Application of open tools and datasets to probabilistic modeling of road traffic disruptions due to earthquake damage     

Catarina Costa  Rui Figueiredo  Vitor Silva  Paolo Bazzurro 《地震工程与结构动力学》2020,49(12):1236-1255

The disruption of a transportation network can have a high social and economic impact on the welfare of a society, as it can significantly affect the daily routines of a community. Although many studies have focused on the estimation of physical risk in the components that compose these networks, only a limited number have analyzed their interconnections and impact in the traffic flow. The present study analyzes how earthquake damage can disrupt the road network in an urban environment, and how this will influence the ability of the population to travel. Traffic due to daily commutes is modeled for different layouts of the network, corresponding to possible disruptions caused by earthquake damage. The duration and length of each trip were calculated both for the undamaged network conditions and for the disrupted network. The increase in the median duration and length of each trip allows estimating the economic loss for each event due to drivers' delay. By combining the probability of a specific road being blocked with its number of users, the average number of affected vehicles was estimated, and the most critical segments identified. The methodology was applied to a case study concerning the road network of the area around the Italian city of Messina in Sicily. The results were calculated for both a repetition of the well-known historical event of 1908 and a set of simulated earthquakes consistent with the national probabilistic seismic hazard model of Italy.  相似文献   

Multimodal water age distributions and the challenge of complex hydrological landscapes     

Nicolas B. Rodriguez  Paolo Benettin  Julian Klaus 《水文研究》2020,34(12):2707-2724

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Assessment of calanchi and rill–interrill erosion susceptibilities using terrain analysis and geostochastics: A case study in the Oltrepo Pavese,Northern Apennines,Italy     

Alberto Bosino  Paolo Giordani  Geraldine Quénéhervé  Michael Maerker 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(12):3025-3041

Soil erosion is one of the most important environmental problems distributed worldwide. In the last decades, numerous studies have been published on the assessment of soil erosion and the related processes and forms using empirical, conceptual and physically based models. For the prediction of the spatial distribution, more and more sophisticated stochastic modelling approaches have been proposed – especially on smaller spatial scales such as river basins. In this work, we apply a maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to evaluate badlands (calanchi) and rill–interrill (sheet erosion) areas in the Oltrepo Pavese (Northern Apennines, Italy). The aim of the work is to assess the important environmental predictors that influence calanchi and rill–interrill erosion at the regional scale. We used 13 topographic parameters derived from a 12 m digital elevation model (TanDEM-X) and data on the lithology and land use. Additional information about the vegetation is introduced through the normalized difference vegetation index based on remotely sensed data (ASTER images). The results are presented in the form of susceptibility maps showing the spatial distribution of the occurrence probability for calanchi and rill–interrill erosion. For the validation of the MaxEnt model results, a support vector machine approach was applied. The models show reliable results and highlight several locations of the study area that are potentially prone to future soil erosion. Thus, coping and mitigation strategies may be developed to prevent or fight the soil erosion phenomenon under consideration. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Sedimentary and geochemical characterization of Middle–Late Miocene formations in the Neogene Tsugaru Basin,Japan by means of DTH27‐1 well sediment analysis     

Paolo Martizzi  Shun Chiyonobu  Hiroyuki Arato 《Island Arc》2020,29(1)

Middle–Late Miocene age siliceous formations outcropping along the northwestern side of Honshu Island are considered prospective source rocks for hydrocarbons. An analysis of geophysical, sedimentological, and geochemical properties is essential to evaluate the formations' source potential, and to understand the factors that determined the accumulation and preservation of organic matter. This study investigates the Middle–Late Miocene geological record of the Tsugaru back‐arc basin, located in the western part of Aomori prefecture, through an analysis of a 200 m long portion of a core from the DTH27‐1 well; this core is composed of the diatomaceous siltstones of the Akaishi Formation and the siliceous mudstones of the Odoji Formation. Sedimentological and geophysical characterization showed that the Akaishi Formation's diatomaceous siltstones are mostly massive and bioturbated, have low magnetic susceptibility, and demonstrate moderate natural radioactivity. Although the Odoji Formation's siliceous mudstones are massive, they have exceedingly low magnetic susceptibility and high natural radioactivity. Geochemical data from a Rock‐Eval Pyrolysis such as total organic carbon and generative potential (S1 + S2) revealed that, in the Tsugaru area, only the Odoji Formation is a likely prospective source rock for hydrocarbons. On the other hand, T_max values indicate that both the formations are thermally immature for generating hydrocarbons. The difference between the Akaishi and Odoji Formation in the sedimentological facies, in terms of the degree of bioturbation and the organic carbon content, indicates variations in lithological properties, such as porosity and grain size; moreover, this difference indicates a variation in the paleo‐oxygenation of bottom waters, with the transition from oxygen‐deficient conditions in the Middle Miocene to the more oxygenated conditions in the Late Miocene. Both the lithological and paleo‐environmental factors possibly influenced the organic richness in the two formations.  相似文献   

Conditional spectrum bidirectional record selection for risk assessment of 3D structures using scalar and vector IMs     

Mohsen Kohrangi  Paolo Bazzurro  Dimitrios Vamvatsikos 《地震工程与结构动力学》2019,48(9):1066-1082

Several proposals are explored for the hazard and intensity measure (IM) consistent selection of bidirectional ground motions to assess the performance of 3D structural models. Recent studies have shown the necessity of selecting records that thoroughly represent the seismicity at the site of interest, as well as the usefulness of efficient IMs capable of estimating the response of buildings with low scatter. However, the advances realized are mostly geared towards the structural analysis of 2D models. Few are the combined record, and IM selection approaches suggested expressly for nonlinear dynamic analysis of 3D structural models, especially when plan asymmetry and torsion sensitivity come into play. Conditional spectrum selection is leveraged and expanded here to offer a suite of approaches based on both scalar and vector IMs that convey information from two orthogonal horizontal components of the ground motion. Applications on multiple 3D building models highlight the importance of (a) employing the same IM for both record selection and response assessment and (b) maintaining hazard consistency in both horizontal components, when using either a scalar or a vector IM. All tested approaches that respect these conditions can be viable, yet the one based on the geometric mean of multiple spectral ordinates from both components over a period range seems to hold the most promise for general use.  相似文献   

Uncertainty quantification of overpressure buildup through inverse modeling of compaction processes in sedimentary basins     

Ivo Colombo  Giovanni M. Porta  Paolo Ruffo  Alberto Guadagnini 《Hydrogeology Journal》2017,25(2):385-403

This study illustrates a procedure conducive to a preliminary risk analysis of overpressure development in sedimentary basins characterized by alternating depositional events of sandstone and shale layers. The approach rests on two key elements: (1) forward modeling of fluid flow and compaction, and (2) application of a model-complexity reduction technique based on a generalized polynomial chaos expansion (gPCE). The forward model considers a one-dimensional vertical compaction processes. The gPCE model is then used in an inverse modeling context to obtain efficient model parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification. The methodology is applied to two field settings considered in previous literature works, i.e. the Venture Field (Scotian Shelf, Canada) and the Navarin Basin (Bering Sea, Alaska, USA), relying on available porosity and pressure information for model calibration. It is found that the best result is obtained when porosity and pressure data are considered jointly in the model calibration procedure. Uncertainty propagation from unknown input parameters to model outputs, such as pore pressure vertical distribution, is investigated and quantified. This modeling strategy enables one to quantify the relative importance of key phenomena governing the feedback between sediment compaction and fluid flow processes and driving the buildup of fluid overpressure in stratified sedimentary basins characterized by the presence of low-permeability layers. The results here illustrated (1) allow for diagnosis of the critical role played by the parameters of quantitative formulations linking porosity and permeability in compacted shales and (2) provide an explicit and detailed quantification of the effects of their uncertainty in field settings.  相似文献   

Seismic performance of masonry walls retrofitted with steel reinforced grout          下载免费PDF全文

Stefano De Santis  Paolo Casadei  Gerardo De Canio  Gianmarco de Felice  Marialaura Malena  Marialuisa Mongelli  Ivan Roselli 《地震工程与结构动力学》2016,45(2):229-251

An innovative solution for the seismic protection of existing masonry structures is proposed and investigated through shake table tests on a natural scale wall assemblage. After a former test series carried out without reinforcement, the specimen was retrofitted using Steel Reinforced Grout. The strengthening system comprises horizontal strips of ultra‐high strength steel cords, externally bonded to the masonry with hydraulic lime mortar, and connectors to transversal walls, applied within the thickness of the plaster layer. In order to assess the seismic performance of the retrofitted wall, natural accelerograms were applied with increasing intensity up to failure. Test results provide a deep understanding of the effectiveness of mortar‐based composites for improving the out‐of‐plane seismic capacity of masonry walls, in comparison with traditional reinforcements with steel tie‐bars. The structural implications of the proposed solution in terms of dynamic properties and damage development under earthquake loads are also discussed.Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Sediment yield of the lower Tana River,Kenya, is insensitive to dam construction: sediment mobilization processes in a semi‐arid tropical river system          下载免费PDF全文

Naomi Geeraert  Fred Ochieng Omengo  Fredrick Tamooh  Paolo Paron  Steven Bouillon  Gerard Govers 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2015,40(13):1827-1838

Dam construction in the 1960s to 1980s significantly modified sediment supply from the Kenyan uplands to the lower Tana River. To assess the effect on suspended sediment fluxes of the Tana River, we monitored the sediment load at high temporal resolution for 1 year and complemented our data with historical information. The relationship between sediment concentration and water discharge was complex: at the onset of the wet season, discharge peaks resulted in high sediment concentrations and counterclockwise hysteresis, while towards the end of the wet season, a sediment exhaustion effect led to low concentrations despite the high discharge. The total sediment flux at Garissa (c. 250 km downstream of the lowermost dam) between June 2012 and June 2013 was 8.8 Mt yr^‐1. Comparison of current with historical fluxes indicated that dam construction had not greatly affected the annual sediment flux. We suggest that autogenic processes, namely river bed dynamics and bank erosion, mobilized large quantities of sediments stored in the alluvial plain downstream of the dams. Observations supporting the importance of autogenic processes included the absence of measurable activities of the fall‐out radionuclides ⁷Be and ¹³⁷Cs in the suspended sediment, the rapid lateral migration of the river course, and the seasonal changes in river cross‐section. Given the large stock of sediment in the alluvial valley of the Tana River, it may take centuries before the effect of damming shows up as a quantitative reduction in the sediment flux at Garissa. Many models relate the sediment load of rivers to catchment characteristics, thereby implicitly assuming that alterations in the catchment induce changes in the sediment load. Our research confirms that the response of an alluvial river to external disturbances such as land use or climate change is often indirect or non‐existent as autogenic processes overwhelm the changes in the input signal. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

A comparison of wetness indices for the prediction of observed connected saturated areas under contrasting conditions   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

Geneviève Ali  Christian Birkel  Doerthe Tetzlaff  Chris Soulsby  Jeffrey J. McDonnell  Paolo Tarolli 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2014,39(3):399-413

For lack of other widely available spatial information, topography is often used to predict water fluxes and water quality in mesoscale watersheds. Such data have however proven to be misleading in many environments where large and flat valley bottoms and/or highly conducive soil covers determine water storage and water transport mechanisms. Also, the focus is generally on the prediction of saturation areas regardless of whether they are connected to the catchment hydrographic network or rather present in isolated topographic depressions. Here soil information was coupled with terrain data towards the targeted prediction of connected saturated areas. The focus was on the 30 km² Girnock catchment (Cairngorm Mountains, northeast Scotland) and its 3 km² sub‐catchment, Bruntland Burn in which seven field surveys were done to capture actual maps of connected saturated areas in both dry and humid conditions. The 1 km² resolution UK Hydrology of Soil Types (HOST) classification was used to extract relevant, spatially variable, soil parameters. Results show that connected saturated areas were fairly well predicted by wetness indices but only in wet conditions when they covered more than 30% of the whole catchment area. Geomorphic indices including information on terrain shape, steepness, aspect, soil texture and soil depth showed potential but generally performed poorly. Indices based on soil and topographic data did not have more predictive power than those based on topographic information only: this was attributed to the coarse resolution of the HOST classification. Nevertheless, analyses provided interesting insights into the scale‐dependent water storage and transport mechanisms in both study catchments. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Paleoflood events recorded by speleothems in caves          下载免费PDF全文

Fernando Gázquez  José María Calaforra  Paolo Forti  Heather Stoll  Bassam Ghaleb  Antonio Delgado‐Huertas 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2014,39(10):1345-1353

Speleothems are usually composed of thin layers of calcite (or aragonite). However, cemented detrital materials interlayered between laminae of speleothemic carbonate have been also observed in many caves. Flowstones comprising discontinuous carbonate layers form due to flowing water films, while flood events introduce fluviokarstic sediments in caves that, on occasion, are recorded as clayey layers inside flowstones and stalagmites. This record provides a potential means of understanding the frequency of palaeofloods using cave records. In this work, we investigate the origin of this type of detrital deposit in El Soplao Cave (Northern Spain). The age of the lowest aragonite layer of a flowstone reveals that the earliest flood period occurred before 500 ka, though most of the flowstone formed between 422 +69/‐43 ka and 400 +66/‐42 ka. This suggests that the cave was periodically affected by palaeoflood events that introduced detrital sediments from the surface as a result of occasional extreme rainfall events, especially at around 400 ka. The mineralogical data enable an evolutionary model for this flowstone to be generated based on the alternation of flood events with laminar flows and carbonate layers precipitation that can be extrapolated to other caves in which detrital sediments inside speleothems have been found. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献