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1.
We separate and quantify the sources of uncertainty in projections of regional (~2,500 km) precipitation changes for the twenty-first century using the CMIP3 multi-model ensemble, allowing a direct comparison with a similar analysis for regional temperature changes. For decadal means of seasonal mean precipitation, internal variability is the dominant uncertainty for predictions of the first decade everywhere, and for many regions until the third decade ahead. Model uncertainty is generally the dominant source of uncertainty for longer lead times. Scenario uncertainty is found to be small or negligible for all regions and lead times, apart from close to the poles at the end of the century. For the global mean, model uncertainty dominates at all lead times. The signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) of the precipitation projections is highest at the poles but less than 1 almost everywhere else, and is far lower than for temperature projections. In particular, the tropics have the highest S/N for temperature, but the lowest for precipitation. We also estimate a ‘potential S/N’ by assuming that model uncertainty could be reduced to zero, and show that, for regional precipitation, the gains in S/N are fairly modest, especially for predictions of the next few decades. This finding suggests that adaptation decisions will need to be made in the context of high uncertainty concerning regional changes in precipitation. The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional temperature projections is far greater. These conclusions on S/N are for the current generation of models; the real signal may be larger or smaller than the CMIP3 multi-model mean. Also note that the S/N for extreme precipitation, which is more relevant for many climate impacts, may be larger than for the seasonal mean precipitation considered here. 相似文献
2.
Scattered ground roll is a type of noise observed in land seismic data that can be particularly difficult to suppress. Typically, this type of noise cannot be removed using conventional velocity‐based filters. In this paper, we discuss a model‐driven form of seismic interferometry that allows suppression of scattered ground‐roll noise in land seismic data. The conventional cross‐correlate and stack interferometry approach results in scattered noise estimates between two receiver locations (i.e. as if one of the receivers had been replaced by a source). For noise suppression, this requires that each source we wish to attenuate the noise from is co‐located with a receiver. The model‐driven form differs, as the use of a simple model in place of one of the inputs for interferometry allows the scattered noise estimate to be made between a source and a receiver. This allows the method to be more flexible, as co‐location of sources and receivers is not required, and the method can be applied to data sets with a variety of different acquisition geometries. A simple plane‐wave model is used, allowing the method to remain relatively data driven, with weighting factors for the plane waves determined using a least‐squares solution. Using a number of both synthetic and real two‐dimensional (2D) and three‐dimensional (3D) land seismic data sets, we show that this model‐driven approach provides effective results, allowing suppression of scattered ground‐roll noise without having an adverse effect on the underlying signal. 相似文献
3.
Inga Golbeck Xin Li Frank Janssen Thorger Brüning Jacob W. Nielsen Vibeke Huess Johan Söderkvist Bjarne Büchmann Simo-Matti Siiriä Olga Vähä-Piikkiö Bruce Hackett Nils M. Kristensen Harald Engedahl Ed Blockley Alistair Sellar Priidik Lagemaa Jose Ozer Sebastien Legrand Patrik Ljungemyr Lars Axell 《Ocean Dynamics》2015,65(12):1603-1631
4.
Doklady Earth Sciences - A continuous peat bog section from a barely accessible mid-mountain area in the northwestern Baikal region has been obtained for the first time. The materials were studied... 相似文献
5.
Statistical decadal predictions for sea surface temperatures: a benchmark for dynamical GCM predictions 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Accurate decadal climate predictions could be used to inform adaptation actions to a changing climate. The skill of such predictions from initialised dynamical global climate models (GCMs) may be assessed by comparing with predictions from statistical models which are based solely on historical observations. This paper presents two benchmark statistical models for predicting both the radiatively forced trend and internal variability of annual mean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on a decadal timescale based on the gridded observation data set HadISST. For both statistical models, the trend related to radiative forcing is modelled using a linear regression of SST time series at each grid box on the time series of equivalent global mean atmospheric CO2 concentration. The residual internal variability is then modelled by (1) a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) and (2) a constructed analogue model (CA). From the verification of 46 retrospective forecasts with start years from 1960 to 2005, the correlation coefficient for anomaly forecasts using trend with AR1 is greater than 0.7 over parts of extra-tropical North Atlantic, the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. This is primarily related to the prediction of the forced trend. More importantly, both CA and AR1 give skillful predictions of the internal variability of SSTs in the subpolar gyre region over the far North Atlantic for lead time of 2–5 years, with correlation coefficients greater than 0.5. For the subpolar gyre and parts of the South Atlantic, CA is superior to AR1 for lead time of 6–9 years. These statistical forecasts are also compared with ensemble mean retrospective forecasts by DePreSys, an initialised GCM. DePreSys is found to outperform the statistical models over large parts of North Atlantic for lead times of 2–5 years and 6–9 years, however trend with AR1 is generally superior to DePreSys in the North Atlantic Current region, while trend with CA is superior to DePreSys in parts of South Atlantic for lead time of 6–9 years. These findings encourage further development of benchmark statistical decadal prediction models, and methods to combine different predictions. 相似文献
6.
Real-time multi-model decadal climate predictions 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Doug M. Smith Adam A. Scaife George J. Boer Mihaela Caian Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes Virginie Guemas Ed Hawkins Wilco Hazeleger Leon Hermanson Chun Kit Ho Masayoshi Ishii Viatcheslav Kharin Masahide Kimoto Ben Kirtman Judith Lean Daniela Matei William J. Merryfield Wolfgang A. Müller Holger Pohlmann Anthony Rosati Bert Wouters Klaus Wyser 《Climate Dynamics》2013,41(11-12):2875-2888
We present the first climate prediction of the coming decade made with multiple models, initialized with prior observations. This prediction accrues from an international activity to exchange decadal predictions in near real-time, in order to assess differences and similarities, provide a consensus view to prevent over-confidence in forecasts from any single model, and establish current collective capability. We stress that the forecast is experimental, since the skill of the multi-model system is as yet unknown. Nevertheless, the forecast systems used here are based on models that have undergone rigorous evaluation and individually have been evaluated for forecast skill. Moreover, it is important to publish forecasts to enable open evaluation, and to provide a focus on climate change in the coming decade. Initialized forecasts of the year 2011 agree well with observations, with a pattern correlation of 0.62 compared to 0.31 for uninitialized projections. In particular, the forecast correctly predicted La Niña in the Pacific, and warm conditions in the north Atlantic and USA. A similar pattern is predicted for 2012 but with a weaker La Niña. Indices of Atlantic multi-decadal variability and Pacific decadal variability show no signal beyond climatology after 2015, while temperature in the Niño3 region is predicted to warm slightly by about 0.5 °C over the coming decade. However, uncertainties are large for individual years and initialization has little impact beyond the first 4 years in most regions. Relative to uninitialized forecasts, initialized forecasts are significantly warmer in the north Atlantic sub-polar gyre and cooler in the north Pacific throughout the decade. They are also significantly cooler in the global average and over most land and ocean regions out to several years ahead. However, in the absence of volcanic eruptions, global temperature is predicted to continue to rise, with each year from 2013 onwards having a 50 % chance of exceeding the current observed record. Verification of these forecasts will provide an important opportunity to test the performance of models and our understanding and knowledge of the drivers of climate change. 相似文献
7.
Raphael Ed. Liesegang 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1914,5(4):241-246
Ohne Zusammenfassung 相似文献
8.
R. Ed. Liesegang 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1913,4(5-6):404-408
Ohne Zusammenfassung 相似文献
9.
Franz Ed. Suess 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》1927,18(2):149-154
Ohne Zusammenfassung 相似文献
10.
Parnell PE 《Marine environmental research》2003,55(4):293-311
The effects of sewage discharge on algal populations and the quality of Hawai'ian coastal waters were investigated. Two outfalls were studied. One discharges primary treated sewage and the other discharges secondary treated sewage but are otherwise similar. This enabled comparisons of the effects of these different levels of treatment on the water quality and algal productivity of receiving waters. Plumes were followed and repeatedly sampled in a time-series manner. Rhodamine dye was used as a conservative tracer to compare the dilution behavior of the plume constituents MRP, NO(3)+NO(2), NH(4), Silicate, TDP, TDN, total bacteria, PC, and PN. Rates of initial dilution ranged from two to almost three orders of magnitude, and were in reasonable agreement with engineering model predictions. Dilution of plume constituents approximated that of Rhodamine until background concentrations were reached, typically within 10 min of discharge. Chl a concentrations did not increase through time in the primary sewage plume but did increase up to 30% in the secondary sewage plume. However, rates of far-field dilution were so rapid that the increase could not have been due to algal growth. The increase was attributed to the plume mixing with a water mass whose relative chl a concentrations were greater. Rates of secondary dilution ranged from 2 to 3 orders of magnitude resulting in total dilutions of 10(5)-10(6) within 3 h of discharge. These rates of secondary dilution were much greater than model predictions. From a nutrient standpoint, secondary treatment exhibited no advantages over primary treatment because dilutions were so rapid. 相似文献