Projected changes in tropical cyclone climatology and landfall in the Southwest Indian Ocean region under enhanced anthropogenic forcing     

Johan Malherbe  F. A. Engelbrecht  W. A. Landman 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(11-12):2867-2886

The conformal-cubic atmospheric model, a variable-resolution global model, is applied at high spatial resolution to perform simulations of present-day and future climate over southern Africa and over the Southwest Indian Ocean. The model is forced with the bias-corrected sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice of six coupled global climate models that contributed to Assessment Report 4 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. All six simulations are for the period 1961–2100, under the A2 emission scenario. Projections for the latter part of the 21st century indicate a decrease in the occurrence of tropical cyclones over the Southwest Indian Ocean adjacent to southern Africa, as well as a northward shift in the preferred landfall position of these systems over the southern African subcontinent. A concurrent increase in January to March rainfall is projected for northern Mozambique and southern Tanzania, with decreases projected further south over semi-arid areas such as the Limpopo River Basin where these systems make an important contribution as main cause of widespread heavy rainfall. It is shown that the projected changes in tropical cyclone attributes and regional rainfall occur in relation to changes in larger scale atmospheric temperature, pressure and wind profiles of the southern African region and adjacent oceans.  相似文献   

Urban green commons: Insights on urban common property systems   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Johan Colding  Stephan Barthel  Pim Bendt  Robbert Snep  Wim van der Knaap  Henrik Ernstson 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(5):1039-1051

The aim of this paper is to shed new light on urban common property systems. We deal with urban commons in relation to urban green-space management, referring to them as urban green commons. Applying a property-rights analytic perspective, we synthesize information on urban green commons from three case-study regions in Sweden, Germany, and South Africa, and elaborate on their role for biodiversity conservation in urban settings, with a focus on business sites. Cases cover both formally established types of urban green commons and bottom-up emerged community-managed habitats. As our review demonstrates, the right to actively manage urban green space is a key characteristic of urban green commons whether ownership to land is in the private, public, the club realm domain, or constitutes a hybrid of these. We discuss the important linkages among urban common property systems, social–ecological learning, and management of ecosystem services and biodiversity. Several benefits can be associated with urban green commons, such as a reduction of costs for ecosystem management and as designs for reconnecting city-inhabitants to the biosphere. The emergence of urban green commons appears closely linked to dealing with societal crises and for reorganizing cities; hence, they play a key role in transforming cities toward more socially and ecologically benign environments. While a range of political questions circumscribe the feasibility of urban green commons, we discuss their usefulness in management of different types of urban habitats, their political justification and limitation, their potential for improved biodiversity conservation, and conditions for their emergence. We conclude by postulating some general policy advice.  相似文献   

On the influence of the freshwater supply on the Baltic Sea mean salinity     

Johan Rodhe  Peter Winsor 《地球，A辑:动力气象学与海洋学》2002,54(2):175-186

The sensitivity of the Baltic Sea mean salinity to climatic changes of the freshwater supply is analyzed. The average salinity of the Baltic Sea is about 6‰. The low salinity is an effect of a large net freshwater supply and narrow and shallow connections with the North Sea. As a result of mixing in the entrance area, a large portion of the outflowing Baltic Sea water returns with the inflowing salty water and thus lowers the salinity of the Baltic Sea deep-water considerably. This recycling of the Baltic Sea water is a key process determining the salinity of today's Baltic Sea. The sensitivity of this recycling, and thus of the Baltic Sea salinity, to climatic changes in the freshwater supply is analyzed. A simple model is formulated for the variations of the Baltic Sea freshwater content. Historical data of the freshwater supply and the salinity in the Baltic Sea are used in the model to achieve an empirical expression relating variations of the recycling of Baltic Sea water to the variations of the freshwater supply. The recycling is found to be very sensitive to the freshwater supply. We find that an increase of freshwater supply of 30% is the level above which the Baltic Sea would turn into a lake. Recent climate modeling results suggest that river runoff to the Baltic Sea may increase dramatically in the future and thus possibly put the Baltic Sea into a new state.  相似文献   

Kamiokite,Fe2Mo3O8, a tetravalent molybdenum oxide: New data and occurrences     

Dr. Z. Johan  Dr. P. Picot 《Mineralogy and Petrology》1986,35(1):67-75

  相似文献   

INGRID: A near-infrared camera for the William Herschel Telescope     

Christopher Packham  Keith L. Thompson  Almudena Zurita  Johan H. Knapen  Ian Smail  Robert Greimel  Daniel F. M. Folha  Chris Benn  rew Humphrey  Rene Rutten  David Ciardi  Matthieu Bec  Richard Bingham  Simon Craig  Kevin Dee  Derek Ives  Paul Jolley  Peter Moore  Marti Pi i Puig  Simon Rees  Gordon Talbot  Sue Worswick 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,345(2):395-405

  相似文献   

Novel particle method for modelling the episodic collapse of soft coastal bluffs     

Johan Vandamme  Qingping Zou 《Geomorphology》2012,138(1):295-305

This paper presents a new, novel, particle-based Bluff Morphology Model (BMM), and with it investigates the stability, collapse, and equilibrium position of soft coastal bluffs (cliffs). This model combines a multiple wedge displacement method with an adapted Weakly Compressible Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (WCSPH) method. At first, the wedge method is applied to compute the stability of the bluff. Once the critical failure mechanism of the bluff slope has been identified, and if the factor of safety for the mechanism is less than 1, the adapted WCSPH method is used to predict the failure movement and residual shape of the slope. The model is validated against benchmark test cases of bluff stability for purely frictional, purely cohesive, and mixed strength bluff materials including 2D static water tables. The model predictions give a good correlation with the expected values, with medium resolution models producing errors of typically less than 2.0%. In addition, the prediction of lateral movement of a surveyed cliff and the dynamic collapse of a vertical bluff are computed, and compare well with published literature.  相似文献   

Non-vacuum static cylindrically symmetric solution and energy distribution in f(R) gravity     

M. Sharif  Sadia Arif 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2012,342(1):237-243

In this paper, we investigate static cylindrically symmetric solution in metric f(R) gravity by taking matter in the form of dust. The assumption of constant Ricci scalar curvature is taken to find the solution. The energy distribution of this solution is explored by applying Landau-Lifshitz energy-momentum complex. In addition, we explore the stability as well as constant scalar curvature conditions for some viable f(R) models along with their energy distribution. It is interesting to mention here that these models satisfy the above mentioned conditions.  相似文献   

Reply to comment on ‘Up‐scaling potential impacts on water flows from agricultural water interventions: opportunities and trade‐offs in the Osman Sagar catchment,Musi sub‐basin,India’. Hydrological Processes 27: 3905–3921 by Bouma et al.,          下载免费PDF全文

Kaushal K. Garg  Suhas P. Wani  Jennie Barron  Louise Karlberg  Johan Rockstrom 《水文研究》2014,28(8):3352-3355

  相似文献   

Post‐breakup burial and exhumation of the southern margin of Africa          下载免费PDF全文

Paul F. Green  Ian R. Duddy  Peter Japsen  Johan M. Bonow  Jean A. Malan 《Basin Research》2017,29(1):96-127

Despite many years of study, the processes involved in the development of the continental margin of southern Africa and the distinctive topography of the hinterland remain poorly understood. Previous thermochronological studies carried out within a monotonic cooling framework have failed to take into account constraints provided by Mesozoic sedimentary basins along the southern margin. We report apatite fission track analysis and vitrinite reflectance data in outcrop samples from the Late Jurassic to Early Cretaceous sedimentary fill of the Oudtshoorn, Gamtoos and Algoa Basins (Uitenhage Group), as well as isolated sedimentary remnants further west, plus underlying Paleozoic rocks (Cape Supergroup) and Permian‐Triassic sandstones from the Karoo Supergroup around the Great Escarpment. Results define a series of major regional cooling episodes. Latest Triassic to Early Jurassic cooling which began between 205 and 180 Ma is seen dominantly in basement flanks to the Algoa and Gamtoos Basins. This episode may have affected a wider region but in most places any effects have been overprinted by later events. The effects of Early Cretaceous (beginning between 145 and 130 Ma) and Early to mid‐Cretaceous (120–100 Ma) cooling are both delimited by major structures, while Late Cretaceous (85–75 Ma) cooling appears to have affected the whole region. These cooling events are all interpreted as dominantly reflecting exhumation. Higher Late Cretaceous paleotemperatures in samples from the core of the Swartberg Range, coupled with evidence for localised Cenozoic cooling, are interpreted as representing Cenozoic differential exhumation of the mountain range. Late Cretaceous paleotemperatures between 60°C and 90°C in outcropping Uitenhage Group sediments from the Oudtshoorn, Gamtoos and Algoa Basins require burial by between 1.2 and 2.2 km prior to Late Cretaceous exhumation. Because these sediments lie in depositional contact with underlying Paleozoic rocks in many places, relatively uniform Late Cretaceous paleotemperatures across most of the region, in samples of both basin fill and underlying basement, suggest the whole region may have been buried prior to Late Cretaceous exhumation. Cenozoic cooling (beginning between 30 and 20 Ma) is focussed mainly in mountainous regions and is interpreted as representing denudation which produced the modern‐day relief. Features such as the Great Escarpment are not related to continental break up, as is often supposed, but are much younger (post‐30 Ma). This history of post‐breakup burial and subsequent episodic exhumation is very different from conventional ideas of passive margin evolution, and requires a radical re‐think of models for development of continental margins.  相似文献   

Carbonate slope re-sedimentation in a tectonically-active setting (Western Sicily Cretaceous Escarpment,Italy)     

Vincenzo Randazzo  Johan Le Goff  Pietro Di Stefano  John Reijmer  Simona Todaro  Maria Simona Cacciatore 《Sedimentology》2020,67(5):2360-2391

Tectonic processes are widely considered as a mechanism causing carbonate platform margin instabilities leading to the emplacement of mass transport deposits and calciturbidites. However, only few examples establishing a clear link between tectonics and re-sedimentation processes are known from the literature. The two-dimensional and three-dimensional wire-cut walls of hundreds of quarries extracting ornamental limestones (for example, Perlato di Sicilia) from the Western Sicily Cretaceous Escarpment in Italy expose a series of mass transport deposits. The depositional architecture, spatial facies distribution and sedimentary features of these deposits were studied in detail. Thin section analysis was used to define the microfacies characteristics and to determine the age of the re-sedimented limestones. Eleven facies types grouped into four facies associations were recognized that defined specific depositional processes and environments. The stratigraphic architecture of the slope was reconstructed using four composite facies successions based on the detailed analysis and correlation of the field sections. The palaeoslope orientation was reconstructed based on the analysis of synsedimentary faults, slump scars and pinch-out geometries. The Western Sicily Cretaceous Escarpment was strongly influenced by synsedimentary transtensional tectonics in combination with magmatic processes, as suggested by the presence of tuffites and pillow lava intercalations within the re-sedimented carbonate series. These volcanics point to a major role of crustal shear as a trigger for mass transport deposit emplacement. The facies distribution along the Western Sicily Cretaceous Escarpment delivers new insights into the deformation processes accompanying the crustal extension of the Cretaceous western Tethys realm.  相似文献