空间尺度转换与跨尺度信息链接:区域生态水文模拟研究空间尺度转换方法综述     

吴江华  赵鹏祥  Nigel Roulet  PENG Changhui 《地球科学进展》2008,23(2):129-141

空间尺度转换是近年来区域生态水文研究领域的一个基本研究问题。其需要主要是源于模型的输入数据与所能提供的数据空间尺度不一致以及模型所代表的地表过程空间尺度与所观测的地表过程空间尺度不吻合。综述了目前区域生态水文模拟研究中常用的空间尺度转换研究方法,包括向上尺度转换和向下尺度转换。详细论述了2种向下尺度转换方法: 统计学经验模型和动态模型。前者是通过将GCM大尺度数据与长期的历史观测数据比较从而建立统计学相关模型, 然后利用这个统计学经验模型进行向下的空间尺度转换. 然而动态模型并不直接对GCM数据进行向下尺度的转换,而是对与GCM进行动态耦合的区域气候模型(RCM) 的输出数据进行空间尺度转换. 通常后者所获得的数据精度要比前者高,但是一个主要缺点就是并不是全球所有的研究区域都有对应的RCM。还详细论述了2种向上尺度转换方法: 统计学经验模型和斑块模型。前者是建立一个能代表小尺度信息在大尺度上分布的密度分布概率函数, 然后利用这个函数在所需的大尺度上进行积分而求得大尺度所需的信息。而后者是根据相似性最大化原则将大尺度划分为若干个可操作的小尺度斑块,然后将计算的每个小尺度斑块的信息平均化得到大尺度所需的信息。通常在计算这种斑块化的小尺度信息的时候,对每个小尺度也会采用统计学经验模型来计算代表整个斑块小尺度的信息。建议用斑块模型与统计学经验模型相集合的方法来实现向上的空间尺度转换  相似文献   

Fundamentals of rock mechanics | J.C. Jaeger and N.G.W. Cook. Chapman and Hall,London, 2nd ed., 1976, 585 pp., £7.50, paperback     

J.H. Atkinson 《Engineering Geology》1977,11(3):241

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WINCHESTER AND WILLS AFTER HALF A CENTURY     

K. B. Atkinson 《The Photogrammetric Record》1978,9(51):415-417

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Monazite behaviour and age significance in poly-metamorphic high-grade terrains: A case study from the western Musgrave Block, central Australia     

Nigel M. Kelly  Geoffrey L. Clarke  Simon L. Harley 《Lithos》2006,88(1-4):100-134

Integrated, in situ textural, chemical and electron microprobe age analysis of monazite grains in a migmatitic metapelitic gneiss from the western Musgrave Block, central Australia has identified evidence for multiple events of growth and recrystallisation during poly-metamorphism in the Mesoproterozoic. Garnet + sillimanite-bearing metapelite underwent partial melting and segregation to palaeosome and leucosome during metamorphism between 1330 and 1296 Ma, with monazite grains in leucosome recording crystallisation at 1300 Ma. Monazite breakdown during melting is inferred to have occurred in the palaeosome. During a subsequent granulite facies event at 1200 Ma, deformation and metamorphism of leucosome and palaeosome resulted in partial disturbance of ages and potential minor growth on 1300 Ma monazite in leucosome. Growth of new, high-Y (+HREE) monazite in palaeosome domains occurred during garnet breakdown in the presence of sillimanite to cordierite and spinel, as a result of post-peak isothermal decompression. Diffusive enrichment of resorbed garnet rims in Y + HREE suggests garnet breakdown occurred slower than volume diffusion of REE. Monazite in both palaeosome and leucosome were subsequently partially to penetratively recrystallised during a retrogression event that is suggested to have occurred at 1150–1130 Ma. The intensity of recrystallisation and disturbance of ages appears linked to proximity to retrogressed garnet porphyroblasts and their occurrence in the relatively reactive or ‘fertile’ local environments provided by the palaeosome/mesosome volumes, which caused localised changes in retrogressive fluids towards compositions more aggressive to monazite. Like reaction textures, it is apparent that domainal equilibrium and reaction may control or at least strongly influence monazite REE and U–Th–Pb chemistry and hence ages.  相似文献   

The future of geography     

Nigel Thrift 《Geoforum》2002,33(3):291-298

This paper is an attempt to assess the current state and future prospects of Geography especially but not only in Britain. It is quasi-polemical and should be read in that spirit. The paper looks first at the notable successes of physical and human geography. It then considers how these successes are being buttressed by current events taking place in the world. Next, the paper considers the main problems that beset geography. Finally, however, the paper ends on another positive note by considering some of the exciting new developments that are now taking place in the discipline which will allow it to relate to more of the many worlds that make up geography's vocation.  相似文献   

Dynamos in planets, stars and galaxies     

Nigel Weiss 《Astronomy& Geophysics》2002,43(3):3.09-3.15

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Fluxes of Sr into the headwaters of the Ganges   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Mike J Bickle  Judith Bunbury  Nigel B.W Harris  Talat Ahmad 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2003,67(14):2567-2584

Himalayan weathering is recognized as an important agent in modifying sea water chemistry, but there are significant uncertainties in our understanding of Himalayan riverine fluxes. This paper examines causes of the variability, including that of the seasons, by analysis of downstream variations in Sr, ⁸⁷Sr, and major ions in the mainstream, in relation to the composition of tributary streams from subcatchments with differing geologic substrates.Water samples were collected over four periods spanning the premonsoon, monsoon, and postmonsoon seasons. Uncertainties in the relative fluxes have been estimated, using Monte Carlo techniques, from the short-term variability of mainstream chemistry and the scatter of tributary compositions. The results show marked seasonal variations in the relative inputs related to high monsoon rainfall in the High and Lesser Himalaya, contrasting with the major contribution from glacial melt waters from the Tibetan Sedimentary Series (TSS) at times of low rainfall. Much of the spread in previously published estimates of the sources of Sr in Himalayan rivers may result from these seasonal variations in Sr fluxes.The annual fluxes of Sr into the headwaters of the Ganges are derived from the three main tectonic units in the proportions 35 ± 1% from the TSS, 27 ± 3% from the High Himalayan Crystalline Series (HHCS), and 38 ± 8% from the Lesser Himalaya. The particularly elevated ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios characteristic of the HHCS and the Lesser Himalaya enhance their influence on seawater Sr-isotope composition. The TSS contributes 13 ± 1%, the HHCS 30 ± 3%, and the Lesser Himalaya 57 ± 11% of the ⁸⁷Sr flux in excess of the seawater ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratio of 0.709.  相似文献   

The Vulnerability of the Australian Beef Industry to Impacts of the Cattle Tick (Boophilus microplus) under Climate Change     

Neil White  Robert W. Sutherst  Nigel Hall  Patrick Whish-Wilson 《Climatic change》2003,61(1-2):157-190

An integrated assessment is presented of the potential impacts of the cattle tick (Boophilus microplus Canestrini) on the Australian beefindustry under climate change. The project was carried out as a case study to test an impact assessment approach that was designed to integrate biological, production and socio-economic impacts on managed and natural systems. A climate-driven, tick population model was run for European, zebu and crossbred cattle breeds having different levels of resistance to cattle ticks. A geographical information system (GIS) was used to organise spatial data on climate scenarios and industry statistics and to undertake regional analyses.A comparison was made of the two available approaches to conducting impact assessments, namely a bottom-up approach using sensitivity analysis and a top-down approach using climate change scenarios from a global circulation model (GCM) (CSIRO, 1996). The output, in terms of the abundance of tick populations and reductions in cattle productivity for each breed showed significant expansions in potential geographical impacts. In the absence of any adaptation measures, the results indicated changes in the losses in live weight gain of cattle tick ranging from 7780 tonnes per year by 2030 to 21637 tonnes per year by 2100, in comparison with estimates for current losses of 6594 tonnes per year.The principal adaptation options available to the beef industry are to switch to breeds that are more resistant to cattle ticks, or to increase the frequency of treatments with various tick control products. In this paper we focus on switching breeds as an adaptive measure when appropriate damage thresholds are triggered under the climate change scenarios. When adaptation measures were put in place, the losses ranged from 4962 tonnes in 2030 to 5619 tonnes in 2100 compared with 2636 tonnes at present if all producers adopted the optimal breed structure. Optimal breed structure was defined as one that would prevent tick numbers per animal exceeding 100 ticks per animal for European and 700 ticks per animal for crossbred breeds of cattle in any week of the year under a tick control strategy that was suitable for present climatic conditions. The lower threshold for European breeds reflects their vulnerability to explosive increases in numbers because of their low resistance to ticks. The results of the analyses using the GCM scenarios were used in an economic model to calculate costs of lost live-weight gain for 2030, 2070 and 2100. The greatest increases in costs were incurred in the southern parts of the current distribution in Queensland and potentially in northern New South Wales if the present quarantine barrier failed.Given the great uncertainty of the nature of possible regional changes in climate, analyses of the sensitivity of losses in live weight gain to changes in climatic variables were also undertaken. The analyses included a measure of likely impacts of cattle tick on the beef cattle industry, in the absence of adaptation measures, as a baseline measure of sensitivity. The likely impacts on crossbred cattle were insensitive to the climatic variables.When adaptive breed changes were allowed, the economic impacts on the industry were insensitive to the GCM scenarios. This suggests that, at least in this instance, reducing the uncertainties in climate change scenarios is not a priority if the adaptation strategies can be implemented in a cost-effective manner. Finally we made a qualitative assessment of the sustainability and robustness of alternative approaches to adaptation and assessed regional vulnerability to cattle tick under climate change. The conclusions were so strongly dependent on assumptions about the future of other global changes, in particular the ability to maintain quarantine barriers and to retain effective acaricides at comparable costs to the present, that we strongly recommend that risk assessments of climate change extend to all relevant variables in involved in global change where possible.  相似文献   

Kinetics of the Gas-Phase Reactions of OH Radicals, NO3 Radicals and O3 with Three C7-Carbonyls Formed From The Atmospheric Reactions of Myrcene, Ocimene and Terpinolene     

Jillian Baker  Janet Arey  Roger Atkinson 《Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry》2004,48(3):241-260

Rate constants for the gas-phase reactions of OH radicals, NO₃ radicals and O₃ with the C₇-carbonyl compounds 4-methylenehex-5-enal [CH₂=CHC(=CH₂)CH₂CH₂CHO], (3Z)- and (3E)-4-methylhexa-3,5-dienal [CH₂=CHC(CH₃)=CHCH₂CHO] and 4-methylcyclohex-3-en-1-one, which are products of the atmospheric degradations of myrcene, Z- and E-ocimene and terpinolene, respectively, have been measured at 296 ± 2 K and atmospheric pressure of air using relative rate methods. The rate constants obtained (in cm³ molecule^–1 s^–1 units) were: for 4-methylenehex-5-enal, (1.55 ± 0.15) × 10^–10, (4.75 ± 0.35) × 10^–13 and (1.46 ± 0.12) × 10^–17 for the OH radical, NO₃ radical and O₃ reactions, respectively; for (3Z)-4-methylhexa-3,5-dienal: (1.61 ± 0.35) × 10^–10, (2.17 ± 0.30) × 10^–12, and (4.13 ± 0.81) × 10^–17 for the OH radical, NO₃ radical and O₃ reactions, respectively; for (3E)-4-methylhexa-3,5-dienal: (2.52 ± 0.65) × 10^–10, (1.75 ± 0.27) × 10^–12, and (5.36 ± 0.28) × 10^–17 for the OH radical, NO₃ radical and O₃ reactions, respectively; and for 4-methylcyclohex-3-en-1-one: (1.10 ± 0.19) × 10^–10, (1.81 ± 0.35) × 10^–12, and (6.98 ± 0.40) × 10^–17 for the OH radical, NO₃ radical and O₃ reactions, respectively. These carbonyl compounds are all reactive in the troposphere, with daytime reaction with the OH radical and nighttime reaction with the NO₃ radical being predicted to dominate as loss processes and with estimated lifetimes of about an hour or less.  相似文献   

The making of Stars 'R' Us!     

Serena Viti  Wendy Brown  Martin McCoustra  Helen Fraser  Nigel Mason  Robert Massey 《Astronomy& Geophysics》2004,45(6):6.22-6.24

The team behind a successful project to broaden the understanding of astrochemistry – Serena Viti, Wendy Brown, Martin McCoustra, Helen Fraser, Nigel Mason and Robert Massey – recount how they went about it and what benefits resulted.  相似文献