Homogeneity analysis of precipitation series in Iran     

P. Hosseinzadeh Talaee  Mahdi Kouchakzadeh  B. Shifteh Some’e 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2014,118(1-2):297-305

Assessment of the reliability and quality of historical precipitation data is required in the modeling of hydrology and water resource processes and for climate change studies. The homogeneity of the annual and monthly precipitation data sets throughout Iran was tested using the Bayesian, Cumulative Deviations, and von Neumann tests at a significance level of 0.05. The precipitation records from 41 meteorological stations covering the years between 1966 and 2005 were considered. The annual series of Iranian precipitation were found to be homogeneous by applying the Bayesian and Cumulative Deviations tests, while the von Neumann test detected inhomogeneities at seven stations. Almost all the monthly precipitation data sets are homogeneous and considered as “useful.” The outputs of the statistical tests for the homogeneity analysis of the precipitation time series had discrepancies in some cases which are related to different sensitivities of the tests to break in the time series. It was found that the von Neumann test is more sensitive than the Bayesian and Cumulative Deviations tests in the determination of inhomogeneity in the precipitation series.  相似文献   

An analytical approach to capture zone delineation for a well near a stream with a leaky layer     

Mahdi Asadi-Aghbolaghi  Mazda Kompani-Zare 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(8):1813-1823

Abstract

An analytical solution is developed to delineate the capture zone of a pumping well in an aquifer with a regional flow perpendicular to a stream, assuming a leaky layer between the stream and the aquifer. Three different scenarios are considered for different pumping rates. At low pumping rates, the capture zone boundary will be completely contained in the aquifer. At medium pumping rates, the tip of the capture zone boundary will intrude into the leaky layer. Under these two scenarios, all the pumped water is supplied from the regional groundwater flow in the aquifer. At high pumping rates, however, the capture zone boundary intersects the stream and pumped water is supplied from both the aquifer and the stream. The two critical pumping rates which separate these three scenarios, as well as the proportion of pumped water from the stream and the aquifer, are determined for different hydraulic settings.

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor A. Koussis

Citation Asadi-Aghbolaghi, M., Rakhshandehroo, G.R., and Kompani-Zare, M., 2013. An analytical approach to capture zone delineation for a well near a stream with a leaky layer. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (8), 1813–1823.  相似文献   

Reservoir operation using system dynamics under climate change impacts: a case study of Yamchi reservoir,Iran     

Mahdi Zarghami  Mohammad Reza Fotookian  Nasim Safari  Aydin Aslanzadeh 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2016,9(16):678

This paper proposes a decision support system for Yamchi reservoir operation in semi-arid region of Iran. The paper consists of the following steps: Firstly, the potential impacts of climate change on the streamflow are predicted. The study then presents the projections of future changes in temperature and precipitation under A2 scenario using the LARS-WG downscaling model and under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 using the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) in the northwestern of Iran. To do so, a general circulation model of HadCM3 is downscaled by using the LARS-WG model. As a result, the average temperature, for the horizon 2030 (2011–2030), will increase by 0.77 °C and precipitation will decrease by 11 mm. Secondly, the downscaled variables are used as input to the artificial neural network to investigate the possible impact of climate change on the runoffs. Thirdly, the system dynamics model is employed to model different scenarios for reservoir operation using the Vensim software. System dynamics is an effective approach for understanding the behavior of complex systems. Simulation results demonstrate that the water shortage in different sectors (including agriculture, domestic, industry, and environmental users) will be enormously increased in the case of business-as-usual strategy. In this research, by providing innovative management strategies, including deficit irrigation, the vulnerability of reservoir operation is reduced. The methodology is evaluated by using different modeling tests which then motivates using the methodology for other arid/semi-arid regions.  相似文献   

Experimental investigation into rockfill dam failure initiation by overtopping     

Nasrin Javadi  Tew-Fik Mahdi 《Natural Hazards》2014,74(2):623-637

Rockfill is the most abundant building material. It is often used for water retention under different contexts, such as dams, embankments or drainage systems. Climate change may cause water levels to rise in reservoirs. As rockfill structures are not able to resist strong overtopping flow, rising water levels will constitute a danger for rockfill dam stability as well as for people living nearby. This work is aimed at the development of an empirical formula that enables calculation of the critical water level of overflow at the crest from the geometrical and physical parameters of a dam. To achieve these objectives, several experimental tests on a rockfill dam model with two different impervious cores, moraine with a sand filter and an empty wooden formwork, were conducted in a hydraulic channel at the hydro-environmental laboratory at École Polytechnique de Montréal. The purpose of these tests was to study the initiation of a riprap failure under the influence of different variables, such as rock size, riprap bank, downstream side slope and bed slope. Results showed linear trends between the critical water level and both the downstream side slope and bed slope. Also, a power trend was observed between the critical level and riprap grain size. A formula that gives the critical overtopping water level was developed from these results.  相似文献   

Deformation analysis of the Lake Urmia causeway (LUC) embankments in northwest Iran: insights from multi-sensor interferometry synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data and finite element modeling (FEM)     

Roghayeh Shamshiri  Mahdi Motagh  Marzieh Baes  Mohammad Ali Sharifi 《Journal of Geodesy》2014,88(12):1171-1185

This paper presents deformation analysis of Lake Urmia causeway (LUC) embankments in northwest Iran using observations from interferometry synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and finite element model (FEM) simulation. 58 SAR images including 10 ALOS, 30 Envisat and 18 TerraSAR-X are used to assess settlement of the embankments during 2003–2013. The interferometric dataset includes 140 differential interferograms which are processed using InSAR time series technique of small baseline subset approach. The results show a clear indication of large deformation on the embankments with peak amplitude of \(>\) 50 mm/year in 2003–2010, increasing to \(>\!\!80\)  mm/year in 2012–2013 in the line of sight (LOS) direction from ground to the satellite. 2D decomposition of InSAR observations from Envisat and ALOS satellites that overlap in the years 2007–2010 shows that the rate of the vertical settlement and horizontal motion is not uniform along the embankments; Both eastern and western embankments show significant vertical motion, while horizontal motion plays a more significant role in eastern embankment than western embankment. The InSAR results are then used to simulate deformation using FEM at two cross-sections at the distance of 4 and 9 km from the most western edge of the LUC for which detailed stratigraphy data are available. Results suggest that consolidation due to dissipation of excess pore pressure in embankments can satisfactory predict settlement of the LUC embankments. Our numerical modeling indicates that nearly half of the consolidation since the construction time of the causeway 30 years ago has been done.  相似文献   

Effect of embedment on the vertical capacity of bucket foundation in loose saturated sand: Physical modeling     

Abdolhosain Haddad  A. Barari 《Marine Georesources & Geotechnology》2013,31(3):366-374

ABSTRACT

Bucket foundations have been widely used for a variety of offshore applications. The effects of skirt length on ultimate bearing capacity of bucket foundation have been studied and reported in published scientific papers. However, few studies have addressed the behavior of bucket foundations in loose saturated sand. In this paper, a series of experimental investigations were performed to determine the bearing capacity of bucket foundation under uniaxial loading. The experiments were conducted on small-scale foundations under vertical loading in loose saturated sand. It was found that increasing the skirt length would enhance the bearing capacity of bucket foundation. As reflected in the present study, bearing strength might be enhanced more than 5 times in loose saturated sand in comparison to surface footing with equivalent diameter. Based on the experimental investigation, a depth factor was proposed to approximate bearing capacity of bucket foundations in terms of those for surface footing and embedment ratio. Moreover, the corresponding settlement of foundation at the failure load was found to increase with skirt length.  相似文献   

Automated numerical analysis tool for assessing potential bank failures during flooding     

Tew-Fik Mahdi  Tarek Merabtene 《Natural Hazards》2010,55(1):3-14

River embankments failure due to severe flooding is an extremely complex phenomena triggering permanent or temporary modification to the river morphology, river flow and sediment movement. Reliable and automatic prediction of these movements is crucial to properly identify the protective measures for residents living within the inundation flood zones. In this regard, BISHOP, a decision tool to automatically predict, at multiple river cross-sections, the slope failure circle with the minimum safety factor has been developed. In this paper, the computer tool BISHOP, named after the simplified Bishop method, is presented. Its applications have proven to be highly efficient in real case studies, where the stability of multiple slope profiles, at different river cross-sections, must be analyzed to establish spatial and temporal evolution of the river banks failures. The integration of the proposed methodology within a comprehensive flow hydrodynamic, sediment transport and landslide calculation has particularly enhanced the evaluation of the flood-risk zone during major flooding. Typical results demonstrating the effectiveness of the developed methodology are demonstrated during the analysis of the evolution of a river reach downstream of a dam a dam break scenario.  相似文献   

The inclusive and simplified forms of Bayesian interpolation for general and monotonic models using Gaussian and Generalized Beta distributions with application to Monte Carlo simulations     

Mohammadreza Rajabalinejad  Tew-Fik Mahdi 《Natural Hazards》2010,55(1):29-49

A recently developed Bayesian interpolation method (BI) and its application to safety assessment of a flood defense structure are described in this paper. We use a one-dimensional Bayesian Monte Carlo method (BMC) that has been proposed in (Rajabalinejad 2009) to develop a weighted logical dependence between neighboring points. The concept of global uncertainty is adequately explained and different uncertainty association models (UAMs) are presented for linking the local and global uncertainty. Based on the global uncertainty, a simplified approach is introduced. By applying the global uncertainty, we apply the Guassian error estimation to general models and the Generalized Beta (GB) distribution to monotonic models. Our main objective in this research is to simplify the newly developed BMC method and demonstrate that it can dramatically improve the simulation efficiency by using prior information from outcomes of the preceding simulations. We provide theory and numerical algorithms for the BI method geared to multi-dimensional problems, integrate it with a probabilistic finite element model, and apply the coupled models to the reliability assessment of a flood defense for the 17th Street Flood Wall system in New Orleans.  相似文献   

A GIS-based time-dependent seismic source modeling of Northern Iran     

Mahdi Hashemi  Ali Asghar Alesheikh  Mohammad Reza Zolfaghari 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2017,16(1):33-45

The first step in any seismic hazard study is the definition of seismogenic sources and the estimation of magnitude-frequency relationships for each source. There is as yet no standard methodology for source modeling and many researchers have worked on this topic. This study is an effort to define linear and area seismic sources for Northern Iran. The linear or fault sources are developed based on tectonic features and characteristic earthquakes while the area sources are developed based on spatial distribution of small to moderate earthquakes. Time-dependent recurrence relationships are developed for fault sources using renewal approach while time-independent frequency-magnitude relationships are proposed for area sources based on Poisson process. GIS functionalities are used in this study to introduce and incorporate spatial-temporal and geostatistical indices in delineating area seismic sources. The proposed methodology is used to model seismic sources for an area of about 500 by 400 square kilometers around Tehran. Previous researches and reports are studied to compile an earthquake/fault catalog that is as complete as possible. All events are transformed to uniform magnitude scale; duplicate events and dependent shocks are removed. Completeness and time distribution of the compiled catalog is taken into account. The proposed area and linear seismic sources in conjunction with defined recurrence relationships can be used to develop time-dependent probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of Northern Iran.  相似文献