Implications of 21st century climate change for the hydrology of Washington State   总被引：5，自引：2，他引：3  

Marketa M. Elsner  Lan Cuo  Nathalie Voisin  Jeffrey S. Deems  Alan F. Hamlet  Julie A. Vano  Kristian E. B. Mickelson  Se-Yeun Lee  Dennis P. Lettenmaier 《Climatic change》2010,102(1-2):225-260

Pacific Northwest (PNW) hydrology is particularly sensitive to changes in climate because snowmelt dominates seasonal runoff, and temperature changes impact the rain/snow balance. Based on results from the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR4), we updated previous studies of implications of climate change on PNW hydrology. PNW 21st century hydrology was simulated using 20 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and 2 greenhouse gas emissions scenarios over Washington and the greater Columbia River watershed, with additional focus on the Yakima River watershed and the Puget Sound which are particularly sensitive to climate change. We evaluated projected changes in snow water equivalent (SWE), soil moisture, runoff, and streamflow for A1B and B1 emissions scenarios for the 2020s, 2040s, and 2080s. April 1 SWE is projected to decrease by approximately 38–46% by the 2040s (compared with the mean over water years 1917–2006), based on composite scenarios of B1 and A1B, respectively, which represent average effects of all climate models. In three relatively warm transient watersheds west of the Cascade crest, April 1 SWE is projected to almost completely disappear by the 2080s. By the 2080s, seasonal streamflow timing will shift significantly in both snowmelt dominant and rain–snow mixed watersheds. Annual runoff across the State is projected to increase by 2–3% by the 2040s; these changes are mainly driven by projected increases in winter precipitation.  相似文献   

近47年雅鲁藏布江中游地区汛期降水量的小波分析   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

黄晓清  唐叔乙  罗布次仁  杨勇  永红  石磊  姜兰 《气象》2010,36(12):68-73

根据雅鲁藏布江中游地区4个代表站(拉萨、泽当、日喀则和江孜)近47年(1960—2006年)月降水量总量资料,利用墨西哥帽小波函数,分析了该地区近47年汛期(5-9月)降水量序列的周期变化特征。结果表明:雅鲁藏布江中游地区汛期降水量存在准14年和准2年的周期振荡,其中日喀则和江孜站以准14年的周期为主,而拉萨和江孜站以准2年周期为主;在12-16年左右的时间尺度上经历了8个干湿交替,而准2年周期在1964-1976年和1984-1997年期间表现得尤为显著;20世纪70年代中期以后8年左右时间尺度的周期变化显著;在近47年内有5个时段出现了不同尺度周期振荡同位相叠加,致使降水量异常年份较多。  相似文献   

青藏高原积雪异常与大气环流异常间关系分析   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

钟爱华  严华生  李跃清  夏兰 《应用气象学报》2010,21(1):37-46

在参考前人对青藏高原积雪异常年的划分成果的基础上,初步确定出1957—2003年的典型积雪异常年。采用NCEP提供的全球144×73个格点1957—2003年前一年12月至当年5月100 hPa和500 hPa的月平均高度场资料,分析了青藏高原积雪异常与大气环流异常的相互关系,提出了大气环流异常影响青藏高原积雪异常可能的天气气候成因机制;应用三因子最优子集二级判别,建立了判别青藏高原积雪多雪年/少雪年的判别方程,作为客观、定量判断高原积雪异常的指标;结合初步确定的典型青藏高原积雪异常年,用得到的最优判别方程进行划分,并经反复论证后,确定出1957—2003年青藏高原积雪正常略多年和正常略少年。  相似文献   

CINRAD-SA/SB零度层亮带识别方法   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2       下载免费PDF全文

张乐坚  程明虎  陶岚 《应用气象学报》2010,21(2):171-179

该文提出一种使用S波段多普勒天气雷达回波三维特征和反射率因子垂直廓线(vertical profile of reflectivity,VPR)来自动识别零度层亮带的方法(简称3DVPR-BBID),并利用2003年6月22日—7月11日和2007年7月合肥雷达资料、2008年6月广州雷达资料以及相应的探空资料,同仅使用VPR识别零度层亮带的方法(简称VPR-BBID)进行比较。结果表明:VPR-BBID和3DVPR-BBID在大部分情况下能够有效识别零度层亮带的存在,而且3DVPR-BBID能够减少VPR-BBID产生的误识别。在同探空资料观测的零度层高度的比较中,两种方法确定的零度层高度同实况比较接近,进一步分析表明:3DVPR-BBID确定的零度层高度比VPR-BBID确定的更接近观测值。  相似文献   

哈密市近30a家燕停留时间与气象因子的关系     

白素琴  李兰 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2009,3(5):40-43

通过对哈密气象站1980-2008年家燕物候资料和气象资料的分析,得出当地家燕物候变化规律及停留时间与气象因子的关系。结果表明：（1）家燕始见日期均在4月,其中4月中旬较多,平均日期为4月16日,绝见日期均在9月且集中于中旬,平均日期为9月16日;（2）家燕停留期为4—9月,平均停留153d;（3）停留期与同期≥0℃积温和日照时数均呈显著的正相关关系,而随降水量的变化在不同时段呈现或同向或反向的趋势;（4）≥0℃积温和日照时数均为增加趋势,总体上家燕停留期变化与二者变化趋势一致,但近6a停留期缩短。  相似文献   

footprint方法在湍流扩散分析中的应用     

夏兰  陈辉  卞林根 《气候与环境研究》2010,15(3):269-278

引入通量footprint分析方法,结合广西白龙核电厂拟建厂址的湍流实测资料,分析了观测站点不同方向上的通量footprint,并由此确定了水平扩散尺度及水平扩散时间,最终估算了水平扩散参数。与环境评价导则中推荐的扩散时间计算所得的水平扩散参数进行了对比分析。结果表明,离岸流的扩散参数比向岸流大,有利于湍流扩散,从而证明扩散参数具有偏保守性和局地扩散的特性。分析表明,footprint方法在湍流扩散参数分析中具有实际的应用价值。  相似文献   

Frequency spectrum of toroidal Alfvén mode in a neutron star with Ferraro’s form of nonhomogeneous poloidal magnetic field     

S. I. Bastrukov  H.-K. Chang  I. V. Molodtsova  E.-H. Wu  G.-T. Chen  S.-H. Lan 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2009,323(3):235-242

Using the energy variational method of magneto-solid-mechanical theory of a perfectly conducting elastic medium threaded by magnetic field, the frequency spectrum of Lorentz-force-driven global torsional nodeless vibrations of a neutron star with Ferraro’s form of axisymmetric poloidal nonhomogeneous internal and dipole-like external magnetic field is obtained and compared with that for this toroidal Alfvén mode in a neutron star with homogeneous internal and dipolar external magnetic field. The relevance of considered asteroseismic models to quasi-periodic oscillations of the X-ray flux during the ultra powerful outbursts of SGR 1806−20 and SGR 1900+14 is discussed.  相似文献   

Near-IR age-dating of red supergiant-dominated stellar populations     

Ariane Lançon  Jay S. Gallagher  Moustapha Mouhcine  Linda J. Smith  Djazia Ladjal  Richard de Grijs 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2009,324(2-4):241-245

We present new spectral synthesis models for solar metallicity stellar populations, based on a library of stellar spectra that extends across near-IR wavelengths out to 2.4 µm at a resolution approaching 1000. We show that the spectra of massive star clusters in the starburst galaxy M 82 can be reproduced very well with these models. We compare near-IR spectroscopic ages with optical ages, and discuss the main sources of (systematic) errors that still affect those ages.  相似文献   

The mass-to-light ratio of rich star clusters     

Christian M. Boily  Jean-Julien Fleck  Ariane Lançon  Florent Renaud 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2009,324(2-4):265-269

We point out a strong time evolution of the mass-to-light conversion factor, η, commonly used to estimate masses of unresolved star clusters from observed cluster spectrophotometric measures. We present a series of gas-dynamical models, coupled with the Cambridge stellar evolution tracks, to compute line-of-sight velocity dispersions and half-light radii weighted by the luminosity. We explore a range of initial conditions, varying in turn the cluster mass and/or density, and the stellar population’s initial mass function. We find that η, and hence the estimated cluster mass, may increase by as much as a factor of three over time-scales of 50 million yr. We apply these results to an hypothetic cluster mass distribution function (d.f.), and show that the d.f. shape may be strongly affected at the low-mass end by this effect. Fitting truncated isothermal (Michie–King) models to the projected light profile leads to over-estimates of the concentration parameter, c, of δ c≈0.3 compared to the same functional fit applied to the projected mass density.  相似文献   

容许土壤流失量的研究现状及其设想   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

李兰  周忠浩  刘刚才 《地球科学进展》2005,20(10):1127-1134

成土速率、土地生产力和沟蚀的控制程度是容许土壤流失量（[WTBX]T值）制定中必不可少的因素。国际上现有的T值标准主要是从土层厚度和成土速率出发,并结合实际应用的可能而定。详述了T[WTBZ]值的研究历史其主要影响因素,介绍了利用Barth模型和基于风险评价理论的[WTBX]T值的估算方法,对现有T值研究方法和研究结果中存在的问题进行了分析,提出了T[WTBZ]值应该从土壤形成速率特性（自然属性）、合理的生产力水平持续性（社会属性）、水土环境的长久安全性（自然和社会属性）几方面属性进行相应的研究。  相似文献