The influence of central black holes on gravitational lenses     

Shude Mao  Hans J. Witt  Leon V. E. Koopmans 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2001,323(2):301-307

Recent observations indicate that many if not all galaxies host massive central black holes. In this paper we explore the influence of black holes on the lensing properties. We model the lens as an isothermal ellipsoid with a finite core radius plus a central black hole. We show that the presence of the black hole substantially changes the critical curves and caustics. If the black hole mass is above a critical value, then it will completely suppress the central images for all source positions. Realistic central black holes are likely to have masses below this critical value. Even in such subcritical cases, the black hole can suppress the central image when the source is inside a zone of influence, which depends on the core radius and black hole mass. In the subcritical cases, an additional image may be created by the black hole in some regions, which for some radio lenses may be detectable with high-resolution and large dynamic range VLBI maps. The presence of central black holes should also be taken into account when one constrains the core radius from the lack of central images in gravitational lenses.  相似文献   

Evaluation of policy options for the live reef food fish trade in the province of Palawan,Western Philippines     

Robert S. Pomeroy  Michael D. Pido  John Francisco A. Pontillas  Benjamin S. Francisco  Alan T. White  Eva Marie C. Ponce De Leon  Geronimo T. Silvestre 《Marine Policy》2008

The live reef food fish (LRFF) trade has an estimated annual retail value of US$1 billion in the Asia-Pacific region and at least US$30 million in the Philippines. Palawan Province is the trade's center accounting for as much as 55% of the commodity's total export. Concern about the LRFF trade has caused the Palawan Provincial government to take action to regulate the trade. Four key policy options to address the short-term policy objective of developing a sustainable LRFF industry through the reduction of threats associated with destructive fishing and overfishing were proposed. These four policy options and associated analyses were presented to stakeholders at three separate policy consultations. The stakeholders reached a consensus that a regulated LRFF trade was the most sensible option. As a result, the Provincial Government of Palawan took action to enact “The Palawan Live Reef Fish Ordinance of 2006”, which provides for the sustainable and integrated regulation of the LRFF industry. This provincial ordinance will assist in crafting a national policy for the LRFF trade and may also be useful in revising the 1998 Philippine Fisheries Code. The key challenge is how to translate the ordinance provisions into effective on-the-ground actions.  相似文献   

Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Doug M. Smith  Adam A. Scaife  George J. Boer  Mihaela Caian  Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes  Virginie Guemas  Ed Hawkins  Wilco Hazeleger  Leon Hermanson  Chun Kit Ho  Masayoshi Ishii  Viatcheslav Kharin  Masahide Kimoto  Ben Kirtman  Judith Lean  Daniela Matei  William J. Merryfield  Wolfgang A. Müller  Holger Pohlmann  Anthony Rosati  Bert Wouters  Klaus Wyser 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(11-12):2875-2888

We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change.  相似文献   

Implications of simultaneously mitigating and adapting to climate change: initial experiments using GCAM     

Katherine Calvin  Marshall Wise  Leon Clarke  Jae Edmonds  Page Kyle  Patrick Luckow  Allison Thomson 《Climatic change》2013,117(3):545-560

Most research on future climate change discusses mitigation and impacts/adaptation separately. However, mitigation will have implications for impacts and adaptation. Similarly, impacts and adaptation will affect mitigation. This paper begins to explore these two veins of research simultaneously using an integrated assessment model. We begin by discussing the types of interactions one might expect by impact sector. Then, we develop a numerical experiment in the agriculture sector to illustrate the importance of considering mitigation, impacts, and adaptation at the same time. In our experiment, we find that climate change can reduce crop yields, resulting in an expansion of cropland to feed a growing population and a reduction in bioenergy production. These two effects, in combination, result in an increase in the cost of mitigation.  相似文献   

The High-Resolution Coronal Imager (Hi-C)     

Ken Kobayashi  Jonathan Cirtain  Amy R. Winebarger  Kelly Korreck  Leon Golub  Robert W. Walsh  Bart De Pontieu  Craig DeForest  Alan Title  Sergey Kuzin  Sabrina Savage  Dyana Beabout  Brent Beabout  William Podgorski  David Caldwell  Kenneth McCracken  Mark Ordway  Henry Bergner  Richard Gates  Sean McKillop  Peter Cheimets  Simon Platt  Nick Mitchell  David Windt 《Solar physics》2014,289(11):4393-4412

The High-Resolution Coronal Imager (Hi-C) was flown on a NASA sounding rocket on 11 July 2012. The goal of the Hi-C mission was to obtain high-resolution (≈?0.3?–?0.4′′), high-cadence (≈?5 seconds) images of a solar active region to investigate the dynamics of solar coronal structures at small spatial scales. The instrument consists of a normal-incidence telescope with the optics coated with multilayers to reflect a narrow wavelength range around 19.3 nm (including the Fe xii 19.5-nm spectral line) and a 4096×4096 camera with a plate scale of 0.1′′?pixel^?1. The target of the Hi-C rocket flight was Active Region 11520. Hi-C obtained 37 full-frame images and 86 partial-frame images during the rocket flight. Analysis of the Hi-C data indicates the corona is structured on scales smaller than currently resolved by existing satellite missions.  相似文献   

Radon emanation from the moon,spatial and temporal variability     

Paul Gorenstein  Leon Golub  Paul Bjorkholm 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》1974,9(1-2):129-140

Observations of the lunar surface with the orbiting Apollo Alpha Particle Spectrometer during the Apollo 15 and Apollo 16 missions have shown spatial and temporal variations in radon emission. There are a number of well localized features in the spatial distribution of lunar²²²Rn and her daughter²¹⁰Po which apparently correlate with sites of reported transient visual events. There are sources at Aristarchus, Grimaldi and possibly Tsiolkovsky. Activity of²¹⁰Po shows enhancement at most maria edges at rates far in excess of²²²Rn activity. This demonstrates unequivocally the presence of time varying radon activity at the maria edges, taking place at the present time. The increased radon emission is probably caused by sporadic internal activity. In analogy to terrestial processes, radon may be merely a trace component accompanying the release of larger quantities of more common gases to the lunar surface.  相似文献   

Energy Release in Earthquakes   总被引：9，自引：0，他引：9  

Leon Knopoff 《Geophysical Journal International》1958,1(1):44-52

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Hyper-elliptic orbits     

Leon Blitzer 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1987,42(1-4):215-222

A survey of classes of elliptical orbits outside the usual ones due to the attractive direct power and inverse square force laws reveals some extremely interesting orbits with surprising dynamical characteristics. Particular elliptical orbits of interest in celestial mechanics are discussed.  相似文献   

An Equation of State for the Core of the Earth     

Leon Knopoff  Gordon J. F. MacDonald 《Geophysical Journal International》1960,3(1):68-77

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The gravitational potential due to uniform disks and rings   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Harry Lass  Leon Blitzer 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1983,30(3):225-228

The gravitational potential due to thin uniform disks and rings is obtained in closed form in terms of complete elliptic integrals.  相似文献