Modeling the Population Effects of Hypoxia on Atlantic Croaker (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Micropogonias undulatus</Emphasis>) in the Northwestern Gulf of Mexico: Part 1—Model Description and Idealized Hypoxia     

Kenneth A. Rose  Sean Creekmore  Peter Thomas  J. Kevin Craig  Md Saydur Rahman  Rachael Miller Neilan 《Estuaries and Coasts》2018,41(1):233-254

We developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model to analyze how hypoxia effects on reproduction, growth, and mortality of Atlantic croaker in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico lead to population-level responses. The model follows the hourly growth, mortality, reproduction, and movement of individuals on a 300 × 800 spatial grid of 1-km² cells for 140 years. Chlorophyll-a concentration, water temperature, and dissolved oxygen (DO) were specified daily for each grid cell and repeated for each year of the simulation. A bioenergetics model was used to represent growth, mortality was assumed stage- and age-dependent, and the movement behavior of juveniles and adults was modeled based on temperature and avoidance of low DO. Hypoxia effects were imposed using exposure effect submodels that converted time-varying exposures to low DO to reduced hourly growth, increased hourly mortality, and reduced annual fecundity. Results showed that 100 years of either mild or intermediate hypoxia produced small reductions in population abundance, while repeated severe hypoxia caused a 19% reduction in long-term population abundance. Relatively few individuals were exposed to low DO each hour, but many individuals experienced some exposure. The response was dominated by a 5% average reduction in annual fecundity of individuals. Under conditions of random sequences of mild, intermediate, and severe hypoxia years occurring in proportion to their historical frequency, the model predicted a 10% decrease in the long-term population abundance of croaker. A companion paper substitutes hourly DO values from a three-dimensional water quality model for the idealized hypoxia and results in a more realistic population reduction of about 25%.  相似文献   

When hazard avoidance is not an option: lessons learned from monitoring the postdisaster Oso landslide,USA     

Reid  Mark E.  Godt  Jonathan W.  LaHusen  Richard G.  Slaughter  Stephen L.  Badger  Thomas C.  Collins  Brian D.  Schulz  William H.  Baum  Rex L.  Coe  Jeffrey A.  Harp  Edwin L.  Schmidt  Kevin M.  Iverson  Richard M.  Smith  Joel B.  Haugerud  Ralph A.  George  David L. 《Landslides》2021,18(9):2993-3009

On 22 March 2014, a massive, catastrophic landslide occurred near Oso, Washington, USA, sweeping more than 1 km across the adjacent valley flats and killing 43 people. For the following 5 weeks, hundreds of workers engaged in an exhaustive search, rescue, and recovery effort directly in the landslide runout path. These workers could not avoid the risks posed by additional large-scale slope collapses. In an effort to ensure worker safety, multiple agencies cooperated to swiftly deploy a monitoring and alerting system consisting of sensors, automated data processing and web-based display, along with defined communication protocols and clear calls to action for emergency management and search personnel. Guided by the principle that an accelerating landslide poses a greater threat than a steadily moving or stationary mass, the system was designed to detect ground motion and vibration using complementary monitoring techniques. Near real-time information was provided by continuous GPS, seismometers/geophones, and extensometers. This information was augmented by repeat-assessment techniques such as terrestrial and aerial laser scanning and time-lapse photography. Fortunately, no major additional landsliding occurred. However, we did detect small headscarp failures as well as slow movement of the remaining landslide mass with the monitoring system. This was an exceptional response situation and the lessons learned are applicable to other landslide disaster crises. They underscore the need for cogent landslide expertise and ready-to-deploy monitoring equipment, the value of using redundant monitoring techniques with distinct goals, the benefit of clearly defined communication protocols, and the importance of continued research into forecasting landslide behavior to allow timely warning.

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Reducing wind power curtailment in China: comparing the roles of coal power flexibility and improved dispatch     

Hong Lu  Qionghui Li  Ryan Wiser  Kevin Porter 《Climate Policy》2019,19(5):623-635

Renewable energy curtailment is a critical issue in China, impeding the country’s transition to clean energy and its ability to meet its climate goals. This paper analyzes the impacts of more flexible coal-fired power generation and improved power dispatch towards reducing wind power curtailment. A unit commitment model for power dispatch is used to conduct the analysis, with different scenarios demonstrating the relative impacts of more flexible coal-fired generation and improved power dispatch. Overall, while we find both options are effective in reducing wind power curtailment, we find that improved power dispatch is more effective: (1) the effect of ramping down coal-fired generators to reduce wind power curtailment lessens as the minimum output of coal-fired generation is decreased; and (2) as a result, at higher wind capacity levels, wind curtailment is much more significantly reduced with improved power dispatch than with decreased minimum output of coal-fired generation.

Key policy insights

• China should emphasize both coal power flexibility and dispatch in its policies to minimize renewable power curtailment and promote clean energy transition.

• China should accelerate the process of implementing spot market and marginal cost-based economic dispatch, while making incremental improvements to the existing equal share dispatch in places not ready for spot market.

• A key step in improving of dispatch is incorporating renewable power forecasts into the unit commitment process and updating the daily unit commitment based on the latest forecast result.

• China should expand the coal power flexibility retrofit programme and promote the further development of the ancillary service market to encourage more flexibility from coal-fired generation.

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High-frequency climate oscillations drive ice-off variability for Northern Hemisphere lakes and rivers     

Schmidt  Daniel F.  Grise  Kevin M.  Pace  Michael L. 《Climatic change》2019,152(3-4):517-532

Climatic Change - This study examines the climatic drivers of ice-off dates for lakes and rivers across the Northern Hemisphere. Most lakes and rivers have trended toward earlier ice-off dates over...  相似文献   

Shock metamorphic history of >4 Ga Apollo 14 and 15 zircons     

Carolyn A. Crow  Desmond E. Moser  Kevin D. McKeegan 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2019,54(1):181-201

During impact events, zircons develop a wide range of shock metamorphic features that depend on the pressure and temperature conditions experienced by the zircon. These conditions vary with original distance from impact center and whether the zircon grains are incorporated into ejecta or remain within the target crust. We have employed the range of shock metamorphic features preserved in >4 Ga lunar zircons separated from Apollo 14 and 15 breccias and soils in order to gain insights into the impact shock histories of these areas of the Moon. We report microstructural characteristics of 31 zircons analyzed using electron beam methods including electron backscatter pattern (EBSP) and diffraction (EBSD). The major results of this survey are as follows. (1) The abundance of curviplanar features hosting secondary impact melt inclusions suggests that most of the zircons have experienced shock pressures between 3 and 20 GPa; (2) the scarcity of recrystallization or decomposition textures and the absence of the high‐pressure polymorph, reidite, suggests that few grains have been shocked to over 40 GPa or heated above 1000 °C in ejecta settings; (3) one grain exhibits narrow, arc‐shaped bands of twinned zircon, which map out as spherical shells, and represent a novel shock microstructure. Overall, most of the Apollo 14 and 15 zircons exhibit shock features similar to those of terrestrial zircon grains originating from continental crust below large (~200 km) impact craters (e.g., Vredefort impact basin), suggesting derivation from central uplifts or uplifted rims of large basins or craters on the Moon and not high‐temperature and ‐pressure ejecta deposits.  相似文献   

The galaxy luminosity function in the LAMOST Complete Spectroscopic Survey of Pointing Area at the Southern Galactic Cap     

Pin-Song Zhao  Hong Wu  Cong Kevin Xu  Ming Yang  Fan Yang  Yi-Nan Zhu  Man I Lam  Jun-Jie Jin  Hai-Long Yuan  Hao-Tong Zhang  Shi-Yin Shen  Jian-Rong Shi  A-Li Luo  Xue-Bing Wu  Yong-Heng Zhao  Yi-Peng Jing 《天文和天体物理学研究(英文版)》2019,(8)

We present optical luminosity functions(LFs) of galaxies in the~(0.1) g,~(0.1) r,~(0.1) i bands, calculated using data in~40 deg~2 sky area of the LAMOST Complete Spectroscopic Survey of Pointing Area(LaCoSSPAr) in the Southern Galactic Cap. Redshifts for galaxies brighter than r = 18.1 were obtained mainly with LAMOST. In each band, LFs derived using both parametric and non-parametric maximum likelihood methods agree well with each other. In the0.1 r band, our fitting parameters of the Schechter function are φ_*=(1.65 ± 0.36) × 10~(-2) h~3 Mpc~(-3), M_*=-20.69 ± 0.06 mag and α =-1.12 ± 0.08,which agree with previous studies. Separate LFs are also derived for emission line galaxies and absorption line galaxies. The LFs of absorption line galaxies show a dip at~(0.1) r ~18.5 and can be fitted well by a double-Gaussian function, suggesting a bimodality in passive galaxies.  相似文献   

A cross-ecosystem comparison of spatial and temporal patterns of covariation in the recruitment of functionally analogous fish stocks   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：1  

Bernard A. Megrey  Jonathan A. Hare  William T. Stockhausen  Are Dommasnes  Harald Gjster  William Overholtz  Sarah Gaichas  Georg Skaret  Jannike Falk-Petersen  Jason S. Link  Kevin D. Friedland 《Progress in Oceanography》2009,81(1-4):63

Temporal and spatial patterns of recruitment (R) and spawning stock biomass (S) variability were compared among functionally analogous species and similar feeding guilds from six marine ecosystems. Data were aggregated into four regions including the Gulf of Maine/Georges Bank, the Norwegian/Barents Seas, the eastern Bering Sea, and the Gulf of Alaska. Variability was characterized by calculating coefficients of variation and anomalies for three response variables: ln(R), ln(R/S), and stock–recruit model residuals. Patterns of synchrony and asynchrony in the response variables were examined among and between ecosystems, between- and within-ocean basins and among functionally analogous species groups using pair-wise correlation analysis corrected for within-time series autocorrelation, multivariate cross-correlation analyses and regime shift detectors. Time series trends in response variables showed consistent within basin similarities and consistent and coherent differences between the Atlantic and Pacific basin ecosystems. Regime shift detection algorithms identified two broad-scale regime shift time periods for the pelagic feeding guild (1972–1976 and 1999–2002) and possibly one for the benthic feeding guild (1999–2002). No spatial patterns in response variable coefficients of variation were observed. Results from multivariate cross-correlation analysis showed similar trends. The data suggest common external factors act in synchrony on stocks within ocean basins but temporal stock patterns, often of the same species or functional group, between basins change in opposition to each other. Basin-scale results (similar within but different between) suggest that the two geographically broad areas are connected by unknown mechanisms that, depending on the year, may influence the two basins in opposite ways. This work demonstrates that commonalities and synchronies in recruitment fluctuations can be found across geographically distant ecosystems but biophysical causes of the fluctuations remain difficult to identify.  相似文献   

利用基于环境因子的动态产量模型评估西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼     

汪金涛  陈新军  Kevin W. Staples  陈勇 《海洋学报(英文版)》2018,37(2):94-101

西南大西洋阿根廷滑柔鱼,Illex argentinus,巴塔哥尼亚南部群体是重要的经济种类。海洋环境因子在柔鱼资源分布中起着重要的作用。本研究利用基于环境因子的动态产量模型评估2000-2010年的滑柔鱼的资源量。假设海洋环境因子（滑柔鱼产卵场最适宜海表温度占比）影响动态产量模型的参数K,DIC值表明在正态分布和均匀分布下均是基于环境因子的评估模型优于基本的动态产量模型。阿根廷滑柔鱼的最大可持续产量（MSY）在351600吨到685 100吨之间,资源生物量在1322400吨到1 803 000吨之间,其捕捞死亡系数均小于F_0.1和F_MSY,资源处在良好状态,没有遭受过度捕捞。本研究为应用环境因子在柔鱼类的资源评估与管理提中供了科学的参考方法。  相似文献   

Factors influencing biodeposit production by the New Zealand freshwater mussel Echyridella menziesii     

Kevin J. Collier  Susan J. Clearwater  Paula H. M. W. Neijenhuis  Susanna A. Wood 《新西兰海洋与淡水研究杂志》2018,52(1):1-15

Laboratory experiments on the New Zealand freshwater mussel Echyridella menziesii were used to investigate the short-term effects (7–8 days) of food type on rates of biodeposition and benthic substrate respiration. Post-feeding biodeposition rates ranged from 0.34 to 1.52?mg?g^?1?h^?1 (mean?=?0.50?mg g^?1?h^?1) and were unaffected by the addition of toxin-producing Microcystis. Addition of suspended sediment (30?mg?L^?1) visibly altered substrate composition, and increased total and inorganic biodeposit production rates by 24–33% compared to mussels fed commercial phytoplankton stock. Biodeposition rates of mussels in lake bed substrates were 38% higher than those in silica sand for identical feeding regimes, suggesting that a significant proportion of material produced in this experiment could have been derived from feeding on organic matter in the lake bed sediments. Respiration rates were higher in treatments with Microcystis but were unaffected by the presence of mussels. This laboratory study suggests that biodeposition by E. menziesii is resilient to short-term exposure to Microcystis, and highlights the ability of mussels to alter benthic substrate composition by incorporating suspended sediment into substrates.  相似文献   

A stock assessment for Illex argentinus in Southwest Atlantic using an environmentally dependent surplus production model     

WANG Jintao  CHEN Xinjun  Kevin W.Staples  CHEN Yong 《海洋学报(英文版)》2018,(2)

The southern Patagonian stock(SPS) of Argentinian shortfin squid, Illex argentinus, is an economically important squid fishery in the Southwest Atlantic. Environmental conditions in the region play an important role in regulating the population dynamics of the I. argentinus population. This study develops an environmentally dependent surplus production(EDSP) model to evaluate the stock abundance of I. argentines during the period of 2000 to 2010. The environmental factors(favorable spawning habitat areas with sea surface temperature of 16–18°C) were assumed to be closely associated with carrying capacity(K) in the EDSP model. Deviance Information Criterion(DIC) values suggest that the estimated EDSP model with environmental factors fits the data better than a Schaefer surplus model without environmental factors under uniform and normal scenarios.The EDSP model estimated a maximum sustainable yield(MSY) from 351 600 t to 685 100 t and a biomass from 1 322 400 t to1 803 000 t. The fishing mortality coefficient of I. argentinus from 2000 to 2010 was smaller than the values of F_(0.1) and F_(MSY). Furthermore, the time series biomass plot of I. argentinus from 2000 to 2010 shows that the biomass of I.argentinus and this fishery were in a good state and not presently experiencing overfishing. This study suggests that the environmental conditions of the habitat should be considered within squid stock assessment and management.  相似文献