Deflection and Rotation of CMEs from Active Region 11158     

Christina Kay  Nat Gopalswamy  Hong Xie  Seiji Yashiro 《Solar physics》2017,292(6):78

Between 13 and 16 February 2011, a series of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) erupted from multiple polarity inversion lines within active region 11158. For seven of these CMEs we employ the graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) flux rope model to determine the CME trajectory using both Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and coronagraph images. We then use the model called Forecasting a CME’s Altered Trajectory (ForeCAT) for nonradial CME dynamics driven by magnetic forces to simulate the deflection and rotation of the seven CMEs. We find good agreement between ForeCAT results and reconstructed CME positions and orientations. The CME deflections range in magnitude between \(10^{\circ }\) and \(30^{\circ}\). All CMEs are deflected to the north, but we find variations in the direction of the longitudinal deflection. The rotations range between \(5^{\circ}\) and \(50^{\circ}\) with both clockwise and counterclockwise rotations. Three of the CMEs begin with initial positions within \(2^{\circ}\) from one another. These three CMEs are all deflected primarily northward, with some minor eastward deflection, and rotate counterclockwise. Their final positions and orientations, however, differ by \(20^{\circ}\) and \(30^{\circ}\), respectively. This variation in deflection and rotation results from differences in the CME expansion and radial propagation close to the Sun, as well as from the CME mass. Ultimately, only one of these seven CMEs yielded discernible in situ signatures near Earth, although the active region faced toward Earth throughout the eruptions. We suggest that the differences in the deflection and rotation of the CMEs can explain whether each CME impacted or missed Earth.  相似文献   

The XMM Cluster Survey: forecasting cosmological and cluster scaling-relation parameter constraints     

Martin Sahlén  Pedro T. P. Viana  rew R. Liddle  A. Kathy Romer  Michael Davidson  Mark Hosmer  Ed Lloyd-Davies  Kivanc Sabirli  Chris A. Collins  Peter E. Freeman  Matt Hilton  Ben Hoyle  Scott T. Kay  Robert G. Mann  Nicola Mehrtens  Christopher J. Miller  Robert C. Nichol  S. Adam Stanford  Michael J. West  † 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,397(2):577-607

We forecast the constraints on the values of  σ₈, Ω_m  and cluster scaling-relation parameters which we expect to obtain from the XMM Cluster Survey (XCS). We assume a flat Λ cold dark matter Universe and perform a Monte Carlo Markov Chain analysis of the evolution of the number density of galaxy clusters that takes into account a detailed simulated selection function. Comparing our current observed number of clusters shows good agreement with predictions. We determine the expected degradation of the constraints as a result of self-calibrating the luminosity–temperature relation (with scatter), including temperature measurement errors, and relying on photometric methods for the estimation of galaxy cluster redshifts. We examine the effects of systematic errors in scaling relation and measurement error assumptions. Using only  ( T , z )  self-calibration, we expect to measure Ω_m to ±0.03 (and  Ω_Λ  to the same accuracy assuming flatness), and σ₈ to ±0.05, also constraining the normalization and slope of the luminosity–temperature relation to ±6 and ±13 per cent (at 1σ), respectively, in the process. Self-calibration fails to jointly constrain the scatter and redshift evolution of the luminosity–temperature relation significantly. Additional archival and/or follow-up data will improve on this. We do not expect measurement errors or imperfect knowledge of their distribution to degrade constraints significantly. Scaling-relation systematics can easily lead to cosmological constraints 2σ or more away from the fiducial model. Our treatment is the first exact treatment to this level of detail, and introduces a new 'smoothed ML' (Maximum Likelihood) estimate of expected constraints.  相似文献   

Risk perception bias, self-reporting of illness, and the validity of reported results in an epidemiologic study of recreational water associated illnesses     

Fleisher JM  Kay D 《Marine pollution bulletin》2006,52(3):264-268

Epidemiologic studies of water associated illness often have to rely on self-reported symptoms of the outcome illness(es) under study. Individual participant's perception of risk, in theory, can affect the validity of self-reported symptoms. The magnitude and effect of possible "risk perception bias" was evaluated as part of a series of randomized trials designed to assess infectious disease transmission via exposure to marine recreational waters with modest sewage contamination. All study subjects were blinded to both their individual indices of exposure and the outcome illnesses under study. Of the five outcome illnesses studied, the effect of "risk perception bias" only effected one: skin ailments. Although analysis of crude rates of skin ailments showed the exposed group (bathers) to be 3.5 times more likely to report skin ailments relative to the non-exposed (non-bathers), when the data was stratified by any perceived health risk of bathing in such waters, this association was shown to be spurious in nature. Bathers having pre-conceived notions of any health risk due to the exposure were 10.63 times more likely to report skin ailments relative to the unexposed (non-bathers) (95% CI 2.36-47.8, P = 0.0002), while bathers without any pre-conceived notion of risk were no more likely to report skin ailments relative to non-bathers (OR = 0.60, 95% CI 0.11-3.24, P = 0.71). Further stratification by exposure grouping showed bathers with pre-conceived notions of excess risk to be 4.78 times more likely to report skin ailments relative to bathers without any notion of excess risk (95% CI 1.04-21.86, P = 0.03), while among non-bathers those with pre-conceived notions of risk were 3.70 times less likely to report skin ailments relative to non-bathers without any pre-conceived notion of risk (95% CI 0.70-19.60, P = 0.10). This study shows that "risk perception bias" can be strong enough to lead to spurious associations in the presence of self-reported symptoms, and should be controlled for in future epidemiologic studies of recreational water associated illnesses and other water associated environmental exposures where the use of self-reported symptoms cannot be avoided.  相似文献   

Climate change and river flooding: part 1 classifying the sensitivity of British catchments   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Christel Prudhomme  Sue Crooks  Alison L. Kay  Nick Reynard 《Climatic change》2013,118(3-4):933-948

Effective national and regional policy guidance on climate change adaptation relies on robust scientific evidence. This two-part series of papers develops and implements a novel scenario-neutral framework enabling an assessment of the vulnerability of flood flows in British catchments to climatic change, to underpin the development of guidance for the flood management community. In this first part, the sensitivity of the 20-year return period flood peak (RP20) to changes in precipitation (P), temperature (T) and potential evapotranspiration (PE) is systematically assessed for 154 catchments. A sensitivity domain of 4,200 scenarios is applied combining 525 and 8 sets of P and T/PE mean monthly changes, respectively, with seasonality incorporated using a single-phase harmonic function. Using the change factor method, the percentage change in RP20 associated with each scenario of the sensitivity domain is calculated, giving flood response surfaces for each catchment. Using a clustering procedure on the response surfaces, the 154 catchments are divided into nine groups: flood sensitivity types. These sensitivity types show that some catchments are (very) sensitive to changes in P but others buffer the response, while the location of catchments of the same type does not show any strong geographical pattern. These results reflect the range of hydrological processes found in Britain, and demonstrate the potential importance of catchment properties (physical and climatic) in the propagation of change in climate to change in floods, and so in characterising the sensitivity types (covered in the companion paper).  相似文献   

Distribution, magnitude and characterization of the toxicity of Ukrainian estuarine sediments     

Burgess RM  Konovets IM  Kipnis LS  Lyashenko AV  Grintsov VA  Petrov AN  Terletskaya AV  Milyukin MV  Povolotskii MI  Demchenko VY  Bogoslovskaya TA  Topkin YV  Vorobyova TV  Portis LM  Ho KT 《Marine pollution bulletin》2011,62(11):2442-2462

During the Soviet era, Ukraine was an important industrial and agricultural region of the Soviet Union. This industrial and agricultural activity resulted in contamination of Ukraine’s estuaries with legacy anthropogenic pollutants. Investigations on the toxicological effects of this estuarine contamination have been limited. For this research, we measured the toxicity of contaminated sediments from four Ukrainian estuaries to several aquatic organisms over 3 years. Sediment chemical analyses and whole sediment toxicity identification evaluations (TIEs) were also performed to determine the classes of contaminants contributing to toxicity. Toxic sediments were observed in several of the Ukrainian estuaries and chemical analyses of the sediments demonstrated anthropogenic contaminants were widely distributed. Contaminants were also detected in macrobenthic organisms collected from the sediments. Several lines of evidence, including TIEs, indicated hydrophobic organic chemicals (HOCs) were contributing substantially to observed toxicity. This information can guide environmental managers to prioritize portions of the estuaries requiring remediation.  相似文献   

Pocho volcanic rocks and the melting of depleted continental lithosphere above a shallowly dipping subduction zone in the central Andes   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Suzanne Mahlburg Kay  Carlos E. Gordillo 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1994,117(1):25-44

The Late Miocene (7.9 to 4.5 Ma) Pocho volcanic field in Argentina occurs 700 km east of the Chile trench over the modern shallowly dipping Andean Wadati-Benioff zone near 32° S latitude in Argentina. The field is located in the Sierra de Cordoba which is the easternmost Laramide-style, block-faulted range in the Sierras Pampeanas (Pampean ranges). The arrival of the shallowly dipping slab initiated both volcanism and the uplift of the Sierra de Cordoba. Pocho rocks (52% to 68% SiO₂; FeO^*/MgO>2.2) comprise an older (7.5±0.5 Ma) high-K and a younger (5.3±0.7 Ma) shoshonitic series. Mineralogic data and fractionation models show that crystallization occurred under hydrous, oxidizing conditions, which were most extreme in the high-K series. An unusual pattern of successively lower REE at higher SiO₂ concentrations can be modeled by sphene, apatite and amphibole removal. An arc-like trace element signature attributed to an arc component is strongest in the younger shoshonitic series. An important depleted lower crustal/mantle lithospheric source component in both series is indicated by non-radiogenic Sr and Pb isotopic ratios at _Nd= 0 to + 2, low Rb/Sr ratios, and low U and Th concentrations. This depleted signature contrasts with the enriched one in potassic back-arc Central Volcanic Zone (CVZ) lavas over the steeper subduction zone to the north and is attributed to several processes in the shallow subduction zone. First, deep crustal (MASH) processes in the nearly normal thickness crust beneath Pocho incorporated depleted Proterozoic basement components, and not complexly mixed structurally thickened crustal components as in the CVZ. Second, the association of Pocho volcanism with the arrival of the slab allowed little time for modification of the mantle by subduction components. Third, Miocene shallowing of the subduction zone beneath the flat-slab required thinning of both the astenosphere and the subcontinental lithosphere. Thus, an important subcrustal component could be from blocks removed from the base of the lithosphere to the west and recycled into the asthenosphere. Similar magmatic sources would have existed during Laramide shallow subduction in western North America.Deceased  相似文献   

Can simulations reproduce the observed temperature–mass relation for clusters of galaxies?     

Peter A.Thomas  OrrarujeeMuanwong  Scott T.Kay  rew R.Liddle 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2002,330(2):L48-L52

It has become increasingly apparent that traditional hydrodynamical simulations of galaxy clusters are unable to reproduce the observed properties of galaxy clusters, in particular overpredicting the mass corresponding to a given cluster temperature. Such overestimation may lead to systematic errors in results using galaxy clusters as cosmological probes, such as constraints on the density perturbation normalization σ ₈. In this paper we demonstrate that inclusion of additional gas physics, namely radiative cooling and a possible pre-heating of gas prior to cluster formation, is able to bring the temperature–mass relation in the innermost parts of clusters into good agreement with recent determinations by Allen, Schmidt & Fabian using Chandra data.  相似文献   

A comparison of three approaches to spatial generalization of rainfall–runoff models     

A. L. Kay  D. A. Jones  S. M. Crooks  A. Calver  N. S. Reynard 《水文研究》2006,20(18):3953-3973

The generalization of the parameters of rainfall–runoff models, to enable application at ungauged sites, is an important and ongoing area of research. This paper compares the performance of three alternative methods of generalization, for two parameter‐sparse conceptual models (PDM and TATE), specifically for use in flood frequency estimation using continuous simulation. Two of the methods are based on fitting regression relationships between catchment properties and calibrated parameter values, using weighted or sequential regression (with weights based on estimates of calibration uncertainty), and the third is based on the use of pooling groups, defined through measures of site‐similarity based on catchment properties. The study uses a relatively large sample of catchments in Britain. For the PDM, the site‐similarity method performs best, but not greatly better than either regression method, so there may be cases where the use of regression would be preferable. For the TATE model, weighted regression performs best (with a very similar level of performance to that of the PDM with site‐similarity), whereas site‐similarity performs worst (due to poor performance for catchments with higher baseflow), indicating that the choice of model and generalization method should not be separated. The use of sequential regression, which was developed to try to allow for parameter interdependence, shows no clear advantage for either model. Other than the poor performance of the TATE model with site‐similarity for catchments with a higher baseflow index, there are no clear relationships between performance of any model/method and catchment type. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Simulated X-ray cluster temperature maps     

Lesley I. Onuora  Scott T. Kay  Peter A. Thomas 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,341(4):1246-1252

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The power spectrum amplitude from clusters revisited: σ₈ using simulations with pre-heating and cooling     

Pedro T. P. Viana  Scott T. Kay  rew R. Liddle  Orrarujee Muanwong  Peter A. Thomas 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2003,346(1):319-326

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