An improved UK local magnitude scale from analysis of shear and Lg-wave amplitudes     

David C. Booth 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,169(2):593-601

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Towards quantifying uncertainty in transient climate change   总被引：2，自引：3，他引：2  

Matthew Collins  Ben B. B. Booth  Glen R. Harris  James M. Murphy  David M. H. Sexton  Mark J. Webb 《Climate Dynamics》2006,27(2-3):127-147

Ensembles of coupled atmosphere–ocean global circulation model simulations are required to make probabilistic predictions of future climate change. “Perturbed physics” ensembles provide a new approach in which modelling uncertainties are sampled systematically by perturbing uncertain parameters. The aim is to provide a basis for probabilistic predictions in which the impact of prior assumptions and observational constraints can be clearly distinguished. Here we report on the first perturbed physics coupled atmosphere–ocean model ensemble in which poorly constrained atmosphere, land and sea-ice component parameters are varied in the third version of the Hadley Centre model (the variation of ocean parameters will be the subject of future study). Flux adjustments are employed, both to reduce regional sea surface temperature (SST) and salinity biases and also to admit the use of combinations of model parameter values which give non-zero values for the global radiation balance. This improves the extent to which the ensemble provides a credible basis for the quantification of uncertainties in climate change, especially at a regional level. However, this particular implementation of flux-adjustments leads to a weakening of the Atlantic overturning circulation, resulting in the development of biases in SST and sea ice in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. Nevertheless, model versions are produced which are of similar quality to the unperturbed and un-flux-adjusted version. The ensemble is used to simulate pre-industrial conditions and a simple scenario of a 1% per year compounded increase in CO₂. The range of transient climate response (the 20 year averaged global warming at the time of CO₂ doubling) is 1.5–2.6°C, similar to that found in multi-model studies. Measures of global and large scale climate change from the coupled models show simple relationships with associated measures computed from atmosphere-mixed-layer-ocean climate change experiments, suggesting that recent advances in computing the probability density function of climate change under equilibrium conditions using the perturbed physics approach may be extended to the transient case.  相似文献   

A Duplex Model for the Eastern Cape Fold Belt? Evidence from the Palaeozoic Witteberg and Bokkeveld Groups (Cape Supergroup), Near Steytlerville, South Africa     

P.W.K. Booth  G. Brunsdon  R.W. Shone 《Gondwana Research》2004,7(1):211-222

The eastern part of the Cape Fold Belt, near Steytlerville, South Africa, reveals a typical pattern of numerous, north-verging thrust faults and associated folds, interpreted as part of a large duplex structure that formed along the southern margin of Gondwana during the Late Palaeozoic. Steeply-dipping fore- and backthrusts occur in the Bokkeveld Group (middle Cape Supergroup), where strata are composed of predominantly argillaceous rocks, whereas in the more arenaceous Witteberg Group (upper Cape Supergroup) there are fewer recognizable and less closely-spaced thrusts. Open style folds characterize areas in which the Bokkeveld Group crops out, but in areas of Witteberg outcrop, folds, especially those adjacent to thrusts, are often overturned.In spite of a general absence of marker horizons, a displacement of at least 500 metres can be inferred for one prominent thrust, the Jackalsbos thrust. This fault, the northernmost in the area investigated, is probably the sole thrust in the duplex structure, linked through southward-dipping imbricates to a projected roof thrust (the Baviaanskloof thrust) cropping out immediately south of the study area.Displacements on imbricates within the duplex are difficult if not impossible to measure, but the net effect is certainly accumulative and incremental. Truncation by a roof thrust and subsequent erosional processes may explain why so few of the many thrusts so far identified in the eastern part of the fold belt can be successfully mapped, and their displacements measured. Normal and strike-slip faults, less common than thrust faults, formed during extensional tectonism related to the breakup of Gondwana, during the Mesozoic.  相似文献   

Peatland Initiation During the Holocene in Continental Western Canada   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Linda A. Halsey  Dale H. Vitt  Ilka E. Bauer 《Climatic change》1998,40(2):315-342

Today, the southern limit of peatlands in continental western Canada is largely limited by thermal seasonal aridity, although physiographic parameters of substrate texture, topography, and salinity also exsert important controls on the presence and absence of peatlands. Factors that control peatland distribution today also operated in the past, thus the initiation of peatlands during the Holocene was mainly limited by aridity and physiography. Calibrated radiocarbon dates of basal peat deposits from 90 locations across continental western Canada indicate that peat formation began approximately 8,000 to 9,000 years BP in nucleation zones along the upper elevations of the Montane region of Alberta and in northern Alberta uplands after an initial deglacial lag. Predictions of maximum early Holocene summer insolation by climate simulations provide a mechanism for limiting peatland establishment during the early Holocene. From 6,000 to 8,000 years ago, peat formation in continental western Canada expanded eastwards into Manitoba responding to decreases in summer insolation. Peatland expansion during the early Holocene was more extensive in Alberta than in Manitoba in response to a southwesterly shift in the Arctic front. The displacement of the Arctic front allowed for more frequent incursions of moist Pacific air into Alberta while limiting it in Manitoba. After 6,000 years BP, the trend of southeasterly peatland expansion continued. Peatlands are youngest in the southern Boreal Forest and Aspen Parkland Region as well as in the lower elevations of the Peace-Wapiti River drainage basin, forming over the last 3,000 to 4,000 years. Peatlands are also young in the lower elevations of the Hudson Bay Lowlands where peat initiation has been limited by timing of emergence from glacial rebound. The spatial and temporal distribution of peatland initiation during the Holocene is verified by existing pollen records and corroborates some simulated climate models.  相似文献   

Development of an earthquake loss model for Turkish catastrophe insurance   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Julian Bommer  Robin Spence  Mustafa Erdik  Shigeko Tabuchi  Nuray Aydinoglu  Edmund Booth  Domenico del Re  Oliver Peterken 《Journal of Seismology》2002,6(3):431-446

Following the devastating Kocaeli and Düzce earthquakes of August andNovember 1999, the Turkish Government was faced with an enormousfinancial burden as a result of its statutory obligation to cover the full costsof rebuilding. In order to offset this liability in the future – which has hadan adverse effect on the Government's economic programme – acompulsory earthquake insurance scheme has been introduced for allhouseholders in Turkey. A key element for successful implementation ofthis novel and ambitious programme is the transfer of the earthquake riskabsorbed by the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool (TCIP) to theinternational reinsurance market. An earthquake loss model, described inthis paper, has been developed for the TCIP to serve as a basis for thedecision-making process with respect to the pricing of its insurance policy,risk control, the purchase of reinsurance, and the transfer of seismic risk.Sample results of the loss calculations are presented.  相似文献   

Convection and lunar thermal history     

Patrick Cassen  Ray T. Reynolds  Frank Graziani  Audrey Summers  John McNellis  Linda Blalock 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》1979,19(2):183-196

The effect of solid convection on the thermal evolution of the Moon is explored for a variety of viscosities, radioactive differentiation efficiencies and initial temperature profiles. Convective heat flux in the models is calculated using an empirical relation derived from the results of laboratory experiments and numerical solutions of the Navier-Stokes equations. The method retains the spherically symmetric approximation and, therefore, greatly facilitates numerical calculations.Results show that even though solid convection may determine the thermal state of the lunar interior, it does not necessarily produce a quasi-steady thermal balance between heat sources and surface loss. An imbalance persists, due to the cooling and growth of the nonconvecting lithosphere. The state of the lithosphere is sensitive to the efficiency of heat source redistribution, while that of the convecting interior depends primarily on rheology. Convecting models have viscosities of 10²¹–10²² cm²s^?1 in their interiors; the central temperature must be above 1100°C. Convection occurring within the first billion years after formation could have led to mare flooding by magma produced in hot zones of convection cells. However, it cannot be shown from model calculations alone that solid convection must have dominated lunar thermal history.  相似文献   

A comparison of residual currents estimated with current meters and a parachute drogue in a shallow sea     

David A. Booth  Michael J. Howarth  Joseph A. Durance  John H. Simpson 《Ocean Dynamics》1978,31(6):237-248

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Pollen distribution in the northeast Pacific Ocean     

Linda Heusser  William L. Balsam 《Quaternary Research》1977,7(1):45-62

Distributional patterns of palynomorphs in core tops from the continental margin of the northeast Pacific Ocean (30°–60°N lat 118°–150°W long) reflect the effects of fluvial and marine sedimentation as well as the distribution of terrestrial vegetation. Maximum pollen concentration (grains/cm³ of marine sediment) occurs off the mouth of the Columbia River and off San Francisco Bay (the outlet of the San Joaquin and Sacramento Rivers) and appears to be coincident with areas of high terrigenous lutite deposition. The abundance of pollen and spores in shelf sediments is extremely variable with high concentrations typical only of the finest sediments. On the slope, rise and abyssal plain, pollen concentration shows a general decrease with distance from shore. This suggests that in the northeast Pacific pollen is transported into the marine environment primarily by rivers and that, in terms of sedimentation, pollen may be regarded as part of the organic component of fine-grained lutum.Pinus, the principal pollen component of marine sediment on the northeast Pacific margin, is concentrated adjacent to the major drainage systems of areas in which pine grows. Tsuga heterophylla, Picea, and Alnus, important components of the temperate conifer forest, are concentrated off the area of their optimal development, western Washington. Quercus, Sequoia, and Compositae concentrations are greater off the southern California coast where they are prominent in the vegetation. The relative (percent) abundance of most of these pollen taxa in marine sediments reflects a positive relationship to their distribution on land. Picea and Alnus are relatively more important north of 45°N, Tsuga heterophylla between 45°–50°N, and Quercus, Sequoia, and Compositae south of 40°N. Pine percentages increase seaward, from less than 10% of the pollen sum in shelf sediments to over 50% in sediments on the abyssal plain. This seems to indicate selective transport of pine pollen. Factor analysis of pollen data from the 61 core tops results in four pollen assemblages. Three of these assemblages (Quercus-Compositae-Sequoia, Tsuga heterophylla-Pinus, and Alnus-Picea) reflect the distribution of vegetation on the adjacent continent, one (Pinus) reflects primarily the effects of marine sedimentation.  相似文献   

Problems Interpreting Samples Taken with Large-Volume, Falling-Suction Soil-Water Samplers     

Linda Davis Anderson 《Ground water》1986,24(6):761-769

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Groundmass oxide minerals in the Koidu kimberlite dikes,Sierra Leone,West Africa     

Linda A. Tompkins  Stephen E. Haggerty 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》1985,91(3):245-263

Petrology and oxide mineral chemistry are presented on 5 kimberlite dikes that are classified into three groups: (1) one dike is highly carbonated and highly oxidized (> MH) and is characterised by chlorite+Mn-titanomagnetite+rutile+hematite (after chlorite)+maghemite (after titanomagnetite), with ilmenite and perovskite being absent; (2) three dikes are typified by atoll-textured spinels +phlogopite+euhedral Mn-picroilmenite, of intermediate oxidation state (WM-FMQ) with coexisting deuterically serpentinized olivine+Ni-Fe alloys and magnetite; (3) the remaining dike records an early crystallization event under very low ( WM) redox conditions that precipitated anionic-deficient spinels and a Mg-Ti-Cr-wüstite-type phase, followed by late stage more oxidizing (=FMQ) Mnpicroilmenite.Spinels are complexly zoned and crystallization trends among the dikes are diverse, underscoring the fact that no single compositional trend, or evolutionary sequence is typical of kimberlites. Ilmenites are euhedral, and criteria for groundmass crystallization are established. Extraordinarily high MnO (max 17 wt%) contents and high geikielite (62 mole%) concentrations expand the ilmenite field typically assigned to that of kimberlites. Zirconium, Nb and Cr are present in concentrations of 0.5–3 wt% (as oxides) in ilmenite. These highly incompatible elements, along with Mn, are concentrated in late stage melt fractions. The high pyrophanite contents, which are more typical of silicic alkali suites, are accompanied by phlogopite in the Koidu dikes.Objective evaluations of kimberlite-carbonatite relations, as outlined in the literature, cannot be made based on the oxide mineral group. Much of the compositional data for oxides in kimberlites are on mantle-derived xenolith suites and are not from oxides derived from the crystallization of kimberlitic melts.Assessments of the fO₂'s of kimberlites have considerable potential in evaluating diamond survival through redox reactions. Manganese-rich (+Nb, Zr, Cr) ilmenites are typical of many kimberlites and should be considered in the suite of index minerals employed in prospecting.  相似文献