利用HBV水文预报模型推算贺江流域洪水致灾临界雨量     

黄卓  黄远盼  韦小雪  廖雪萍  李耀先 《气象科技》2018,46(4):738-743

利用逐日气象水文资料,针对贺江流域进行HBV水文模型率定与验证,获得降水-流量关系,结合广西贺州市信都水文站的水位-流量关系,推算得到3个洪水风险预警级别对应的临界雨量,并通过2次历史洪水过程,检验该临界雨量在暴雨洪涝灾害风险预警中的应用效果。结果表明:(1)由HBV水文模型确定的贺江流域3个不同洪水风险等级下24h、48h的致灾临界雨量,预警效果较好;(2)HBV模型能很好地反映降水对贺江水文过程的影响,可为贺江流域暴雨洪涝灾害防御工作提供决策参考。  相似文献   

武汉市一次对流梅雨暴雨过程诊断分析     

张端禹  崔春光  廖移山 《气象科技》2018,46(3):594-604

2016年7月5—6日武汉市发生对流梅雨暴雨,出现严重城市内涝。分析对流云团活动、天气系统与物理量演变,结果表明:(1)对流云团来自江汉平原东部,暴雨前期对流云团合并发生在2个β云团之间,中期2个β云团先后与1个α云团合并,后期对流云团无明显合并,虽有向西的指状对流云生成,武汉市强降雨还是开始减弱。(2)暴雨发生在200hPa南亚高压东伸脊北侧,500hPa副热带高压在江南加强西进过程中,500hPa纬向切变转为低槽东移,850hPa江汉平原低涡则是迴旋少动,高空偏北风急流左侧水汽辐散与偏南风低空急流前方水汽辐合耦合有利于启动强降雨。(3)武汉站200~850hPa,500~850hPa风垂直切变明显,400hPa干空气入侵,共同触发了强降雨。  相似文献   

广西霾天气系统分型   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

廖国莲  郑凤琴  曾鹏  莫雨淳 《气象科技》2018,46(1):149-154

利用2009—2013年NCEP再分析资料和广西14个地级市的历史气象资料,通过天气学方法对广西233个霾日对应的天气系统进行了分类,将形成广西霾日的天气系统分成冷高压脊控制型、入海高压后部型、低压槽型、均压场型、冷锋前部型、副高控制型、静止锋暖区型和热带气旋外围型共8种类型,研究了各类型天气系统的特点及其在广西霾形成中的作用。结果表明:冷高压脊控制型、入海高压后部型、均压场型和低压槽型是4种主要的环流型,造成的广西霾日较多,静止锋暖区型和热带气旋外围型造成的霾日较少;冷高压脊控制型和副高控制型的霾过程持续时间比较长,冷锋前部型的霾过程持续时间最短;地面风速较小,中低空为下沉气流是出现霾日时各类天气型的共同特征。  相似文献   

A fine-grained perspective on the robustness of global cargo ship transportation networks   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Peng Peng  Shifen Cheng  Jinhai Chen  Mengdi Liao  Lin Wu  Xiliang Liu  Feng Lu 《地理学报(英文版)》2018,28(7):881-899

The robustness of cargo ship transportation networks is essential to the stability of the world trade system. The current research mainly focuses on the coarse-grained, holistic cargo ship transportation network while ignoring the structural diversity of different sub-networks. In this paper, we evaluate the robustness of the global cargo ship transportation network based on the most recent Automatic Identification System (AIS) data available. First, we subdivide three typical cargo ship transportation networks (i.e., oil tanker, container ship and bulk carrier) from the original cargo ship transportation network. Then, we design statistical indices based on complex network theory and employ four attack strategies, including random attack and three intentional attacks (i.e., degree-based attack, betweenness- based attack and flux-based attack) to evaluate the robustness of the three typical cargo ship transportation networks. Finally, we compare the integrity of the remaining ports of the network when a small proportion of ports lose their function. The results show that 1) compared with the holistic cargo ship transportation network, the fine-grain-based cargo ship transportation networks can fully reflect the pattern and process of global cargo transportation; 2) different cargo ship networks behave heterogeneously in terms of their robustness, with the container network being the weakest and the bulk carrier network being the strongest; and 3) small-scale intentional attacks may have significant influence on the integrity of the container network but a minor impact on the bulk carrier and oil tanker transportation networks. These conclusions can help improve the decision support capabilities in maritime transportation planning and emergency response and facilitate the establishment of a more reliable maritime transportation system.  相似文献   

Assessment and determinants of per capita household CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions (PHCEs) based on capital city level in China     

Lina Liu  Jiansheng Qu  Zhiqiang Zhang  Jingjing Zeng  Jinping Wang  Liping Dong  Huijuan Pei  Qin Liao 《地理学报(英文版)》2018,28(10):1467-1484

Household CO₂ emissions were increasing due to rapid economic growth and different household lifestyle. We assessed per capita household CO₂ emissions (PHCEs) based on different household consuming demands (including clothing, food, residence, transportation and service) by using provincial capital city level survey data in China. The results showed that: (1) there was a declining trend moving from eastward to westward as well as moving from northward to southward in the distribution of PHCEs. (2) PHCEs from residence demand were the largest which accounted for 44% of the total. (3) Correlation analysis and spatial analysis (Spatial Lag Model (SLM) and Spatial Error Model (SEM)) were used to evaluate the complex determinants of PHCEs. Per capita income (PI) and household size (HS) were analyzed as the key influencing factors. We concluded that PHCEs would increase by 0.2951% and decrease by 0.5114% for every 1% increase in PI and HS, respectively. According to the results, policy-makers should consider household consuming demand, income disparity and household size on the variations of PHCEs. The urgency was to improve technology and change household consuming lifestyle to reduce PHCEs.  相似文献   

河流洪涝对城市公共安全应急响应能力的影响研究——以上海市外环以内中心城区为例   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

经雅梦  殷杰  叶明武  廖邦固  尹占娥  许世远 《地理科学》2018,38(11):1924-1932

以上海市外环以内中心城区作为研究区域,采用洪涝情景模拟与GIS网络分析相结合的研究方法,评估了当前以及未来不同重现期河流洪涝情景下城市公共安全（110）应急响应能力。研究结果表明：在洪涝情景下,部分城市路网瘫痪、交通中断,应急车辆无法通行,公安应急服务空间可达性范围较正常情况明显变小,应急响应能力降低;由于高脆弱性区域（棚户区）主要位于黄浦江沿岸地区,江水漫溢导致淹没路段较多,因此部分棚户区的救援时间会出现延迟甚至失去应急救援服务。通过对河流洪涝情景下城市公共安全（110）应急响应能力的评估研究,可为城市洪涝灾害应急响应部门制定预防与应对措施提供理论和科学依据,具有重要的现实意义。  相似文献   

Iteration convergence condition modeling for single spaceborne SAR image direct positioning     

Yuting Dong  Mingsheng Liao 《地球空间信息科学学报》2016,19(4):278-284

Single SAR image direct positioning is to determine the ground coordinate for each pixel in the SAR image assisted with a reference DEM. During this procedure, an iterative procedure is essentially needed to solve the uncertainty in elevation of each pixel in the SAR image. However, such an iterative procedure may suffer from the problem of divergence in shaded and serious layover areas. To investigate this problem, we performed a theoretical analysis on the convergence conditions that has not been intensively studied till now. The Range-Doppler (RD) model was simplified and then the general surface is degenerated into a planar surface. Mathematical deduction was then carried out to derive the convergence conditions and the impact factors for the convergence speed were evaluated. The theoretical findings were validated by experiments for both simulated and real scenarios.  相似文献   

Absolute geolocation accuracy of high-resolution spotlight TerraSAR-X imagery – validation in Wuhan     

Jinghui Wang  Mingsheng Liao 《地球空间信息科学学报》2016,19(4):267-272

TerraSAR-X (TSX) can acquire high-resolution SAR images and due to its high orbit precision as well as its ability to acquire data from different off-nadir viewing angles, the high-precision stereo geolocation can be obtained. In this study, we investigate the absolute geolocation accuracy of TSX high-resolution images in Wuhan, China. We present a direct stereo SAR geolocation method and analyze the 2D and 3D geoposition accuracy of two corner reflectors. The sub-meter localization accuracy was achieved using only atmospheric correction information available in the TSX metadata.  相似文献   

河南省墒情预报业务服务系统   总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5  

刘荣花  朱自玺  邓天宏  方文松  付祥军 《气象》2005,31(8):77-80

在以往对作物不同生育阶段的耗水规律、适宜水分、干旱指标和农田土壤水分变化规律进行了大量研究工作的基础上,根据农业生产可持续发展的需要,开发研制了集河南省农田水分监测、预报和灌溉决策服务于一体的土壤墒情预报业务服务系统。该系统可较准确地预报未来一个月内的土壤墒情变化,并可根据作物发育特点,给出以最高产量和最佳经济效益为目标的灌溉建议。  相似文献   

CGCS2000板块运动模型建立方法研究     

高乐  成英燕  廖静娟 《大地测量与地球动力学》2011,31(6):58-62

使用国家级CORS站数据,建立了CGCS2000板块运动模型,该模型可以提供高精度的速度场,实现2000历元至当前历元的点位的归算。  相似文献