Nant-y-moch grassland improvement study,A. M. Roberts,J. A. Hudson and G. Roberts,Institute of Hydrology,Report No. 104, 1990. No. of pages: 85. Price: £7.00. ISBN 0-948540-16-8     

Keith Richards 《地球表面变化过程与地形》1992,17(6):635-635

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Procedures in sedimentary petrology: E. Carver (Editor). Wiley,New York,N.Y., 1971, 653 pp., £ 11.75.     

Keith A.W. Crook 《Sedimentary Geology》1972

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Proceedings of the third conference on origins of life-planetary astronomy: edited by Lynn Margulis. Springer-Verlag,New York (1973) 268 pp. $14–80     

Keith A Kvenvolden 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》1973,37(12):2707-2708

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Reply to Discussion of “Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example”*     

Ida K. Westerberg  Giuliano Di Baldassarre  Keith J. Beven  Gemma Coxon  Tobias Krueger 《水文科学杂志》2020,65(Z2):2001-2003

ABSTRACT

Ertsen discusses the representation of reality and uncertainty in our paper, raising three critical points. In response to the first, we agree that discussion of different interpretations of the concept of uncertainty is important when developing perceptual models – making different uncertainty interpretations explicit was a key motivation behind our method. Secondly, we do not, as Ertsen suggests, deny anyone who is not a “certified” scientist to have relevant knowledge. The elicitation of diverse views by discussing perceptual models is a basis for open discussion and decision making. Thirdly, Ertsen suggests that it is not useful to treat socio-hydrological systems as if they exist. We argue that we act as “pragmatic realists” in most practical applications by treating socio-hydrological systems as an external reality that can be known. But the uncertainty that arises from our knowledge limitations needs to be recognized, as it may impact on practical decision making and associated costs.  相似文献   

Marine policy and disarmament     

Keith D. Suter 《Marine Policy》1983,7(3):213-215

Disarmament has again become a major public concern in many nations. The main manifestations of this development have been demonstrations and marches and mass media attention to the possible consequences of a nuclear war. Less publicized has been governmental work, including that at the United Nations, in negotiating disarmament treaties.  相似文献   

The Solar program of the Kitt Peak National Observatory     

A. Keith Pierce 《Solar physics》1969,6(3):498-503

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Generation of complete theoretical seismograms for SH—     

Keith Nakanishi  Fred Schwab  Leon Knopoff 《Geophysical Journal International》1977,48(3):525-530

Summary. We report the initial results of our attempts to obtain theoretical seismograms for direct comparison with the experimental time series obtained with the long-period instruments of the WWSSN. The entire theoretical seismogram, including both body waves and surface waves, can be generated for a spherical, anelastic earth by simple inverse Fourier transformation of the sum of the propagating fundamental and higher-mode surface waves. The key to success in reproducing the WWSSN records involves the number of modes, and the minimum period used in these computations; here we use eight modes and a minimum period of 2 s. Efficient computational algorithms make it possible to handle up to 2000 frequency points for each mode; approximately 200 layers are used to model the radial heterogeneity of the earth; attenuation is treated exactly. Examples are given of the SH theoretical seismograms resulting from dislocation sources buried at various depths in the Earth.  相似文献   

Influence of uncertain boundary conditions and model structure on flood inundation predictions   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Florian Pappenberger  Patrick Matgen  Keith J. Beven  Jean-Baptiste Henry  Laurent Pfister  Paul Fraipont de 《Advances in water resources》2006

In this study, the GLUE methodology is applied to establish the sensitivity of flood inundation predictions to uncertainty of the upstream boundary condition and bridges within the modelled region. An understanding of such uncertainties is essential to improve flood forecasting and floodplain mapping. The model has been evaluated on a large data set. This paper shows uncertainty of the upstream boundary can have significant impact on the model results, exceeding the importance of model parameter uncertainty in some areas. However, this depends on the hydraulic conditions in the reach e.g. internal boundary conditions and, for example, the amount of backwater within the modelled region. The type of bridge implementation can have local effects, which is strongly influenced by the bridge geometry (in this case the area of the culvert). However, the type of bridge will not merely influence the model performance within the region of the structure, but also other evaluation criteria such as the travel time. This also highlights the difficulties in establishing which parameters have to be more closely examined in order to achieve better fits. In this study no parameter set or model implementation that fulfils all evaluation criteria could be established. We propose four different approaches to this problem: closer investigation of anomalies; introduction of local parameters; increasing the size of acceptable error bounds; and resorting to local model evaluation. Moreover, we show that it can be advantageous to decouple the classification into behavioural and non-behavioural model data/parameter sets from the calculation of uncertainty bounds.  相似文献   

Towards medium-term (order of months) morphodynamic modelling of the Teign estuary, UK     

Marcos E. C. Bernardes  Mark A. Davidson  Keith R. Dyer  Ken J. George 《Ocean Dynamics》2006,56(3-4):186-197

The main objective of this paper is to address the principal mechanisms involved in the medium-term (order of months to years) morphodynamic evolution of estuaries through the application of a process-based numerical modelling. The Teign estuary (Teignmouth, UK) is the selected site. The system is forced by the macrotidal semi-diurnal tide in the English Channel and is perturbed to a minor extent by high river discharge events (freshets). Although waves have a definite influence on the adjacent coastal area, Wells (Teignmouth Quay Development Environmental Statement: Changes to Physical Processes. Report R.984c:140. ABP Marine Environmental Research Ltd., Southampton, 2002b) suggested that swell waves do not enter the estuary. Hence, wave effects are neglected in this study, as only tides and the river discharge are taken into account. The sediment grain size is highly variable, but mainly sandy. Within the frame of the COAST3D project (), four bathymetric surveys of the adjacent coastal area were carried out at a nearly weekly intervals. The outer estuary and the adjacent coastal area were also surveyed every 6 months as part of the COASTVIEW project (). Based on these data and on continuously measured parameters, such as water level, waves, wind and river discharge, numerical modelling of the morphodynamic processes can be tested. To replicate the morphological changes in the medium-term within a feasible simulation time, forcing conditions are reduced through the use of an input reduction method (called ensemble technique). In this study, simulations are based on the coupling between Telemac-2D and its non-cohesive sediment transport module, Sisyphe (version 5.3 for both modules). Three different sediment transport formulae were tested: (1) Engelund and Hansen (A monograph on sediment transport in alluvial streams, 3rd edn. Technological University of Denmark, Copenhagen, 1967) including the modifications proposed by Chollet and Cunge (J Hydraul Eng 17(1):1–13, 1979); (2) Bijker (Mechanics of sediment transport by the combination of waves and current. In: Design and reliability of coastal structures. 23rd international conference on Coastal Engineering, pp 147–173, 1968) and (3) Soulsby (Dynamics of Marine Sands. A manual for practical applications. HR Wallingford, Wallingford, p 142, 1997) modified version of van Rijn [J Hydraul Eng 110(10):1431–1456, 1984a, J Hydraul Eng 110(11):1613–1641, 1984b] formulation. Both a qualitative (i.e. visual comparison) and a quantitative tool [Brier Skill Score (BSS); described in Sutherland et al. in Coast Eng 51:917–939, 2004b] are applied to assess the similarity of simulations when compared to model predictions and observations. Tests confirmed the reliability and time efficiency of the ensemble technique, since it reproduced very well the results of a reference run, a computation based on the observed boundary conditions. For the spring-neap cycle modelled, the BSS was of 0.91 (a perfect modelling would have a BSS of 1), with a reduction in the simulation time on the order of 80%. For the 6-month-period simulation, results were also excellent: BSS=0.92 and a computer time reduction of 85%. In principle, this method has the advantage of being applied to any process-based numerical model.  相似文献   

Reducing standard errors by incorporating spatial autocorrelation into a measurement scheme for soil carbon credits     

Siân Mooney  Ken Gerow  John Antle  Susan Capalbo  Keith Paustian 《Climatic change》2007,80(1-2):55-72

Several studies have suggested that geostatistical techniques could be employed to reduce overall transactions costs associated with contracting for soil C credits by increasing the efficacy of sampling protocols used to measure C-credits. In this paper, we show how information about the range of spatial autocorrelation can be used in a measurement scheme to reduce the size of the confidence intervals that bound estimates of the mean number of C-credits generated per hectare. A tighter confidence interval around the mean number of C-credits sequestered could increase producer payments for each hectare enrolled in a contract to supply C-credits. An empirical application to dry land cropping systems in three regions of Montana shows that information about the spatial autocorrelation exhibited by soil C could be extremely valuable for reducing transactions costs associated with contracts for C-credits but the benefits are not uniform across all regions or cropping systems. Accounting for spatial autocorrelation greatly reduced the standard errors and narrowed the confidence intervals associated with sample estimates of the mean number of C-credits produced per hectare. For the payment mechanism considered in this paper, tighter confidence intervals around the mean number of C-credits created per hectare enrolled could increase producer payments by more than 100 percent under a C-contract.  相似文献