Top-down approach to design the relief system in a metropolitan city using UAV technology,part I: the first 48 h     

Vizvári  Béla  Golabi  Mahmoud  Nedjati  Arman  Gümüşbuğa  Ferhat  Izbirak  Gokhan 《Natural Hazards》2019,99(1):571-597

Natural Hazards - In this study, a relief system for a large metropolitan city exposed to serious earthquakes is designed and a top-down approach is applied. Afflicted people’s states and...  相似文献   

Holocene paleoclimate inferred from stable isotope (δ18O and δ13C) values in Sphagnum cellulose,Mohos peat bog,Romania     

Túri  Marianna  Hubay  Katalin  Molnár  Mihály  Braun  Mihály  László  Elemér  Futó  István  Palcsu  László 《Journal of Paleolimnology》2021,66(3):229-248

Journal of Paleolimnology - We measured stable isotopes (δ18O and δ13C) in Sphagnum cellulose that was extracted from a long peat core drilled in the ombrotrophic Mohos peat bog, Ciomadul...  相似文献   

A Time Monte Carlo method for addressing uncertainty in land-use change models     

Ahmed Mustafa  Ismaïl Saadi  Mario Cools  Jacques Teller 《International journal of geographical information science》2018,32(11):2317-2333

One of the main objectives of land-use change models is to explore future land-use patterns. Therefore, the issue of addressing uncertainty in land-use forecasting has received an increasing attention in recent years. Many current models consider uncertainty by including a randomness component in their structure. In this paper, we present a novel approach for tuning uncertainty over time, which we refer to as the Time Monte Carlo (TMC) method. The TMC uses a specific range of randomness to allocate new land uses. This range is associated with the transition probabilities from one land use to another. The range of randomness is increased over time so that the degree of uncertainty increases over time. We compare the TMC to the randomness components used in previous models, through a coupled logistic regression-cellular automata model applied for Wallonia (Belgium) as a case study. Our analysis reveals that the TMC produces results comparable with existing methods over the short-term validation period (2000–2010). Furthermore, the TMC can tune uncertainty on longer-term time horizons, which is an essential feature of our method to account for greater uncertainty in the distant future.  相似文献   

Evaluation of an automated EA-IRMS method for total carbon analysis of atmospheric aerosol at HEKAL     

István Major  Brigitta Gyökös  Marianna Túri  István Futó  Ágnes Filep  András Hoffer  Enikő Furu  A. J. Timothy Jull  Mihály Molnár 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2018,75(1):85-96

Comprehensive atmospheric studies have demonstrated that carbonaceous particles are one of the main components of atmospheric aerosols over Europe. The aim of our study was to establish an automated elemental analyser interfaced to a stable isotope mass spectrometer (EA-IRMS) method at the Hertelendi Laboratory of Environmental Studies (HEKAL), as a suitable method of quantification of total carbon mass in individual PM_2.5 aerosol samples. Total carbon (TC) mass and simultaneous stable isotopic ratios were determined for both test standard and genuine aerosol samples. Finally, the results were compared to the ones obtained independently by an alternative sealed tube combustion method developed previously at HEKAL. The TC recovery tests of standard material prepared by the sealed tube method confirmed at least a carbon recovery yield of 92% for a broad range of carbon mass (100–2000 μg). The stable isotopic results confirmed that sealed tube method is reproducible and suitable to be used as a reference to verify our new EA-IRMS method. The EA-IRMS TC measurements of genuine aerosols gave on average 3% higher carbon recovery yield, relative to the uncorrected results of the sealed tube method. The comparison of the stable isotopic results by the two methods for aerosols also showed minimal differences. Consequently, the possibility of simultaneous TC and stable isotopic analyses makes the EA-IRMS method a very attractive alternative for continuous measurement of aerosols, with an accuracy and reliability similar to other commercial devices.  相似文献   

Space-time kriging of precipitation variability in Turkey for the period 1976–2010     

Raja  Nussaïbah B.  Aydin  Olgu  Türkoğlu  Necla  Çiçek  Ihsan 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,129(1-2):293-304

The purpose of this study is to revaluate the changing spatial and temporal trends of precipitation in Turkey. Turkey is located in one of the regions at greatest risk from the potential effects of climate change. Since the 1970s, a decreasing trend in annual precipitation has been observed, in addition to an increasing number of precipitation-related natural hazards such as floods, extreme precipitation, and droughts. An understanding of the temporal and spatial characteristics of precipitation is therefore crucial to hazard management as well as planning and managing water resources, which depend heavily on precipitation. The ordinary kriging method was employed to interpolate precipitation estimates using precipitation records from 228 meteorological stations across the country for the period 1976–2010. A decreasing trend was observed across the Central Anatolian region, except for 1996–2000 which saw an increase in precipitation. However, this same period is identified as the driest year in Eastern and South Eastern Anatolia. The Eastern Black Sea region has the highest precipitation in the country; after 1996, an increase in annual precipitation in this region is observed. An overall reduction is also seen in southwest Turkey, with less variation in precipitation.

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Application of the Bryan-Cox-type ocean model to reproduce synoptic and mesoscale variability of the Irbe Strait salinity front     

Urmas Raudsepp  Jüri Elken 《Ocean Dynamics》1999,51(4):477-488

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Automation of Area Measurement of Sunspots     

Györi  Lajos 《Solar physics》1998,180(1-2):109-130

When drawing up a database for sunspots from a large collection of white-light films, a need for the automation of the process arises. The concepts used at the automation of the area measurements of sunspots are described. As an example, sunspot groups NOAA 5521 and 5528 are processed and the areas obtained are compared to the measurements published in the literature. Similar values are obtained, except umbral areas published by Steinegger et al. (1996) which are significantly larger than ours. We find that the differences may be attributed to the fact that the definition proposed by Steinegger et al. (1996) for the penumbra–umbra border of a sunspot is not equivalent to those used for the measurements of others of the umbral area.  相似文献   

Bivariate Gaussian mixture–based equivalent linearization method for stochastic seismic analysis of nonlinear structures          下载免费PDF全文

Sang‐ri Yi  Ziqi Wang  Junho Song 《地震工程与结构动力学》2018,47(3):678-696

To address challenges in stochastic seismic analysis of nonlinear structures, this paper further develops a recently proposed Gaussian mixture–based equivalent linearization method (GM‐ELM). The GM‐ELM uses a Gaussian mixture distribution model to approximate the probabilistic distribution of a nonlinear system response. Using properties of the Gaussian mixture model, GM‐ELM can decompose the non‐Gaussian response of a nonlinear system into multiple Gaussian responses of linear single–degree of freedom oscillators. With the set of the equivalent linear systems identified by GM‐ELM, response statistics as crossing rate and first‐passage probability can be computed conveniently using theories of linear random vibration analysis. However, the original version of GM‐ELM may lead to an inaccurate estimate because of the heuristic parameters of the linear system introduced to supplement insufficient information. To overcome this limitation and define unique equivalent linear systems, this paper proposes a further developed version of GM‐ELM, which uses a mixture of bivariate Gaussian densities instead of univariate models. Moreover, to facilitate the use of elastic response spectra for estimating the mean peak responses of a nonlinear structure, a new response spectrum combination rule is proposed for GM‐ELM. Two numerical examples of hysteretic structural systems are presented in this paper to illustrate the application of the bivariate GM‐ELM to nonlinear stochastic seismic analysis. The analysis results obtained by the bivariate GM‐ELM are compared with those obtained by the univariate GM‐ELM, the conventional equivalent linearization method, the tail equivalent linearization method, and Monte Carlo simulation. The supporting source code and data are available for download at https://github.com/yisangri/GitHub‐bGM‐ELM‐code.git  相似文献   

Adjustability of exposed elements by updating their capacity for resistance after a damaging event: application to an earthquake–tsunami cascade scenario     

Negulescu  Caterina  Benaïchouche  Abed  Lemoine  Anne  Le Roy  Sylvestre  Pedreros  Rodrigo 《Natural Hazards》2020,104(1):753-793

Natural Hazards - The 2011 Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami remind us once again that these types of cascade event can occur and cause considerable damage. The scientific community realizes...  相似文献   

Relative quantification of wind erosion in argan woodlands in the Souss Basin,Morocco     

Miriam Marzen  Mario Kirchhoff  Irene Marzolff  Ali Aït Hssaine  Johannes B. Ries 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(15):3808-3823

The endemic argan woodlands cover large parts of South Morocco and create a characteristic landscape with areas of sparsely vegetated and bare soil surfaces between single trees. This unique ecosystem has been under extensive agrosilvopastoral management for centuries and is now at risk of degradation caused by overgrazing and increasing scarcity and variability of rainfall. To investigate susceptibility to wind erosion, we conducted an experimental–empirical study including wind tunnel tests and a drone-generated digital elevation model and quantified wind-erodible material on five different associated surface types by means of sediment catchers. The highest emission flux was measured on freshly ploughed surfaces (1875 g m^–2 h^–1), while older ploughed areas with a re-established crust produced a much lower emission flux (795 g m^–2 h^–1). Extensive tillage may have been a sustainable practice for generations, but increasing drought and uncertainty of rainfall now lead to an acute risk of severe soil erosion and dust production. The typical crusted surfaces characterized by residual rock fragment accumulation and wash processes produced the second highest emission flux (1,354 g m^–2 h^–1). Material collected from tree-shaded areas (933 g m^–2 h^–1) was revealed to be a considerable source of organic material, possibly affecting substrate conditions positively on a larger regional scale. The lowest flux was measured on rock fragment-covered surfaces (301 g m^–2 h^–1). The data show that open argan woodland may be a considerable source for wind erosion and dust production, depending on surface characteristics strongly related to management. An adapted management must include the conservation of argan trees to offer a promising approach to prevent severe wind erosion and dust production and mitigate possible impacts of land-use change and climate change related shifts in wind and rainfall patterns. © 2020 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd  相似文献