Bandlimited implicit Runge–Kutta integration for Astrodynamics     

Ben K. Bradley  Brandon A. Jones  Gregory Beylkin  Kristian Sandberg  Penina Axelrad 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》2014,119(2):143-168

We describe a new method for numerical integration, dubbed bandlimited collocation implicit Runge–Kutta (BLC-IRK), and compare its efficiency in propagating orbits to existing techniques commonly used in Astrodynamics. The BLC-IRK scheme uses generalized Gaussian quadratures for bandlimited functions. This new method allows us to use significantly fewer force function evaluations than explicit Runge–Kutta schemes. In particular, we use a low-fidelity force model for most of the iterations, thus minimizing the number of high-fidelity force model evaluations. We also investigate the dense output capability of the new scheme, quantifying its accuracy for Earth orbits. We demonstrate that this numerical integration technique is faster than explicit methods of Dormand and Prince 5(4) and 8(7), Runge–Kutta–Fehlberg 7(8), and approaches the efficiency of the 8th-order Gauss–Jackson multistep method. We anticipate a significant acceleration of the scheme in a multiprocessor environment.  相似文献   

ECMWF seasonal forecast system 3 and its prediction of sea surface temperature   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Timothy N. Stockdale  David L. T. Anderson  Magdalena A. Balmaseda  Francisco Doblas-Reyes  Laura Ferranti  Kristian Mogensen  Timothy N. Palmer  Franco Molteni  Frederic Vitart 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(3-4):455-471

The latest operational version of the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system is described. It shows noticeably improved skill for sea surface temperature (SST) prediction compared with previous versions, particularly with respect to El Nino related variability. Substantial skill is shown for lead times up to 1?year, although at this range the spread in the ensemble forecast implies a loss of predictability large enough to account for most of the forecast error variance, suggesting only moderate scope for improving long range El Nino forecasts. At shorter ranges, particularly 3?C6?months, skill is still substantially below the model-estimated predictability limit. SST forecast skill is higher for more recent periods than earlier ones. Analysis shows that although various factors can affect scores in particular periods, the improvement from 1994 onwards seems to be robust, and is most plausibly due to improvements in the observing system made at that time. The improvement in forecast skill is most evident for 3-month forecasts starting in February, where predictions of NINO3.4 SST from 1994 to present have been almost without fault. It is argued that in situations where the impact of model error is small, the value of improved observational data can be seen most clearly. Significant skill is also shown in the equatorial Indian Ocean, although predictive skill in parts of the tropical Atlantic are relatively poor. SST forecast errors can be especially high in the Southern Ocean.  相似文献   

Ensemble of sea ice initial conditions for interannual climate predictions     

Virginie Guemas  Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes  Kristian Mogensen  Sarah Keeley  Yongming Tang 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(9-10):2813-2829

Polar climate studies are severely hampered by the sparseness of the sea ice observations. We aim at filling this critical gap by producing two 5-member sea ice historical simulations strongly constrained by ocean and atmosphere observational data and covering the 1958–2006 and 1979–2012 periods. This is the first multi-member sea ice reconstruction covering more than 50 years. The obtained sea ice conditions are in reasonable agreement with the few available observations. These best estimates of sea ice conditions serve subsequently as initial sea ice conditions for a set of 28 3-year-long retrospective climate predictions. We compare it to a set in which the sea ice initial conditions are taken from a single-member sea ice historical simulation constrained by atmosphere observations only. We find an improved skill in predicting the Arctic sea ice area and Arctic near surface temperature but a slightly degraded skill in predicting the Antarctic sea ice area. We also obtain a larger spread between the members for the sea ice variables, thus more representative of the forecast error.  相似文献   

Effects of elevated CO₂ on the reproduction of two calanoid copepods     

Kristian McConville  Claudia Halsband  Elaine S. Fileman  Paul J. Somerfield  Helen S. Findlay  John I. Spicer 《Marine pollution bulletin》2013

Some planktonic groups suffer negative effects from ocean acidification (OA), although copepods might be less sensitive. We investigated the effect of predicted CO₂ levels (range 480–750 ppm), on egg production and hatching success of two copepod species, Centropages typicus and Temora longicornis. In these short-term incubations there was no significant effect of high CO₂ on these parameters. Additionally a very high CO₂ treatment, (CO₂ = 9830 ppm), representative of carbon capture and storage scenarios, resulted in a reduction of egg production rate and hatching success of C. typicus, but not T. longicornis. In conclusion, reproduction of C. typicus was more sensitive to acute elevated seawater CO₂ than that of T. longicornis, but neither species was affected by exposure to CO₂ levels predicted for the year 2100. The duration and seasonal timing of exposures to high pCO₂, however, might have a significant effect on the reproduction success of calanoid copepods.  相似文献   

The effect of in situ shading on a Posidonia oceanica meadow situated within a fish farm induced moderately nutrient enriched environment     

Puhr K  Pikelj K 《Marine pollution bulletin》2012,64(8):1537-1548

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Classification of acoustically stable areas using empirical orthogonal functions   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Karl Thomas Hjelmervik  Jan Kristian Jensen  Petter ?stenstad  Atle Ommundsen 《Ocean Dynamics》2012,62(2):253-264

Sonar performance modeling is crucial for submarine and anti–submarine operations. The validity of sonar performance models is generally limited by environmental uncertainty, and particularly uncertainty in the vertical sound speed profile (SSP). Rapid environmental assessment (REA) products, such as oceanographic surveys and ocean models may be used to reduce this uncertainty prior to sonar operations. Empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) applied on the SSPs inherently take into account the vertical gradients and therefore the acoustic properties. We present a method that employs EOFs and a grouping algorithm to divide a large group of SSPs from an ocean model simulation into smaller groups with similar SSP characteristics. Such groups are henceforth called acoustically stable groups. Each group represents a subset in space and time within the ocean model domain. Regions with low acoustic variability contain large and geographically contiguous acoustically stable groups. In contrast, small or fragmented acoustically stable groups are found in regions with high acoustic variability. The main output is a map of the group distribution. This is a REA product in itself, but the map may also be used as a planning aid for REA survey missions.  相似文献   

The origin of the galaxy mass–metallicity relation and implications for galactic outflows     

Kristian Finlator  Romeel Davé 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,385(4):2181-2204

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The feasibility of low CO₂ concentration targets and the role of bio-energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)     

Christian Azar  Kristian Lindgren  Michael Obersteiner  Keywan Riahi  Detlef P. van Vuuren  K. Michel G. J. den Elzen  Kenneth M?llersten  Eric D. Larson 《Climatic change》2010,100(1):195-202

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC 1992) calls for stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. We use three global energy system models to investigate the technological and economic attainability of meeting CO₂ concentration targets below current levels. Our scenario studies reveal that while energy portfolios from a broad range of energy technologies are needed to attain low concentrations, negative emission technologies—e.g., biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS)—significantly enhances the possibility to meet low concentration targets (at around 350 ppm CO₂).  相似文献   

Climate change impacts on water management and irrigated agriculture in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Julie A. Vano  Michael J. Scott  Nathalie Voisin  Claudio O. Stöckle  Alan F. Hamlet  Kristian E. B. Mickelson  Marketa McGuire Elsner  Dennis P. Lettenmaier 《Climatic change》2010,102(1-2):287-317

The Yakima River Reservoir system supplies water to ~180,000 irrigated hectares through the operation of five reservoirs with cumulative storage of ~30% mean annual river flow. Runoff is derived mostly from winter precipitation in the Cascade Mountains, much of which is stored as snowpack. Climate change is expected to result in earlier snowmelt runoff and reduced summer flows. Effects of these changes on irrigated agriculture were simulated using a reservoir system model coupled to a hydrological model driven by downscaled scenarios from 20 climate models archived by the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. We find earlier snowmelt results in increased water delivery curtailments. Historically, the basin experienced substantial water shortages in 14% of years. Without adaptations, for IPCC A1B global emission scenarios, water shortages increase to 27% (13% to 49% range) in the 2020s, to 33% in the 2040s, and 68% in the 2080s. For IPCC B1 emissions scenarios, shortages occur in 24% (7% to 54%) of years in the 2020s, 31% in the 2040s and 43% in the 2080s. Historically unprecedented conditions where senior water rights holders suffer shortfalls occur with increasing frequency in both A1B and B1 scenarios. Economic losses include expected annual production declines of 5%–16%, with greater probabilities of operating losses for junior water rights holders.  相似文献   

Coarse-scale data assimilation as a generic alternative to localization     

Kristian Fossum  Trond Mannseth 《Computational Geosciences》2017,21(1):167-186

Coarse-scale data assimilation (DA) with large ensemble size is proposed as a robust alternative to standard DA with localization for reservoir history matching problems. With coarse-scale DA, the unknown property function associated with each ensemble member is upscaled to a grid significantly coarser than the original reservoir simulator grid. The grid coarsening is automatic, ensemble-specific and non-uniform. The selection of regions where the grid can be coarsened without introducing too large modelling errors is performed using a second-generation wavelet transform allowing for seamless handling of non-dyadic grids and inactive grid cells. An inexpensive local-local upscaling is performed on each ensemble member. A DA algorithm that restarts from initial time is utilized, which avoids the need for downscaling. Since the DA computational cost roughly equals the number of ensemble members times the cost of a single forward simulation, coarse-scale DA allows for a significant increase in the number of ensemble members at the same computational cost as standard DA with localization. Fixing the computational cost for both approaches, the quality of coarse-scale DA is compared to that of standard DA with localization (using state-of-the-art localization techniques) on examples spanning a large degree of variability. It is found that coarse-scale DA is more robust with respect to variation in example type than each of the localization techniques considered with standard DA. Although the paper is concerned with two spatial dimensions, coarse-scale DA is easily extendible to three spatial dimensions, where it is expected that its advantage with respect to standard DA with localization will increase.  相似文献