Quantitative hazard and risk assessment for slow-moving landslides from Persistent Scatterer Interferometry   总被引：6，自引：4，他引：2  

Ping Lu  Filippo Catani  Veronica Tofani  Nicola Casagli 《Landslides》2014,11(4):685-696

Preparation of reliable landslide hazard and risk maps is crucial for hazard mitigation and risk management. In recent years, various approaches have been developed for quantitative assessment of landslide hazard and risk. However, possibly due to the lack of new data, very few of these hazard and risk maps were updated after their first generation. In this study, aiming at an ongoing assessment, a novel approach for updating landslide hazard and risk maps based on Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) is introduced. The study was performed in the Arno River basin (central Italy) where most mass movements are slow-moving landslides which are properly within the detection precision of PSI point targets. In the Arno River basin, the preliminary hazard and risk assessment was performed by Catani et al. (Landslides 2:329–342, 2005) using datasets prior to 2002. In this study, the previous hazard and risk maps were updated using PSI point targets processed from 4 years (2003–2006) of RADARSAT images. Landslide hazard and risk maps for five temporal predictions of 2, 5, 10, 20 and 30 years were updated with the exposure of losses estimated in Euro (€). In particular, the result shows that in 30 years a potential loss of approximate €3.22 billion is expected due to these slow-moving landslides detected by PSI point targets.  相似文献   

On the prediction of the Toce alpine basin floods with distributed hydrologic models     

Nicola Montaldo  Giovanni Ravazzani  Marco Mancini 《水文研究》2007,21(5):608-621

With the objective of improving flood predictions, in recent years sophisticated continuous hydrologic models that include complex land‐surface sub‐models have been developed. This has produced a significant increase in parameterization; consequently, applications of distributed models to ungauged basins lacking specific data from field campaigns may become redundant. The objective of this paper is to produce a parsimonious and robust distributed hydrologic model for flood predictions in Italian alpine basins. Application is made to the Toce basin (area 1534 km²). The Toce basin was a case study of the RAPHAEL European Union research project, during which a comprehensive set of hydrologic, meteorological and physiographic data were collected, including the hydrologic analysis of the 1996–1997 period. Two major floods occurred during this period. We compare the FEST04 event model (which computes rainfall abstraction and antecedent soil moisture conditions through the simple Soil Conservation Service curve number method) and two continuous hydrologic models, SDM and TDM (which differ in soil water balance scheme, and base flow and runoff generation computations). The simple FEST04 event model demonstrated good performance in the prediction of the 1997 flood, but shows limits in the prediction of the long and moderate 1996 flood. More robust predictions are obtained with the parsimonious SDM continuous hydrologic model, which uses a simple one‐layer soil water balance model and an infiltration excess mechanism for runoff generation, and demonstrates good performance in both long‐term runoff modelling and flood predictions. Instead, the use of a more sophisticated continuous hydrologic model, the TDM, that simulates soil moisture dynamics in two layers of soil, and computes runoff and base flow using some TOPMODEL concepts, does not seem to be advantageous for this alpine basin. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Towards a climate event stratigraphy for New Zealand over the past 30 000 years (NZ‐INTIMATE project)     

Brent V. Alloway  David J. Lowe  David J. A. Barrell  Rewi M. Newnham  Peter C. Almond  Paul C. Augustinus  Nancy A. N. Bertler  Lionel Carter  Nicola J. Litchfield  Matt S. McGlone  Jamie Shulmeister  Marcus J. Vandergoes  Paul W. Williams  NZ‐INTIMATE members 《第四纪科学杂志》2007,22(1):9-35

It is widely recognised that the acquisition of high‐resolution palaeoclimate records from southern mid‐latitude sites is essential for establishing a coherent picture of inter‐hemispheric climate change and for better understanding of the role of Antarctic climate dynamics in the global climate system. New Zealand is considered to be a sensitive monitor of climate change because it is one of a few sizeable landmasses in the Southern Hemisphere westerly circulation zone, a critical transition zone between subtropical and Antarctic influences. New Zealand has mountainous axial ranges that amplify the climate signals and, consequently, the environmental gradients are highly sensitive to subtle changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. Since 1995, INTIMATE has, through a series of international workshops, sought ways to improve procedures for establishing the precise ages of climate events, and to correlate them with high precision, for the last 30 000 calendar years. The NZ‐INTIMATE project commenced in late 2003, and has involved virtually the entire New Zealand palaeoclimate community. Its aim is to develop an event stratigraphy for the New Zealand region over the past 30 000 years, and to reconcile these events against the established climatostratigraphy of the last glacial cycle which has largely been developed from Northern Hemisphere records (e.g. Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), Termination I, Younger Dryas). An initial outcome of NZ‐INTIMATE has been the identification of a series of well‐dated, high‐resolution onshore and offshore proxy records from a variety of latitudes and elevations on a common calendar timescale from 30 000 cal. yr BP to the present day. High‐resolution records for the last glacial coldest period (LGCP) (including the LGM sensu stricto) and last glacial–interglacial transition (LGIT) from Auckland maars, Kaipo and Otamangakau wetlands on eastern and central North Island, marine core MD97‐2121 east of southern North Island, speleothems on northwest South Island, Okarito wetland on southwestern South Island, are presented. Discontinuous (fragmentary) records comprising compilations of glacial sequences, fluvial sequences, loess accumulation, and aeolian quartz accumulation in an andesitic terrain are described. Comparisons with ice‐core records from Antarctica (EPICA Dome C) and Greenland (GISP2) are discussed. A major advantage immediately evident from these records apart from the speleothem record, is that they are linked precisely by one or more tephra layers. Based on these New Zealand terrestrial and marine records, a reasonably coherent, regionally applicable, sequence of climatically linked stratigraphic events over the past 30 000 cal. yr is emerging. Three major climate events are recognised: (1) LGCP beginning at ca. 28 000 cal. yr BP, ending at Termination I, ca. 18 000 cal. yr BP, and including a warmer and more variable phase between ca. 27 000 and 21 000 cal. yr BP, (2) LGIT between ca. 18 000 and 11 600 cal. yr BP, including a Lateglacial warm period from ca. 14 800 to 13 500 cal. yr BP and a Lateglacial climate reversal between ca. 13 500 and 11 600 cal. yr BP, and (3) Holocene interglacial conditions, with two phases of greatest warmth between ca. 11 600 and 10 800 cal. yr BP and from ca. 6 800 to 6 500 cal. yr BP. Some key boundaries coincide with volcanic tephras. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Development of the Global Earthquake Model’s neotectonic fault database   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Annemarie Christophersen  Nicola Litchfield  Kelvin Berryman  Richard Thomas  Roberto Basili  Laura Wallace  William Ries  Gavin P. Hayes  Kathleen M. Haller  Toshikazu Yoshioka  Richard D. Koehler  Dan Clark  Monica Wolfson-Schwehr  Margaret S. Boettcher  Pilar Villamor  Nick Horspool  Teraphan Ornthammarath  Ramon Zuñiga  Robert M. Langridge  Mark W. Stirling  Tatiana Goded  Carlos Costa  Robert Yeats 《Natural Hazards》2015,79(1):111-135

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Analysis of climatic trends in data from the agrometeorological station of Bologna-Cadriano, Italy (1952–2007)     

Philipp Matzneller  Francesca Ventura  Nicola Gaspari  Paola Rossi Pisa 《Climatic change》2010,100(3-4):717-731

Agriculture is highly exposed to climate change, as farming activities directly depend on climatic conditions. Knowledge of the extent of such change and of related phenomena will help to answer the questions posed by society about adaptation strategies. The global situation is well described by the Fourth IPCC assessment report (IPCC 2007), but local studies are important to understand the impact and the priorities to adopt in adaptation strategies. In this study a historical set of meteorological data, collected during the period 1952–2007 at the University of Bologna (Italy) agrometeorological station, was analysed. Several indexes, such as Frost Severity Index, number of hot days, number of rainy days, etc., were calculated, and their trends in time were analysed. The results show a scenario of increasing temperatures and evapotranspiration, a decrease in rainy days and a deepening of the watertable. The effect of these changes on agriculture will be a decrease in water availability, an increase in heat stress in plants and an increase in drought risk.  相似文献   

1999年欧洲圣诞节风暴数值模拟分析     

Claudio Cassardo  ;Nicola Loglisci  ;Min Wei Qian  ;Silvia Ferrarese  ;Arnaldo Longhetto  ;Gianpaolo Balsamo 《气象与减灾研究》2008,31(2):6-13

对1999年圣诞期间发生在欧洲中西部的圣诞节风暴进行了分析,认为4个主要的低气压系统中的第二个给法国北部带来了强风暴雨,巴黎的Orly机场阵风速度〉47m／s;第四个低压系统沿法国西海岸产生相似的恶劣天气,并在西班牙的北部海岸及地中海沿岸国家造成了毁灭性的破坏。在法国中部风暴最剧烈的时候,最大阵风〉41m／s;在法国和德国之间的区域,达55m／s。圣诞节风暴造成欧洲国家大约140人死亡,其他损失包括树木、街道和房屋被毁,电力系统和电话中断时间长达数天,受影响的人数大约为1000万,财产损失大约为80亿美元。由于风暴的极端强度和快速发展速度,欧洲大多数国家的数值预报中心没有对这次剧烈天气提供足够的预警。为此,利用中尺度数值预报系统（RAMS）模拟圣诞节风暴,并与ECMWF分析资料以及实况观测资料进行了对比分析。结果表明,RAMS模式能够准确模拟风暴的主要特性、低气压的演变和位置移动、发展的关键时间点、风暴演化期间的平均风场;模拟的平均风场和气象观测网的观测结果相一致;模拟的风暴移动时间和主要新闻媒体的报道相吻合;模式计算的一些特定地区平均风速的时间趋势显示,在阿尔卑斯山脉地区,无论是上风区还是下风区,风暴的时间都被准确地预测;模拟的第一次风暴最低气压值较实际值偏低。  相似文献   

Simulations of the supersonic radiative jet propagation in plasmas     

X. Ribeyre  P. Nicolaï  S. Galera  V. T. Tikhonchuk 《Astrophysics and Space Science》2009,322(1-4):85-90

Supersonic plasma jets are ubiquitous in astrophysics. Our study focus on the jets emanated from Herbig-Haro (HH) objects. They have velocities of a few hundred km/s and are extending over the distances more than a parsec. Interaction of the jets with surrounding matter produces two specific structures in the jet head: the bow shock and the Mach disk. The radiative cooling of these shocks affects strongly the jet dynamics. A tool to understand the physics of these jets is the laboratory experiment. A supersonic jet interaction with surrounding plasma was studied on the PALS laser facility. A collimated high-Z plasma jet with a velocity exceeding 400 km/s was generated and propagated over a few millimeters length. Here we report on study the effect of radiative cooling on the head jet structure with a 2D radiative hydrodynamic code. The simulation results demonstrated the scalability of the experimental observations to the HH jets.  相似文献   

Lake sediments from Store Koldewey, Northeast Greenland, as archive of Late Pleistocene and Holocene climatic and environmental changes     

MARTIN KLUG  STEFFI SCHMIDT  OLE BENNIKE  OLIVER HEIRI  MARTIN MELLES  BERND WAGNER 《Boreas: An International Journal of Quaternary Research》2009,38(1):59-71

A 2.9 m long sedimentary record was studied from a small lake, here referred to as Duck Lake, located at 76°25'N, 18°45'W on Store Koldewey, an elongated island off the coast of Northeast Greenland. The sediments were investigated for their geophysical and biogeochemical characteristics, and for their fossil chironomid assemblages. Organic matter began to accumulate in the lake at 9.1 cal. kyr BP, which provides a minimum age for the deglaciation of the basin. Although the early to mid-Holocene is known as a thermal maximum in East Greenland, organic matter accumulation in the lake remained low during the early Holocene, likely due to late plant immigration and lack of nutrient availability. Organic matter accumulation increased during the middle and late Holocene, when temperatures in East Greenland gradually decreased. Enhanced soil formation probably led to higher nutrient availability and increased production in the lake. Chironomids are abundant throughout the record after 9.1 cal. kyr BP and seem to react sensitively to changes in temperature and nutrient availability. It is concluded that relative temperature reconstructions based on biogeochemical data have to be regarded critically, particularly in the period shortly after deglaciation when nutrient availability was low. Chironomids may be a suitable tool for climatic reconstructions even in those high arctic environments. However, a better understanding of the ecology of chironomids under these extreme conditions is needed.  相似文献   

An algorithm to resolve γ-rays from charged cosmic rays with DAMPE     

Zun-Lei Xu  Kai-Kai Duan  Zhao-Qiang Shen  Shi-Jun Lei  Tie-Kuang Dong  Fabio Gargano  Simone Garrappa  Dong-Ya Guo  Wei Jiang  Xiang Li  Yun-Feng Liang  Mario Nicola Mazziotta  Maria Fernanda Munoz Salinas  Meng Su  Valerio Vagelli  Qiang Yuan  Chuan Yue  Jing-Jing Zang  Ya-Peng Zhang  Yun-Long Zhang  Stephan Zimmer 《天文和天体物理学研究(英文版)》2018,(3)

The DArk Matter Particle Explorer(DAMPE),also known as Wukong in China,which was launched on 2015 December 17,is a new high energy cosmic ray and γ-ray satellite-borne observatory.One of the main scientific goals of DAMPE is to observe Ge V-Te V high energy γ-rays with accurate energy,angular and time resolution,to indirectly search for dark matter particles and for the study of high energy astrophysics. Due to the comparatively higher fluxes of charged cosmic rays with respect to γ-rays,it is challenging to identify γ-rays with sufficiently high efficiency,minimizing the amount of charged cosmic ray contamination. In this work we present a method to identify γ-rays in DAMPE data based on Monte Carlo simulations,using the powerful electromagnetic/hadronic shower discrimination provided by the calorimeter and the veto detection of charged particles provided by the plastic scintillation detector. Monte Carlo simulations show that after this selection the number of electrons and protons that contaminate the selected γ-ray events at～10 Ge V amounts to less than 1% of the selected sample.Finally,we use flight data to verify the effectiveness of the method by highlighting known γ-ray sources in the sky and by reconstructing preliminary light curves of the Geminga pulsar.  相似文献   

A multi‐storage groundwater concept for the SWAT model to emphasize nonlinear groundwater dynamics in lowland catchments          下载免费PDF全文

Matthias Pfannerstill  Björn Guse  Nicola Fohrer 《水文研究》2014,28(22):5599-5612

Hydrological models are useful tools to analyze present and future conditions of water quantity and quality. The integrated modelling of water and nutrients needs an adequate representation of the different discharge components. In common with many lowlands, groundwater contribution to the discharge in the North German lowlands is a key factor for a reasonable representation of the water balance, especially in low flow periods. Several studies revealed that the widely used Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model performs poorly for low flow periods. This paper deals with the extension of the groundwater module of the SWAT model to enhance low flow representation. The current two‐storage concept of SWAT was further developed to a three‐storage concept. This was realized due to modification of the groundwater module by splitting the active groundwater storage into a fast and a slow contributing aquifer. The results of this study show that the groundwater module with three storages leads to a good prediction of the overall discharge especially for the recession limbs and the low flow periods. The improved performance is reflected in the signature measures for the mid‐segment (percent bias ?2.4% vs ?15.9%) and the low segment (percent bias 14.8% vs 46.8%) of the flow duration curve. The three‐storage groundwater module is more process oriented than the original version due to the introduction of a fast and a slow groundwater flow component. The three‐storage version includes a modular approach, because groundwater storages can be activated or deactivated independently for subbasin and hydrological response unit level. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献