The sea ice mass budget of the Arctic and its future change as simulated by coupled climate models     

Marika M. Holland  Mark C. Serreze  Julienne Stroeve 《Climate Dynamics》2010,34(2-3):185-200

Arctic sea ice mass budgets for the twentieth century and projected changes through the twenty-first century are assessed from 14 coupled global climate models. Large inter-model scatter in contemporary mass budgets is strongly related to variations in absorbed solar radiation, due in large part to differences in the surface albedo simulation. Over the twenty-first century, all models simulate a decrease in ice volume resulting from increased annual net melt (melt minus growth), partially compensated by reduced transport to lower latitudes. Despite this general agreement, the models vary considerably regarding the magnitude of ice volume loss and the relative roles of changing melt and growth in driving it. Projected changes in sea ice mass budgets depend in part on the initial (mid twentieth century) ice conditions; models with thicker initial ice generally exhibit larger volume losses. Pointing to the importance of evolving surface albedo and cloud properties, inter-model scatter in changing net ice melt is significantly related to changes in downwelling longwave and absorbed shortwave radiation. These factors, along with the simulated mean and spatial distribution of ice thickness, contribute to a large inter-model scatter in the projected onset of seasonally ice-free conditions.  相似文献   

1999年欧洲圣诞节风暴数值模拟分析     

Claudio Cassardo  ;Nicola Loglisci  ;Min Wei Qian  ;Silvia Ferrarese  ;Arnaldo Longhetto  ;Gianpaolo Balsamo 《气象与减灾研究》2008,31(2):6-13

对1999年圣诞期间发生在欧洲中西部的圣诞节风暴进行了分析,认为4个主要的低气压系统中的第二个给法国北部带来了强风暴雨,巴黎的Orly机场阵风速度〉47m／s;第四个低压系统沿法国西海岸产生相似的恶劣天气,并在西班牙的北部海岸及地中海沿岸国家造成了毁灭性的破坏。在法国中部风暴最剧烈的时候,最大阵风〉41m／s;在法国和德国之间的区域,达55m／s。圣诞节风暴造成欧洲国家大约140人死亡,其他损失包括树木、街道和房屋被毁,电力系统和电话中断时间长达数天,受影响的人数大约为1000万,财产损失大约为80亿美元。由于风暴的极端强度和快速发展速度,欧洲大多数国家的数值预报中心没有对这次剧烈天气提供足够的预警。为此,利用中尺度数值预报系统（RAMS）模拟圣诞节风暴,并与ECMWF分析资料以及实况观测资料进行了对比分析。结果表明,RAMS模式能够准确模拟风暴的主要特性、低气压的演变和位置移动、发展的关键时间点、风暴演化期间的平均风场;模拟的平均风场和气象观测网的观测结果相一致;模拟的风暴移动时间和主要新闻媒体的报道相吻合;模式计算的一些特定地区平均风速的时间趋势显示,在阿尔卑斯山脉地区,无论是上风区还是下风区,风暴的时间都被准确地预测;模拟的第一次风暴最低气压值较实际值偏低。  相似文献   

Simulations of the supersonic radiative jet propagation in plasmas     

X. Ribeyre  P. Nicolaï  S. Galera  V. T. Tikhonchuk 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2009,322(1-4):85-90

Supersonic plasma jets are ubiquitous in astrophysics. Our study focus on the jets emanated from Herbig-Haro (HH) objects. They have velocities of a few hundred km/s and are extending over the distances more than a parsec. Interaction of the jets with surrounding matter produces two specific structures in the jet head: the bow shock and the Mach disk. The radiative cooling of these shocks affects strongly the jet dynamics. A tool to understand the physics of these jets is the laboratory experiment. A supersonic jet interaction with surrounding plasma was studied on the PALS laser facility. A collimated high-Z plasma jet with a velocity exceeding 400 km/s was generated and propagated over a few millimeters length. Here we report on study the effect of radiative cooling on the head jet structure with a 2D radiative hydrodynamic code. The simulation results demonstrated the scalability of the experimental observations to the HH jets.  相似文献   

A statistical study of gamma-ray burst afterglows measured by the Swift Ultraviolet Optical Telescope     

S. R. Oates  M. J. Page  P. Schady  M. de Pasquale  T. S. Koch  A. A. Breeveld  P. J. Brown  M. M. Chester  S. T. Holland  E. A. Hoversten  N. P. M. Kuin  F. E. Marshall  P. W. A. Roming  M. Still  D. E. Vanden Berk  S. Zane  J. A. Nousek 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,395(1):490-503

We present the first statistical analysis of 27 Ultraviolet Optical Telescope (UVOT) optical/ultraviolet light curves of gamma-ray burst (GRB) afterglows. We have found, through analysis of the light curves in the observer's frame, that a significant fraction rise in the first 500 s after the GRB trigger, all light curves decay after 500 s, typically as a power law with a relatively narrow distribution of decay indices, and the brightest optical afterglows tend to decay the quickest. We find that the rise could be either produced physically by the start of the forward shock, when the jet begins to plough into the external medium, or geometrically where an off-axis observer sees a rising light curve as an increasing amount of emission enters the observers line of sight, which occurs as the jet slows. We find that at 99.8 per cent confidence, there is a correlation, in the observed frame, between the apparent magnitude of the light curves at 400 s and the rate of decay after 500 s. However, in the rest frame, a Spearman rank test shows only a weak correlation of low statistical significance between luminosity and decay rate. A correlation should be expected if the afterglows were produced by off-axis jets, suggesting that the jet is viewed from within the half-opening angle θ or within a core of a uniform energy density  θ_c  . We also produced logarithmic luminosity distributions for three rest-frame epochs. We find no evidence for bimodality in any of the distributions. Finally, we compare our sample of UVOT light curves with the X-ray Telescope (XRT) light-curve canonical model. The range in decay indices seen in UVOT light curves at any epoch is most similar to the range in decay of the shallow decay segment of the XRT canonical model. However, in the XRT canonical model, there is no indication of the rising behaviour observed in the UVOT light curves.  相似文献   

Jet breaks at the end of the slow decline phase of Swift GRB light curves     

M. De Pasquale  P. Evans  S. Oates  M. Page  S. Zane  P. Schady  A. Breeveld  S. Holland  P. Kuin  M. Still  P. Roming  P. Ward 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,392(1):153-169

The Swift mission has discovered an intriguing feature of gamma-ray burst (GRBs) afterglows, a phase of shallow decline of the flux in the X-ray and optical light curves. This behaviour is typically attributed to energy injection into the burst ejecta. At some point this phase ends, resulting in a break in the light curve, which is commonly interpreted as the cessation of the energy injection. In a few cases, however, while breaks in the X-ray light curve are observed, optical emission continues its slow flux decline. This behaviour suggests a more complex scenario. In this paper, we present a model that invokes a double component outflow, in which narrowly collimated ejecta are responsible for the X-ray emission while a broad outflow is responsible for the optical emission. The narrow component can produce a jet break in the X-ray light curve at relatively early times, while the optical emission does not break due to its lower degree of collimation. In our model both components are subject to energy injection for the whole duration of the follow-up observations. We apply this model to GRBs with chromatic breaks, and we show how it might change the interpretation of the GRBs canonical light curve. We also study our model from a theoretical point of view, investigating the possible configurations of frequencies and the values of GRB physical parameters allowed in our model.  相似文献   

The unusual X-ray light curve of GRB 080307: the onset of the afterglow?     

K. L. Page  R. Willingale  P. T. O'Brien  N. R. Tanvir  J. P. Osborne  B. Zhang  S. T. Holland  A. J. Levan  A. Melandri  R. L. C. Starling  D. Bersier  D. N. Burrows  J. E. Geach  P. Maxted 《Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society》2009,395(1):328-334

Swift -detected GRB 080307 showed an unusual smooth rise in its X-ray light curve around 100 s after the burst, at the start of which the emission briefly softened. This 'hump' has a longer duration than is normal for a flare at early times and does not demonstrate a typical flare profile. Using a two-component power-law-to-exponential model, the rising emission can be modelled as the onset of the afterglow, something which is very rarely seen in Swift -X-ray light curves. We cannot, however, rule out that the hump is a particularly slow early-time flare, or that it is caused by upscattered reverse shock electrons.  相似文献   

Collisional modification of the acapulcoite/lodranite parent body revealed by the iodine‐xenon system in lodranites     

S. A. Crowther  J. A. Whitby  A. Busfield  G. Holland  H. Busemann  J. D. Gilmour 《Meteoritics & planetary science》2009,44(8):1151-1159

Abstract— The I‐Xe system of three lodranites has been investigated. Samples of Gibson yielded no isochrons, and late model ages are attributed to late addition of iodine. Two metal and one silicate separate from the transitional lodranite Graves Nunataks (GRA) 95209 gave ages that are consistent with each other and with the literature I‐Xe age of Acapulco feldspar. These yield a mean closure age 4.19 ± 0.53 Ma after the Shallowater enstatite reference age (4562.3 ± 0.4 Ma). Such identical I‐Xe ages from distinct phases imply that the parent material underwent a period of rapid cooling, the absolute age of this event being 4558.1 ± 0.7 Ma. Such rapid cooling indicates an increase in the rate at which heat could be conducted away, requiring a significant modification of the parent body. We suggest the parent body was modified by an impact at or close to the time recorded by the I‐Xe system. An age of 10.4 ± 2.3 Ma after Shallowater has been determined for one whole‐rock sample of Lewis Cliff (LEW) 88280. Since the release pattern is similar to that of GRA 95209 this hints that the larger grain size of this sample may reflect slower cooling due to deeper post impact burial.  相似文献   

An algorithm to resolve γ-rays from charged cosmic rays with DAMPE     

Zun-Lei Xu  Kai-Kai Duan  Zhao-Qiang Shen  Shi-Jun Lei  Tie-Kuang Dong  Fabio Gargano  Simone Garrappa  Dong-Ya Guo  Wei Jiang  Xiang Li  Yun-Feng Liang  Mario Nicola Mazziotta  Maria Fernanda Munoz Salinas  Meng Su  Valerio Vagelli  Qiang Yuan  Chuan Yue  Jing-Jing Zang  Ya-Peng Zhang  Yun-Long Zhang  Stephan Zimmer 《天文和天体物理学研究(英文版)》2018,(3)

The DArk Matter Particle Explorer(DAMPE),also known as Wukong in China,which was launched on 2015 December 17,is a new high energy cosmic ray and γ-ray satellite-borne observatory.One of the main scientific goals of DAMPE is to observe Ge V-Te V high energy γ-rays with accurate energy,angular and time resolution,to indirectly search for dark matter particles and for the study of high energy astrophysics. Due to the comparatively higher fluxes of charged cosmic rays with respect to γ-rays,it is challenging to identify γ-rays with sufficiently high efficiency,minimizing the amount of charged cosmic ray contamination. In this work we present a method to identify γ-rays in DAMPE data based on Monte Carlo simulations,using the powerful electromagnetic/hadronic shower discrimination provided by the calorimeter and the veto detection of charged particles provided by the plastic scintillation detector. Monte Carlo simulations show that after this selection the number of electrons and protons that contaminate the selected γ-ray events at～10 Ge V amounts to less than 1% of the selected sample.Finally,we use flight data to verify the effectiveness of the method by highlighting known γ-ray sources in the sky and by reconstructing preliminary light curves of the Geminga pulsar.  相似文献   

A multi‐storage groundwater concept for the SWAT model to emphasize nonlinear groundwater dynamics in lowland catchments          下载免费PDF全文

Matthias Pfannerstill  Björn Guse  Nicola Fohrer 《水文研究》2014,28(22):5599-5612

Hydrological models are useful tools to analyze present and future conditions of water quantity and quality. The integrated modelling of water and nutrients needs an adequate representation of the different discharge components. In common with many lowlands, groundwater contribution to the discharge in the North German lowlands is a key factor for a reasonable representation of the water balance, especially in low flow periods. Several studies revealed that the widely used Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model performs poorly for low flow periods. This paper deals with the extension of the groundwater module of the SWAT model to enhance low flow representation. The current two‐storage concept of SWAT was further developed to a three‐storage concept. This was realized due to modification of the groundwater module by splitting the active groundwater storage into a fast and a slow contributing aquifer. The results of this study show that the groundwater module with three storages leads to a good prediction of the overall discharge especially for the recession limbs and the low flow periods. The improved performance is reflected in the signature measures for the mid‐segment (percent bias ?2.4% vs ?15.9%) and the low segment (percent bias 14.8% vs 46.8%) of the flow duration curve. The three‐storage groundwater module is more process oriented than the original version due to the introduction of a fast and a slow groundwater flow component. The three‐storage version includes a modular approach, because groundwater storages can be activated or deactivated independently for subbasin and hydrological response unit level. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

The Foraminifera of the Thanet beds of pegwell bay: With Notes on other Microscopic Organisms; A Description of the Section at Pegwell Bay; and Remarks on the Correlation of the Thanet Beds     

Henry W. Burrows  Richard Holland 《Proceedings of the Geologists' Association. Geologists' Association》1897,15(1):19-32

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