Intradaily variability of water quality in a shallow tidal lagoon: Mechanisms and implications     

Lisa V. Lucas  Deanna M. Sereno  Jon R. Burau  Tara S. Schraga  Cary B. Lopez  Mark T. Stacey  Konstantin V. Parchevsky  Vladimir P. Parchevsky 《Estuaries and Coasts》2006,29(5):711-730

Although surface water quality and its underlying processes vary over time scales ranging from seconds to decades, they have historically been studied at the lower (weekly to interannual) frequencies. The aim of this study was to investigate intradaily variability of three water quality parameters in a small freshwater tidal lagoon (Mildred Island, California). High frequency time series of specific conductivity, water temperature, and chlorophylla at two locations within the habitat were analyzed in conjunction with supporting hydrodynamic, meteorological, biological, and spatial mapping data. All three constituents exhibited large amplitude intradaily (e.g., semidiurnal tidal and diurnal) oscillations, and periodicity varied across constituents, space, and time. Like other tidal embayments, this habitat is influenced by several processes with distinct periodicities including physical controls, such as tides, solar radiation, and wind, and biological controls, such as photosynthesis, growth, and grazing. A scaling approach was developed to estimate individual process contributions to the observed variability. Scaling results were generally consistent with observations and together with detailed examination of time series and time derivatives, revealed specific mechanisms underlying the observed periodicities, including interactions between the tidal variability, heating, wind, and biology. The implications for monitoring were illustrated through subsampling of the data set. This exercise demonstrated how quantities needed by scientists and managers (e.g., mean or extreme concentrations) may be misrepresented by low frequency data and how short-duration high frequency measurements can aid in the design and interpretation of temporally coarser sampling programs. The dispersive export of chlorophylla from the habitat exhibited a fortnightly variability corresponding to the modulation of semidiurnal tidal currents with the diurnal cycle of phytoplankton variability, demonstrating how high frequency interactions can govern long-term trends. Process identification, as through the scaling analysis here, can help us anticipate changes in system behavior and adapt our own interactions with the system.  相似文献   

Ecological response to hurricane events in the Pamlico Sound system, North Carolina, and implications for assessment and management in a regime of increased frequency   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Hans W. Paerl  Lexia M. Valdes  Alan R. Joyner  Benjamin L. Peierls  Michael F. Piehler  Stanley R. Riggs  Robert R. Christian  Lisa A. Eby  Larry B. Crowder  Joseph S. Ramus  Erika J. Clesceri  Christopher P. Buzzelli  Richard A. Luettich 《Estuaries and Coasts》2006,29(6):1033-1045

Since the mid 1990s, the Atlantic and Gulf Coast regions have experienced a dramatic increase in the number of hurricane landfalls. In eastern North Carolina alone, eight hurricances have affected the coast in the past 9 years. These storms have exhibited individualistic hydrologic, nutrient, and sediment loading effects and represent a formidable challenge to nutrient management aimed at reducing eutrophication in the Pamlico Sound and its estuarine tributaries. Different rainfall amounts among hurricanes lead to variable freshwater and nutrient discharge and variable nutrient, organic matter, and sediment enrichment. These enrichments differentially affected physical and chemical properties (salinity, water residence time, transparency, stratification, dissolved oxygen), phytoplankton primary production, and phytoplankton community composition. Contrasting ecological responses were accompanied, by changes in nutrient and oxygen cycling, habitat, and higher trophic levels, including different direct effects on fish populations. Floodwaters from the two largest hurricances, Fran (1996) and Floyd (1999), exerted, multi-month to multi-annual effects on hydrology, nutrient loads, productivity, and biotic composition. Relatively low rainfall coastal hurricanes like Isabel (2003) and Ophelia (2005) caused strong vertical mixing and storm surges, but relatively minor hydrologic and nutrient effects. Both hydrologic loading and wind forcing are important drivers and must be integrated with nutrient loading in assessing short-term and long-term ecological effects of these storms. These climatic forcings cannot be managed but should be considered in the development of water quality management strategies for these and other large estuarine ecosystems faced with increasing frequencies and intensities of hurricane activity.  相似文献   

Stress transfer in earthquakes, hazard estimation and ensemble forecasting: Inferences from numerical simulations     

John B. Rundle  Paul B. Rundle  Andrea Donnellan  P. Li  W. Klein  Gleb Morein  D.L. Turcotte  Lisa Grant   《Tectonophysics》2006,413(1-2):109

Observations indicate that earthquake faults occur in topologically complex, multi-scale networks driven by plate tectonic forces. We present realistic numerical simulations, involving data-mining, pattern recognition, theoretical analyses and ensemble forecasting techniques, to understand how the observable space–time earthquake patterns are related to the fundamentally inaccessible and unobservable dynamics. Numerical simulations can also help us to understand how the different scales involved in earthquake physics interact and influence the resulting dynamics. Our simulations indicate that elastic interactions (stress transfer) combined with the nonlinearity in the frictional failure threshold law lead to the self-organization of the statistical dynamics, producing 1) statistical distributions for magnitudes and frequencies of earthquakes that have characteristics similar to those possessed by the Gutenberg–Richter magnitude–frequency distributions observed in nature; and 2) clear examples of stress transfer among fault activity described by stress shadows, in which an earthquake on one group of faults reduces the Coulomb failure stress on other faults, thereby delaying activity on those faults. In this paper, we describe the current state of modeling and simulation efforts for Virtual California, a model for all the major active strike slip faults in California. Noting that the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP) uses statistical distributions to produce earthquake forecast probabilities, we demonstrate that Virtual California provides a powerful tool for testing the applicability and reliability of the WGCEP statistical methods. Furthermore, we show how the simulations can be used to develop statistical earthquake forecasting techniques that are complementary to the methods used by the WGCEP, but improve upon those methods in a number of important ways. In doing so, we distinguish between the “official” forecasts of the WGCEP, and the “research-quality” forecasts that we discuss here. Finally, we provide a brief discussion of future problems and issues related to the development of ensemble earthquake hazard estimation and forecasting techniques.  相似文献   

Vertical distribution of stable isotopic composition in atmospheric water vapor and subsurface water in grassland and forest sites, eastern Mongolia     

Maki Tsujimura  Lisa Sasaki  Atsuko Sugimoto  Dai Matsushima  Mijiddorj Saandar 《Journal of Hydrology》2007,333(1):35-46

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Modeling estuarine nutrient geochemistry in a simple system     

Lisa Wells Kaul  Philip N. Froelich 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》1984,48(7):1417-1433

We present a model of estuarine mixing, removal, and input for dissolved constituents, and apply the model to 39 nutrient (P, N, Si) profiles collected over a 14-month period in a pristine river/ estuary: Ochlockonee Bay, Florida. Each profile is deconvolved into three component functions: linear mixing (conservative) first-order removal (biological productivity), and parabolic input (regeneration). After correction for temporal variations in the fluvial end-members, the model provides quantitative estimates of total estuarine primary production, net regeneration, and subsequent fluxes to the ocean over a year-long period. The modeled data set is internally self-consistent: virtually perfect mass balances are obtained for P and Si. All biological P-uptake is regenerated within the estuary so that virtually 100% of the fluvial reactive-P enters the ocean. One-third of the fluvial reactive-P enters the estuary as particles whose phosphate is released after deposition in estuarine sediments. About 20% of the dissolved fluvial silica flux is removed biologically; all of this biogenic silica dissolves in the estuary and enters the ocean. N cannot be mass balanced, probably because it enters and escapes the bay in unmeasured forms (as NH₄ or via denitrification to N₂ and N₂O). In the Ochlockonee, biological productivity removes nutrients in the ratios N:P ? 9:1 and Si:P ? 20:1.  相似文献   

Isochronous fluvial systems in Miocene deposits of Northern Pakistan   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Anna K. Behrensmeyer  Lisa Tauxe† 《Sedimentology》1982,29(3):331-352

A Palacomagnetic isochron dated at about 8.1 Myr BP and detailed lithostratigraph of a 40 m interval exposed along strike for 40 km establish the depositional patterns of two contemporaneous, interfingering fluvial systems in the upper part of the Meddle Siwalik sequence. The two systems, referred to as the buff and blue-grey, differ in unit shape, lithofacies, bedding sequence, palaeocurrent direction and sand composition. Interfingering occurs along the south-west-north-east strike of the outcrops, with the palaeodrainage directions of the two systems generally perpendicular to this line. The axis of the blue-grey system, which deposited widespread sheet sands and silts, lay toward the south west end of the study area. The more complex axis of the buff system, which deposited shoe-string sand bodies and lage volumes of silt and clay, lay toward the north-east. The source area for both systems was the rising Himalyan belt to the north and noth-east of the study area. At maximum extent the blue-grey system occupied a channel belt at least 25 km wide. Channel belt widths and depths for the buff system are 1–3 km and 3–7 m, respectively. Current directions averge 94° for blue-grey sands and 136° for buff sands. Blur-grey sands contain 20% more rock fragments and are otherwise less mature than buff sands. The buff system shows a verticla pattern of avulsion, palaeosol formation and floodplain aggradation which we attribute to autocyclic processes of parallel rivers. The blue-grey system shows phases of erosion accompaniced laterally by plaeosol formation, folowed by valley fill and overfowing of interfluve surfaces. Theis pattern may be caused by allocyclic presses affecting the source area. We interpret the blue-grey system as a major drainage from the interior Himalayas (perhaps the ancestral Indus) and the buff system as a complex of smaller drinages along the mountain front which were probably ributaries to the bluegrey syste. Vertebrate fossils including hominoid primates from the area are almost exclusively associated with lithofacies of the buff system, and this probably refects both taphonomic and palaeoecological differences between the two systems.  相似文献   

Slow earthquakes along oceanic fracture zones: evidence for asthenospheric flow away from hotspots?     

Emile A. Okal  Lisa M. Stewart 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1982,57(1):75-87

The regime of strain release along transform faults of the Mid-Oceanic Ridge system is studied. It is shown that earthquakes along certain fracture zones exhibit systematic discrepancies between values of their magnitudes measured at short and long periods, implying a regime of slower strain release, also observed in a pattern of complex body waveshapes. These “slow” fracture zones do not correlate with simple geographic or kinematic properties, but usually occur in the neighborhood of hotspot volcanism, frequently also characterized by gravity and bathymetry anomalies. We propose that regimes of slow strain release may be due to a partial lubrication of the fault along these fracture zones, which may itself be due to asthenospheric flow from the nearby hotspots, along the pattern of pipelines described by Vogt and Johnson and by Morgan.  相似文献   

Seismic stratigraphy and sedimentation history of the East Mariana Basin,western Pacific     

Thomas H. Shipley  Jill M. Whitman  Frederick K. Duennebier  Lisa D. Petersen 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1983,64(2):257-275

An interpretation of the seismic stratigraphy and sedimentation history of the East Mariana Basin has been made using recently collected seismic reflection and refraction data. This Mesozoic(?) age basin, between the Marshall Islands and the Mariana Trench, is subdivided into three regions. The central region with about 1000 m of sediment probably records Jurassic to Late Cretaceous sedimentation of a pelagic biogenic and clay-rich section overlain by a thick section of mainly Cenozoic carbonates shed from nearby volcanic platforms. A western region is characterized by a thinner sediment cover and a shallower acoustic basement with a similar sedimentation history except that the upper section is thinner as a consequence of fewer nearby volcanic highs. Extensive Late Cretaceous mid-plate volcanics apparently masks the lower section and forms acoustic basement. The shallower eastern region (east of 157.5°E) contains WNW-trending ridges which may be either fracture zones or high-amplitude abyssal hills. The sedimentation appears controlled by the same factors as in the other regions but the area was bypassed by most Cenozoic basin-filling turbidites because of its elevation.The isostatistically corrected basement depths between the three regions suggest that the crust in the east may be substantially younger than in the rest of the East Mariana Basin, perhaps Cretaceous in age. This requires the existence of a tectonic boundary within the basin.  相似文献   

A negative search for an ultra-slow component to the source of the Yunnan earthquakes of May 29, 1976     

Emile A. Okal  Lisa M. Stewart 《Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors》1981,26(3):208-216

Following Nagamune's suggestion of a giant, but very slow, component to the source of the Yunnan earthquakes of May 29, 1976, a systematic study of the ultra-low frequency content of a number of tiltmeter, strainmeter, and IDA records of the events is conducted. First, Nagamune's hypothesis is quantified, and it is found that it would require a moment in the range 10²⁹–10³⁰ dyn-cm. Such a large moment would have important consequences for our understanding of stress release in the plates, but is incompatible with the extent of the aftershock zone, and with observations on other instruments: specifically, only one IDA record shows a time-domain oscillation which may be related to the proposed source. In the Fourier domain, however, a spectral analysis fails to identify any of the Earth's modes in any of the available records, including the one originally used by Nagamune. It must therefore be concluded that the apparent signal present in a few records is due to noise—probably of instrumental origin—rather than to an ultra-low-frequency component of the seismic source.  相似文献   

‘This was different’: transferring climate mitigation knowledge practices south to south with the MAPS programme     

Lisa Kane  Michael Boulle 《Climate Policy》2018,18(9):1177-1188

This article is a case study of the Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios programme (MAPS) which worked in climate change mitigation and development policy-making spaces in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and South Africa from 2010–2015. The MAPS programme was focused on achieving change in the commitment of southern decision makers to mitigate against climate change through government-mandated, stakeholder processes which generated evidence making a case for a low carbon transition. The article draws on reflective materials generated in the last year of the project. The value of MAPS was found in the well-tested data and evidence-driven scenario building; locally specific and country-driven processes; a culture of knowledge sharing through facilitated communities of practice; the role of professional facilitation in process design and in conducting stakeholder processes; shared experiences of working in the south, and particularly with cultural differences and conflict; and new ways of working south–south with each other, and with donors. These MAPS programme experiences stood in contrast to previous north–south knowledge sharing involvements. Theoretically, the article asks whether MAPS represents southern theory-making (after Connell, 2007). It concludes that through the action-oriented, facilitated co-production way of working on climate change in the south, MAPS represents an understanding of southern theory that challenges the orthodoxy of global knowledge production. MAPS emphasizes the need for theorizing in, and of, the south, and connecting policy and practices.

Key policy insights

• Climate change mitigation work in the south faces poorly resourced, fragmented, under-capacitated governance structures, often in conflicted settings.

• Given conflicted settings, skilled facilitation is an integral part of knowledge-making processes.

• Strong local communities of practice, who undertake learning-by-doing and are connected to ‘stubborn’ development realities, are also key to knowledge-making.

• Intentional co-production of data and evidence enable peer-to-peer learning and the trust-building which is vital to strong communities of practice.

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