Regional climate modelling over complex terrain: an evaluation study of COSMO-CLM hindcast model runs for the Greater Alpine Region   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Klaus Haslinger  Ivonne Anders  Michael Hofstätter 《Climate Dynamics》2013,40(1-2):511-529

In this study the results of the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM) covering the Greater Alpine Region (GAR, 4°–19°W and 43°–49°N) were evaluated against observational data. The simulation was carried out as a hindcast run driven by ERA-40 reanalysis data for the period 1961–2000. The spatial resolution of the model data presented is approx. 10 km per grid point. For the evaluation purposes a variety of observational datasets were used: CRU TS 2.1, E-OBS, GPCC4 and HISTALP. Simple statistics such as mean biases, correlations, trends and annual cycles of temperature and precipitation for different sub-regions were applied to verify the model performance. Furthermore, the altitude dependence of these statistical measures has been taken into account. Compared to the CRU and E-OBS datasets CCLM shows an annual mean cold bias of ?0.6 and ?0.7 °C, respectively. Seasonal precipitation sums are generally overestimated by +8 to +23 % depending on the observational dataset with large variations in space and season. Bias and correlation show a dependency on altitude especially in the winter and summer seasons. Temperature trends in CCLM contradict the signals from observations, showing negative trends in summer and autumn which are in contrast to CRU and E-OBS.  相似文献   

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Doug M. Smith  Adam A. Scaife  George J. Boer  Mihaela Caian  Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes  Virginie Guemas  Ed Hawkins  Wilco Hazeleger  Leon Hermanson  Chun Kit Ho  Masayoshi Ishii  Viatcheslav Kharin  Masahide Kimoto  Ben Kirtman  Judith Lean  Daniela Matei  William J. Merryfield  Wolfgang A. Müller  Holger Pohlmann  Anthony Rosati  Bert Wouters  Klaus Wyser 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(11-12):2875-2888

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.  相似文献   

Tele-connecting local consumption to global land use   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Yang Yu  Kuishuang Feng  Klaus Hubacek 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(5):1178-1186

Globalization increases the interconnectedness of people and places around the world. In a connected world, goods and services consumed in one country are often produced in other countries and exchanged via international trade. Thus, local consumption is increasingly met by global supply chains oftentimes involving large geographical distances and leading to global environmental change. In this study, we connect local consumption to global land use through tracking global commodity and value chains via international trade flows. Using a global multiregional input–output model with sectoral detail allows for the accounting of land use attributed to “unusual” sectors – from a land use perspective – including services, machinery and equipment, and construction. Our results show how developed countries consume a large amount of goods and services from both domestic and international markets, and thus impose pressure not only on their domestic land resources, but also displace land in other countries, thus displacing other uses. For example, 33% of total U.S. land use for consumption purposes is displaced from other countries. This ratio becomes much larger for the EU (more than 50%) and Japan (92%). Our analysis shows that 47% of Brazilian and 88% of Argentinean cropland is used for consumption purposes outside of their territories, mainly in EU countries and China. In addition, consumers in rich countries tend to displace land by consuming non-agricultural products, such as services, clothing and household appliances, which account for more than 50% of their total land displacement. By contrast, for developing economies, such as African countries, the share of land use for non-agricultural products is much lower, with an average of 7%. The emerging economies and population giants, China and India, are likely to further increase their appetite for land from other countries, such as Africa, Russia and Latin America, to satisfy their own land needs driven by their fast economic growth and the needs and lifestyles of their growing populations.  相似文献   

Doppler Images of ζ Andromedae     

Zsolt Kővári  Katalin Oláh  János Bartus  Klaus G. Strassmeier  Michael Weber  Albert Washuettl  John B. Rice  Szilárd Csizmadia 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2006,304(1-4):375-377

Doppler images are presented for the RS CVn-type binary ζ And. Our upgraded Doppler imaging code TempMap_ε takes into account the distorted geometry of the primary giant component. On the maps several low latitude spots are restored with a temperature contrast of about 1000 K. Some weak polar features are also found. Cross-correlation of the consecutive Doppler-maps suggests solar-like differential surface rotation.  相似文献   

The Fayette County,Texas, meteorites     

Timothy J. McCoy  Arthur J. Ehlmann  Klaus Keil 《Meteoritics & planetary science》1995,30(6):776-780

Abstract— We report the first petrologic examination of all stone meteorites of Fayette County, Texas. The 10 stones represent four or five different fall events. The three recovered Bluff stones represent two falls. Bluff (a), which includes the 145.5-kg Bluff #1 stone, is classified as L5(S4), whereas Bluff (b) is classified as L4(S3) and is represented by a single stone. The studied Cedar stones are classified as H4(S3), and all four Cedar stones appear to define a strewnfield. Round Top (a), classified as L5(S3) and represented by two stones, is unrelated to either Bluff or Cedar. Round Top (b) [H4(S3); 1 stone], whose exact provenance is unknown, might be a transported fragment of the Cedar shower.  相似文献   

Sulfurous acid (H₂SO₃) on Io?     

Andreas F. Voegele  Christofer S. Tautermann  Andreas Hallbrucker  Erwin Mayer  Klaus R. Liedl 《Icarus》2004,169(1):242-249

Sulfurous acid (H₂SO₃) has never been characterized or isolated on Earth. This is caused by the unfavorable conditions for H₂SO₃ within Earth's atmosphere due to the high temperatures, the high water content and the oxidizing environment. Kinetic investigations by means of transition state theory showed that the half-life of H₂SO₃ at 300 K is 1 day but at 100 K it is increased to 2.7 billion years. Natural conditions to form H₂SO₃ presumably require cryogenic SO₂ or SO₂/H₂O mixtures and high energy proton irradiation at temperatures around 100 K. Such conditions can be found on the Jupiter moons Io and Europa. Therefore, we calculated IR-spectra of H₂SO₃ which we compared with Galileo's spectra of Io and Europa. From the available data we surmise that H₂SO₃ is present on Io and probably but to a smaller extent on Europa.  相似文献   

The CR chondrite clan: Implications for early solar system processes     

Alexander N. KROT  Anders MEIBOM  Michael K. WEISBERG  Klaus KEIL 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2002,37(11):1451-1490

Abstract— In this paper, we review the mineralogy and chemistry of calcium‐aluminum‐rich inclusions (CAIs), chondrules, FeNi‐metal, and fine‐grained materials of the CR chondrite clan, including CR, CH, and the metal‐rich CB chondrites Queen Alexandra Range 94411, Hammadah al Hamra 237, Bencubbin, Gujba, and Weatherford. The members of the CR chondrite clan are among the most pristine early solar system materials, which largely escaped thermal processing in an asteroidal setting (Bencubbin, Weatherford, and Gujba may be exceptions) and provide important constraints on the solar nebula models. These constraints include (1) multiplicity of CAI formation; (2) formation of CAIs and chondrules in spatially separated nebular regions; (3) formation of CAIs in gaseous reservoir(s) having ¹⁶O‐rich isotopic compositions; chondrules appear to have formed in the presence of ¹⁶O‐poor nebular gas; (4) isolation of CAIs and chondrules from nebular gas at various ambient temperatures; (5) heterogeneous distribution of ²⁶Al in the solar nebula; and (6) absence of matrix material in the regions of CAI and chondrule formation.  相似文献   

Heavily‐hydrated lithic clasts in CH chondrites and the related,metal‐rich chondrites Queen Alexandra Range 94411 and Hammadah al Hamra 237     

Ansgar GRESHAKE  Alexander N. KROT  Anders MEIBOM  Michael K. WEISBERG  Michael E. ZOLENSKY  Klaus KEIL 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2002,37(2):281-293

Abstract— Fine‐grained, heavily‐hydrated lithic clasts in the metal‐rich (CB) chondrites Queen Alexandra Range (QUE) 94411 and Hammadah al Hamra 237 and CH chondrites, such as Patuxent Range (PAT) 91546 and Allan Hills (ALH) 85085, are mineralogically similar suggesting genetic relationship between these meteorites. These clasts contain no anhydrous silicates and consist of framboidal and platelet magnetite, prismatic sulfides (pentlandite and pyrrhotite), and Fe‐Mn‐Mg‐bearing Ca‐carbonates set in a phyllosilicate‐rich matrix. Two types of phyllosilicates were identified: serpentine, with basal spacing of ?0.73 nm, and saponite, with basal spacings of about 1.1–1.2 nm. Chondrules and FeNi‐metal grains in CB and CH chondrites are believed to have formed at high temperature (>1300 K) by condensation in a solar nebula region that experienced complete vaporization. The absence of aqueous alteration of chondrules and metal grains in CB and CH chondrites indicates that the clasts experienced hydration in an asteroidal setting prior to incorporation into the CH and CB parent bodies. The hydrated clasts were either incorporated during regolith gardening or accreted together with chondrules and FeNi‐metal grains after these high‐temperature components had been transported from their hot formation region to a much colder region of the solar nebula.  相似文献   

Altered basaltic glass: A terrestrial analog to the soil of Mars     

Carlton C. Allen  James L. Gooding  Michael Jercinovic  Klaus Keil 《Icarus》1981,45(2):347-369

Analyses of Martian surface soil by Viking and Earth-based telescopes have been interpreted as indicating a regolith dominated by the weathering products of mafic or ultramafic rocks. Basaltic glass has previously been proposed as a more likely precursor than crystalline rock, given the low efficiency of surface weathering under present Martian conditions. On Earth large volumes of basaltic glass formed by quenching of magma by water. A similar interaction, between magma and ground ice, may have been a common occurrence on Mars. On the basis of this scenario palagonite, the alteration product of basaltic sideromelane glass, was studied as a possible analog to Martian soil. Samples from Iceland, Alaska, Antarctica, Hawaii, and the desert of New Mexico and Mexico were examined by optical and scanning electron microscopy, electron microprobe analysis, X-ray diffraction, spectrophotometry, and magnetic and thermogravimetric analysis. We suggest that palagonite is a good analog to the surface soil of Mars in chemical composition, particle size, spectral signature, and magnetic properties. Our model for the formation of fine-grained Martian surface soil begins with eruptions of basaltic magma through ground ice, forming deposits of glassy tuff. Individual glass shards are then altered by low-temperature hydrothermal systems to palagonitic material. Dehydration and aeolian abrasion strip the alteration rinds from the glass, and wind storms distribute the silt-sized palagonitic fragments in a planet-wide deposit.  相似文献   

Enstatite meteorites and their parent bodies*     

Klaus Keil 《Meteoritics & planetary science》1989,24(4):195-208

Abstract— Enstatite meteorites are highly reduced rocks that consist of major, nearly FeO-free enstatite, variable amounts of metallic Fe, Ni and troilite, and a host of rare minerals formed under highly-reducing conditions. They are comprised of the EH and EL chondrites and the aubrites. Here I discuss some of their properties and the nature and number of their parent bodies. Conclusions: 1. EH and EL chondrites show bulk compositional differences in non-volatile major elements that were established by nebular, not planetary processes. Occurrence of abundant breccias among them but lack of clasts of EL in EH chondrites (and vice versa) suggests that EH and EL chondrites represent two separate parent bodies. 2. Aubrites were not derived from known enstatite chondrites on the same parent bodies. Aubrites represent samples from a third enstatite meteorite parent body. 3. The aubrite parent body may have experienced collisional break-up and gravitational reassembly of the debris into a rubble-pile object. 4. The aubrite source material (parent body) was probably enstatite chondrite-like in composition, but had a higher troilite/metallic Fe, Ni ratio, higher contents of titanium and diopside, and possibly less plagioclase than known enstatite chondrites. 5. Shallowater, the only non-brecciated aubrite, does not appear to have formed on the EH, EL, or aubrite parent bodies by either internal (igneous) or external (impact) melting processes. Instead, Shallowater may be a sample from yet a fourth enstatite meteorite parent body. 6. Shallowater experienced a complex three-stage cooling history, requiring an equally complex mode of origin: collisional break-up of a molten or partly molten body by impact with a solid body, followed by gravitational reassembly. 7. It is unknown why some enstatite meteorite parent bodies melted (the aubrite and Shallowater bodies), and others did not (the EH and EL bodies). If unipolar dynamo induction by a primordial T Tauri sun was the dominant heat source that heated asteroidal-sized bodies in the early Solar System, then the aubrite and Shallowater parent bodies may have melted because they were of intermediate sizes, whereas the EH and EL bodies did not melt because they were either much smaller or much larger.  相似文献