Opportunistic natural experiments using digital telemetry: a transit disruption case study     

Kevin Stanley  L. Kurt Kreuger  Priyasree Bhowmik  Narjes Shojaati  Alexa Elliott 《International journal of geographical information science》2016,30(9):1853-1872

ABSTRACT

In the past decade society has entered a technological period characterized by handheld computing that supports input and processing from numerous sensors. Today’s mobile phones offer the ability to integrate input from sensors monitoring various external and internal sources (e.g., accelerometer, magnetometer, microphone, GPS, wireless Internet, and Bluetooth). Furthermore, these raw inputs can be integrated and processed in ways that can offer novel representations of human behaviour. As a result, new opportunities to examine and better understand human spatial behaviour are available; one such application is the constant monitoring of a group of people over an extended period of time. Such a research setting lends itself to natural experiments that emerge as a result of regular and on-going observations. We report here on the observation of a natural experiment that took place in the context of a month-long monitoring study of 28 participants using mobile phone-based ubiquitous sensor monitoring. The implications for public health and transportation planning are discussed.  相似文献   

Spatial Modeling of Geometallurgical Properties: Techniques and a Case Study     

Jared L. Deutsch  Kevin Palmer  Clayton V. Deutsch  Jozef Szymanski  Thomas H. Etsell 《Natural Resources Research》2016,25(2):161-181

High-resolution spatial numerical models of metallurgical properties constrained by geological controls and more extensively by measured grade and geomechanical properties constitute an important part of geometallurgy. Geostatistical and other numerical techniques are adapted and developed to construct these high-resolution models accounting for all available data. Important issues that must be addressed include unequal sampling of the metallurgical properties versus grade assays, measurements at different scale, and complex nonlinear averaging of many metallurgical parameters. This paper establishes techniques to address each of these issues with the required implementation details and also demonstrates geometallurgical mineral deposit characterization for a copper–molybdenum deposit in South America. High-resolution models of grades and comminution indices are constructed, checked, and are rigorously validated. The workflow demonstrated in this case study is applicable to many other deposit types.  相似文献   

Modeling the Population Effects of Hypoxia on Atlantic Croaker (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Micropogonias undulatus</Emphasis>) in the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico: Part 1—Model Description and Idealized Hypoxia     

Kenneth A. Rose  Sean Creekmore  Peter Thomas  J. Kevin Craig  Md Saydur Rahman  Rachael Miller Neilan 《Estuaries and Coasts》2018,41(1):233-254

We developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model to analyze how hypoxia effects on reproduction, growth, and mortality of Atlantic croaker in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico lead to population-level responses. The model follows the hourly growth, mortality, reproduction, and movement of individuals on a 300 × 800 spatial grid of 1-km² cells for 140 years. Chlorophyll-a concentration, water temperature, and dissolved oxygen (DO) were specified daily for each grid cell and repeated for each year of the simulation. A bioenergetics model was used to represent growth, mortality was assumed stage- and age-dependent, and the movement behavior of juveniles and adults was modeled based on temperature and avoidance of low DO. Hypoxia effects were imposed using exposure effect submodels that converted time-varying exposures to low DO to reduced hourly growth, increased hourly mortality, and reduced annual fecundity. Results showed that 100 years of either mild or intermediate hypoxia produced small reductions in population abundance, while repeated severe hypoxia caused a 19% reduction in long-term population abundance. Relatively few individuals were exposed to low DO each hour, but many individuals experienced some exposure. The response was dominated by a 5% average reduction in annual fecundity of individuals. Under conditions of random sequences of mild, intermediate, and severe hypoxia years occurring in proportion to their historical frequency, the model predicted a 10% decrease in the long-term population abundance of croaker. A companion paper substitutes hourly DO values from a three-dimensional water quality model for the idealized hypoxia and results in a more realistic population reduction of about 25%.  相似文献   

When hazard avoidance is not an option: lessons learned from monitoring the postdisaster Oso landslide,USA     

Reid  Mark E.  Godt  Jonathan W.  LaHusen  Richard G.  Slaughter  Stephen L.  Badger  Thomas C.  Collins  Brian D.  Schulz  William H.  Baum  Rex L.  Coe  Jeffrey A.  Harp  Edwin L.  Schmidt  Kevin M.  Iverson  Richard M.  Smith  Joel B.  Haugerud  Ralph A.  George  David L. 《Landslides》2021,18(9):2993-3009

On 22 March 2014, a massive, catastrophic landslide occurred near Oso, Washington, USA, sweeping more than 1 km across the adjacent valley flats and killing 43 people. For the following 5 weeks, hundreds of workers engaged in an exhaustive search, rescue, and recovery effort directly in the landslide runout path. These workers could not avoid the risks posed by additional large-scale slope collapses. In an effort to ensure worker safety, multiple agencies cooperated to swiftly deploy a monitoring and alerting system consisting of sensors, automated data processing and web-based display, along with defined communication protocols and clear calls to action for emergency management and search personnel. Guided by the principle that an accelerating landslide poses a greater threat than a steadily moving or stationary mass, the system was designed to detect ground motion and vibration using complementary monitoring techniques. Near real-time information was provided by continuous GPS, seismometers/geophones, and extensometers. This information was augmented by repeat-assessment techniques such as terrestrial and aerial laser scanning and time-lapse photography. Fortunately, no major additional landsliding occurred. However, we did detect small headscarp failures as well as slow movement of the remaining landslide mass with the monitoring system. This was an exceptional response situation and the lessons learned are applicable to other landslide disaster crises. They underscore the need for cogent landslide expertise and ready-to-deploy monitoring equipment, the value of using redundant monitoring techniques with distinct goals, the benefit of clearly defined communication protocols, and the importance of continued research into forecasting landslide behavior to allow timely warning.

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Reducing wind power curtailment in China: comparing the roles of coal power flexibility and improved dispatch     

Hong Lu  Qionghui Li  Ryan Wiser  Kevin Porter 《Climate Policy》2019,19(5):623-635

Renewable energy curtailment is a critical issue in China, impeding the country’s transition to clean energy and its ability to meet its climate goals. This paper analyzes the impacts of more flexible coal-fired power generation and improved power dispatch towards reducing wind power curtailment. A unit commitment model for power dispatch is used to conduct the analysis, with different scenarios demonstrating the relative impacts of more flexible coal-fired generation and improved power dispatch. Overall, while we find both options are effective in reducing wind power curtailment, we find that improved power dispatch is more effective: (1) the effect of ramping down coal-fired generators to reduce wind power curtailment lessens as the minimum output of coal-fired generation is decreased; and (2) as a result, at higher wind capacity levels, wind curtailment is much more significantly reduced with improved power dispatch than with decreased minimum output of coal-fired generation.

Key policy insights

• China should emphasize both coal power flexibility and dispatch in its policies to minimize renewable power curtailment and promote clean energy transition.

• China should accelerate the process of implementing spot market and marginal cost-based economic dispatch, while making incremental improvements to the existing equal share dispatch in places not ready for spot market.

• A key step in improving of dispatch is incorporating renewable power forecasts into the unit commitment process and updating the daily unit commitment based on the latest forecast result.

• China should expand the coal power flexibility retrofit programme and promote the further development of the ancillary service market to encourage more flexibility from coal-fired generation.

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High-frequency climate oscillations drive ice-off variability for Northern Hemisphere lakes and rivers     

Schmidt  Daniel F.  Grise  Kevin M.  Pace  Michael L. 《Climatic change》2019,152(3-4):517-532

Climatic Change - This study examines the climatic drivers of ice-off dates for lakes and rivers across the Northern Hemisphere. Most lakes and rivers have trended toward earlier ice-off dates over...  相似文献   

Dynamics of the Tropical Middle Atmosphere: A Tutorial Review*     

Kevin Hamilton 《大气与海洋》2013,51(4):319-354

Abstract

The general circulation of the tropical stratosphere, mesosphere and lowermost thermosphere is discussed at a tutorial level. Observations of the quasi‐biennial and semiannual oscillations by both in situ and satellite techniques are first reviewed. The basic dynamics controlling the zonal‐mean component of the circulation are then discussed. The role of radiative diabatic cooling in constraining the zonal‐mean circulation in the middle atmosphere is emphasized. It is shown that the effectiveness of this radiative constraint is reduced at low latitudes, allowing for the sustained mean flow accelerations over long periods of time characteristic of the quasi‐biennial and semiannual oscillations in the tropics.

The current view is that the dominant driving for the equatorial mean flow accelerations seen in the middle atmosphere derives from vertically‐propagating waves. This process is illustrated here in its simplest context, i.e. the Plumb (1977) model of the interaction of monochromatic internal gravity waves with the mean flow (based on earlier work of Lindzen and Holton, 1968; Holton and Lindzen, 1972). It is shown that the dynamics illustrated by this simple model can serve as the basis for an explanation of the quasi‐biennial oscillation.

The paper then describes some of recent developments in the theory of the quasi‐biennial and semiannual oscillations, including aspects related to the interaction between tropics and midlatitudes in the middle atmosphere. The paper concludes with a discussion of the effects of the long period dynamical variations in the tropical circulation on the chemical composition of the stratosphere.  相似文献   

Estimating impacts of warming temperatures on California's electricity system     

Jayant A. Sathaye  Larry L. Dale  Peter H. Larsen  Gary A. Fitts  Kevin Koy  Sarah M. Lewis  André Frossard Pereira de Lucena 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(2):499-511

Despite a clear need, little research has been carried out at the regional-level to quantify potential climate-related impacts to electricity production and delivery systems. This paper introduces a bottom-up study of climate change impacts on California's energy infrastructure, including high temperature effects on power plant capacity, transmission lines, substation capacity, and peak electricity demand. End-of-century impacts were projected using the A2 and B1 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios. The study quantifies the effect of high ambient temperatures on electricity generation, the capacity of substations and transmission lines, and the demand for peak power for a set of climate scenarios. Based on these scenarios, atmospheric warming and associated peak demand increases would necessitate up to 38% of additional peak generation capacity and up to 31% additional transmission capacity, assuming current infrastructure. These findings, although based on a limited number of scenarios, suggest that additional funding could be put to good use by supporting R&D into next generation cooling equipment technologies, diversifying the power generation mix without compromising the system's operational flexibility, and designing effective demand side management programs.  相似文献   

Structure and subduction processes along the Oregon-Washington margin     

Guy R. Cochrane  Brian T. R. Lewis  Kevin J. McClain 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》1988,128(3-4):767-800

Seismic reflection and refraction data off Washington and Oregon are used to determine the style of sediment deformation and to infer the physical properties of accreted sediments on the lower slope. Onshore-offshore seismic refraction data off Washington are used to determine the location of the trench, or where the plate bending starts.We find that off Washington the subduction zone is characterized by a trench whose physiographic expression is buried under several kilometers of sediments and is tens of kilometers landward of the lower slope, which is accreting seaward as the result of the offscraping of sediments.Seismic reflection data support previous observations that offscraping occurs along seaward and landward dipping thrust faults. Refraction data indicate that a sediment package thrust up along a seaward dipping fault (off Washington) was not measurably changed in velocity with respect to a Cascadia basin section. However a package uplifted by thrusting along a landward dipping fault (off Oregon) did have increased velocity. It is suggested that the increased velocities off Oregon could be the result of erosion and exposure of more deeply buried and compacted sediments, rather than the result of dewatering due to tectonic stress. Off Washington the sensitivity of velocity to porosity and resolution of the seismic method does not preclude dewatering due to tectonic stress, but it does limit the degree of dewatering.In the deeper parts of the lower slope section off Washington and Oregon velocities as high as 3 to 4 km/sec are found. Heat flow data indicate that the temperatures in this high velocity regime are greater than 100°C. It is hypothesized that lithification related to clay diagenesis may be partly responsible for the high velocities, rather than simply compaction. It also appears that the high velocity sediments are subducted while the unlithified low velocity sediments are offscraped.  相似文献   

The unique,widely distributed,estuarine sea anemone,Nematostella vectensis Stephenson: A review,new facts,and questions     

Cadet Hand  Kevin R. Uhlinger 《Estuaries and Coasts》1994,17(2):501-508

The small, burrowing, edwardsiid sea anemone Nematostella vectensis is widely distributed in estuaries and bays. Most typically it occurs in pools in marshes though it may occur subtidally as well. We have compiled records of its occurrence in North America from Nova Scotia to Georgia along the shores of the Atlantic Ocean, from Florida to Louisiana in the Gulf of Mexico and from California to Washington on the Pacific coast. To date we have found no records of its presence in Alabama or Texas, though it is present in all other of the contiguous coastal states of the United States. The species also occurs in England. We have obtained living specimens from many locations and have crossed females from England, Maryland, Georgia, California, Oregon, and Washington with males from Nova Scotia, Maryland, Georgia, and Oregon. These 24 crosses all yielded viable first-generation anemones that in turn produced second-generation animals. We accept this as proof that this widely distributed anemone is a single species. We have obtained living N. vectensis from 11 areas. Of these, only samples from Maine, Maryland, Georgia, and Oregon contained both sexes. The sample from Nova Scotia was all male and our samples from England, New Hampshire, California, and Washington were all female. We hypothesize that the unisexual samples were from clones resulting from asexual reproduction in this species. *** DIRECT SUPPORT *** A01BY066 00015  相似文献