Can marine fisheries and aquaculture meet fish demand from a growing human population in a changing climate?     

Gorka Merino  Manuel Barange  Julia L. Blanchard  James Harle  Robert Holmes  Icarus Allen  Edward H. Allison  Marie Caroline Badjeck  Nicholas K. Dulvy  Jason Holt  Simon Jennings  Christian Mullon  Lynda D. Rodwell 《Global Environmental Change》2012,22(4):795-806

Expansion in the world's human population and economic development will increase future demand for fish products. As global fisheries yield is constrained by ecosystems productivity and management effectiveness, per capita fish consumption can only be maintained or increased if aquaculture makes an increasing contribution to the volume and stability of global fish supplies. Here, we use predictions of changes in global and regional climate (according to IPCC emissions scenario A1B), marine ecosystem and fisheries production estimates from high resolution regional models, human population size estimates from United Nations prospects, fishmeal and oil price estimations, and projections of the technological development in aquaculture feed technology, to investigate the feasibility of sustaining current and increased per capita fish consumption rates in 2050. We conclude that meeting current and larger consumption rates is feasible, despite a growing population and the impacts of climate change on potential fisheries production, but only if fish resources are managed sustainably and the animal feeds industry reduces its reliance on wild fish. Ineffective fisheries management and rising fishmeal prices driven by greater demand could, however, compromise future aquaculture production and the availability of fish products.  相似文献   

Examination of climate risk using a modified uncertainty matrix framework—Applications in the water sector     

Marie Ekström  Natasha Kuruppu  Robert L. Wilby  Hayley J. Fowler  Francis H.S. Chiew  Suraje Dessai  William J. Young 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(1):115-129

Previous climate risk assessments provide important methodological insights into how to derive tractable research questions and the appropriate use of data under uncertainty, as well as identifying steps that benefit from stakeholder involvement. Here we propose the use of a framework for the systematic and objective exploration of climate risk assessments. The matrix facilitates a breakdown of information about aim and context, main results, methodological choices, stakeholder involvement, sources and characteristics of uncertainties and overall weaknesses. We then apply the matrix to three risk assessments in the water sector to explore some methodological strengths and weaknesses of approaches strongly linked to climate model outputs (top-down) versus those that originate from local knowledge of climate exposures (bottom-up), and demonstrate that closer integration with social and physical sciences is more likely to yield robust climate risk assessments.  相似文献   

Subsidence, extension and thermal history of the West African margin in Senegal     

Marie Vronique Latil Brun  Francis Lucazeau 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1988,90(2)

The subsidence of the Atlantic margin in Senegal clearly shows two rapid stages related to the formation of (1) the Central Atlantic during the early Jurassic (around 200 Ma), and (2) the Equatorial Atlantic during the Cretaceous (100 Ma). A simple model of extension is used to interpret the subsidence history and to derive the thermal evolution of this basin. The present-day gravity, bathymetry, bottom hole temperatures (BHT) in oil exploration boreholes and heat flow density are used to control the validity of the model. Two cross sections from the outcropping basement to oceanic crust are used, one in Casamance and the other one at the south to latitude of Dakar. The model can fully explain the first-order subsidence history as well as the present-day observations, and therefore can provide valuable information about the thermal evolution of sediments and about the structure of the continental crust along the margin. Comparisons with the opposite margin in North America (Blake Plateau and Carolina trough) indicate a rather different evolution (the North American margin did not undergo the second stage of rifting) and a different crustal structure (crustal thinning is less important on the African margin).  相似文献   

Numerical Modeling of Ground-Water Resource Management Options in Kuwait   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Amitabha Mukhopadhyay  Jawad Al-Sulaimi  Jean Marie Barrat 《Ground water》1994,32(6):917-928

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Volcanic hazards in the surroundings of Pico de Orizaba,eastern Mexico     

Ármann Höskuldsson  Jean Marie Cantagrel 《Natural Hazards》1994,10(3):197-219

Volcanic hazards from Pico de Orizaba volcano are presented here tor the first time. Some 1.3 million people live within the hazard zone, which in the most severe case would encompass the Mexican Gulf coast, east of the volcano. Three major cities located in the eastern part of the hazard zone account for 800 000 of this population and about 200 000 people live within a 20 km radius of the volcano. Probability calculations are presented as an attempt to quantify the hazards in the surroundings of the volcano. Such quantification can be of use in planning for future land use within the hazard zones.A zone of about 10 km radius centred on the top crater is a high hazard zone for gravity-driven flows and fallout ejecta. For large volume eruptions, the radius could be extended to 120 km to the east and 60 km to the west. The asymmetrical distribution is related to the topography of the volcano. Hazards from Pyroclastic-fall deposits are principally to the west of the volcano, since easterly winds are dominant in the area lava-flow hazards are greatest within a 10 km radius from the summit crater. Pyroclastic flow hazards are high up to 20 km from the volcano summit.In the case of reactivation of the volcano, melting of a glacier covering the summit of Pico de Orizaba having a volume equivalent to some 45 × 10⁹ litres of water, would produce lahars which would descend the flanks of the volcano.  相似文献   

Impact of agriculture on surface water in Ireland Part II. Prospects for the future     

Marie Sherwood 《Environmental Geology》1986,9(1):11-14

Agricultural activity is estimated to be responsible for only 6% (8 km) of the total length (135 km) of seriously polluted river channel, but for over 30% (294 km) of the slightly or moderately polluted length (963 km) of channel recorded to date in the state. This article examines the present sources and causes of pollution from agricultural wastes, and speculates on the likely direction of future trends. The most common sources of surface water pollution are animal manures, silage effluent, runoff from land following spreading, and fertilizers.  相似文献   

Sources of salinity in ground water from Jericho area, Jordan Valley     

Marie A  Vengosh A 《Ground water》2001,39(2):240-248

One of the major problems in the lower Jordan Valley is the increasing salinization (i.e., chloride content) of local ground water. The high levels of salinity limit the utilization of ground water for both domestic and agriculture applications. This joint collaborative study evaluates the sources and mechanisms for salinization in the Jericho area. We employ diagnostic geochemical fingerprinting methods to trace the potential sources of the salinity in (1) the deep confined subaquifer system (K2) of Lower Cenomanian age; (2) the upper subaquifer system (K1) of Upper Cenomanian and Turonian ages; and (3) the shallow aquifer system (Q) of Plio-Pleistocene ages. The chemical composition of the saline ground water from the two Cenomanian subaquifers (K1 and K2) point to a single saline source with Na/Cl approximately 0.5 and Br/Cl approximately 7 x 10(-3). This composition is similar to that of thermal hypersaline spring that are found along the western shore of the Dead Sea (e.g., En Gedi thermal spring). We suggest that the increasing salinity in both K1 and K2 subaquifers is derived from mixing with deep-seated brines that flow through the Rift fault system. The salinization rate depends on the discharge volume of the fresh meteoric water in the Cenomanian Aquifer. In contrast, the chemical composition of ground water from the Plio-Pleistocene Aquifer shows a wide range of Cl- (100-2000 mg/L), Na/Cl (0.4-1.0), Br/Cl (2-6 x 10(-3)), and SO4/Cl (0.01-0.4) ratios. These variations, together with the high SO4(2-), K+, and NO3- concentrations, suggest that the salinity in the shallow aquifer is derived from the combination of (1) upconing of deep brines as reflected by low Na/Cl and high Br/Cl ratios; (2) leaching of salts from the Lisan Formation within the Plio-Pleistocene Aquifer, as suggested by the high SO4(2-) concentrations; and (3) anthropogenic contamination of agriculture return flow and sewage effluents with distinctive high K+ (80 mg/L) and NO3- (80 mg/l) contents and low Br/Cl ratios (2 x 10(-3)). Our data demonstrates that the chemical composition of salinized ground water can be used to delineate the sources of salinity and hence to establish the conceptual model for explaining salinization processes.  相似文献   

Assessing spatial and attribute errors in large national datasets for population distribution models: a case study of Philadelphia county schools     

Lauren Patterson  Marie Urban  Aaron Myers  Budhendra Bhaduri  Eddie Bright  Phillip Coleman 《GeoJournal》2007,69(1-2):93-102

Geospatial technologies and digital data have developed and disseminated rapidly in conjunction with increasing computing efficiency and Internet availability. The ability to store and transmit large datasets has encouraged the development of national infrastructure datasets in geospatial formats. National datasets are used by numerous agencies for analysis and modeling purposes because these datasets are standardized and considered to be of acceptable accuracy for national scale applications. At Oak Ridge National Laboratory a population model has been developed that incorporates national schools data as one of the model inputs. This paper evaluates spatial and attribute inaccuracies present within two national school datasets, Tele Atlas North America and National Center of Education Statistics (NCES). Schools are an important component of the population model, because they are spatially dense clusters of vulnerable populations. It is therefore essential to validate the quality of school input data. Schools were also chosen since a validated schools dataset was produced in geospatial format for Philadelphia County; thereby enabling a comparison between a local dataset and the national datasets. Analyses found the national datasets are not standardized and incomplete, containing 76 to 90 percent of existing schools. The temporal accuracy of updating annual enrollment values resulted in 89 percent inaccuracy for 2003. Spatial rectification was required for 87 percent of NCES points, of which 58 percent of the errors were attributed to the geocoding process. Lastly, it was found that by combining the two national datasets, the resultant dataset provided a more useful and accurate solution.  相似文献   

Upcoming International Events     

Anne Marie de Grosbois 《Environmental Geology》2007,53(4):929-934

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Direct effects of Daphnia-grazing, not infochemicals, mediate a shift towards large inedible colonies of the gelatinous green alga Sphaerocystis schroeteri     

Heike Kampe  Marie König-Rinke  Jürgen Benndorf 《Limnologica》2007,37(2):137-145

The influence of Daphnia galeata×hyalina grazing and of infochemicals released by the daphnids on the colony size and growth rate of the colonial gelatinous green alga Sphaerocystis schroeteri (Chlorococcales) was investigated in laboratory batch experiments run for 96 h. High zooplankton grazing pressure was exerted by a final concentration of 100 daphnids L⁻¹ in the Daphnia treatments. Infochemicals were obtained by filtration (0.2 μm) of water from D. galeata×hyalina cultures (200 ind. L⁻¹ exposed for 24 h). This filtrate was added to the S. schroeteri cultures in two concentrations corresponding to 7 and 50 daphnids L⁻¹, respectively. The growth rate of S. schroeteri was neither affected significantly by direct Daphnia grazing nor by the presence of Daphnia infochemicals, in comparison to the control. However, the portion of inedible S. schroeteri colonies (diameter>50 μm) increased under direct grazing pressure, whereas the Daphnia infochemicals did not influence the colony size significantly. We conclude that the shift in colony size by direct zooplankton grazing denotes an effective defence mechanism against size selective feeding for colonial gelatinous green algae. This effective defence in combination with unchanged growth rates of the larger colonies (under non-limiting nutrient and light conditions) falsifies the assumption of a trade-off between minimising grazing losses and maximising growth by optimising the colony size.  相似文献