Objective verifications and false alarm analyses of western North Pacific tropical cyclone event forecasts by the ECMWF 32-day ensemble   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Hsiao-Chung Tsai  Russell L. Elsberry  Mary S. Jordan  Frédéric Vitart 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2013,49(4):409-420

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Short-crested wave-induced soil response in a porous seabed of infinite thickness     

J. R. C. Hsu  D. S. Jeng  C. P. Tsai 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》1993,17(8):553-576

Waves reflecting obliquely from structures establish short-crested waves which are conducive to scour of the bed adjacent to them. The pore pressures and effective stresses induced by this wave system are derived analytically for an unsaturated, anisotropic soil matrix of infinite depth in a three-dimensional domain. Verification is available by the solutions being readily reduced to the two-dimensional cases of the progressive and standing wave, for which some closed-form solutions are available. It is shown that wave obliquity is coupled with soil permeability. The effects of wave obliquity, relative water depth, soil stiffness and soil permeability on wave-induced pore pressure are discussed in detail.  相似文献   

Amino acids produced from the ultraviolet/extreme-ultraviolet irradiation of naphthalene in a H₂O+NH₃ ice mixture     

Y.-J. Chen  M. Nuevo  T.-S. Yih  W.-H. Ip  H.-S. Fung  C.-Y. Cheng  H.-R. Tsai  C.-Y. R. Wu 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2008,384(2):605-610

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Lateral cyclic response of an aluminum model pile in sand     

Jiunn-Shyang Chiou  Zhi-Wei Xu  Cheng-Chang Tsai  Jin-Hung Hwang 《Marine Georesources & Geotechnology》2018,36(5):554-563

Lateral cyclic load tests were performed on an aluminum model pile in dry sand. Two levels of loading were adopted to represent different service load conditions. The maximum number of loading cycles was 1,000. From the test results, it was found that the even though in the service load condition, the pile response was still affected by cyclic effects and a larger load level would produce more significant influence. In a global point of view, the lateral displacement and maximum moment increased with loading cycles, while the secant stiffness within a cycle decreased with cycles. The cyclic effect was more significant on the lateral displacement than on the moment. In a local point of view, cyclic loading would degrade the equivalent subgrade stiffness for the soil shallower than about seven times diameter. In addition, the secant subgrade stiffness within a cycle increased with loading cycles. Some experimental relationships of lateral pile response and loading cycles were built and compared with those in the literature.  相似文献   

Global ionosphere map constructed by using total electron content from ground-based GNSS receiver and FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC GPS occultation experiment     

Yang-Yi Sun  Jann-Yenq Liu  Ho-Fang Tsai  Andrzej Krankowski 《GPS Solutions》2017,21(4):1583-1591

Effects of rapidly changing ionospheric weather are critical in high accuracy positioning, navigation, and communication applications. A system used to construct the global total electron content (TEC) distribution for monitoring the ionospheric weather in near-real time is needed in the modern society. Here we build the TEC map named Taiwan Ionosphere Group for Education and Research (TIGER) Global Ionospheric Map (GIM) from observations of ground-based GNSS receivers and space-based FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC (F3/C) GPS radio occultation observations using the spherical harmonic expansion and Kalman filter update formula. The TIGER GIM (TGIM) will be published in near-real time of 4-h delay with a spatial resolution of 2.5° in latitude and 5° in longitude and a high temporal resolution of every 5 min. The F3/C TEC results in an improvement on the GIM of about 15.5%, especially over the ocean areas. The TGIM highly correlates with the GIMs published by other international organizations. Therefore, the routinely published TGIM in near-real time is not only for communication, positioning, and navigation applications but also for monitoring and scientific study of ionospheric weathers, such as magnetic storms and seismo-ionospheric anomalies.  相似文献   

Global morphology of ionospheric F-layer scintillations using FS3/COSMIC GPS radio occultation data   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Lung-Chih Tsai  Shin-Yi Su  Chao-Han Liu 《GPS Solutions》2017,21(3):1037-1048

We report on the FormoSat-3/Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (FS3/COSMIC) limb-viewing observations of GPS L-band scintillations since mid-2006 and propose to study global F-layer irregularity morphology. The FS3/COSMIC has generally performed more than 1000 ionospheric radio occultation (RO) observations per day. We reprocess 1-Hz amplitude data and obtain complete limb-viewing profiles of the undersampling (sampling frequency lower than Fresnel frequency) S4 scintillation index from about 80% of the RO observations. There are a few percent of FS3/COSMIC RO observations having greater than 0.09 undersampling S4max values on average. However, seven identified areas, Central Pacific Area (?20° to 20° dip latitude, 160°E–130°W), South American Area (?20° to 20° dip latitude, 100°W–30°W), African Area (?20° to 20° dip latitude, 30°W–50°E), European Area (30°–55°N, 0°–55°E), Japan Sea Area (35°–55°N, 120°–150°E), Arctic Area (>65° dip latitude), and Antarctic Area (<?65° dip latitude), have been designated to have a much higher percentage of strong limb-viewing L-band scintillations. During the years in most of the last sunspot cycle from mid-2006 to the end 2014, the scintillation climatology, namely, its variations with each identified area, season, local time, magnetic activity, and solar activity, have been documented.  相似文献   

Seven-Day Intensity and Intensity Spread Predictions in Bifurcation Situations with Guidance-On-Guidance for Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones     

Hsiao-Chung Tsai  Russell L. Elsberry 《Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences》2018,54(3):421-430

An objective technique to detect and predict intensity bifurcation situations in a five-day Weighted Analog Intensity forecast technique for the western North Pacific (WAIP) has been extended to seven days. A hierarchical cluster analysis is applied to the N analog intensities to separate them into two clusters, which are considered to represent a substantial intensity bifurcation if a threshold maximum velocity difference of 15 kt is satisfied. Two important modifications have been made to develop the bifurcation version for seven-day WAIP forecasts. First, the number of track analogs has been increased from 10 analogs to 16 analogs, which results in larger sample sizes and better performance. Second, separate intensity bias corrections are calculated for the two cluster WAIP forecasts rather than using the same 16-analog intensity bias correction. If an always perfect selection of the correct cluster WAIP forecast of each bifurcation situation is made, a substantial improvement in the intensity mean absolute errors is achieved relative to the original WAIP forecasts based on all 16 of the best analogs. These perfect-cluster selection WAIP forecasts have smaller bias errors and are more highly correlated with the verifying intensities at all forecast intervals through 168 h. Furthermore, the Probability of Detection is improved for the perfect-cluster selection and more realistic intensity spreads are specified. A simple guidance-on-guidance technique is demonstrated to assist the forecasters in selecting the correct WAIP cluster forecast in bifurcation situations.  相似文献   

Was the M<Subscript>w</Subscript> 7.5 1952 Kern County,California, earthquake induced (or triggered)?     

Susan E. Hough  Victor C. Tsai  Robert Walker  Fred Aminzadeh 《Journal of Seismology》2017,21(6):1613-1621

Several recent studies have presented evidence that significant induced earthquakes occurred in a number of oil-producing regions during the early and mid-twentieth century related to either production or wastewater injection. We consider whether the 21 July 1952 M_w 7.5 Kern County earthquake might have been induced by production in the Wheeler Ridge oil field. The mainshock, which was not preceded by any significant foreshocks, occurred 98 days after the initial production of oil in Eocene strata at depths reaching 3 km, within ~1 km of the White Wolf fault (WWF). Based on this spatial and temporal proximity, we explore a potential causal relationship between the earthquake and oil production. While production would have normally be expected to have reduced pore pressure, inhibiting failure on the WWF, we present an analytical model based on industry stratigraphic data and best estimates of parameters whereby an impermeable splay fault adjacent to the main WWF could plausibly have blocked direct pore pressure effects, allowing the poroelastic stress change associated with production to destabilize the WWF, promoting initial failure. This proof-of-concept model can also account for the 98-day delay between the onset of production and the earthquake. While the earthquake clearly released stored tectonic stress, any initial perturbation on or near a major fault system can trigger a larger rupture. Our proposed mechanism provides an explanation for why significant earthquakes are not commonly induced by production in proximity to major faults.  相似文献   

Seismic fracture evaluation of diaphragm joints in welded beam-to-box column moment connections     

Ching-Yi Tsai  Keh-Chyuan Tsai  Chao-Hsien Li  Chung-Che Wu  Ker-Chun Lin  Sheng-Jhih Jhuang 《地震工程与结构动力学》2020,49(13):1344-1362

Steel box columns are widely used in steel building structures in Taiwan due to their dual strong axes. To transfer the beam-end moment to the column, diaphragm plates of the same thickness and elevations as the beam flanges are usually welded inside the box column. The electro-slag welding (ESW) process is widely used to connect the diaphragms to the column flanges in Taiwan because of its convenience and efficiency. However, ESW may increase the hardness of the welds and heat-affected zones (HAZs), while reducing the Charpy-V notch strength in the HAZ. This situation can cause premature fracture of the diaphragm-to-column flange welds before a large plastic rotation is developed in the beam-to-box column joints. To quantify the critical eccentricity and the effectiveness of fracture prediction, this study uses fracture prediction models and finite element model (FEM) analysis to correlate the test results. In this study, two beam-to-box column connection subassembly tests are conducted with different loading protocols and ESW chamber shapes. To implement a fracture prediction model, the material parameters are established from circumferential notched tensile tests and FEM analysis. Test results indicate that the fracture instances can be predicted on the basis of the cumulative plastic deformation in the HAZs. Analytical results indicate that fracture instances and locations are sensitive to the relative locations of the ESW joints and beam flange. Tests also confirm that the possible fracture of the diaphragm-to-column flange joints can be mitigated by enlarging the chamber of the ESW joint.  相似文献   

A physical model of the high-frequency seismic signal generated by debris flows     

Maxime Farin  Victor C. Tsai  Michael P. Lamb  Kate E. Allstadt 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2019,44(13):2529-2543

We propose a physical model for the high-frequency (>1 Hz) spectral distribution of seismic power generated by debris flows. The modeled debris flow is assumed to have four regions where the impact rate and impulses are controlled by different mechanisms: the flow body, a coarser-grained snout, a snout lip where particles fall from the snout on the bed, and a dilute front composed of saltating particles. We calculate the seismic power produced by this impact model in two end-member scenarios, a thin-flow and thick-flow limit, which assume that the ratio of grain sizes to flow thicknesses are either near unity or much less than unity. The thin-flow limit is more appropriate for boulder-rich flows that are most likely to generate large seismic signals. As a flow passes a seismic station, the rise phase of the seismic amplitude is generated primarily by the snout while the decay phase is generated first by the snout and then the main flow body. The lip and saltating front generate a negligible seismic signal. When ground properties are known, seismic power depends most strongly on both particle diameter and average flow speed cubed, and also depends on length and width of the flow. The effective particle diameter for producing seismic power is substantially higher than the median grain size and close to the 73rd percentile for a realistic grain size distribution. We discuss how the model can be used to estimate effective particle diameter and average flow speed from an integrated measure of seismic power. © 2019 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2019 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.  相似文献