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31.
32.
Climate variability and trends in downscaled high-resolution simulations and projections over Metropolitan France 总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1
Robert Vautard Thomas Noël Laurent Li Mathieu Vrac Eric Martin Philippe Dandin Julien Cattiaux Sylvie Joussaume 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(5-6):1419-1437
In order to fulfill the society demand for climate information at the spatial scale allowing impact studies, long-term high-resolution climate simulations are produced, over an area covering metropolitan France. One of the major goals of this article is to investigate whether such simulations appropriately simulate the spatial and temporal variability of the current climate, using two simulation chains. These start from the global IPSL-CM4 climate model, using two regional models (LMDz and MM5) at moderate resolution (15–20 km), followed with a statistical downscaling method in order to reach a target resolution of 8 km. The statistical downscaling technique includes a non-parametric method that corrects the distribution by using high-resolution analyses over France. First the uncorrected simulations are evaluated against a set of high-resolution analyses, with a focus on temperature and precipitation. Uncorrected downscaled temperatures suffer from a cold bias that is present in the global model as well. Precipitations biases have a season- and model-dependent behavior. Dynamical models overestimate rainfall but with different patterns and amplitude, but both have underestimations in the South-Eastern area (Cevennes mountains) in winter. A variance decomposition shows that uncorrected simulations fairly well capture observed variances from inter-annual to high-frequency intra-seasonal time scales. After correction, distributions match with analyses by construction, but it is shown that spatial coherence, persistence properties of warm, cold and dry episodes also match to a certain extent. Another aim of the article is to describe the changes for future climate obtained using these simulations under Scenario A1B. Results are presented on the changes between current and mid-term future (2021–2050) averages and variability over France. Interestingly, even though the same global climate model is used at the boundaries, regional climate change responses from the two models significantly differ. 相似文献
33.
Aude Lemonsu Raphaëlle Kounkou-Arnaud Julien Desplat Jean-Luc Salagnac Valéry Masson 《Climatic change》2013,116(3-4):679-692
The evolution of the Parisian urban climate under a changing climate is analyzed from long-term offline numerical integrations including a specific urban parameterization. This system is forced by meteorological conditions based on present-climate reanalyses (1970–2007), and climate projections (2071–2099) provided by global climate model simulations following two emission scenarios (A1B and A2). This study aims at quantifying the impact of climate change on air temperature within the city and in the surroundings. A systematic increase of 2-meter air temperature is found. In average according to the two scenarios, it reaches +?2.0/2.4°C in winter and +?3.5/5.0°C in summer for the minimum and maximum daily temperatures, respectively. During summer, the warming trend is more pronounced in the surrounding countryside than in Paris and suburbs due to the soil dryness. As a result, a substantial decrease of the strong urban heat islands is noted at nighttime, and numerous events with negative urban heat islands appear at daytime. Finally, a 30% decrease of the heating degree days is quantified in winter between present and future climates. Inversely, the summertime cooling degree days significantly increase in future climate whereas they are negligible in present climate. However, in terms of accumulated degree days, the increase of the demand in cooling remains smaller than the decrease of the demand in heating. 相似文献
34.
Florence Habets Julien Boé Michel Déqué Agnès Ducharne Simon Gascoin Ali Hachour Eric Martin Christian Pagé Eric Sauquet Laurent Terray Dominique Thiéry Ludovic Oudin Pascal Viennot 《Climatic change》2013,121(4):771-785
This study presents an analysis of climate-change impacts on the water resources of two basins located in northern France, by integrating four sources of uncertainty: climate modelling, hydrological modelling, downscaling methods, and emission scenarios. The analysis focused on the evolution of the water budget, the river discharges and piezometric heads. Seven hydrological models were used, from lumped rainfall-discharge to distributed hydrogeological models, and led to quite different estimates of the water-balance components. One of the hydrological models, CLSM, was found to be unable to simulate the increased water stress and was, thus, considered as an outlier even though it gave fair results for the present day compared to observations. Although there were large differences in the results between the models, there was a marked tendency towards a decrease of the water resource in the rivers and aquifers (on average in 2050 about ?14 % and ?2.5 m, respectively), associated with global warming and a reduction in annual precipitation (on average in 2050 +2.1 K and ?3 %, respectively). The uncertainty associated to climate models was shown to clearly dominate, while the three others were about the same order of magnitude and 3–4 times lower. In terms of impact, the results found in this work are rather different from those obtained in a previous study, even though two of the hydrological models and one of the climate models were used in both studies. This emphasizes the need for a survey of the climatic-change impact on the water resource. 相似文献
35.
Picard SODISM, a Space Telescope to Study the Sun from the Middle Ultraviolet to the Near Infrared 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
M. Meftah J.-F. Hochedez A. Irbah A. Hauchecorne P. Boumier T. Corbard S. Turck-Chièze S. Abbaki P. Assus E. Bertran P. Bourget F. Buisson M. Chaigneau L. Damé D. Djafer C. Dufour P. Etcheto P. Ferrero M. Hersé J.-P. Marcovici M. Meissonnier F. Morand G. Poiet J.-Y. Prado C. Renaud N. Rouanet M. Rouzé D. Salabert A.-J. Vieau 《Solar physics》2014,289(3):1043-1076
36.
A comment is made on the Edmonds' study of the low-wavenumber power of solar granulation. It is concluded that its one-dimensional power spectrum is biased, and that the corresponding two-dimensional power spectrum shows negative parts. 相似文献
37.
Olivier?FéméniasEmail author Nicolas?Coussaert Julien?Berger Jean-Claude?C.?Mercier Daniel?Demaiffe 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2004,148(1):13-28
Mantle xenoliths from Puy Beaunit (French Massif Central) are compositionally varied, ranging from relatively fertile spinel lherzolites to refractory spinel dunites. Fertile peridotites have registered a modal (amphibole-bearing lherzolites) and cryptic metasomatic event that took place before the last Permian (257 Ma) melting episode. Depletion processes have been constrained by chemical modelling: the depletion is related to different degrees of partial melting, but two major melt extraction episodes are needed to explain the range of major element composition. The second event was responsible for the local large-scale dunitification of former residues. The first melting event (F25%) and metasomatic enrichment are attributed to an ancient fluid and/or liquid infiltration that could be related to a pre-Variscan regional subduction (located to the north of the Beaunit area). Texture acquisition and major deformation of the mantle xenoliths were sub-contemporaneous of the subduction and would result from lithospheric delamination. The second melting event (F17%) produced high-Mg basalts with calc-alkaline trace element signature that gave rise to the Permian underplating episode recognised in western Europe. 相似文献
38.
The Antarctic Peninsula has warmed significantly since the 1950s. This pronounced and isolated warming trend is collectively captured by 29 twentieth-century climate hindcasts participating in the version 3 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. To understand the factors driving warming trends in the hindcasts, we examine trends in Peninsula region’s atmospheric heat budget in every simulation. We find that atmospheric latent heat release increases in nearly all hindcasts. These increases are generally anthropogenic in origin, and account for about 60% of the ensemble-mean warming trend in the Peninsula. They are driven primarily by well-understood features of the anthropogenic intensification of global hydrological cycle. As sea surface temperature increases, moisture contained in atmospheric flows increases. When such flows are forced to ascend the Peninsula’s topography, enhanced local latent heat release results. The mechanism driving the warming of the Antarctic Peninsula is therefore clear in the models. Evidence for a similar mechanism operating in the real world is seen in the increasing snow accumulation rates inferred from ice cores drilled in the Peninsula. However, the relative importance of this mechanism and other processes previously identified as potentially causing the observed warming, such as the recent sea ice retreat in the Bellingshausen Sea, is difficult to assess. Thus the relevance of the simulated warming mechanism to the observed warming is unclear, in spite of its robustness in the models. 相似文献
39.
Uncertainties in European summer precipitation changes: role of large scale circulation 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
Climate models suggest that anthropogenic emissions are likely to induce an important drying during summer over most of Europe in the late 21st century. However, the amplitude of the associated decrease in precipitation strongly varies among the different climate models. In order to reduce this spread, it is first necessary to identify its causes and the associated physical mechanisms. Consequently, the focus of this paper is to better estimate the role of large scale circulation (LSC) in precipitation changes over Europe using a multi-model framework and then to characterize the LSC changes using the weather regime paradigm. We show that LSC changes directly lead to a decrease of precipitation over northwestern Europe. This circulation-driven decrease in rainfall is mainly linked to an increase (decrease) of the occurrence of positive (negative) phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation regime. LSC is also responsible for a significant part of the models spread in precipitation changes over these regions. Over southern Europe, the role of LSC changes on multi-model mean precipitation changes is generally weak. We also show that the precipitation anomalies directly induced by LSC modifications seem to be further amplified through local feedbacks. 相似文献
40.
We show that intermodel variations in the anthropogenically-forced evolution of September sea ice extent (SSIE) in the Arctic stem mainly from two factors: the baseline climatological sea ice thickness (SIT) distribution, and the local climate feedback parameter. The roles of these two factors evolve over the course of the twenty-first century. The SIT distribution is the most important factor in current trends and those of coming decades, accounting for roughly half the intermodel variations in SSIE trends. Then, its role progressively decreases, so that around the middle of the twenty-first century the local climate feedback parameter becomes the dominant factor. Through this analysis, we identify the investments in improved simulation of Arctic climate necessary to reduce uncertainties both in projections of sea ice loss over the coming decades and in the ultimate fate of the ice pack. 相似文献