Public health impacts of climate change in Washington State: projected mortality risks due to heat events and air pollution     

J. Elizabeth Jackson  Michael G. Yost  Catherine Karr  Cole Fitzpatrick  Brian K. Lamb  Serena H. Chung  Jack Chen  Jeremy Avise  Roger A. Rosenblatt  Richard A. Fenske 《Climatic change》2010,102(1-2):159-186

Illness and mortality related to heat and worsening air quality are core public health concerns associated with climate change projections. We examined the historical relationship between age- and cause-specific mortality rates from 1980 through 2006 and heat events at the 99th percentile of humidex values in the historic period from January 1, 1970 to December 31, 2006 in the greater Seattle area (King, Pierce and Snohomish counties), Spokane County, the Tri-Cities (Benton and Franklin counties) and Yakima County; the relative risks of mortality during heat events were applied to population and climate projections for Washington State to calculate number of deaths above the baseline (1980–2006) expected during projected heat events in 2025, 2045 and 2085. Three different warming scenarios were used in the analysis. Relative risks for the greater Seattle area showed a significant dose-response relationship between heat event duration and daily mortality rates for non-traumatic deaths for persons ages 45 and above, typically peaking at four days of exposure to humidex values above the 99th percentile. The largest number of projected excess deaths in all years and scenarios for the Seattle region was found for age 65 and above. Under the middle warming scenario, this age group is expected to have 96, 148 and 266 excess deaths from all non-traumatic causes in 2025, 2045 and 2085, respectively. We also examined projected excess deaths due to ground-level ozone concentrations at mid century (2045–2054) in King and Spokane counties. Current (1997–2006) ozone measurements and mid-twenty-first century ozone projections were coupled with dose-response data from the scientific literature to produce estimates overall and cardiopulmonary mortality. Daily maximum 8-h ozone concentrations are forecasted to be 16–28% higher in the mid twenty-first century compared to the recent decade of 1997–2006. By mid-century in King County the non-traumatic mortality rate related to ozone was projected to increase from baseline (0.026 per 100,000; 95% confidence interval 0.013–0.038) to 0.033 (95% CI 0.017–0.049). For the same health outcome in Spokane County, the baseline period rate of 0.058 (95% CI 0.030–0.085) was estimated increase to 0.068 (95% CI 0.035–0.100) by mid-century. The cardiopulmonary death rate per 100,000 due to ozone was estimated to increase from 0.011 (95% CI 0.005–0.017) to 0.015 (0.007–0.022) in King County, and from 0.027 (95% CI 0.013–0.042) to 0.032 (95% CI 0.015–0.049) in Spokane County. Public health interventions aimed at protecting Washington’s population from excessive heat and increased ozone concentrations will become increasingly important for preventing deaths, especially among older adults. Furthermore, heat and air quality related illnesses that do not result in death, but are serious nevertheless, may be reduced by the same measures.  相似文献   

Impact of resolving the diurnal cycle in an ocean–atmosphere GCM. Part 2: A diurnally coupled CGCM     

D. J. Bernie  E. Guilyardi  G. Madec  J. M. Slingo  S. J. Woolnough  J. Cole 《Climate Dynamics》2008,31(7-8):909-925

Coupled ocean atmosphere general circulation models (GCM) are typically coupled once every 24 h, excluding the diurnal cycle from the upper ocean. Previous studies attempting to examine the role of the diurnal cycle of the upper ocean and particularly of diurnal SST variability have used models unable to resolve the processes of interest. In part 1 of this study a high vertical resolution ocean GCM configuration with modified physics was developed that could resolve the diurnal cycle in the upper ocean. In this study it is coupled every 3 h to atmospheric GCM to examine the sensitivity of the mean climate simulation and aspects of its variability to the inclusion of diurnal ocean-atmosphere coupling. The inclusion of the diurnal cycle leads to a tropics wide increase in mean sea surface temperature (SST), with the strongest signal being across the equatorial Pacific where the warming increases from 0.2°C in the central and western Pacific to over 0.3°C in the eastern equatorial Pacific. Much of this warming is shown to be a direct consequence of the rectification of daily mean SST by the diurnal variability of SST. The warming of the equatorial Pacific leads to a redistribution of precipitation from the Inter tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) toward the equator. In the western Pacific there is an increase in precipitation between Papa new guinea and 170°E of up to 1.2 mm/day, improving the simulation compared to climatology. Pacific sub tropical cells are increased in strength by about 10%, in line with results of part 1 of this study, due to the modification of the exchange of momentum between the equatorially divergent Ekman currents and the geostropic convergence at depth, effectively increasing the dynamical response of the tropical Pacific to zonal wind stresses. During the spring relaxation of the Pacific trade winds, a large diurnal cycle of SST increases the seasonal warming of the equatorial Pacific. When the trade winds then re-intensify, the increase in the dynamical response of the ocean leads to a stronger equatorial upwelling. These two processes both lead to stronger seasonal basin scale feedbacks in the coupled system, increasing the strength of the seasonal cycle of the tropical Pacific sector by around 10%. This means that the diurnal cycle in the upper ocean plays a part in the coupled feedbacks between ocean and atmosphere that maintain the basic state and the timing of the seasonal cycle of SST and trade winds in the tropical Pacific. The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is examined by use of a large scale MJO index, lag correlations and composites of events. The inclusion of the diurnal cycle leads to a reduction in overall MJO activity. Precipitation composites show that the MJO is stronger and more coherent when the diurnal cycle of coupling is resolved, with the propagation and different phases being far more distinct both locally and to larger lead times across the tropical Indo-Pacific. Part one of this study showed that that diurnal variability of SST is modulated by the MJO and therefore increases the intraseasonal SST response to the different phases of the MJO. Precipitation-based composites of SST variability confirm this increase in the coupled simulations. It is argued that including this has increased the thermodynamical coupling of the ocean and atmosphere on the timescale of the MJO (20–100 days), accounting for the improvement in the MJO strength and coherency seen in composites of precipitation and SST. These results show that the diurnal cycle of ocean–atmosphere interaction has profound impact on a range of up-scale variability in the tropical climate and as such, it is an important feature of the modelled climate system which is currently either neglected or poorly resolved in state of the art coupled models.  相似文献   

A lunar cryptomare dome near Mee H and Drebbel F     

Raffaello Lena  Jim Phillips  Geologic Lunar Research Group 《Planetary and Space Science》2009,57(3):267-275

In this study, we examine the lunar mare dome Mee 1 situated near the craters Mee H and Drebbel F in a region showing evidence of ancient (pre-Orientale) mare volcanism and cryptomare deposits. Regional stratigraphic relations indicate that Mee 1 was formed prior to the Orientale impact at the beginning of the Imbrian period. Based on a combined photoclinometry and shape from shading technique applied to telescopic CCD images of the dome acquired under oblique illumination, we determined a diameter of Mee 1 of 25 km, a height of 250 m, a flank slope of 1.15^°, and a volume of . Based on rheologic modelling of the dome and a viscoelastic model of the feeder dike, we obtained a magma viscosity of , an effusion rate of , a duration of the effusion process of 1.6 years, a magma rise speed of , a width of the feeder dike of 32 m, and a horizontal dike length of 144 km. A comparison of Mee 1 with domes with similar morphometric properties, which are located near Milichius and inside the crater Petavius, reveals strong similarities with respect to the viscosity of the dome-forming magma and the feeder dike geometry, while the effusion rate and magma rise speed of Mee 1 are somewhat higher. The pronounced morphometric differences between Mee 1 and a smaller dome situated close to the crater Doppelmayer and characterised by a similar magma viscosity suggest that the growth of that dome was limited by exhaustion of the magma reservoir, while Mee 1 and the other larger domes display morphometric properties presumably coming closer to the cooling limit. The comparison of the ancient dome Mee 1 with the younger (Eratosthenian) edifices near Milichius and Doppelmayer suggests that the conditions in the upper mantle and the crust favoured high eruption volumes, effusion rates, and magma rise speeds, implying the occurrence of large magma reservoirs preventing the limitation of dome growth by magma exhaustion. On the other hand, we observe similar general morphometric, rheologic, and feeder dike characteristics and, thus, conclude that the formation conditions of lunar mare domes did not change fundamentally during the Imbrian period.  相似文献   

Adsorption kinetics of CO2, CH4, and their equimolar mixture on coal from the Black Warrior Basin,West-Central Alabama     

M.S. Gruszkiewicz  M.T. Naney  J.G. Blencoe  D.R. Cole  J.C. Pashin  R.E. Carroll 《International Journal of Coal Geology》2009,77(1-2):23-33

Laboratory experiments were conducted to investigate the adsorption kinetic behavior of pure and mixed gases (CO_2, CH₄, approximately equimolar CO₂ + CH₄ mixtures, and He) on a coal sample obtained from the Black Warrior Basin at the Littleton Mine (Twin Pine Coal Company), Jefferson County, west-central Alabama. The sample was from the Mary Lee coal zone of the Pottsville Formation (Lower Pennsylvanian). Experiments with three size fractions (45–150 µm, 1–2 mm, and 5–10 mm) of crushed coal were performed at 40 °C and 35 °C over a pressure range of 1.4–6.9 MPa to simulate coalbed methane reservoir conditions in the Black Warrior Basin and provide data relevant for enhanced coalbed methane recovery operations. The following key observations were made: (1) CO₂ adsorption on both dry and water-saturated coal is much more rapid than CH₄ adsorption; (2) water saturation decreases the rates of CO₂ and CH₄ adsorption on coal surfaces, but it appears to have minimal effects on the final magnitude of CO₂ or CH₄ adsorption if the coal is not previously exposed to CO₂; (3) retention of adsorbed CO₂ on coal surfaces is significant even with extreme pressure cycling; and (4) adsorption is significantly faster for the 45–150 μm size fraction compared to the two coarser fractions.  相似文献   

Assessing the hydrological and geomorphic behaviour of a landscape evolution model within a limits-of-acceptability uncertainty analysis framework     

Jefferson S. Wong  Jim E. Freer  Paul D. Bates  Jeff Warburton  Tom J. Coulthard 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2021,46(10):1981-2003

Landscape evolution models (LEMs) have the capability to characterize key aspects of geomorphological and hydrological processes. However, their usefulness is hindered by model equifinality and paucity of available calibration data. Estimating uncertainty in the parameter space and resultant model predictions is rarely achieved as this is computationally intensive and the uncertainties inherent in the observed data are large. Therefore, a limits-of-acceptability (LoA) uncertainty analysis approach was adopted in this study to assess the value of uncertain hydrological and geomorphic data. These were used to constrain simulations of catchment responses and to explore the parameter uncertainty in model predictions. We applied this approach to the River Derwent and Cocker catchments in the UK using a LEM CAESAR-Lisflood. Results show that the model was generally able to produce behavioural simulations within the uncertainty limits of the streamflow. Reliability metrics ranged from 24.4% to 41.2% and captured the high-magnitude low-frequency sediment events. Since different sets of behavioural simulations were found across different parts of the catchment, evaluating LEM performance, in quantifying and assessing both at-a-point behaviour and spatial catchment response, remains a challenge. Our results show that evaluating LEMs within uncertainty analyses framework while taking into account the varying quality of different observations constrains behavioural simulations and parameter distributions and is a step towards a full-ensemble uncertainty evaluation of such models. We believe that this approach will have benefits for reflecting uncertainties in flooding events where channel morphological changes are occurring and various diverse (and yet often sparse) data have been collected over such events.  相似文献   

Adsorption of cobalt by using inorganic components of sediment samples from water bodies   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1  

Rocío Montes de Oca-Palma  Marcos Solache-Ríos  Melania Jiménez-Reyes  JoséJuan García-Sánchez  Perla Tatiana Almazán-Sánchez 《国际泥沙研究》2021,36(4):524-531

The adsorption of cobalt ions was evaluated using sediment samples from water bodies to investigate the adsorption properties of sediment and the behavior of these natural materials in the presence of nuclear and industrial waste.The two sediments(S1 and S2)were treated to eliminate humic and fulvic acids and then they were characterized by several techniques.The minerals found in both the sediments(X-ray diffraction)were quartz and albite;plus,goethite and muscovite in S1,and kaolinite and montmorillonite in S2.Point of zero charge(PZC)of S1 and S2 was 6.00 and 5.22,respectively.The specific area of S1(63.3 m²/g)is higher than S2(1.5 m²/g).Adsorption kinetics data for S1 and S2 were best fitted to the pseudo second-order model.The removal efficiency of S1 for cobalt was 96%with an adsorption capacity(qe)of 0.93 mg/g,and for S2 was 45%with a qeof 0.40 mg/g.The experimental data of the adsorption isotherms were adjusted to Langmuir and Freundlich models for S1 and S2,respectively.The thermodynamic parameters(enthalpy,entropy,and Gibb’s free energy)indicated that the adsorption processes were endothermic,spontaneous,and chemisorption mechanism.The results show that the adsorption capacities of the sediments depend on their composition.These water sediments have important adsorption properties for cobalt,and they can be used in the treatment of nuclear and industrial aqueous wastes.  相似文献   

Long-term observations of the group structure of surface waves in ice     

Gemmrich  Johannes  Mudge  Todd  Thomson  Jim 《Ocean Dynamics》2021,71(3):343-356

Ocean Dynamics - Several years of surface wave observations in the Chukchi Sea reveal wave groups are a common feature in open water and ice-covered conditions. The strength of the groupiness, here...  相似文献   

The statistical properties of Λ cold dark matter halo formation     

Shaun Cole  John Helly  Carlos S. Frenk  Hannah Parkinson 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,383(2):546-556

We present a comparison of the statistical properties of dark matter halo merger trees extracted from the Millennium Simulation with Extended Press–Schechter (EPS) formalism and the related galform Monte Carlo method for generating ensembles of merger trees. The volume, mass resolution and output frequency make the Millennium Simulation a unique resource for the study of the hierarchical growth of structure. We construct the merger trees of present-day friends-of-friends groups and calculate a variety of statistics that quantify the masses of their progenitors as a function of redshift, accretion rates, and the redshift distribution of their most recent major merger. We also look in the forward direction and quantify the present-day mass distribution of haloes into which high-redshift progenitors of a specific mass become incorporated. We find that the EPS formalism and its Monte Carlo extension capture the qualitative behaviour of all these statistics, but as redshift increases they systematically underestimate the masses of the most massive progenitors. This shortcoming is worst for the Monte Carlo algorithm. We present a fitting function to a scaled version of the progenitor mass distribution and show how it can be used to make more accurate predictions of both progenitor and final halo mass distributions.  相似文献   

Exploring the infrared/radio correlation at high redshift     

Edo Ibar  Michele Cirasuolo  Rob Ivison  Philip Best  Ian Smail  y Biggs  Chris Simpson  Jim Dunlop  Omar Almaini  Ross McLure  Sebastien Foucaud  Steve Rawlings 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,386(2):953-962

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Large Dust Grains Around Cometary Nuclei     

A. Molina  F. Moreno  F. J. Jiménez-Fernández 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2008,102(1-4):521-524

Large amounts of particles ejected from the nucleus surface are present in the vicinity of the cometary nuclei when comets are near the Sun (at heliocentric distances ≤2 AU). The largest dust grains ejected may constitute a hazard for spatial vehicles. We tried to obtain the bounded orbits of those particles and to investigate their stability along several orbital periods. The model includes the solar and the cometary gravitational forces and the solar radiation pressure force. The nucleus is assumed to be spherical. The dust grains are also assumed to be spherical, and radially ejected. We include the effects of centrifugal forces owing to the comet rotation. An expression for the most heavy particles that can be lifted is proposed. Using the usual values adopted for the case of Halley’s comet, the largest grains that can be lifted have a diameter about 5 cm, and the term due to the rotation is negligible. However, that term increases the obtained value for the maximum diameter of the lifted grain in a significant amount when the rotation period is of the order of a few hours.  相似文献