Time to act now? Assessing the costs of delaying climate measures and benefits of early action     

Michael Jakob  Gunnar Luderer  Jan Steckel  Massimo Tavoni  Stephanie Monjon 《Climatic change》2012,114(1):79-99

This paper compares the results of the three state of the art climate-energy-economy models IMACLIM-R, ReMIND-R, and WITCH to assess the costs of climate change mitigation in scenarios in which the implementation of a global climate agreement is delayed or major emitters decide to participate in the agreement at a later stage only. We find that for stabilizing atmospheric GHG concentrations at 450?ppm CO₂-only, postponing a global agreement to 2020 raises global mitigation costs by at least about half and a delay to 2030 renders ambitious climate targets infeasible to achieve. In the standard policy scenario??in which allocation of emission permits is aimed at equal per-capita levels in the year 2050??regions with above average emissions (such as the EU and the US alongside the rest of Annex-I countries) incur lower mitigation costs by taking early action, even if mitigation efforts in the rest of the world experience a delay. However, regions with low per-capita emissions which are net exporters of emission permits (such as India) can possibly benefit from higher future carbon prices resulting from a delay. We illustrate the economic mechanism behind these observations and analyze how (1) lock-in of carbon intensive infrastructure, (2) differences in global carbon prices, and (3) changes in reduction commitments resulting from delayed action influence mitigation costs.  相似文献   

Climate affects severity and altitudinal distribution of outbreaks in an eruptive bark beetle     

Lorenzo Marini  Matthew P. Ayres  Andrea Battisti  Massimo Faccoli 《Climatic change》2012,115(2):327-341

Temperature warming and the increased frequency of climatic anomalies are expected to trigger bark beetle outbreaks with potential severe consequences on forest ecosystems. We characterized the combined effects of climatic factors and density-dependent feedbacks on forest damage caused by Ips typographus (L.), one of the most destructive pests of European spruce forests, and tested whether climate modified the interannual variation in the altitudinal outbreak range of the species. We analyzed a 16-year time-series from the European Alps of timber loss in Picea abies Karsten forests due to I. typographus attacks and used a discrete population model and an information theoretic approach to compare multiple competing hypotheses. The occurrence of dry summers combined with warm temperatures appeared as the main abiotic triggers of severity of outbreaks. We also found an endogenous negative feedback with a 2-year lag suggesting a potential important role of natural enemies. Forest damage per hectare averaged 7-fold higher where spruce was planted in sites warmer than those within its historical climatic range. Dry summers, but not temperature, was related to upward shifts in the altitudinal outbreak range. Considering the potential increased susceptibility of spruce forests to insect outbreaks due to climate change, there is growing value in mitigating these effects through sustainable forest management, which includes avoiding the promotion of spruce outside its historical climatic range.  相似文献   

Gebel Kamil: The iron meteorite that formed the Kamil crater (Egypt)     

Massimo D’ORAZIO  Luigi FOLCO  Antonio ZEOLI  Carole CORDIER 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2011,46(8):1179-1196

Abstract– The 45 m in diameter Kamil impact crater was formed <5000 yr ago in the eastern Sahara, close to the southern border of modern Egypt. The original features of this structure, including thousands of fragments of the meteorite impactor, are extremely well preserved. With the exception of a single 83 kg regmaglypted individual, all specimens of Gebel Kamil (the iron meteorite that formed the Kamil crater) are explosion fragments weighing from <1 g to 34 kg. Gebel Kamil is an ungrouped Ni‐rich (about 20 wt% Ni) ataxite characterized by high Ge and Ga contents (approximately 120 μg g^?1 and approximately 50 μg g^?1, respectively) and by a very fine‐grained duplex plessite metal matrix. Accessory mineral phases in Gebel Kamil are schreibersite, troilite, daubréelite, and native copper. Meteorite fragments are cross‐cut by curvilinear shear bands formed during the explosive terrestrial impact. A systematic search around the crater revealed that meteorite fragments have a highly asymmetric distribution, with greater concentrations in the southeast sector and a broad maximum in meteorite concentration in the 125–160° N sector at about 200 m from the crater rim. The total mass of shrapnel specimens >10 g, inferred from the density map compiled in this study is 3400 kg. Field data indicate that the iron bolide approached the Earth’s crust from the northwest (305–340° N), travelling along a moderately oblique trajectory. Upon hypervelocity impact, the projectile was disrupted into thousands of fragments. Shattering was accompanied by some melting of the projectile and of the quartz‐arenite target rocks, which also suffered shock metamorphism.  相似文献   

Atmospheric Aerosol Characterization Over Naples During 2000–2003 EARLINET Project: Planetary Boundary-Layer Evolution and Layering     

Antonella Boselli  Mario Armenante  Loredana D’Avino  Massimo D’Isidoro  Gianluca Pisani  Nicola Spinelli  Xuan Wang 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2009,132(1):151-165

The evolution of the planetary boundary layer and the influence of local circulation phenomena over Naples (southern Italy, 40.838° N, 14.183° E, 118 m above sea level) have been studied by systematic lidar measurements of aerosol optical properties and vertical distributions carried out from May 2000 to August 2003, in the course of the EARLINET project. In particular, our data show the development of aerosol layers typically located in the range between 1,000 and 2,300 m, with variable thickness. The optical properties of the observed layers have been determined. In order to analyse the evolution of the planetary boundary layer, detailed observations of complete diurnal cycles have also been performed. The analysis of lidar measurements of vertical profiles of wind speed and wind direction and air mass back-trajectories allowed us to characterize the sea-breeze circulation influence on both the planetary boundary-layer evolution and the observed aerosol vertical distribution.  相似文献   

A Chinese commitment to commit: can it break the negotiation stall?     

Valentina Bosetti  Carlo Carraro  Massimo Tavoni 《Climatic change》2009,97(1-2):297-303

Preparatory talks to the next round of negotiations seem to indicate that a comprehensive agreement to mitigate climate change will not be easily attainable, despite the intentions of the US administration and the high expectations surrounding the Copenhagen meeting. One key reason is to what extent fast growing economies, and especially China, should take actions to reduce their growth of emissions. This paper argues that a turning point for international negotiations on climate change could be achieved if China were to agree on carbon obligations in the future. Results from modelling work suggest that the optimal investment behaviour is to anticipate the implementation of a climate policy by roughly 10 years, and that thus future commitments—if credible—could lead to significantly earlier steps towards carbon mitigation. If fast growing economies, and foremost China, believe in the long term objective of global stabilization of carbon concentrations, it might be economically rationale to sign on future targets, provided developed countries take on immediate action. Such a provision could be beneficial for both the developing and developed world.  相似文献   

Adakite-like volcanism of Ecuador: lower crust magmatic evolution and recycling   总被引：7，自引：2，他引：5  

Massimo Chiaradia  Othmar Müntener  Bernardo Beate  Denis Fontignie 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2009,158(5):563-588

In the Northern Andes of Ecuador, a broad Quaternary volcanic arc with significant across-arc geochemical changes sits upon continental crust consisting of accreted oceanic and continental terranes. Quaternary volcanic centers occur, from west to east, along the Western Cordillera (frontal arc), in the Inter-Andean Depression and along the Eastern Cordillera (main arc), and in the Sub-Andean Zone (back-arc). The adakite-like signatures of the frontal and main arc volcanoes have been interpreted either as the result of slab melting plus subsequent slab melt–mantle interactions or of lower crustal melting, fractional crystallization, and assimilation processes. In this paper, we present petrographic, geochemical, and isotopic (Sr, Nd, Pb) data on dominantly andesitic to dacitic volcanic rocks as well as crustal xenolith and cumulate samples from five volcanic centers (Pululagua, Pichincha, Ilalo, Chacana, Sumaco) forming a NW–SE transect at about 0° latitude and encompassing the frontal (Pululagua, Pichincha), main (Ilalo, Chacana), and back-arc (Sumaco) chains. All rocks display typical subduction-related geochemical signatures, such as Nb and Ta negative anomalies and LILE enrichment. They show a relative depletion of fluid-mobile elements and a general increase in incompatible elements from the front to the back-arc suggesting derivation from progressively lower degrees of partial melting of the mantle wedge induced by decreasing amounts of fluids released from the slab. We observe widespread petrographic evidence of interaction of primary melts with mafic xenoliths as well as with clinopyroxene- and/or amphibole-bearing cumulates and of magma mixing at all frontal and main arc volcanic centers. Within each volcanic center, rocks display correlations between evolution indices and radiogenic isotopes, although absolute variations of radiogenic isotopes are small and their values are overall rather primitive (e.g., ε_Nd = +1.5 to +6, ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr = 0.7040–0.70435). Rare earth element patterns are characterized by variably fractionated light to heavy REE (La/Yb_N = 5.7–34) and by the absence of Eu negative anomalies suggesting evolution of these rocks with limited plagioclase fractionation. We interpret the petrographic, geochemical, and isotopic data as indicating open-system evolution at all volcanic centers characterized by fractional crystallization and magma mixing processes at different lower- to mid-crustal levels as well as by assimilation of mafic lower crust and/or its partial melts. Thus, we propose that the adakite-like signatures of Ecuadorian rocks (e.g., high Sr/Y and La/Yb values) are primarily the result of lower- to mid-crustal processing of mantle-derived melts, rather than of slab melts and slab melt–mantle interactions. The isotopic signatures of the least evolved adakite-like rocks of the active and recent volcanoes are the same as those of Tertiary ”normal” calc-alkaline magmatic rocks of Ecuador suggesting that the source of the magma did not change through time. What changed was the depth of magmatic evolution, probably as a consequence of increased compression induced by the stronger coupling between the subducting and overriding plates associated with subduction of the aseismic Carnegie Ridge.  相似文献   

Monitoring the Dynamics of the Ionosphere–Plasmasphere System by Ground-Based ULF Wave Observations     

Massimo Vellante  Matthias Förster  Michael Pezzopane  Norbert Jakowski  Tie Long Zhang  Umberto Villante  Marcello De Lauretis  Bruno Zolesi  Werner Magnes 《Earth, Moon, and Planets》2009,104(1-4):25-27

Cross-spectral analysis of ULF wave measurements recorded at ground magnetometer stations closely spaced in latitude allows accurate determinations of magnetospheric field line resonance (FLR) frequencies. This is a useful tool for remote sensing temporal and spatial variations of the magnetospheric plasma mass density. The spatial configuration of the South European GeoMagnetic Array (SEGMA, 1.56 <  L <  1.89) offers the possibility to perform such studies at low latitudes allowing to monitor the dynamical coupling between the ionosphere and the inner plasmasphere. As an example of this capability we present the results of a cross-correlation analysis between FLR frequencies and solar EUV irradiance (as monitored by the 10.7-cm solar radio flux F10.7) suggesting that changes in the inner plasmasphere density follow the short-term (27-day) variations of the solar irradiance with a time delay of 1–2 days. As an additional example we present the results of a comparative analysis of FLR measurements, ionospheric vertical soundings and vertical TEC measurements during the development of a geomagnetic storm.  相似文献   

Long-term radial velocity variations in some Be stars     

Elio Antonello  Massimo Fracassini  Laura Enrica Pasinetti  Livio Pastori 《Astrophysics and Space Science》1982,83(1-2):381-390

All the radial velocities (RV) available in the literature since the beginning of the century for the Be stars EW Lac, 28 Tau, Tau, KX And, KY And, CX Dra and 88 Her, are assembled. When possible, a periodogram analysis has been performed to search for eventual periodic phenomena.The following conclusions have been drawn: EW Lac could be a spectroscopic binary with a period of about 40 years; 28 Tau shows some indications of regular long-term RV variations on the time scale of decades; a probable recurrent shell activity of Tau could be hypothesized. Some useful indications for KX and KY And are given, whereas it is not possible to draw any conclusion for CX Dra and 88 Her owing to the lack of data.  相似文献   

New Constraints on Ages of Glasses Proposed as Reference Materials for Fission-Track Dating     

Marinella A. Laurenzi  Maria Laura Balestrieri  Giulio Bigazzi  Julio C. Hadler Neto  Pedro J. Iunes  Pio Norelli  Massimo Oddone  Ana Maria Osorio Araya  José G. Viramonte 《Geostandards and Geoanalytical Research》2007,31(2):105-124

New analyses have been performed in order to enhance the data-set on the independent ages of four glasses that have been proposed as reference materials for fission-track dating. The results are as follows. Moldavite - repeated ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age determinations on samples from deposits from Bohemia and Moravia yielded an average of 14.34 ± 0.08 Ma. This datum agrees with other recent determinations and is significantly younger than the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age of 15.21 ± 0.15 Ma determined in the early 1980s. Macusanite (Peru) -four K-Ar ages ranging from 5.44 ± 0.06 to 5.72 ± 0.12 Ma have been published previously. New ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages gave an average of 5.12 ± 0.04 Ma. Plateau fission-track ages determined using the IRMM-540 certified glass and U and Th thin films for neutron fluence measurements agree better with these new ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages than the previously published ages. Roccastrada glass (Italy) - a new ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age, 2.45 ± 0.04 Ma, is consistent with previous determinations. The Quiron obsidian (Argentina) is a recently discovered glass that has been proposed as an additional reference material for its high spontaneous track density (around 100 000 cm^-2). Defects that might produce "spurious" tracks are virtually absent. An independent ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar age of 8.77 ± 0.09 Ma was determined and is recommended for this glass. We believe that these materials, which will be distributed upon request to fission-track groups, will be very useful for testing system calibrations and experimental procedures.  相似文献   

Imaging and modelling the subsurface structure of volcanic calderas with high-resolution aeromagnetic data at Vulcano (Aeolian Islands,Italy)   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Isabel Blanco-Montenegro  Riccardo De Ritis  Massimo Chiappini 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2007,69(6):643-659

In this paper, we present a magnetic model of the subsurface structure of Vulcano island based on high-resolution aeromagnetic data. Three profiles across the most intense magnetic anomalies over the Piano and Fossa calderas were selected for the magnetic modelling, which was constrained by structural and volcanological data, previous geophysical models, paleomagnetic data, and borehole stratigraphy obtained from two deep wells. The interpretation of the magnetic sources represents a significant contribution to the understanding of the Piano and Fossa calderas’ underlying structure, providing us with evidence of the lateral discontinuity between them at depth. We propose that the positive magnetic anomalies in the Piano caldera area are caused by: (a) the remnants of an early submarine volcano; (b) an outcropping dyke swarm related to the feeding system of the Primordial Vulcano phase (beneath Mt. Saraceno); and (c) the presence of a non-outcropping dyke system intruded along a NE–SW-oriented intra-caldera fault (beneath the eastern part of the Piano caldera). Offshore, to the west, the magnetic anomaly map suggests the presence of a submarine volcanic structure, not revealed by bathymetric data, which could represent the eruptive centre, the presence of which has been indirectly deduced from the outcrop of eastern-dipping lavas on the western seashore. Magnetic modelling of the Fossa caldera points to the presence of a highly magnetized cone-like body inside the Fossa cone, centred beneath the oldest crater rims. We interpret this body as a pile of tephritic lavas emplaced in an early phase of activity of the Fossa cone, suggesting that the volume of mafic lavas that erupted at the beginning of the construction of the Fossa edifice was more significant than has previously been deduced. Furthermore, the presence of a magnetized body inside the Fossa cone implies that high temperatures are contained in very limited spaces, do not affect its bulk inner structure, and are restricted to fumarolic conduits and vents. In addition, structures beneath the western and northern part of the Fossa caldera are revealed to have null or low magnetization, which can be ascribed to the presence of pyroclasts and hyaloclastites in this area as well as to a large volume of hydrothermally altered materials. This suggests that the hydrothermal system, with a very limited extension at present, affected a larger area in the past, especially beneath the western part of the caldera.  相似文献