New Zealand climate: The temperature record,historical data and some agricultural implications     

M. J. Salinger 《Climatic change》1979,2(2):109-126

Evidence is presented that suggests that annual and seasonal temperatures are in phase throughout the New Zealand region for climatic variation. Annual and seasonal temperature curves dating back to 1853 based on the longest instrumental records show a warming of over 1 °C between the early 1860's and the present day, with a 0.5 °C discontinuity since the mid 1940's. Although the warming is regional, the magnitude and timing of the fluctuations vary because of the country's high relief, and wide latitude range. These factors give differing exposure to the atmosphere and oceanic circulations, the resultant interaction of which allows the country to be divided into six temperature response areas which are homogeneous for fluctuations. The information of the last fifty years in these areas is compared. The story from the longer record is supported by phenomena documented from historical sources such as glacial variations, iceberg sightings, and severe snowstorm occurrences. The length and intensity of the growing season is examined in two climatically different areas of New Zealand to ascertain the agricultural significance of the described climate record.  相似文献   

Modelling the chloride signal at Plynlimon,Wales, using a modified dynamic TOPMODEL incorporating conservative chemical mixing (with uncertainty)     

T. Page  K. J. Beven  Jim Freer  Colin Neal 《水文研究》2007,21(3):292-307

The application of a modified version of dynamic TOPMODEL for two subcatchments at Plynlimon, Wales is described. Conservative chemical mixing within mobile and immobile stores has been added to the hydrological model in an attempt to simulate observed stream chloride concentrations. The model was not fully able to simulate the observed behaviour, in particular the short‐ to medium‐term dynamics. One of the primary problems highlighted by the study was the representation of dry deposition and cloud‐droplet‐deposited chloride, which formed a significant part of the long‐term chloride mass budget. Equifinality of parameter sets inhibited the ability to determine the effective catchment mixing volumes and coefficients or the most likely partition between occult mass inputs and chloride mass inputs determined by catchment immobile‐store antecedent conditions. Some success was achieved, in as much as some aspects of the dynamic behaviour of the signal were satisfactorily simulated, although spectral analysis showed that the model could not fully reproduce the 1/f power spectra of observed stream chloride concentrations with its implications of a wide distribution of residence times for water in the catchment. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Postglacial history of alpine vegetation,fire, and climate from Laguna de Río Seco,Sierra Nevada,southern Spain     

R.S. Anderson  G. Jiménez-Moreno  J.S. Carrión  C. Pérez-Martínez 《Quaternary Science Reviews》2011,30(13-14):1615-1629

The Sierra Nevada of southern Spain is a landscape with a rich biological and cultural heritage. The range was extensively glaciated during the late Pleistocene. However, the postglacial paleoecologic history of the highest range in southern Europe is nearly completely unknown. Here we use sediments from a small lake above present treeline – Laguna de Río Seco at 3020 m elevation – in a paleoecological study documenting over 11,500 calendar years of vegetation, fire and climate change, addressing ecological and paleoclimatic issues unique to this area through comparison with regional paleoecological sequences. The early record is dominated by Pinus pollen, with Betula, deciduous Quercus, and grasses, with an understory of shrubs. It is unlikely that pine trees grew around the lake, and fire was relatively unimportant at this site during this period. Aquatic microfossils indicate that the wettest conditions and highest lake levels at Laguna de Río Seco occurred before 7800 cal yr BP. This is in contrast to lower elevation sites, where wettest conditions occurred after ca 7800. Greater differences in early Holocene seasonal insolation may have translated to greater snowpack and subsequently higher lake levels at higher elevations, but not necessarily at lower elevations, where higher evaporation rates prevailed. With declining seasonality after ca 8000 cal yr BP, but continuing summer precipitation, lake levels at the highest elevation site remained high, but lake levels at lower elevation sites increased as evaporation rates declined. Drier conditions commenced regionally after ca 5700 cal yr BP, shown at Laguna de Río Seco by declines in wetland pollen, and increases in high elevation steppe shrubs common today (Juniperus, Artemisia, and others). The disappearance or decline of mesophytes, such as Betula from ca 4000 cal yr BP is part of a regional depletion in Mediterranean Spain and elsewhere in Europe from the mid to late Holocene. On the other hand, Castanea sativa increased in Laguna de Río Seco record after ca 4000 cal yr BP, and especially in post-Roman times, probably due to arboriculture. Though not as important at high than at low elevations, fire occurrence was elevated, particularly after ca 3700 years ago, in response to regional human population expansion. The local and regional impact of humans increased substantially after ca 2700 years ago, with the loss of Pinus forest within the mountain range, increases in evidence of pasturing herbivores around the lake, and Olea cultivation at lower elevations. Though human impact was not as extensive at high elevation as at lower elevation sites in southern Iberia, this record confirms that even remote sites were not free of direct human influence during the Holocene.  相似文献   

On the precision and accuracy of IGS orbits   总被引：10，自引：6，他引：4  

Jake Griffiths  Jim R. Ray 《Journal of Geodesy》2009,83(3-4):277-287

In order to explore the precision and accuracy of International GNSS Service (IGS) orbits, we difference geocentric satellite positions midway between successive daily Final orbits for the period starting 5 November 2006, when the IGS switched its method of antenna calibration, through 31 December 2007. This yields a time series of orbit repeatabilities analogous to the classical geodetic test for position determinations. If we compare our average positional discontinuities to the official IGS accuracy codes, root-sum-squared (RSS) for each pair of days, we find the discontinuities are not well correlated with the predicted performance values. If instead the IGS weighted root-mean-square (WRMS) values from the Final combination long-arc analyses are taken as the measure of IGS accuracy, we find the position differences and long-arc values are correlated, but the long-arc values are exaggerated, particularly around eclipses, despite the fact that our day-boundary position differences apply to a single epoch each day and the long-arc analyses consider variations over a week. Our method is not well suited to probe the extent to which systematic effects dominate over random orbit errors, as indicated by satellite laser ranging residuals, but eclipsing satellites often display the most problematic behavior. A better metric than the current IGS orbit accuracy codes would probably be one based on the orbit discontinuities between successive days.  相似文献   

Multifractal analysis as a tool for validating a rainfall model     

A. P. García‐Marín  F. J. Jiménez‐Hornero  J. L. Ayuso‐Muñoz 《水文研究》2008,22(14):2672-2688

A multifractal analysis was carried out in order to validate the simulation of hourly rainfall records of a local climate model for the Iberian Peninsula. Observed and simulated hourly rainfall data from four locations in Andalusia (southern Spain) were used to carry out the study. In order to detect the influence of the length of the data series on the results, two different sizes were used for the real data: 4 years, and 20 years. The results show that algebraic tails are required to fit the probability distribution of extreme rain event sizes, and rain and dry event durations for both kinds of rainfall data. Similar results are found for the extreme rain event sizes and dry event durations fits when the real and synthetic data are considered. Nevertheless, some differences appear in the cases of rain event durations. The detection of the presence of a first‐order multifractal phase transition associated with a critical moment in the empirical moment scaling exponent function and the results of the extreme rain event sizes fits, reveal that real rainfall is a self‐organized criticality (SOC) process. That behaviour is less evident in the simulated rainfall series. The same ‘synoptic maximum’ value was found for each place with both types of rainfall data. A time clustering analysis was carried out applying the count‐based periodogram and the Fano factor methods. Some periodicities have been detected in the periodograms, especially for the longest real rainfall data series. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A Late‐glacial chironomid record from Hawes Water,northwest England     

Alan Bedford  Richard. T. Jones  Barbara Lang  Stephen Brooks  Jim D. Marshall 《第四纪科学杂志》2004,19(3):281-290

This paper presents the results of a high‐resolution Late‐glacial chironomid stratigraphy from Hawes Water, a small carbonate lake in northern Lancashire. The samples were from a core taken from the terrestrialised margin of the present lake, which represents an intermediate depth between the true littoral and the profundal. The chironomid assemblage showed a high degree of sensitivity to both broad‐scale and short‐term temperature changes. Comparison with an existing proxy temperature record (δ¹⁸O) for the site confirmed the presence of four temperature inversions within the Late‐glacial Interstadial. A mean July air temperature inference model, derived from acid, soft‐water lakes in Norway and Svalbard, was applied to the data. Despite the absence of carbonate lakes within the Norwegian training set, there was a close similarity between trends in estimated July air temperature and the δ¹⁸O trace, with a particularly strong correspondence in the periods of clay deposition. This suggests that this model is highly robust. The inferred maximum Interstadial temperature was 13.4°C, dropping initially to 7.5°C in the Loch Lomond Stadial. Temperatures reach a maximum of nearly 10°C in this period, cool for a short period before rising rapidly to 13.2°C at the start of the Holocene. These temperatures are similar to but slightly higher than those estimated for Whitrig Bog, southeast Scotland, and lower than those inferred from coleopteran‐based models for sites in South Wales. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Optical archival spectra of blazar candidates of uncertain type in the 3rd Fermi Large Area Telescope Catalog     

N. Álvarez Crespo  F. Massaro  R. D’Abrusco  M. Landoni  N. Masetti  V. Chavushyan  E. Jiménez-Bailón  F. La Franca  D. Milisavljevic  A. Paggi  V. Patiño-Álvarez  F. Ricci  Howard A. Smith 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2016,361(9):316

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Groundwater recharge in irrigated semi-arid areas: quantitative hydrological modelling and sensitivity analysis   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Joaquín Jiménez-Martínez  Lucila Candela  Jorge Molinero  Karim Tamoh 《Hydrogeology Journal》2010,18(8):1811-1824

For semi-arid regions, methods of assessing aquifer recharge usually consider the potential evapotranspiration. Actual evapotranspiration rates can be below potential rates for long periods of time, even in irrigated systems. Accurate estimations of aquifer recharge in semi-arid areas under irrigated agriculture are essential for sustainable water-resources management. A method to estimate aquifer recharge from irrigated farmland has been tested. The water-balance-modelling approach was based on VisualBALAN v. 2.0, a computer code that simulates water balance in the soil, vadose zone and aquifer. The study was carried out in the Campo de Cartagena (SE Spain) in the period 1999–2008 for three different groups of crops: annual row crops (lettuce and melon), perennial vegetables (artichoke) and fruit trees (citrus). Computed mean-annual-recharge values (from irrigation+precipitation) during the study period were 397 mm for annual row crops, 201 mm for perennial vegetables and 194 mm for fruit trees: 31.4, 20.7 and 20.5% of the total applied water, respectively. The effects of rainfall events on the final recharge were clearly observed, due to the continuously high water content in soil which facilitated the infiltration process. A sensitivity analysis to assess the reliability and uncertainty of recharge estimations was carried out.  相似文献   

Modelling shallow landslide susceptibility: a new approach in logistic regression by using favourability assessment   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

María José Domínguez-Cuesta  Montserrat Jiménez-Sánchez  Ana Colubi  Gil González-Rodríguez 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2010,99(3):661-674

A new method for estimating shallow landslide susceptibility by combining Geographical Information System (GIS), nonparametric kernel density estimation and logistic regression is described. Specifically, a logistic regression is applied to predict the spatial distribution by estimating the probability of occurrence of a landslide in a 16 km² area. For this purpose, a GIS is employed to gather the relevant sample information connected with the landslides. The advantages of pre-processing the explanatory variables by nonparametric density estimation (for continuous variables) and a reclassification (for categorical/discrete ones) are discussed. The pre-processing leads to new explanatory variables, namely, some functions which measure the favourability of occurrence of a landslide. The resulting model correctly classifies 98.55% of the inventaried landslides and 89.80% of the landscape surface without instabilities. New data about recent shallow landslides were collected in order to validate the model, and 92.20% of them are also correctly classified. The results support the methodology and the extrapolation of the model to the whole study area (278 km²) in order to obtain susceptibility maps.  相似文献   

Impacts of uncertain river flow data on rainfall‐runoff model calibration and discharge predictions     

Hilary McMillan  Jim Freer  Florian Pappenberger  Tobias Krueger  Martyn Clark 《水文研究》2010,24(10):1270-1284

In order to quantify total error affecting hydrological models and predictions, we must explicitly recognize errors in input data, model structure, model parameters and validation data. This paper tackles the last of these: errors in discharge measurements used to calibrate a rainfall‐runoff model, caused by stage–discharge rating‐curve uncertainty. This uncertainty may be due to several combined sources, including errors in stage and velocity measurements during individual gaugings, assumptions regarding a particular form of stage–discharge relationship, extrapolation of the stage–discharge relationship beyond the maximum gauging, and cross‐section change due to vegetation growth and/or bed movement. A methodology is presented to systematically assess and quantify the uncertainty in discharge measurements due to all of these sources. For a given stage measurement, a complete PDF of true discharge is estimated. Consequently, new model calibration techniques can be introduced to explicitly account for the discharge error distribution. The method is demonstrated for a gravel‐bed river in New Zealand, where all the above uncertainty sources can be identified, including significant uncertainty in cross‐section form due to scour and re‐deposition of sediment. Results show that rigorous consideration of uncertainty in flow data results in significant improvement of the model's ability to predict the observed flow. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献