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This contribution deals with fast Earth–Moon transfers with ballistic capture in the patched three-body model. We compute ensembles of preliminary solutions using a model that takes into account the relative inclination of the orbital planes of the primaries. The ballistic capture orbits around the Moon are obtained relying on the hyperbolic invariant structures associated to the collinear Lagrangian points of the Earth–Moon system, and the Sun–Earth system portion of the transfers are quasi-periodic orbits obtained by a genetic algorithm. The trajectories are designed to be good initial guesses to search optimal cost-efficient short-time Earth–Moon transfers with ballistic capture in more realistic models.  相似文献   
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Natural Hazards - The western Makran subduction zone is capable of producing considerable tsunami run-up heights that penetrate up to 5 km inland. In this study, we show how climate change...  相似文献   
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Statistical and deterministic methods are widely used in geographic information system based landslide susceptibility mapping. This paper compares the predictive capability of three different models, namely the Weight of Evidence, the Fuzzy Logic and SHALSTAB, for producing shallow earth slide susceptibility maps, to be included as informative layers in land use planning at a local level. The test site is an area of about 450 km2 in the northern Apennines of Italy where, in April 2004, rainfall combined with snowmelt triggered hundreds of shallow earth slides that damaged roads and other infrastructure. An inventory of the landslides triggered by the event was obtained from interpretation of aerial photos dating back to May 2004. The pre-existence of mapped landslides was then checked using earlier aerial photo coverage. All the predictive models were run on the same set of geo-environmental causal factors: soil type, soil thickness, land cover, possibility of deep drainage through the bedrock, slope angle, and upslope contributing area. Model performance was assessed using a threshold-independent approach (the ROC plot). Results show that global accuracy is as high as 0.77 for both statistical models, while it is only 0.56 for SHALSTAB. Besides the limited quality of input data over large areas, the relatively poorer performance of the deterministic model maybe also due to the simplified assumptions behind the hydrological component (steady-state slope parallel flow), which can be considered unsuitable for describing the hydrologic behavior of clay slopes, that are widespread in the study area.  相似文献   
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The morphometry of 432 glacial cirques in the Maritime Alps (Western French‐Italian Alps), studied over several years of fieldwork, was analysed with the use of a geographical information system. Some of the parameters automatically evaluated from digital elevation models required an objective and relatively new definition. In particular, cirque length was measured along a line that, from the threshold midpoint, splits the cirque into two equivalent surfaces; cirque width was automatically drawn as the longest line inscribed in the cirque and perpendicular to the length line. Significant correlations were found among the different factors and parameters analysed. In particular, cirque shape analysis showed that cirques develop allometrically in the three dimensions, i.e. more in length and width than in altitudinal range. Nevertheless cirques of the Maritime Alps have a regular, almost circular shape (mean L/W value = 1.07). The correlations among length, width and area are all very high (r2= 0.8–0.9). In terms of size, cirques show a wide range in area from 0.06 to 5.2 km2 with a mean value of 0.4 km2. The largest cirques are found on SSW‐facing slopes and at high elevations. Small cirques can be found at all altitudes but all those at high elevation are part of compound cirques at the main head valleys. Most cirques (37%) are characterized by a northern aspect; NE and SW are also frequent directions.  相似文献   
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