PM2.5 co-benefits of climate change legislation part 2: California governor’s executive order S-3-05 applied to the transportation sector     

Michael J. Kleeman  Christina Zapata  John Stilley  Mark Hixson 《Climatic change》2013,117(1-2):399-414

California Governor’s Executive Order (CGEO) S-3-05 requires that California greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions be reduced to 80 % below 1990 levels by the year 2050. Meeting this target will require drastic changes in transportation technology, fuel, and behavior which will reduce criteria pollutant emissions as well as GHG emissions. The improvement to local air quality caused by the reduced criteria pollutant emissions must be calculated to fully evaluate the overall benefits and costs of CGEO S-3-05. In the present study, seven different transportation scenarios that move towards the goals of CGEO S-3-05 in the transportation sector were examined to determine how they would affect future airborne particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentrations in California: (1) hydrogen fuel cells, (2) electric vehicles, (3) high efficiency vehicles, (4) public mass transit, (5) biofuels, (6) biofuels + hybrid electric vehicles, and (7) hydrogen fuel cells + electric vehicles. The air quality implications of each scenario were evaluated using a chemical transport model applied during a wintertime stagnation episode representing future climate in California. Scenarios (6) and (7) reduced population-weighted PM_2.5 mass concentrations by ~9 % and PM_2.5 elemental carbon (EC) concentrations by ~30 % relative to base-case predictions.  相似文献   

Stream temperature sensitivity to climate warming in California’s Sierra Nevada: impacts to coldwater habitat   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Sarah E. Null  Joshua H. Viers  Michael L. Deas  Stacy K. Tanaka  Jeffrey F. Mount 《Climatic change》2013,116(1):149-170

Water temperature influences the distribution, abundance, and health of aquatic organisms in stream ecosystems, so understanding the impacts of climate warming on stream temperature will help guide management and restoration. This study assesses climate warming impacts on stream temperatures in California’s west-slope Sierra Nevada watersheds, and explores stream temperature modeling at the mesoscale. We used natural flow hydrology to isolate climate induced changes from those of water operations and land use changes. A 21 year time series of weekly streamflow estimates from WEAP21, a spatially explicit rainfall-runoff model were passed to RTEMP, an equilibrium temperature model, to estimate stream temperatures. Air temperature was uniformly increased by 2°C, 4°C, and 6°C as a sensitivity analysis to bracket the range of likely outcomes for stream temperatures. Other meteorological conditions, including precipitation, were unchanged from historical values. Raising air temperature affects precipitation partitioning into snowpack, runoff, and snowmelt in WEAP21, which change runoff volume and timing as well as stream temperatures. Overall, stream temperatures increased by an average of 1.6°C for each 2°C rise in air temperature, and increased most during spring and at middle elevations. Viable coldwater habitat shifted to higher elevations and will likely be reduced in California. Thermal heterogeneity existed within and between basins, with the high elevations of the southern Sierra Nevada and the Feather River watershed most resilient to climate warming. The regional equilibrium temperature modeling approach used here is well suited for climate change analysis because it incorporates mechanistic heat exchange, is not overly data or computationally intensive, and can highlight which watersheds are less vulnerable to climate warming. Understanding potential changes to stream temperatures from climate warming will affect how fish and wildlife are managed, and should be incorporated into modeling studies, restoration assessments, and licensing operations of hydropower facilities to best estimate future conditions and achieve desired outcomes.  相似文献   

Does temperature contain a stochastic trend: linking statistical results to physical mechanisms   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

Robert K. Kaufmann  Heikki Kauppi  Michael L. Mann  James H. Stock 《Climatic change》2013,118(3-4):729-743

By construction, the time series for radiative forcing that are used to run the 20c3m experiments, which are implemented by climate models, impart non-stationary movements (either stochastic or deterministic) to the simulated time series for global surface temperature. Here, we determine whether stochastic or deterministic trends are present in the simulated time series for global surface temperature by examining the time series for radiative forcing. Statistical tests indicate that the forcings contain a stochastic trend against the alternative hypothesis that the series are trend stationary with a one-time structural change. This result is consistent with the economic processes that impart a stochastic trend to anthropogenic emissions and the physical processes that integrate emissions in the atmosphere. Furthermore, the stochastic trend in the aggregate measure of radiative forcing also is present in the simulated time series for global surface temperature, which is consistent with the relation between these two variables that is represented by a zero dimensional energy balance model. Finally, we propose that internal weather variability imposed on the stochastic trend in radiative forcings is responsible for statistical results, which gives the impression that global surface temperature is trend stationary with a one-time structural change. We conclude that using the ideas of stochastic trends, cointegration, and error correction can generate reliable conclusions regarding the causes of changes in global surface temperature during the instrumental temperature record.  相似文献   

A note on climate change adaptation for seaports: a challenge for global ports, a challenge for global society     

Austin H. Becker  Michele Acciaro  Regina Asariotis  Edgard Cabrera  Laurent Cretegny  Philippe Crist  Miguel Esteban  Andrew Mather  Steve Messner  Susumu Naruse  Adolf K. Y. Ng  Stefan Rahmstorf  Michael Savonis  Dong-Wook Song  Vladimir Stenek  Adonis F. Velegrakis 《Climatic change》2013,120(4):683-695

With 80 % of world trade carried by sea, seaports provide crucial linkages in global supply-chains and are essential for the ability of all countries to access global markets. Seaports are likely to be affected directly and indirectly by climatic changes, with broader implications for international trade and development. Due to their coastal location, seaports are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather events associated with increasing sea levels and tropical storm activity, as illustrated by hurricane “Sandy”. In view of their strategic role as part of the globalized trading system, adapting ports in different parts of the world to the impacts of climate change is of considerable importance. Reflecting the views of a diverse group of stakeholders with expertise in climate science, engineering, economics, policy, and port management, this essay highlights the climate change challenge for ports and suggests a way forward through the adoption of some initial measures. These include both “soft” and “hard” adaptations that may be spearheaded by individual port entities, but will require collaboration and support from a broad range of public and private sector stakeholders and from society at large. In particular, the essay highlights a need to shift to more holistic planning, investment and operation.  相似文献   

A new strategy for global climate protection     

Richard B. Stewart  Michael Oppenheimer  Bryce Rudyk 《Climatic change》2013,120(1-2):1-12

This essay proposes an innovative institutional strategy for global climate protection, quite distinct from but ultimately complementary to the UNFCCC climate treaty negotiations. Our “building block” strategy relies on a variety of smaller-scale transnational cooperative arrangements, involving not only states, but also subnational jurisdictions, firms, and civil society organizations, to undertake activities whose primary goal is not climate mitigation but which will achieve greenhouse gas reductions as a byproduct. This strategy avoids the problems inherent in developing an enforceable, comprehensive treaty regime by mobilizing other incentives—including economic self-interest, energy security, cleaner air, and furtherance of international development— to motivate a range of actors to cooperate on actions that will also produce climate benefits. The strategy uses three specific models of regime formation (club, linkage, and dominant actor models) which emerge from economics, international relations, and organizational behavior, to develop a variety of transnational regimes that are generally self-enforcing and sustainable, avoiding the free rider and compliance problems endemic in collective action to provide public goods. These regimes will contribute to global climate action not only by achieving emissions reductions in the short term, but also by creating global webs of cooperation and trust, and by linking the building block regimes to the UNFCCC system through greenhouse gas monitoring and reporting systems. We argue that the building blocks regimes would thereby help secure eventual agreement on a comprehensive climate treaty.  相似文献   

The sensitivity of topoclimatic models to fine-scale microclimatic variability and the relevance for ecological studies     

Michael B. Ashcroft  John R. Gollan 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2013,114(1-2):281-289

Microclimatic loggers are increasingly used to collect data from various habitats and interpolate ecologically meaningful landscape-scale topoclimatic grids. However, it is unknown how sensitive these grids are to finer-scale variations in microclimate. We performed a sensitivity analysis using three microclimatic loggers at 27 sites for 5 months in a semi-arid region of Western Australia. We partitioned the within- and between-site variance in temperature and produced 100 different topoclimatic models using a random sensor from each site. For the coldest temperatures, we found within-site variance was negligible (3 %), and models were strong (r ²?=?0.74) and the coefficients consistent. However, for the hottest temperatures, there was substantial within-site variance (39 %), and models were weaker (r ²?=?0.27) and more sensitive. We concluded that careful site design is needed to maximise the reliability of topoclimatic grids, including using large sample sizes, ensuring there is low predictor collinearity and sampling full environmental gradients.  相似文献   

Acknowledgement     

Michael Grubb  Ray Purdy 《Climate Policy》2013,13(4)

  相似文献   

The economics of climate damages and stabilization after the Stern Review     

Michael Grubb 《Climate Policy》2013,13(5):505-508

  相似文献   

The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) Vector Magnetic Field Pipeline: Overview and Performance     

J. Todd Hoeksema  Yang Liu  Keiji Hayashi  Xudong Sun  Jesper Schou  Sebastien Couvidat  Aimee Norton  Monica Bobra  Rebecca Centeno  K. D. Leka  Graham Barnes  Michael Turmon 《Solar physics》2014,289(9):3483-3530

The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) began near-continuous full-disk solar measurements on 1 May 2010 from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). An automated processing pipeline keeps pace with observations to produce observable quantities, including the photospheric vector magnetic field, from sequences of filtergrams. The basic vector-field frame list cadence is 135 seconds, but to reduce noise the filtergrams are combined to derive data products every 720 seconds. The primary 720 s observables were released in mid-2010, including Stokes polarization parameters measured at six wavelengths, as well as intensity, Doppler velocity, and the line-of-sight magnetic field. More advanced products, including the full vector magnetic field, are now available. Automatically identified HMI Active Region Patches (HARPs) track the location and shape of magnetic regions throughout their lifetime. The vector field is computed using the Very Fast Inversion of the Stokes Vector (VFISV) code optimized for the HMI pipeline; the remaining 180^° azimuth ambiguity is resolved with the Minimum Energy (ME0) code. The Milne–Eddington inversion is performed on all full-disk HMI observations. The disambiguation, until recently run only on HARP regions, is now implemented for the full disk. Vector and scalar quantities in the patches are used to derive active region indices potentially useful for forecasting; the data maps and indices are collected in the SHARP data series, hmi.sharp_720s. Definitive SHARP processing is completed only after the region rotates off the visible disk; quick-look products are produced in near real time. Patches are provided in both CCD and heliographic coordinates. HMI provides continuous coverage of the vector field, but has modest spatial, spectral, and temporal resolution. Coupled with limitations of the analysis and interpretation techniques, effects of the orbital velocity, and instrument performance, the resulting measurements have a certain dynamic range and sensitivity and are subject to systematic errors and uncertainties that are characterized in this report.  相似文献   

In-flight calibration of the HIFI diplexers     

Michael Mueller  Willem Jellema  Bertrand Delforge  David Teyssier  Martin Eggens  Robert Huisman  Geert Keizer 《Experimental Astronomy》2014,37(2):369-379

HIFI is a heterodyne spectrometer aboard the Herschel Space Observatory, providing high-spectral-resolution capabilities. Of its seven frequency bands, four (bands 3, 4, 6, and 7) employ Martin-Puplett diplexers to combine sky signal and local oscillator at the two linear polarizations H and V, prior to feeding them into the mixers (receivers). The optical path difference in each of these 8 diplexers must be tuned to the observed frequency. The required actuator currents were determined in flight before the start of routine science observations. We here report on regular (roughly quarterly) engineering test observations to validate the repeatability of the HIFI diplexers during the routine phase of Herschel operations. We find the optical path difference to be stable to within 0.4 % of the relevant wavelength, typically at the sub-micron level. We conclude that the repeatability and precision of the diplexer tuning mechanism are so high that science data are in no way negatively affected. With the diplexer calibration established and validated, this line of reasoning can be reversed, and the diplexers can be used as relative spectrometers to measure the local-oscillator frequency, i.e., to check the spectral purity of the local oscillator across the diplexer bands. This was done from before launch out to the last months of cryogenic operations in space.  相似文献