Improvements in storm surge surrogate modeling for synthetic storm parameterization,node condition classification and implementation to small size databases     

Kyprioti  Aikaterini P.  Taflanidis  Alexandros A.  Plumlee  Matthew  Asher  Taylor G.  Spiller  Elaine  Luettich  Richard A.  Blanton  Brian  Kijewski-Correa  Tracy L.  Kennedy  Andrew  Schmied  Lauren 《Natural Hazards》2021,109(2):1349-1386

Surrogate models are becoming increasingly popular for storm surge predictions. Using existing databases of storm simulations, developed typically during regional flood studies, these models provide fast-to-compute, data-driven approximations quantifying the expected storm surge for any new storm (not included in the training database). This paper considers the development of such a surrogate model for Delaware Bay, using a database of 156 simulations driven by synthetic tropical cyclones and offering predictions for a grid that includes close to 300,000 computational nodes within the geographical domain of interest. Kriging (Gaussian Process regression) is adopted as the surrogate modeling technique, and various relevant advancements are established. The appropriate parameterization of the synthetic storm database is examined. For this, instead of the storm features at landfall, the features when the storm is at closest distance to some representative point of the domain of interest are investigated as an alternative parametrization, and are found to produce a better surrogate. For nodes that remained dry for some of the database storms, imputation of the surge using a weighted k nearest neighbor (kNN) interpolation is considered to fill in the missing data. The use of a secondary, classification surrogate model, combining logistic principal component analysis and Kriging, is examined to address instances for which the imputed surge leads to misclassification of the node condition. Finally, concerns related to overfitting for the surrogate model are discussed, stemming from the small size of the available database. These concerns extend to both the calibration of the surrogate model hyper-parameters, as well as to the validation approaches adopted. During this process, the benefits from the use of principal component analysis as a dimensionality reduction technique, and the appropriate transformation and scaling of the surge output are examined in detail.

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Geology and tectonic implications of tourmaline bearing leucogranite of Bastipadu,Kurnool, Andhra Pradesh,India     

Kiran Jyoti Mishra  Santanu Bhattacharjee  M S Reddy  M N Praveen  A D Bhimte  N Mahanta 《Journal of Earth System Science》2018,127(6):87

Tourmaline bearing leucogranite occurs as a pluton with pegmatitic veins intruding the Archaean granodiorite in the Bastipadu area, Kurnool district of Andhra Pradesh. We present field and petrographic relations, mineral chemistry and geochemical data for the leucogranite. It is essentially a two-mica granite, composed of quartz, perthite, microcline, albite, tourmaline and muscovite along with minor biotite and titanite. The euhedral tourmalines are regularly distributed in the rock. The geochemical studies show that the leucogranite is calc-alkaline, peraluminous to metaluminous which formed in a syn-collisional to volcanic arc-related setting. It displays strong ‘S’ type signatures with high K/Na ratios, moderately fractionated light rare earth elements, relatively flat heavy rare earth elements with \(\hbox {[Ce/Yb]}_\mathrm{N} \le 27.8\) and a strong negative Eu anomaly. The geochemical characteristics indicate that the leucogranite melt might have been generated from partial melting of metasediments. Electron probe microanalyser data show the presence of alkali group tourmaline in leucogranite represented by schorl and dravite. Tourmaline compositions plot in the Li-poor granitoids and associated pegmatites and aplites and metapelites/metasammites fields. Partial melting of boron-enriched source rocks is linked with the development of tourmalines in the leucogranite.  相似文献   

Markov chain model to study the occurrence of pre-monsoon thunderstorms over Bhubaneswar,India   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Surajit Chattopadhyay  Nachiketa Acharya  Goutami Chattopadhyay  Siripurapu Kiran Prasad  Uma Charan Mohanty 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2012,344(10):473-482

The present work deals with pre-monsoon thunderstorms over Bhubaneswar belonging to the state of Orissa, India. A Markovian approach has been adopted to discern the probabilistic behavior of the time series of the occurrence and non-occurrence of this hazardous weather event by introducing a dichotomy within the time series. After a painstaking analysis through chi-square tests, we have identified serial independence in a few years and first-order two-state Markovian dependence in a few years (2000, 2001, 2004 and 2006). Finally, for the years of first-order two-state Markovian dependence, it has been observed that the probability of occurrence or non-occurrence of thunderstorm gets higher if the state of the previous day is similar to that of the current day. Furthermore, the probability of getting non-thunderstorm day followed by non-thunderstorm day is higher than the probability of getting thunderstorm day followed by thunderstorm day. It has been also observed that the unconditional climatological probability of the occurrence of severe pre-monsoon thunderstorm implied by the Markov chain is closely in agreement with the observed relative frequencies. However, it could be revealed that Markov chain cannot, in general, be suggested as a predictive tool for pre-monsoon thunderstorms under study without investigating the serial dependence inherent in the time series.  相似文献   

Impact of atmospheric and physical forcings on biogeochemical cycling of dissolved oxygen and nutrients in the coastal Bay of Bengal   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

V. V. S. S. Sarma  B. Sridevi  K. Maneesha  T. Sridevi  S. A. Naidu  V. R. Prasad  V. Venkataramana  T. Acharya  M. D. Bharati  Ch. V. Subbaiah  B. S. Kiran  N. P. C. Reddy  V. V. Sarma  Y. Sadhuram  T. V. R. Murty 《Journal of Oceanography》2013,69(2):229-243

Time-series observations were conducted off Visakhapatnam, central west coast of Bay of Bengal, from October 2007 to April 2009 to examine the influence of physical and atmospheric processes on water column nutrients biogeochemistry. The thermal structure displayed inversions of 0.5 to 1.0° C during winter and were weaker in summer. The water column was vertically stratified during the entire study period and was stronger during October–November 2007 and August–December 2008 compared to other study periods. High concentrations of chlorophyll-a and nutrients were associated with the extreme atmospheric events. The strong relationship of nutrients with salinity indicates that physical processes, such as circulation, mixing and river discharge, have a significant control on phytoplankton blooms in the coastal Bay of Bengal. Phosphate seems to be a controlling nutrient during winter whereas availability of light and suspended matter limits production in summer. Formation of low oxygen conditions were observed in the bottom waters due to enhanced primary production by extreme atmospheric events; however, re-oxygenation of bottom waters through sinking of oxygen-rich surface waters by a warm core (anticyclonic) eddy led to its near recovery. This study reveals that atmospheric and physical processes have significant impacts on the water column biogeochemistry in the coastal Bay of Bengal.  相似文献   

A high magnitude storm and flood in a hyperarid catchment,Nahal Zin,Negev Desert,Israel     

Noam Greenbaum  Adina Margalit  Asher P. Schick  David Sharon  Victor R. Baker 《水文研究》1998,12(1):1-23

In October 1991 a high magnitude rainstorm flood, estimated return period 40 years, occurred in Nahal Zin, a 1400 km² catchment in the hyperarid Negev Desert. The meso-scale structure of the storm was a curved squall line that developed from a thunderstorm in accordance with the topography of the catchment divide, by which it was strongly affected. Tropical moisture reached the area via the subtropical jet stream, in conjunction with a lower level northward intrusion of the Red Sea trough (RST-N) into the Mediterranean Sea. Rainfall, as measured at the few and sparse gauging stations, was much too small to account for the resulting large flood. Peak flow and other hydraulic characteristics of the flood were indirectly reconstructed. The techniques of palaeoflood hydrology used were based on sedimentological evidence of fine-grained flood sediments deposited in back-flooded tributaries, as well as on other stage indicators. The HEC-2 procedure was employed to determine water surface profiles. The spatial and temporal characteristics of the event were studied through a combination of rainstorm analysis, remote sensing, hydrological and sedimentological data; they jointly explain the magnitude and timing of tributary contributions producing the integrated flood in the main channel. The flood as reconstructed reveals a three-peak hydrograph: two peaks were generated by the same storm but had different floodwave arrival times in the main channel; the third resulted from a local rainstorm which occurred on the following day and covered only one tributary. The curved structure of the storm and its dynamics in relation to catchment orientation resulted in storm move- ment in tandem with the floodwave. The synchronous contribution from all main tributaries preserved evidence of the floodwave both in stage and volume by replacing the transmission losses in the sections with thick alluvium. Other high magnitude floods on record for the large Negev Desert catchments are caused by a cold upper air incursion associated with the RST-N. Most of them occur in the autumn and are caused by storms with high-intensity rainfall. This is in stark contrast with the flooding behaviour of the semi-arid zone further north, which is linked primarily to the core of the Mediterranean winter. The complexities involved in the generation of a large desert flood, as revealed by this study, illustrate the fallacy of applying routine hydrological modelling to such events, and underline the need to study the processes involved in adequate detail. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献