Use of Systematic, Palaeoflood and Historical Data for the Improvement of Flood Risk Estimation. Review of Scientific Methods   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Gerardo Benito  Michel Lang  Mariano Barriendos  M. Carmen Llasat  Felix Francés  Taha Ouarda  Varyl Thorndycraft  Yehouda Enzel  Andras Bardossy  Denis Coeur  Bernard Bobée 《Natural Hazards》2004,31(3):623-643

The catastrophic floods recently occurring in Europe warn of the critical need forhydrologic data on floods over long-time scales. Palaeoflood techniques provideinformation on hydrologic variability and extreme floods over long-time intervals(100 to 10,000 yr) and may be used in combination with historical flood data (last1,000 yr) and the gauge record (last 30–50 yr). In this paper, advantages anduncertainties related to the reconstruction of palaeofloods in different geomorphologicalsettings and historical floods using different documentary sources are described.Systematic and non-systematic data can be combined in the flood frequency analysisusing different methods for the adjustment of distribution functions. Technical toolsintegrating multidisciplinary approaches (geologic, historical, hydraulic and statistical)on extreme flood risk assessment are discussed. A discussion on the potential theoreticalbases for solving the problem of dealing with non-systematic and non-stationary data ispresented. This methodology is being developed using new methodological approachesapplied to European countries as a part of a European Commission funded project (SPHERE).  相似文献   

Atmospheric Disturbances that Generate Intermittent Turbulence in Nocturnal Boundary Layers     

Jielun Sun  Donald H. Lenschow  Sean P. Burns  Robert M. Banta  Rob K. Newsom  Richard Coulter  Stephen Frasier  Turker Ince  Carmen Nappo  Ben B. Balsley  Michael Jensen  Larry Mahrt  David Miller  Brian Skelly 《Boundary-Layer Meteorology》2004,110(2):255-279

Using the unprecedented observational facilities deployed duringthe 1999 Cooperative Atmosphere-Surface Exchange Study (CASES-99),we found three distinct turbulent events on the night of 18October 1999. These events resulted from a density current,solitary wave, and internal gravity wave, respectively. Our studyfocuses on the turbulence intermittency generated by the solitarywave and internal gravity wave, and intermittent turbulenceepisodes associated with pressure change and wind direction shiftsadjacent to the ground. Both the solitary and internal gravitywaves propagated horizontally and downward. During the passage ofboth the solitary and internal gravity waves, local thermal andshear instabilities were generated as cold air was pushed abovewarm air and wind gusts reached to the ground. These thermal andshear instabilities triggered turbulent mixing events. Inaddition, strong vertical acceleration associated with thesolitary wave led to large non-hydrostatic pressure perturbationsthat were positively correlated with temperature. The directionaldifference between the propagation of the internal gravity waveand the ambient flow led to lateral rolls. These episodic studiesdemonstrate that non-local disturbances are responsible for localthermal and shear instabilities, leading to intermittentturbulence in nocturnal boundary layers. The origin of thesenon-local disturbances needs to be understood to improve mesoscalenumerical model performance.  相似文献   

U–Pb SHRIMP zircon dating of Grenvillian metamorphism in Western Sierras Pampeanas (Argentina): Correlation with the Arequipa-Antofalla craton and constraints on the extent of the Precordillera Terrane     

Cesar Casquet  Robert J. Pankhurst  C. Mark Fanning  Edgardo Baldo  Carmen Galindo  Carlos W. Rapela  Jose M. Gonzlez-Casado  Juan A. Dahlquist 《Gondwana Research》2006,9(4):524-529

Metamorphism of Grenvillian age (ca. 1.2 Ga; U–Pb zircon dating) is recognized for the first time in the Western Sierras Pampeanas (Sierra de Maz). Conditions reached granulite facies (ca. 780 °C and ca. 780 MPa). Comparing geochronological and petrological characteristics with other outcrops of Mesoproterozoic basement, particularly in the northern and central Arequipa-Antofalla craton, we suggest that these regions were part of a single continental crustal block from Mesoproterozoic times, and thus autochthonous or parautochthonous to Gondwana.  相似文献   

The Aguablanca Ni–(Cu) sulfide deposit, SW Spain: geologic and geochemical controls and the relationship with a midcrustal layered mafic complex     

Fernando Tornos  Carmen Galindo  César Casquet  Luis Rodríguez Pevida  César Martínez  Enrique Martínez  Francisco Velasco  Alexander Iriondo 《Mineralium Deposita》2006,41(8):737-769

The Aguablanca Ni–(Cu) sulfide deposit is hosted by a breccia pipe within a gabbro–diorite pluton. The deposit probably formed due to the disruption of a partially crystallized layered mafic complex at about 12–19 km depth and the subsequent emplacement of melts and breccias at shallow levels (<2 km). The ore-hosting breccias are interpreted as fragments of an ultramafic cumulate, which were transported to the near surface along with a molten sulfide melt. Phlogopite Ar–Ar ages are 341–332 Ma in the breccia pipe, and 338–334 Ma in the layered mafic complex, and are similar to recently reported U–Pb ages of the host Aguablanca Stock and other nearby calc-alkaline metaluminous intrusions (ca. 350–330 Ma). Ore deposition resulted from the combination of two critical factors, the emplacement of a layered mafic complex deep in the continental crust and the development of small dilational structures along transcrustal strike-slip faults that triggered the forceful intrusion of magmas to shallow levels. The emplacement of basaltic magmas in the lower middle crust was accompanied by major interaction with the host rocks, immiscibility of a sulfide melt, and the formation of a magma chamber with ultramafic cumulates and sulfide melt at the bottom and a vertically zoned mafic to intermediate magmas above. Dismembered bodies of mafic/ultramafic rocks thought to be parts of the complex crop out about 50 km southwest of the deposit in a tectonically uplifted block (Cortegana Igneous Complex, Aracena Massif). Reactivation of Variscan structures that merged at the depth of the mafic complex led to sequential extraction of melts, cumulates, and sulfide magma. Lithogeochemistry and Sr and Nd isotope data of the Aguablanca Stock reflect the mixing from two distinct reservoirs, i.e., an evolved siliciclastic middle-upper continental crust and a primitive tholeiitic melt. Crustal contamination in the deep magma chamber was so intense that orthopyroxene replaced olivine as the main mineral phase controlling the early fractional crystallization of the melt. Geochemical evidence includes enrichment in SiO₂ and incompatible elements, and Sr and Nd isotope compositions (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr_i 0.708–0.710; ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd_i 0.512–0.513). However, rocks of the Cortegana Igneous Complex have low initial ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and high initial ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd values suggesting contamination by lower crustal rocks. Comparison of the geochemical and geological features of igneous rocks in the Aguablanca deposit and the Cortegana Igneous Complex indicates that, although probably part of the same magmatic system, they are rather different and the rocks of the Cortegana Igneous Complex were not the direct source of the Aguablanca deposit. Crust–magma interaction was a complex process, and the generation of orebodies was controlled by local but highly variable factors. The model for the formation of the Aguablanca deposit presented in this study implies that dense sulfide melts can effectively travel long distances through the continental crust and that dilational zones within compressional belts can effectively focus such melt transport into shallow environments.Electronic supplementary material Supplementary material is available in the online version of this article at and is accessible for authorized users.  相似文献   

Strontium Isotopic Signatures of the Streams and Lakes of Taylor Valley, Southern Victoria Land, Antarctica: Chemical Weathering in a Polar Climate     

W. B. Lyons  Carmen A. Nezat  Larry V. Benson  Thomas D. Bullen  Elizabeth Y. Graham  Jesicca Kidd  Kathleen A. Welch  James M. Thomas 《Aquatic Geochemistry》2002,8(2):75-95

We have collected and analyzed a series of water samples from three closed-basin lakes (Lakes Bonney, Fryxell, and Hoare) in Taylor Valley, Antarctica, and the streams that flow into them. In all three lakes, the hypolimnetic waters have different ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios than the surface waters, with the deep water of Lakes Fryxell and Hoare being less radiogenic than the surface waters. The opposite occurs in Lake Bonney. The Lake Fryxell isotopic ratios are lower than modern-day ocean water and most of the whole-rock ratios of the surrounding geologic materials. A conceivable source of Sr to the system could be either the Cenozoic volcanic rocks that make up a small portion of the till deposited in the valley during the Last Glacial Maximum or from marble derived from the local basement rocks. The more radiogenic ratios from Lake Bonney originate from ancient salt deposits that flow into the lake from Taylor Glacier and the weathering of minerals with more radiogenic Sr isotopic ratios within the tills. The Sr isotopic data from the streams and lakes of Taylor Valley strongly support the notion documented by previous investigators that chemical weathering has been, and is currently, a major process in determining the overall aquatic chemistry of these lakes in this polar desert environment.  相似文献   

The Use of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Policymaking: Lessons from Northeast Brazil     

Maria Carmen Lemos  Timothy J. Finan  Roger W. Fox  Donald R. Nelson  Joanna Tucker 《Climatic change》2002,55(4):479-507

This article examines the use of seasonal climate forecasting in public and private efforts to mitigate the impacts of drought in Ceará, Northeast Brazil. Here, forecasts have been directed towards small scale, rainfed agriculturalists as well as state and local level policymakers in the areas of agriculture, water management, and emergency drought relief. In assessing possibilities and constraints of forecast application in Ceará, the present analysis takes into account three types of variables: (a)characteristics of the forecasts; (b) policymaking systems; and (c)institutional environments. We conclude that, on the one hand, several factors in the Ceará case have limited the effectiveness of seasonal climate forecast use. First, the current level of skill of the forecasts is inadequate for the needs of policy development and farmer decisionmaking. Second, forecast information application has been subject to distortion, misinterpretation and political manipulation. Third, focus on the forecast as a product until recently neglected to take into account end users' needs and decisionmaking behavior. On the other hand, climate forecasting has the potential to offer a dramatic opportunity for state and local level bureaucracies to embark on a path of proactive drought planning.  相似文献   

Permafrost warming along the Mo'he-Jiagedaqi section of the China-Russia crude oil pipeline     

WANG Fei  LI Guo-yu  MA Wei  MAO Yun-cheng  MU Yan-hu  SERBAN Mihaela  CAI Yong-jun 《山地科学学报》2019,(2)

The permafrost along the China-Russia Crude Oil Pipeline(CRCOP) is degrading since the pipeline operation in 2011. Heat dissipated from the pipeline, climate warming and anthropogenic activities leads to permafrost warming. The processes of permafrost warming along the CRCOP were studied based on the monitoring of air and soil temperatures, and electrical resistivity tomography(ERT) surveys. Results show that:(1) the mean annual air temperature(MAAT) in permafrost regions along the CRCOP increased with a rate of 0.21°C/10a–0.40°C/10 a during the past five decades;(2) the mean annual ground temperature(MAGT, at-15 m depth) of undisturbed permafrost increased by 0.2°C and the natural permafrost table remained unchanged due to the zero-curtain effect;(3) permafrost surrounding the uninsulated pipeline right-of-way warmed significantly compared with that in a natural site. During 2012–2017, the MAGT and the artificial permafrost table, 2 m away from the pipeline centerline, increased at rates of 0.063°C/a and 1.0 m/a. The thaw bulb developed around the pipe and exhibits a faster lateral expansion;(4) 80-mm-thick insulation could reduce the heat exchange between the pipeline and underlying permafrost and then keep the permafrost and pipe stable. The MAGT and the artificial permafrost table, 4.8 m away from the center line of the pipeline, increased by 0.3°C/a and 0.43 m/a, respectively. Due to the heat disturbance caused by warm oil, the degradation of wetland, controlled burn each autumn and climate warming, the permafrost extent reduced and warmed significantly along the CRCOP route. Field observations provide basic data to clarify the interactions between CRCOP and permafrost degradation and environmental effects in the context of climate change.  相似文献   

Morphological Variation of the Sea Silverside Odontesthes regia in Regions with Dissimilar Upwelling Intensity along the Humboldt Current System     

Deville  Diego  Sanchez  Gustavo  Barahona  Sergio  Yamashiro  Carmen  Oré-Chávez  Daniel  Bazán  Roger Quiroz  Umino  Tetsuya 《Ocean Science Journal》2020,55(1):33-48

Ocean Science Journal - We evaluated the influence of areas with dissimilar upwelling intensity along the Humboldt Current System on the morphological variation of the economically important sea...  相似文献   

Cold seep communities in the deep eastern Mediterranean Sea: composition, symbiosis and spatial distribution on mud volcanoes   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Karine Olu-Le Roy  Myriam Sibuet  Aline Fiala-Mdioni  Serge Gofas  Carmen Salas  Andr Mariotti  Jean-Paul Foucher  John Woodside 《Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers》2004,51(12):1915-1936

Two mud volcano fields were explored during the French–Dutch MEDINAUT cruise (1998) with the submersible NAUTILE, one south of Crete along the Mediteranean Ridge at about 2000 m depth (Olimpi mud field) and the other south of Turkey between 1700 and 2000 m depth (Anaximander mud field) where high methane concentrations were measured. Chemosynthetic communities were observed and sampled on six mud volcanoes and along a fault scarp. The communities were dominated by bivalves of particularly small size, belonging to families commonly found at seeps (Mytilidae, Vesicomyidae, Thyasiridae) and to Lucinidae mostly encountered in littoral sulfide-rich sediments and at the shallowest seeps. Siboglinid polychaetes including a large vestimentiferan Lamellibrachia sp. were also associated. At least four bivalve species and one siboglinid are associated with symbiotic chemoautotrophic bacteria, as evidenced by Transmission Electronic Microscopy and isotopic ratio measurements. Among the bivalves, a mytilid harbors both methanotrophic and sulfide-oxidizing bacteria. Video spatial analysis of the community distribution on three volcanoes shows that dense bivalve shell accumulations (mainly lucinids) spread over large areas, from 10% to 38% of the explored areas (2500–15000 m²) on the different volcanoes. Lamellibrachia sp. had different spatial distribution and variable density in the two mud volcano fields, apparently related with higher methane fluxes in the Anaximander volcanoes and maybe with the instability due to brines in the Olimpi area. The abundance and richness of the observed chemosynthetic fauna and the size of some of the species contrast with the poverty of the deep eastern Mediterranean. The presence of a specialized fauna, with some mollusk genera and species shared with other reduced environments of the Mediterranean, but not dominated by the large bivalves usually found at seeps, is discussed.  相似文献   

Geological risk assessment of the area surrounding Altamira Cave: A proposed Natural Risk Index and Safety Factor for protection of prehistoric caves     

Miguel A. Snchez  Alberto Foyo  Carmen Tomillo  Eneko Iriarte 《Engineering Geology》2007,94(3-4):180-200

Altamira Cave occurs in a carbonate sequence-dated as middle to upper Cenomanian, being characterized by tabular bedding. This sequence has been studied in detail and mapped in an attempt to delimit the beds in which the cave was formed. The cave forms part of a karstic complex developed in the Altamira Formation, which consists of eight stratigraphic units characterized by karstic forms and landslides as the main geomorphologic elements. The strong relationship between sinkholes and faults within the area was also revealed, with sinkholes of oval morphology aligned along the faults. Inside the cave, the subhorizontal bedding is intersected by subvertical joints, generating geometrical blocks prone to falling down. This is the main process of the present evolution of the cave in addition to the dissolution and precipitation of carbonates in local zones. We used this geological characterization as the basis for the definition of protection areas around prehistoric caves, applied in this article to the Altamira Cave. Landslides, water flow towards the cave, rock falls within cave and karstic features are the main geological risks affecting the karstic complex. Two semi-quantitative indexes were proposed, the Natural Risk Index (NRI) and Safety Factor (SF), with the main aim of determining the risk level in different zones of the study area. The information provided by geological studies as well as the results obtained using the proposed indexes allowed definition suitable protection areas around the cave.  相似文献