A conceptual framework for multi-regional climate change assessments for international market systems with long-term investments     

Julie A. Winkler  Suzanne Thornsbury  Marco Artavia  Frank-M. Chmielewski  Dieter Kirschke  Sangjun Lee  Malgorzata Liszewska  Scott Loveridge  Pang-Ning Tan  Sharon Zhong  Jeffrey A. Andresen  J. Roy Black  Robert Kurlus  Denys Nizalov  Nicole Olynk  Zbigniew Ustrnul  Costanza Zavalloni  Jeanne M. Bisanz  Géza Bujdosó  Lesley Fusina  Yvonne Henniges  Peter Hilsendegen  Katarzyna Lar  Lukasz Malarzewski  Thordis Moeller  Roman Murmylo  Tadeusz Niedzwiedz  Olena Nizalova  Haryono Prawiranata  Nikki Rothwell  Jenni van Ravensway  Harald von Witzke  Mollie Woods 《Climatic change》2010,103(3-4):445-470

A conceptual framework for climate change assessments of international market systems that involve long-term investments is proposed. The framework is a hybrid of dynamic and static modeling. Dynamic modeling is used for those system components for which temporally continuous modeling is possible, while fixed time slices are used for other system components where it can be assumed that underlying assumptions are held constant within the time slices but allowed to vary between slices. An important component of the framework is the assessment of the “metauncertainty” arising from the structural uncertainties of a linked sequence of climate, production, trade and decision-making models. The impetus for proposing the framework is the paucity of industry-wide assessments for market systems with multiple production regions and long-term capital investments that are vulnerable to climate variations and change, especially climate extremes. The proposed framework is pragmatic, eschewing the ideal for the tractable. Even so, numerous implementation challenges are expected, which are illustrated using an example industry. The conceptual framework is offered as a starting point for further discussions of strategies and approaches for climate change impact, vulnerability and adaptation assessments for international market systems.  相似文献   

From outcrop and petrographic studies to basin-scale fluid flow modelling: The use of the Albanian natural laboratory for carbonate reservoir characterisation   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Nadge Vilasi  Julien Malandain  Laurie Barrier  Jean-Paul Callot  Khalid Amrouch  Nicole Guilhaumou  Olivier Lacombe  Kristaq Muska  Franois Roure  Rudy Swennen 《Tectonophysics》2009,474(1-2):367

The Albanian fold-and-thrust belt and the Peri-Adriatic Depression are well documented by means of seismic reflection profiles, GPS reference points, potential data, wells and outcrops. The continuous Oligocene to Plio-Quaternary sedimentary records help to constrain both the burial history of Mesozoic carbonate reservoirs, the timing of their deformation, and the coupled fluid flow and diagenetic scenarios.Since the mid-90s, the Albanian foothills were used as a natural laboratory to develop a new integrated methodology and work flow for the study of sub-thrust reservoir evolution, and to validate on real case studies the use of basin modelling tools as well as the application of new analytical methods for the study petroleum systems in tectonically complex areas.The integration of the interactions between petrographic and microtectonic studies, kinematic, thermal and fluid flow basin modelling, is described in detail. The fracturing of the reservoir intervals has a pre-folding origin in the Albanides and relates to the regional flexuring in the foreland. The first recorded cement has a meteoric origin, implying downward migration and the development of an earlier forebulge in the Ionian Basin. This fluid, which precipitates at a maximum depth of 1.5 km, is highly enriched in strontium, attesting for important fluid–rock interaction with the Triassic evaporites, located in diapirs. From this stage, the horizontal tectonic compression increases and the majority of the fluid migrated under high pressure, characterised by brecciated and crack-seal vein. The tectonic burial increased due to the overthrusting, that is pointed out by the increase of the precipitation temperature of the cements. Afterwards, up- or downward migration of SO₄²⁻, Ba²⁺ and Mg²⁺-rich fluids, which migrated probably along the décollement level, allows a precipitation in thermal disequilibrium. This period corresponds to the onset of the thrusting in the Ionian Zone. The last stage characterised the uplift of the Berati belt, developing a selective karstification due likely to the circulation of meteoric fluid.The main results of the fluid flow modelling show that the Upper Cretaceous–Paleocene carbonate reservoirs in the Ionian zone have been charged from the Tortonian onward, and that meteoric fluid migration should have intensely biodegraded the hydrocarbon in place. Concerning the migration paths, it has been demonstrated that the thrusts act principally as flow barriers in Albania, mainly due the occurrence of evaporites (non-permeable), except in the foreland, where they do not occur.  相似文献   

Long lasting interactions between tectonic loading, unroofing, post-rift thermal subsidence and sedimentary transfers along the western margin of the Gulf of Mexico: Some insights from integrated quantitative studies     

François Roure  Humberto Alzaga-Ruiz  Jean-Paul Callot  Didier Granjeon  Nicole Guilhaumou  Pascal Mougin  Michel Séranne 《Tectonophysics》2009,475(1):169-189

After Jurassic rifting, numerous carbonate platforms (i.e., the Orizaba, Cordoba and Golden Lane-Tuxpan platforms) developed during the Lower and Middle Cretaceous episode of thermal subsidence along the western passive margin of the Gulf of Mexico, with intervening basinal domains (i.e., the Tampico-Misantla, Zongolica, Veracruz and Deep Gulf of Mexico - DGM - basins).During the Late Cretaceous-Paleocene, the east-verging Sierra Madre Oriental thrust belt developed, resulting in tectonic uplift and unroofing of the allochthonous units (i.e. tectonic units made up of former Orizaba and Cordoba platforms and Zongolica Basin series). This new topography provided also an important source of clastics to feed the adjacent foredeep, where coeval tectonic loading accounted for the bending of the foreland lithosphere. However, shallow water facies or even emersion persisted until the Eocene in the forebulge area (at the present location of the Golden Lane), preventing locally the clastics to reach the DGM. This topographic barrier was ultimately bypassed by the clastics only during the Oligocene and Neogene, once (1) the prograding clastic wedge had exceeded accommodation, and (2) the long lasting thermal subsidence of the passive margin could overpass the effect of the bending and force the former bulge to sink.Numerous paleo-thermo-meters (Tmax, Ro), paleo-thermo-barometers (fluid inclusions), PVT and coupled forward kinematic and thermal modeling have been used to calibrate and date the progressive unroofing of the thrust belt. Coupled tectonic and sedimentologic modeling was applied in the foreland to predict the distribution of sand versus shale ratios in the Oligocene to Plio-Quaternary clastic sedimentary wedge of the passive margin, where gravitational gliding of post-Eocene series occurred during the Neogene along major listric faults.Mantle dynamics are advocated as the main process accounting for post-orogenic uplift and regional tilting of the basement, which initiated a massive transfer of sediments from the Cordillera towards the Gulf of Mexico, from Oligocene onward, resulting in a destabilization and gravitational collapse of the western slope of the Gulf of Mexico in Neogene times.  相似文献   

Reassessment of historical sections from the Paleogene marine margin of the Congo Basin reveals an almost complete absence of Danian deposits     

Floréal Solé  Corentin Noiret  Delphine Desmares  Sylvain Adnet  Louis Taverne  Thierry De Putter  Florias Mees  Johan Yans  Thomas Steeman  Stephen Louwye  Annelise Folie  Nancy J.Stevens  Gregg F.Gunnell  Daniel Baudet  Nicole Kitambala Yaya  Thierry Smith 《地学前缘(英文版)》2019,10(3):1039-1063

The early Paleogene is critical for understanding global biodiversity patterns in modern ecosystems. During this interval, Southern Hemisphere continents were largely characterized by isolation and faunal endemism following the breakup of Gondwana. Africa has been proposed as an important source area for the origin of several marine vertebrate groups but its Paleogene record is poorly sampled, especially from sub-Saharan Africa. To document the early Paleogene marine ecosystems of Central Africa, we revised the stratigraphic context of sedimentary deposits from three fossil-rich vertebrate localities: the Landana section in the Cabinda exclave(Angola), and the Manzadi and Bololo localities in western Democratic Republic of Congo.We provide more refined age constraints for these three localities based on invertebrate and vertebrate faunas, foraminiferal and dinoflagellate cyst assemblages, and carbon isotope records. We find an almost complete absence of Danian-aged rocks in the Landana section, contrary to prevailing interpretations over the last half a century(only the layer 1, at the base of the section, seems to be Danian). Refining the age of these Paleocene layers is crucial for analyzing fish evolution in a global framework, with implications for the early appearance of Scombridae(tunas and mackerels) and Tetraodontiformes(puffer fishes). The combination of vertebrate fossil records from Manzadi and Landana sections suggests important environmental changes around the K/Pg transition characterized by an important modification of the ichthyofauna. A small faunal shift may have occurred during the Selandian. More dramatic is the distinct decrease in overall richness that lasts from the Selandian to the Ypresian. The Lutetian of West Central Africa is characterized by the first appearance of numerous cartilaginous and bony fishes. Our analysis of the ichthyofauna moreover indicates two periods of faunal exchanges: one during the Paleocene, where Central Africa appears to have been a source for the European marine fauna, and another during the Eocene when Europe was the source of the Central Africa fauna. These data indicate that Central Africa has had connections with the Tethyian realm.  相似文献   

A general model of the planetary radiation pressure on a satellite with a complex shape     

Nicole Borderies 《Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy》1990,49(1):99-110

The purpose of this paper is to present a general model for the acceleration exerted on a spacecraft by the radiation coming from a planet. Both the solar radiation reflected by the planet and the thermal emission associated with its temperature are considered. The planet albedo and the planet emissive power are expanded in spherical harmonics with respect to an equatorial reference frame attached to the planet. The satellite external surface is assumed to consist of a juxtaposition of planar surfaces. A particular choice of variables allows to reduce the surface integrals over the lit portion of the planet visible to the satellite to one-dimension integrals.  相似文献   

An experimental study of bromine behaviour in water-saturated silicic melts   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

H.élène Bureau  Nicole Métrich 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2003,67(9):1689-1697

To assess the effect of the melt composition on bromine concentrations in magmas, we have investigated bromide solubility for water-saturated, iron-free silicic melts with variable Na+K/Al and Si/Al molar ratios (albite, haplogranite, rhyolite, and pantellerite). The experiments were performed in rapid quench cold-seal autoclaves over a range of pressure (1, 1.5, and 2 kbar) and temperature (900, 1000, and 1080 °C) with run durations from 5 to 7 days. A series of natural volcanic glasses and melt inclusions hosted in magmatic minerals were analysed together with the synthetic glasses by PIXE (proton-induced X-ray emission). The Br concentrations range from 5360 to 7850 ppm for albite, from 2800 to 3900 ppm for haplogranite, from 4300 to 5900 ppm for rhyolite, and from 9745 to 11,250 ppm for pantellerite. Br concentrations are negatively correlated with pressure in H₂O-saturated silicic melts and vary with (Na+K)/Al molar ratio with a minimum value at the ratio close to unity. Br behaves similarly to chlorine for all of these melt compositions. The bromide solubility is similar in albitic and rhyolitic melts, which implies that D^f/m is nearly the same for both compositions and is applicable for natural rhyolites as suggested in our previous study (Bureau et al., 2000). This means that the volcanic Br contribution to the atmosphere may be significant. In natural obsidian samples and MI hosted in quartz, olivine, and leucite, the Br concentration varies from < 3 to 28 ppm, with the highest concentrations in pantelleritic melts. We attribute the low Br concentrations of natural melts to a low initial abundance of this halogen in the Earth mantle. However, because Br behaves as an incompatible element before water exsolution, our results imply that magmas could contain much more dissolved Br before eruption and water degassing than the few ppm usually measured in volcanic rocks. Br behaviour during magma crystallisation is controlled by its partitioning into the H₂O-rich fluid phase when this occurs. In addition, its potential high solubility in silicate melts makes it a very sensitive chemical tracer of magma contamination by seawater and Br-rich material. This infers that the investigation of Br behaviour in subduction-zone samples may help for a better understanding of volatiles cycling between the Earth reservoirs.  相似文献   

Le Formations Eruptives et la Structure de l’Edifice Volcanique au Centre du Cantal (Massif Central Français)     

Nicole Vatin-Perignon 《Bulletin of Volcanology》1968,32(1):207-251

  相似文献   

Palagonite – a review     

Nicole A. Stroncik  Hans-Ulrich Schmincke 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2002,91(4):680-697

  相似文献   

Évolution thermique des séries sédimentaires de la Marge ardéchoise : étude pétrographique de la matière organique et des argilesThermal evolution of the sedimentary series of the Ardèche Margin: petrological studies of organic matter and clays     

Luis Martinez  Joëlle Duplay  Isabel Suarez-Ruiz  Jean Robert Disnar  Geneviève Farjanel  Philippe Larqué  Nicole Liewig 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2002,334(14):1021-1028

Two wells, Balazuc (BA1) and Morte-Mérie (MM1), located in a confined area (1200 m apart) and separated by the Uzer fault (a Liassic structure with a dip fault of 1300 m) were analysed using conventional methodologies and techniques (PRV, TAI, XRD, STEM) in order to compare the diagenetic evolution of clays and organic matter. The thermal convective process allows the circulation of hot fluids and the oxidation of organic matter. The conductive process allows the maturation of the organic matter, the expulsion of hydrocarbons and the deposit of pyrobitumes in the migration channels. To cite this article: L. Martinez et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1021–1028.  相似文献   

Factors Influencing the Bacteriological Water Quality in Mountainous Surface and Groundwaters     

Nicole Schaffter  Jacques Zumstein  Aurle Parriaux 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2004,32(3):225-234

The presence of pathogenic bacteria in water, along with the factors that act upon them, constitutes a field that has been little investigated in natural environments. It is clear, however, that these pathogens do have a significant effect on the quality of drinking water. Selected bacteria such as Salmonella, Campylobacter, Yersinia, and Listeria were searched for in groundwaters of mainly mountainous regions. Waters of one or two brooks in the catchment area of each spring were also analysed. Our results show that Campylo bacter and Listeria are frequent in all of these waters, even when land use in the catchment area is extensive (mountain pastures). Salmonella, on the other hand, was never found. Factors influencing the presence of Campylobacter, Yersinia, and Listeria were tested using Spearman rank correlations. The results suggest that the presence in water of some species of these bacteria (C. jejuni, L. monocytogenes 4b, and L. ivanovii) is related to a contaminant input, i.e. to the presence of cattle in the catchment area. For other species (C. coli, L. monocytogenes 1/2a, and Yersinia enterocolitica), however, one is forced to admit that no such connection between the presence of these species and that of an identified, potential contaminant input exists. We are therefore obliged to conclude either that these bacteria multiply in a natural way in the environment, or that they are able to survive in it for a long time. Finally, the present study shows that pathogenic bacteria are not always accompanied by indicators of faecal contamination (Escherichia coli, entero cocci); for this reason, they could potentially pose a risk to public health.  相似文献