Future regional projections of extreme temperatures in Europe: a nonstationary seasonal approach     

Maria Dolores Frías  Roberto Mínguez  Jose Manuel Gutiérrez  Fernando J. Méndez 《Climatic change》2012,113(2):371-392

This paper analyzes changes of maximum temperatures in Europe, which are evaluated using two state-of-the-art regional climate models from the EU ENSEMBLES project. Extremes are expressed in terms of return values using a time-dependent generalized extreme value (GEV) model fitted to monthly maxima. Unlike the standard GEV method, this approach allows analyzing return periods at different time scales (monthly, seasonal, annual, etc). The study focuses on the end of the 20th century (1961?C2000), used as a calibration/validation period, and assesses the changes projected for the period 2061?C2100 considering the A1B emission scenario. The performance of the regional models is evaluated for each season of the calibration period against the high-resolution gridded E-OBS dataset, showing a similar South-North gradient with larger values over the Mediterranean basin. The inter-RCM changes in the bias pattern with respect to the E-OBS are larger than the bias resulting from a change in the boundary conditions from ERA-40 to ECHAM5 20c3m. The maximum temperature response to increased green house gases, as projected by the A1B scenario, is consistent for both RCMs. Under that scenario, results indicate that the increments for extremes (e.g. 40-year return values) will be two or three times higher than those for the mean seasonal temperatures, particularly during Spring and Summer in Southern Europe.  相似文献   

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries: revisiting the assumptions     

Esteve Corbera  Manuel Estrada  Katrina Brown 《Climatic change》2010,100(3-4):355-388

The United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC), at its thirteenth meeting in 2005 (COP-11), agreed to start a work program to explore a range of policy approaches and positive incentives for Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD). This process was further encouraged in the 2007 COP-13 with the explicit consideration of REDD activities as a means to enhance mitigation action by developing countries in the future. This paper outlines the context of this ongoing political process by reviewing the science indicating that land-use change is a key contributor of greenhouse emissions globally and the assumptions that REDD activities may be competitive—in terms of cost effectiveness—in comparison to other mitigation options. The paper then examines REDD proposals submitted by Parties before COP-13 and identifies key economic, technological, methodological and institutional challenges associated with their implementation. These proposals are discussed in the light of major drivers of deforestation and ongoing efforts to address deforestation. This reveals another set of challenges which, if not taken into account, may undermine REDD effectiveness. The paper aims to aid the policy process and contribute to the best possible design of a REDD framework under the future climate regime.  相似文献   

Simulated decadal oscillations of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a cold climate state     

Masakazu Yoshimori  Christoph C. Raible  Thomas F. Stocker  Manuel Renold 《Climate Dynamics》2010,34(1):101-121

The significance of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) for regional and hemispheric climate change requires a complete understanding using fully coupled climate models. Here we present a persistent, decadal oscillation in a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model. While the present study is limited by the lack of comparisons with paleo-proxy records, the purpose is to reveal a new theoretically interesting solution found in the fully-coupled climate model. The model exhibits two multi-century-long stable states with one dominated by decadal MOC oscillations. The oscillations involve an interaction between anomalous advective transport of salt and surface density in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Their time scale is fundamentally determined by the advection. In addition, there is a link between the MOC oscillations and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like sea level pressure anomalies. The analysis suggests an interaction between the NAO and an anomalous subpolar gyre circulation in which sea ice near and south of the Labrador Sea plays an important role in generating a large local thermal anomaly and a meridional temperature gradient. The latter induces a positive feedback via synoptic eddy activity in the atmosphere. In addition, the oscillation only appears when the Nordic Sea is completely covered by sea ice in winter, and deep convection is active only near the Irminger Sea. Such conditions are provided by a substantially colder North Atlantic climate than today.  相似文献   

Impacts of global environmental change and aquaculture expansion on marine ecosystems     

Gorka Merino  Manuel Barange  Christian Mullon  Lynda Rodwell 《Global Environmental Change》2010,20(4):586-596

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Injection and arrest of dykes: implications for volcanic hazards     

Agust Gudmundsson  Laura B. Marinoni  Joan Marti 《Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research》1999,88(1-2)

Dykes are the principal channels through which magma reaches the surface in volcanic eruptions. For this reason dykes observed in the field are commonly assumed to be feeders to lava flows. The actual proportion of dykes reaching the surface is, however, poorly known. In order to develop models for the purpose of estimating volcanic hazard, this proportion must be known. This follows because such models should not only consider the probability of dykes being injected from magma chambers during periods of unrest in the associated volcanoes, but also the probability of the injected dykes being arrested. This paper presents field data on several thousand dykes from Iceland and Tenerife (Canary Islands) indicating that many, and probably most, dykes become arrested at various crustal levels and never reach the surface to feed eruptions. Using the results of analytical and numerical models, it is shown that, for common loading conditions, the stress field in the vicinity of a magma chamber may favour the injection and propagation of dykes while the stress field at a certain distance from the chamber favours dyke arrest. This means that many dykes that are injected from the chamber propagate only for a very limited distance from the chamber to the point where they become arrested. The implication is that during periods of unrest in volcanoes, the probability of volcanic eruption is only a small fraction of the probability of dyke injection from the source magma chamber.  相似文献   

The Jiddat al Harasis 073 strewn field,Sultanate of Oman     

Edwin GNOS  Silvio LORENZETTI  Otto EUGSTER  A. J. Timothy JULL  Beda A. HOFMANN  Ali Al‐KATHIRI  Manuel EGGIMANN 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2009,44(3):375-387

Abstract— The recently discovered Jiddat al Harasis (JaH) 073 strewn field is the largest found so far in the Sultanate of Oman, covering an area of 19 × 6 km. The 3463 single stones collected range in weight from 52.2 kg down to <1 g (total weight 600.8 kg) and show a pronounced mass sorting. The strewn field shape can be approximated by a NW‐SE‐oriented ellipsoid, indicating an atmospheric entry from SE at a low angle relative to the surface. The meteorite belongs to the L6 ordinary chondrite group and shows S4 average shock grade. Smaller stones generally show a higher weathering grade resulting in a spread from W2 and W4. Enhanced weathering of the stones causing fragmentation after the fall is observed in sandy depressions. Five ¹⁴C measurements on stones of variable size and weathering grade yielded ¹⁴C from 3.8 to 49.9 dpm/kg. Three samples give a ¹⁴C/ ¹⁰Be age consistent with about 14.4 ka. For two samples the cosmogenic, trapped, and radiogenic noble gases were measured. The ratio of the ⁴He and ⁴⁰Ar gas retention ages of 0.29 ± 0.10 and that of the ³He and ²¹Ne cosmic ray exposure ages of 0.36 ± 0.08 Ma indicate that JaH 073 experienced a complex exposure history and lost ⁴He and ⁴⁰Ar due to a major collision. Fragmentation statistics indicate a single major atmospheric disruption and an originally relatively spherical shape of the object. Assuming the material collected represents the majority of fallen mass, and 90–99% of the original weight was lost by ablation, the pre‐atmospheric minimum radius of the meteoroid with density 3.4 g cm^?3would have been at least 75 cm.  相似文献   

Chemical and chronologic complexity in the convecting upper mantle: Evidence from the Taitao ophiolite, southern Chile   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Ruth F. Schulte  Manuel Schilling  Ryo Anma  James Farquhar  Mary F. Horan  Tsuyoshi Komiya  Philip M. Piccoli  Lynnette Pitcher  Richard J. Walker   《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2009,73(19):5793-5819

Exposure of the ca. 6 Ma Taitao ophiolite, Chile, located 50 km south of the Chile Triple Junction, allows detailed chemical and isotopic study of rocks that were recently extracted from the depleted mantle source of mid-ocean ridge basalts (DMM). Ultramafic and mafic rocks are examined for isotopic (Os, Sr, Nd, and O), and major and trace element compositions, including the highly siderophile elements (HSE). Taitao peridotites have compositions indicative of variable extents of partial melting and melt extraction. Low δ¹⁸O values for most whole rock samples suggest some open-system, high-temperature water–rock interaction, most likely during serpentinization, but relict olivine grains have δ¹⁸O values consistent with primary mantle values. Most of the peridotites analyzed for Nd–Sr isotopes have compositions consistent with estimates for the modern DMM, although several samples are characterized by ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd indicative of crustal contamination, most likely via interactions with seawater. The peridotites have initial ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os ratios that range widely from 0.1168 to 0.1288 (γ_Os = −8.0 to +1.1), averaging 0.1239 (γ_Os = −2.4), which is comparable to the average for modern abyssal peridotites. A negative correlation between the Mg^# of relict olivine grains and Os isotopic compositions of whole rock peridotites suggests that the Os isotopic compositions reflect primary mantle Re/Os fractionation produced by variable extents of partial melting at approximately 1.6 Ga. Recent re-melting at or near the spatially associated Chile Ridge further modified these rocks, and Re, and minor Pt and Pd were subsequently added back into some rocks by late-stage melt–rock or fluid–rock interactions.In contrast to the peridotites, approximately half of the mafic rocks examined have whole rock δ¹⁸O values within the range of mantle compositions, and their Nd and Sr isotopic compositions are all generally within the range of modern DMM. These rocks have initial ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os ratios, calculated for 6 Ma, that range from 0.126 (γ_Os = −1) to as high as 0.561 (γ_Os = +342). The Os isotopic systematics of each of these rocks may reflect derivation from mixed lithologies that include the peridotites, but may also include pyroxenites with considerably more radiogenic Os than the peridotites. This observation supports the view that suprachondritic Os present in MORB derives from mixed mantle source lithologies, accounting for some of the worldwide dichotomy in ¹⁸⁷Os/¹⁸⁸Os between MORB and abyssal peridotites.The collective results of this study suggest that this >500 km³ block of the mantle underwent at least two stages of melting. The first stage occurred at 1.6 Ga, after which the block remained isolated and unmixed within the DMM. A final stage of melting recently occurred at or near the Chile Ridge, resulting in the production of at least some of the mafic rocks. Convective stirring of this mantle domain during a >1 Ga period was remarkably inefficient, at least with regard to Os isotopes.  相似文献   

Precipitation and mixing properties of the “disordered” (Mn,Ca)CO₃ solid solution     

Dionisis Katsikopoulos  Ángeles Fernández-González  Manuel Prieto 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2009,73(20):6147-455

The enthalpy of mixing of the calcite-rhodochrosite (Ca,Mn)CO₃ solid solution was determined at 25 °C from calorimetric measurements of the enthalpy of precipitation of solids with different compositions. A detailed study of the broadening of powder X-ray diffraction peaks shows that most of the precipitates are compositionally homogeneous. All the experimental enthalpy of mixing (ΔH^m) values are positive and fit reasonably well (R² = 0.86) to a Guggenheim function of three terms: