Closed‐form aftershock reliability of damage‐cumulating elastic‐perfectly‐plastic systems          下载免费PDF全文

Iunio Iervolino  Massimiliano Giorgio  Eugenio Chioccarelli 《地震工程与结构动力学》2014,43(4):613-625

Major earthquakes (i.e., mainshocks) typically trigger a sequence of lower magnitude events clustered both in time and space. Recent advances of seismic hazard analysis stochastically model aftershock occurrence (given the main event) as a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with rate that decays in time as a negative power law. Risk management in the post‐event emergency phase has to deal with this short‐term seismicity. In fact, because the structural systems of interest might have suffered some damage in the mainshock, possibly worsened by damaging aftershocks, the failure risk may be large until the intensity of the sequence reduces or the structure is repaired. At the state‐of‐the‐art, the quantitative assessment of aftershock risk is aimed at building tagging, that is, to regulate occupancy. The study, on the basis of age‐dependent stochastic processes, derived closed‐form approximations for the aftershock reliability of simple nonevolutionary elastic‐perfectly‐plastic damage‐cumulating systems, conditional on different information about the structure. Results show that, in the case hypotheses apply, the developed models may represent a basis for handy tools enabling risk‐informed tagging by stakeholders and decision makers. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Fidelity and repeatability of wave fields reconstructed from multicomponent streamer data     

Kurt Eggenberger  Philip Christie  Massimiliano Vassallo  Ali Özbek  Everhard Muyzert  Dirk‐Jan van Manen  Ed Kragh 《Geophysical Prospecting》2014,62(5):994-1008

Wave field reconstruction – the estimation of a three‐dimensional (3D) wave field representing upgoing, downgoing or the combined total pressure at an arbitrary point within a marine streamer array – is enabled by simultaneous measurements of the crossline and vertical components of particle acceleration in addition to pressure in a multicomponent marine streamer. We examine a repeated sail line of North Sea data acquired by a prototype multicomponent towed‐streamer array for both wave field reconstruction fidelity (or accuracy) and reconstruction repeatability. Data from six cables, finely sampled in‐line but spaced at 75 m crossline, are reconstructed and placed on a rectangular data grid uniformly spaced at 6.25 m in‐line and crossline. Benchmarks are generated using recorded pressure data and compared with wave fields reconstructed from pressure alone, and from combinations of pressure, crossline acceleration and vertical acceleration. We find that reconstruction using pressure and both crossline and vertical acceleration has excellent fidelity, recapturing highly aliased diffractions that are lost by interpolation of pressure‐only data. We model wave field reconstruction error as a linear function of distance from the nearest physical sensor and find, for this data set with some mismatched shot positions, that the reconstructed wave field error sensitivity to sensor mispositioning is one‐third that of the recorded wave field sensitivity. Multicomponent reconstruction is also more repeatable, outperforming single‐component reconstruction in which wave field mismatch correlates with geometry mismatch. We find that adequate repeatability may mask poor reconstruction fidelity and that aliased reconstructions will repeat if the survey geometry repeats. Although the multicomponent 3D data have only 500 m in‐line aperture, limiting the attenuation of non‐repeating multiples, the level of repeatability achieved is extremely encouraging compared to full‐aperture, pressure‐only, time‐lapse data sets at an equivalent stage of processing.  相似文献   

How does forest structure affect root reinforcement and susceptibility to shallow landslides?          下载免费PDF全文

Christine Moos  Peter Bebi  Frank Graf  Josias Mattli  Christian Rickli  Massimiliano Schwarz 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2016,41(7):951-960

Forests can decrease the risk of shallow landslides by mechanically reinforcing the soil and positively influencing its water balance. However, little is known about the effect of different forest structures on slope stability. In the study area in St Antönien, Switzerland, we applied statistical prediction models and a physically‐based model for spatial distribution of root reinforcement in order to quantify the influence of forest structure on slope stability. We designed a generalized linear regression model and a random forest model including variables describing forest structure along with terrain parameters for a set of landslide and control points facing similar slope angle and tree coverage. The root distribution measured at regular distances from seven trees in the same study area was used to calibrate a root distribution model. The root reinforcement was calculated as a function of tree dimension and distance from tree with the root bundle model (RBMw). Based on the modelled values of root reinforcement, we introduced a proxy‐variable for root reinforcement of the nearest tree using a gamma distribution. The results of the statistical analysis show that variables related to forest structure significantly influence landslide susceptibility along with terrain parameters. Significant effects were found for gap length, the distance to the nearest trees and the proxy‐variable for root reinforcement of the nearest tree. Gaps longer than 20 m critically increased the susceptibility to landslides. Root reinforcement decreased with increasing distance from trees and is smaller in landslide plots compared to control plots. Furthermore, the influence of forest structure strongly depends on geomorphological and hydrological conditions. Our results enhance the quantitative knowledge about the influence of forest structure on root reinforcement and landslide susceptibility and support existing management recommendations for protection against gravitational natural hazards. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The distal segment of Etna’s 2001 basaltic lava flow     

Massimiliano Favalli  Andrew J. L. Harris  Alessandro Fornaciai  Maria Teresa Pareschi  Francesco Mazzarini 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2010,72(1):119-127

Etna’s 2001 basaltic lava flow provided a good example of the distal flow segment between the flow front and stable channel, across which the flow evolves from channel-contained to dispersed. This zone was mapped with meter precision using LIDAR data collected during 2004 and 2005. These data, supported by field mapping, show that the flow front comprised eight lobes each 10 to 20 m high. The flow front appears to have advanced not as a single unit, but as a series of lobes moving forward one lobe at a time. Primary lobes were centered on the channel axis and marginal lobes were off-axis. The lobes advanced as breakouts of low-yield-strength lava from the flow core of the stalled flow front. Marginal lobes were abandoned and contributed to marginal levees flanking the transitional channel. For Etna’s 2001 flow, the transitional channel is 140 m wide, 700 m long and fed a 240-m-long zone of dispersed flow; the change from stable to transitional channel occurred at a major reduction in slope. Above this, the stable channel is 5.2 km long, 55 to 105 m wide and bounded by 15- to 25-m-high levees, and the stable channel is located over a previous channel. In a final stage of activity, lava ponding at the break-in-slope that marks the terminus of the stable channel put pressure on the eastern levee, causing it to fail. Liberated lava then fed a final break-out to the east. Similar flow front-features occur at other volcanoes, indicating that similar processes are characteristic of dispersed flow zones.  相似文献   

Detecting short-term evolution of Etnean scoria cones: a LIDAR-based approach   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Alessandro Fornaciai  Boris Behncke  Massimiliano Favalli  Marco Neri  Simone Tarquini  Enzo Boschi 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2010,72(10):1209-1222

The 2001 and 2002–2003 flank eruptions on Mount Etna (Italy) were characterized by intense explosive activity which led to the formation of two large monogenetic scoria cones (one from each eruption) on the upper southern flank of the volcano. Continuous monitoring of Etna, especially during flank eruptions, has provided detailed information on the growth of these cones. They differ in genesis, shape, and size. A set of high resolution (1 m) digital elevation models (DEMs) derived from light detection and ranging (LIDAR) data collected during four different surveys (2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007) has been used to map morphology and to extract the morphometric parameters of the scoria cones. By comparing LIDAR-derived DEMs with a pre-eruption (1998) 10 m DEM, the volume of the two scoria cones was calculated for the first time. Comparison of the LIDAR-derived DEMs revealed in unprecedented detail morphological changes during scoria cone degradation. In particular, the morphologically more exposed and structurally weaker 2002–2003 cone was eroded rapidly during the first few years after its emplacement mainly due to gravitational instability of slopes and wind erosion.  相似文献   

Relationship between cooling rate and cooling age of a mineral: Theory and applications to meteorites     

Jibamitra GANGULY  Massimiliano TIRONE 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2001,36(1):167-175

Abstract— We reviewed here the recent development on the mathematical formulation of closure temperature of a cooling geochronological system, which permits direct retrieval of cooling rate from cooling age when the diffusion parameters, grain size and initial temperature are known. This formulation is used to show how the cooling rate can be retrieved by comparing the core and bulk age of a mineral determined by a single decay system. The cooling rates of seven H chondrites of the metamorphic types H4, H5 and H6 were retrieved from the available data on the Pb‐Pb model ages of the phosphates and the diffusion kinetic data of Pb in apatite. The results are in excellent agreement with the metallographic cooling rates and show an inverse relation with the metamorphic grade of these chondrites. We also addressed the problem of ～90 Ma younger Sm‐Nd mineral isochron age, defined by orthopyroxene, phosphate and plagioclase, of the Morristown mesosiderite compared to the Pb‐Pb age of the Estherville mesosiderite. It is shown that this younger age could have been a consequence of resetting during cooling instead of an “impulsive heating” event, as suggested earlier.  相似文献   

Expected loss‐based alarm threshold set for earthquake early warning systems Earthquake Engng Struct. Dyn. 2007 (DOI: 10.1002/eqe.675)     

Iunio Iervolino  Massimiliano Giorgio  Gaetano Manfredi 《地震工程与结构动力学》2007,36(9):I-I

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Channel mobility drives a diverse stratigraphic architecture in the dryland Mojave River (California,USA)     

Alessandro Ielpi  Mathieu G.A. Lapôtre  Alvise Finotello  Massimiliano Ghinassi  Andrea D'Alpaos 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(8):1717-1731

The links between flood frequency and rates of channel migration are poorly defined in the ephemeral rivers typical of arid regions. Exploring these links in desert fluvial landscapes would augment our understanding of watershed biogeochemistry and river morphogenesis on early Earth (i.e. prior to the greening of landmasses). Accordingly, we analyse the Mojave River (California), one of the largest watercourses in the Great Basin of the western United States. We integrate discharge records with channel-migration rates derived from dynamic time-warping analysis and chronologically calibrated subsidence rates, thereby constraining the river's formative conditions. Our results reveal a slight downstream decrease in bankfull discharge on the Mojave River, rather than the downstream increase typically exhibited by perennial streams. Yet, the number of days per year during which the channel experiences bankfull or higher stages is roughly maintained along the river's length. Analysis of historical peak flood records suggests that the incidence of channel-formative events responds to modulation in watershed runoff due to the precipitation in the river's headwaters over decades to centuries. Our integrated analysis finally suggests that, while maintaining hydraulic geometries that are fully comparable with many other rivers worldwide, ephemeral desert rivers akin to the Mojave are capable of generating a surprisingly wide range of depositional geometries in the stratigraphic record. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献