. The analysis of the trends in frequency and persistence for each CT shows few significant trends, mainly in winter and spring with a general decrease of the cyclonic patterns and an increase of the anticyclonic situations. This can be related to the negative precipitation trends reported by other authors. Regarding the persistence, an interesting result is that there is a high interannual variability of the persistence in autumn and spring, when patterns can persist longer than in other seasons. An analysis of the most probable transitions between the CTs has been performed, revealing the existence of cyclic sequences in all seasons. These sequences are related to the high frequency of certain patterns such as the anticyclonic situations in winter. Finally, a clear seasonal dependence of the transitions between cyclonic situations associated with extratropical disturbances was found. This dependence suggests that the transitions of low-pressure systems towards the south of the IP are more likely in spring and autumn than in winter.  相似文献   

North Atlantic atmospheric circulation and surface wind in the Northeast of the Iberian Peninsula: uncertainty and long term downscaled variability   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

E. García-Bustamante  J. F. González-Rouco  J. Navarro  E. Xoplaki  P. A. Jiménez  J. P. Montávez 《Climate Dynamics》2012,38(1-2):141-160

The variability and predictability of the surface wind field at the regional scale is explored over a complex terrain region in the northeastern Iberian Peninsula by means of a downscaling technique based on Canonical Correlation Analysis. More than a decade of observations (1992–2005) allows for calibrating and validating a statistical method that elicits the main associations between the large scale atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic and Mediterranean areas and the regional wind field. In an initial step the downscaling model is designed by selecting parameter values from practise. To a large extent, the variability of the wind at monthly timescales is found to be governed by the large scale circulation modulated by the particular orographic features of the area. The sensitivity of the downscaling methodology to the selection of the model parameter values is explored, in a second step, by performing a systematic sampling of the parameters space, avoiding a heuristic selection. This provides a metric for the uncertainty associated with the various possible model configurations. The uncertainties associated with the model configuration are considerably dependent on the spatial variability of the wind. While the sampling of the parameters space in the model set up moderately impact estimations during the calibration period, the regional wind variability is very sensitive to the parameters selection at longer timescales. This fact illustrates that downscaling exercises based on a single configuration of parameters should be interpreted with extreme caution. The downscaling model is used to extend the estimations several centuries to the past using long datasets of sea level pressure, thereby illustrating the large temporal variability of the regional wind field from interannual to multicentennial timescales. The analysis does not evidence long term trends throughout the twentieth century, however anomalous episodes of high/low wind speeds are identified.  相似文献   

Neutral hydrogen absorption observations of the central region of NGC 5929     

G. H. J. Cole    A. Pedlar    C. G. Mundell    J. F. Gallimore  & A. J. Holloway 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》1998,301(3):782-786

We present 0.15-arcsec (25-pc) resolution MERLIN observations of neutral hydrogen absorption detected towards the nuclear region of the type 2 Seyfert galaxy NGC 5929. Absorption is detected only towards the north-eastern radio component with a column density of (6.5 ± 0.6) × 10²¹ cm⁻². Based on comparison with an HST WFPC2 continuum image, we propose that the absorption is caused by a 1.5-arcsec structure of neutral gas and dust offset 0.3 arcsec south-east of the nucleus and running NE–SW. A separate cloud of dust is apparent 1.5 arcsec to the south-west of the nucleus in the HST image. A comparison of the centroid velocity (2358 ± 5 km s⁻¹) and full width at half-maximum (43 ± 6 km s⁻¹) of the absorbing gas with previous [O  III ] observations suggests that both the neutral and ionized gas are undergoing galactic rotation towards the observer in the north-east and away from the observer in the south-west. The main structure is consistent with an inclined ring of gas and dust encircling the active galactic nucleus (AGN); alternatively it may be a bar or inner spiral arm. We do not detect neutral hydrogen absorption or dust obscuration against the radio nucleus (column density < 3.1 × 10²¹ cm⁻²) expected by a torus of neutral gas and dust in unified models of AGNs for a type 2 Seyfert galaxy.  相似文献