Declustering of Iran earthquake catalog (1983–2017) using the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model     

Nader Davoudi  Hamid Reza Tavakoli  Mehdi Zare  Abdollah Jalilian 《Acta Geophysica》2018,66(6):1359-1373

The main goal of this article is to decluster Iranian plateau seismic catalog by the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model and compare the results with some older methods. For this purpose, Iranian plateau bounded in 24°–42°N and 43°–66°E is subdivided into three major tectonic zones: (1) North of Iran (2) Zagros (3) East of Iran. The extracted earthquake catalog had a total of 6034 earthquakes (Mw?>?4) in the time span 1983–2017. The ETAS model is an accepted stochastic approach for seismic evaluation and declustering earthquake catalogs. However, this model has not yet been used to decluster the seismic catalog of Iran. Until now, traditional methods like the Gardner and Knopoff space–time window method and the Reasenberg link-based method have been used in most studies for declustering Iran earthquake catalog. Finally, the results of declustering by the ETAS model are compared with result of Gardner and Knopoff (Bull Seismol Soc Am 64(5):1363–1367, 1974), Uhrhammer (Earthq Notes 57(1):21, 1986), Gruenthal (pers. comm.) and Reasenberg (Geophys Res 90:5479–5495, 1985) declustering methods. The overall conclusion is difficult, but the results confirm the high ability of the ETAS model for declustering Iranian earthquake catalog. Use of the ETAS model is still in its early steps in Iranian seismological researches, and more parametric studies are needed.  相似文献   

Smoothed response spectra including soil-structure interaction effects     

Behnamfar  Farhad  Babaei  Amir H.  Ghandil  Mehdi 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2020,19(1):37-51

Elastic response spectra that take into account the effects of soil-structure interaction on soft soils are developed. The response spectra are calculated utilizing a 3 DOF system including deformations of the superstructure and foundation. The equations of motion of the system are solved using direct integration under normalized earthquake records. Statistical processing of the results is implemented resulting in response spectra for "short and dense buildings with low interaction", "short and dense buildings with high interaction", "tall and light buildings with low interaction" and "tall and light buildings with high interaction". The resulting response spectra are smoothed and discussed.  相似文献   

The maximum expected earthquake magnitudes in different future time intervals of six seismotectonic zones of Iran and its surroundings     

Mona Salamat  Gert Zöller  Mehdi Zare  Mortaza Amini 《Journal of Seismology》2018,22(6):1485-1498

One of the crucial components in seismic hazard analysis is the estimation of the maximum earthquake magnitude and associated uncertainty. In the present study, the uncertainty related to the maximum expected magnitude μ is determined in terms of confidence intervals for an imposed level of confidence. Previous work by Salamat et al. (Pure Appl Geophys 174:763-777, 2017) shows the divergence of the confidence interval of the maximum possible magnitude m_max for high levels of confidence in six seismotectonic zones of Iran. In this work, the maximum expected earthquake magnitude μ is calculated in a predefined finite time interval and imposed level of confidence. For this, we use a conceptual model based on a doubly truncated Gutenberg-Richter law for magnitudes with constant b-value and calculate the posterior distribution of μ for the time interval T_f in future. We assume a stationary Poisson process in time and a Gutenberg-Richter relation for magnitudes. The upper bound of the magnitude confidence interval is calculated for different time intervals of 30, 50, and 100 years and imposed levels of confidence α?=?0.5, 0.1, 0.05, and 0.01. The posterior distribution of waiting times T_f to the next earthquake with a given magnitude equal to 6.5, 7.0, and 7.5 are calculated in each zone. In order to find the influence of declustering, we use the original and declustered version of the catalog. The earthquake catalog of the territory of Iran and surroundings are subdivided into six seismotectonic zones Alborz, Azerbaijan, Central Iran, Zagros, Kopet Dagh, and Makran. We assume the maximum possible magnitude m_max?=?8.5 and calculate the upper bound of the confidence interval of μ in each zone. The results indicate that for short time intervals equal to 30 and 50 years and imposed levels of confidence 1???α?=?0.95 and 0.90, the probability distribution of μ is around μ?=?7.16???8.23 in all seismic zones.  相似文献   

Time-dependent seismic hazard analysis for the Greater Tehran and surrounding areas   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Seyed?Mostafa?Jalalalhosseini  Hamid?ZafaraniEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  Mehdi?Zare 《Journal of Seismology》2018,22(1):187-215

This study presents a time-dependent approach for seismic hazard in Tehran and surrounding areas. Hazard is evaluated by combining background seismic activity, and larger earthquakes may emanate from fault segments. Using available historical and paleoseismological data or empirical relation, the recurrence time and maximum magnitude of characteristic earthquakes for the major faults have been explored. The Brownian passage time (BPT) distribution has been used to calculate equivalent fictitious seismicity rate for major faults in the region. To include ground motion uncertainty, a logic tree and five ground motion prediction equations have been selected based on their applicability in the region. Finally, hazard maps have been presented.  相似文献   

Recent development of the earthquake strong motion-intensity catalog and intensity prediction equations for Iran     

Mehdi Zare 《Journal of Seismology》2017,21(4):591-613

This study aims to develop a new earthquake strong motion-intensity catalog as well as intensity prediction equations for Iran based on the available data. For this purpose, all the sites which had both recorded strong motion and intensity values throughout the region were first searched. Then, the data belonging to the 306 identified sites were processed, and the results were compiled as a new strong motion-intensity catalog. Based on this new catalog, two empirical equations between the values of intensity and the ground motion parameters (GMPs) for the Iranian earthquakes were calculated. At the first step, earthquake “intensity” was considered as a function of five independent GMPs including “Log (PHA),” “moment magnitude (M_W),” “distance to epicenter,” “site type,” and “duration,” and a multiple stepwise regression was calculated. Regarding the correlations between the parameters and the effectiveness coefficients of the predictors, the Log (PHA) was recognized as the most effective parameter on the earthquake “intensity,” while the parameter “site type” was removed from the equations since it was determines as the least significant variable. Then, at the second step, a simple ordinary least squares (OLS) regression was fitted only between the parameters intensity and the Log (PHA) which resulted in more over/underestimated intensity values comparing to the results of the multiple intensity-GMPs regression. However, for rapid response purposes, the simple OLS regression may be more useful comparing to the multiple regression due to its data availability and simplicity. In addition, according to 50 selected earthquakes, an empirical relation between the macroseismic intensity (I₀) and M_W was developed.  相似文献   

Intensity measures for the seismic response evaluation of buried steel pipelines under near-field pulse-like ground motions     

Kiani  Alireza  Torabi  Mehdi  Mirhosseini  S. Mohammad 《地震工程与工程振动(英文版)》2019,18(4):917-931

Ground-motion Intensity Measures (IMs) are used to quantify the strength of ground motions and evaluate the response of structures. IMs act as a link between seismic demand and seismic hazard analysis and therefore, have a key role in performance-based earthquake engineering. Many studies have been carried out on the determination of suitable IMs in terms of efficiency, sufficiency and scaling robustness. The majority of these investigations focused on ordinary structures such as buildings and bridges, and only a few were about buried pipelines. In the current study, the optimal IMs for predicting the seismic demand of continuous buried steel pipelines under near-field pulse-like ground motion records is investigated. Incremental dynamic analysis is performed using twenty ground motion records. Using the results of the regression analysis, the optimality of 23 potential IMs are studied. It is concluded that specific energy density (SED) followed by \(\sqrt {VSI[{\omega _1}(PGD + RM{S_d})]} \) are the optimal IMs based on efficiency, sufficiency and scaling robustness for seismic response evaluation of buried pipelines under near-field ground motions.

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Composition and structure of species along altitude gradient in Moghan-Sabalan rangelands,Iran     

Sahar Ghafari  Ardavan Ghorbani  Mehdi Moameri  Raoof Mostafazadeh  Mahmood Bidarlord 《山地科学学报》2018,15(6):1209-1228

This study provides a checklist of species distributed at the altitude gradient of Moghan-Sabalan rangelands in Ardabili province, Northwest Iran. We evaluated the changes in species composition, growth types of species, Raunkiaer’s life forms, geographical distribution, threat and endemicity status, and palatability of species along two altitudinal gradients in the sampling plots, which were conducted in eleven sites/habitats with 300 meters above sea level (masl) altitude intervals (from 100 to 3300 masl). We assessed the plant species composition with special reference to the gradient analysis, and identified overall 396 species, which was comprising 44 families and 194 genera. Results showed that Asteraceae family is by far the most species-rich family, followed by Poaceae, Fabaceae, Caryophyllaceae and Brassicaceae. Among the genera, Astragalus is the most diverse genus, followed by Allium, Veronica and Bromus, Galium, Silene and Ranunculus. Results indicated that the number of species increased as the altitude increased to 1200–1500 masl, but then starts to decline to 3300 masl. Family-to-genera ratio was 1:4.4, the family-tospecies ratio was 1:9, and the genera-to-species ratio was 1:2.04. Growth type of species analysis shows that the frequency of perennial plants was higher in the study area followed by annual species while the lower group was biennial species. The number of annuals showed a decreasing trend towards higher altitude. Hemicryptophytes and therophytes were the most frequent life forms constituted each with (41.9%). Hemicryptophytes showed an increasing trend with altitude, while therophytes showed a decreasing trend with altitude increase, followed by geophytes, chamaephytes, and phanerophytes. Results showed more than half of the species of the study area belonged to Iran-Turanian region and these species showed an increasing trend with altitude. In contrast, Sahara-Sindian species comprise a minor component of the spectrum, with decreasing trend with altitude. The rare and endangered species out of the surveyed taxonomic groups comprised 53 species in total which 29 of them are considered lower risk (LR), 13 data deficient (DD), 5 vulnerable (Vu) and with 3 rare (R) and identified endemic plants comprised 24 species. Some 56.6% species were identified as class III, 22.6% were class I and 20.8% were class II as the palatability variation. Moghan-Sabalan rangelands require strong conservation management policies in case of species loss and changing natural communities due to the occurrence of conversion into cropland, over-grazing and other anthropogenic effects.  相似文献   

Prediction of scour depth at piers with debris accumulation effects using linear genetic programming     

Mehdi Jamei 《Marine Georesources & Geotechnology》2020,38(4):468-479

Abstract

Exact evaluation of scour depth around piers under debris accumulation is crucial for the safe design of pier structures. Experimental studies on scouring around pier bridges with debris accumulation have been conducted to estimate the maximum scour depth using various empirical relationships. However, due to the oversimplification of a complex process, the proposed relationships have not always been able to accurately predict the pier scour depth. This research proposes linear genetic programming (LGP) approach as an extension of the genetic programming to predict the scour depth around bridge piers. Among the artificial intelligence techniques, LGP and locally weighted linear regression (LWLR) models have not been used to predict the scour depth at bridge piers. Literature experimental data were collected and used to develop the models. The performance of the LGP method was compared with gene-expression programming, LWLR, multilinear regression and empirical equations using rigorous statistical criteria. The correlation coefficient (R) and the root mean squared error (RMSE) were (R?=?0.962, RMSE =0.31) and (R?=?0.885, RMSE =0.542) for the LGP and LWLR, respectively. The results demonstrated the superiority of the LGP method for increasing the accuracy of the predicted scour depth in comparison with the other models.  相似文献   

Dynamic Positioning System Design for A Marine Vessel with Unknown Dynamics Subject to External Disturbances Including Wave Effect     

Hosseinnajad  Alireza  Loueipour  Mehdi 《中国海洋工程》2020,34(5):651-663

China Ocean Engineering - In this paper, a new control system is proposed for dynamic positioning (DP) of marine vessels with unknown dynamics and subject to external disturbances. The control...  相似文献   

Identification of Pitch Dynamics of An Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Using Sensor Fusion     

Abtahi  Seid Farhad  Alishahi  Mohammad Mehdi  Yazdi  Ehsan Azadi 《中国海洋工程》2019,33(5):563-572

This paper presents a method for identification of the hydrodynamic coefficients of the dive plane of an autonomous underwater vehicle. The proposed identification method uses the governing equations of motion to estimate the coefficients of the linear damping, added mass and inertia, cross flow drag and control. Parts of data required by the proposed identification method are not measured by the onboard instruments. Hence, an optimal fusion algorithm is devised which estimates the required data accurately with a high sampling rate. To excite the dive plane dynamics and obtain the required measurements, diving maneuvers should be performed. Hence, a reliable controller with satisfactory performance and stability is needed. A cascaded controller is designed based on the coefficients obtained using a semi-empirical method and its robustness to the uncertainties is verified by the μ-analysis method. The performance and accuracy of the identification and fusion algorithms are investigated through 6-DOF numerical simulations of a realistic autonomous underwater vehicle.  相似文献