Discharge and nutrient uncertainty: implications for nutrient flux estimation in small streams          下载免费PDF全文

C. E. M. Lloyd  J. E. Freer  P. J. Johnes  G. Coxon  A. L. Collins 《水文研究》2016,30(1):135-152

The measurement of discharge is fundamental in nutrient load estimation. Because of our ability to monitor discharge routinely, it is generally assumed that the associated uncertainty is low. This paper challenges this preconception, arguing that discharge uncertainty should be explicitly taken into account to produce robust statistical analyses. In many studies, paired discharge and chemical datasets are used to calculate ‘true’ loads and used as the benchmark to compare with other load estimates. This paper uses two years of high frequency (daily and sub‐hourly) discharge and nutrient concentration data (nitrate‐N and total phosphorus (TP)) collected at four field sites as part of the Hampshire Avon Demonstration Test Catchment (DTC) programme. A framework for estimating observational nutrient load uncertainty was used which combined a flexible non‐parametric approach to characterising discharge uncertainty, with error modelling that allowed the incorporation of errors which were heteroscedastic and temporally correlated. The results showed that the stage–discharge relationships were non‐stationary, and observational uncertainties from ±2 to 25% were recorded when the velocity–area method was used. The variability in nutrient load estimates ranged from 1.1 to 9.9% for nitrate‐N and from 3.3 to 10% for TP when daily laboratory data were used, rising to a maximum of 9% for nitrate‐N and 83% for TP when the sensor data were used. However, the sensor data provided a better representation of the ‘true’ load as storm events are better represented temporally, posing the question: is it more beneficial to have high frequency, lower precision data or lower frequency but higher precision data streams to estimate nutrient flux responses in headwater catchments? Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Developing carbon budgets for UK agriculture, land-use, land-use change and forestry out to 2022   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Dominic Moran  Michael MacLeod  Eileen Wall  Vera Eory  Alistair McVittie  Andrew Barnes  R. M. Rees  Cairistiona F. E. Topp  Guillaume Pajot  Robin Matthews  Pete Smith  Andrew Moxey 《Climatic change》2011,105(3-4):529-553

This paper derives a notional future carbon budget for UK agriculture, land use, land use change and forestry sectors (ALULUCF). The budget is based on a bottom-up marginal abatement cost curve (MACC) derived for a range of mitigation measures for specified adoption scenarios for the years 2012, 2017 and 2022. The results indicate that in 2022 around 6.36 MtCO₂e could be abated at negative or zero cost. Furthermore, in the same year, over 17% of agricultural GHG emissions (7.85 MtCO₂e) could be abated at a cost of less than the 2022 Shadow Price of Carbon (£34 (tCO₂e)^???1). The development of robust MACCs faces a range of methodological hurdles that complicate cost-effectiveness appraisal in ALULUCF relative to other sectors. Nevertheless, the current analysis provides an initial route map of efficient measures for mitigation in UK agriculture.  相似文献   

The importance of population,climate change and CO2 plant physiological forcing in determining future global water stress     

Andrew Wiltshire  Jemma Gornall  Ben Booth  Emily Dennis  Pete Falloon  Gillian Kay  Doug McNeall  Carol McSweeney  Richard Betts 《Global Environmental Change》2013,23(5):1083-1097

Future levels of water stress depend on changes in several key factors including population, climate-change driven water availability, and a carbon dioxide physiological-forcing effect on evaporation and run-off. In this study we use an ensemble of the HadCM3 climate model forced with a range of future emissions scenarios combined with a simple water scarcity index to assess the contribution of each of these factors to the projected population living in water stress over the 21st century.Population change only scenarios increase the number of people living in water stress such that at peak global population 65% of people experience some level of water stress. Globally, the climate model ensemble projects an increase in water availability which partially offsets some of the impacts of population growth. The result is 1 billion fewer people living in water stress by the 2080s under the high end emissions scenarios than if population increased in the absence of climate change.This study highlights the important role plant-physiological forcing has on future water resources. The effect of rising CO₂ is to increase available water and to reduce the number of people living in high water stress by around 200 million compared to climate only projections. This effect is of a similar order of magnitude to climate change.  相似文献   

Genesis of late carboniferous granitoid intrusions in the Dayinsu area,West Junggar,Northwest China: evidence of an arc setting for the western CAOB     

Dayu Zhang  Feng Yuan  Noel White  Pete Hollings  Wenjiao Xiao 《International Geology Review》2017,59(9):1082-1096

ABSTRACT

The Dayinsu area is located in the northern part of the West Junggar district near the border between China and Kazakhstan and is an important component of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt (CAOB). The Dayinsu area hosts numerous granitoid plutons in Devonian–Carboniferous volcano–sedimentary strata. The older Laodayinsu and Kubei (345–330 Ma) plutons are located in the west with the younger Bayimuzha and Qianfeng (330–325 Ma) plutons in the east. The whole-rock SiO₂ contents of the four granitoid plutons range from 52.22 to 68.42 wt.% and total alkaline contents (K₂O + Na₂O) range from 4.94 to 9.16 wt.%. The granites are enriched in large ion lithophile elements and light rare earth elements with depletions in Nb, Ta, Ce, Pr, P, and Ti. The plutons are metaluminous with I-type signatures. The geochemistry of the intrusions suggests that they formed in a subduction zone setting, and subsequently underwent fractional crystallization during emplacement, with higher degrees of fractionation in the eastern sector than in the west. Similarities in the geochronology and geochemical characteristics of the granitoid plutons in Dayinsu to those in the Tabei district (west to Dayinsu area) suggest that both districts are part of the Carboniferous Tarbagatay Mountain intrusive event. The early Carboniferous (345–324 Ma) granitoid intrusions in the Tarbagatay Mountain likely formed in an island arc subduction setting during the evolution of the CAOB.  相似文献   

花岗质岩浆和矿化之间的关系:重要概念和关键特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

ZUREVINSKI Shannon  HOLLINGS Pete  周涛发  王世伟 《岩石学报》2017,33(5):1541-1553

最近对与花岗岩相关的锂、稀土金属和贱金属(例如Cu和Mo)矿产需求重新激发了人们对其成矿作用研究的兴趣。本文综述了不同类型花岗质岩石及与其相关的矿床:1)与高分异花岗岩有关的浸染状稀有金属矿化;2)热液型锡和钨矿化(如:矽卡岩型矿床);3)伟晶岩型稀有元素矿化;4)斑岩型矿化。虽然花岗岩和相关矿化作用之间(特别是斑岩系统相对于稀有金属)的联系还没有明确,但最近这些成矿系统的相关研究进展为探讨两者之间的关系提供了条件。本文重点回顾了与花岗岩相关成矿作用的主要特征,以及与不同类型矿化有关的花岗质岩浆的多样性,并论述了不同类型矿床的成矿模式。尽管长英质侵入岩浆系统复杂多样,但近来与这些矿化系统有关的研究进展可望能够作为找矿勘探的指示。地球化学特征可以揭示岩浆系统的氧化还原状态,进而可以判断斑岩系统的成矿潜力,它还可以与其他找矿勘探指标如矿物的同位素和微量元素分析联合使用。本文还讨论了通过熔融包裹体分析,研究微量元素在硅酸盐岩浆与挥发分体系中的行为。  相似文献   

Temporal variability of phosphorus fractions in Irish karst springs   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Garrett Kilroy  Catherine Coxon 《Environmental Geology》2005,47(3):421-430

Transfer pathways of phosphorus (P) from soil to surface waters are the subject of much current research because of concerns about eutrophication. However, P transfer via groundwater discharge has received little attention. Temporal P changes at eight Carboniferous limestone karst springs from two catchments in western Ireland are examined. The eight springs were sampled fortnightly between June and October 1999 and thereafter monthly until February 2000. Each sample was analysed for total P (TP), total dissolved P (TDP) and dissolved reactive P (DRP). Total P exhibited some hydrological response at all springs (e.g. increase from 45 to 107 µg l^–1) reflecting significant changes in particulate P (PP) (e.g. increase from 7 to 44 µg l^–1) and dissolved organic P (DOP) (e.g. increase from 0 to 27 µg l^–1), with DRP displaying greatest temporal stability. Greatest response to rainfall events occurred after the first major autumnal rains in September 1999, when there appeared to be dislodging of loosely bound PP and DOP, which was transported to groundwater. This response to the first autumnal rains probably reflects the hydrological switch where the catchments change from a soil moisture deficit to a soil moisture surplus situation. Daily autosampling demonstrated TP concentrations of up to 1,814 µg l^–1 due to local pollution, highlighting the need to adopt storm event driven sampling rather than discrete sampling in karstic springs. Identification and management of springs in karst areas, with associated point recharge via swallow holes, presents an urgent and demanding challenge.  相似文献   

A uranium-thorium dated late Eemian or early midlandian organic deposit from near Kilfenora between Spa and Fenit,Co. Kerry,Ireland     

Henk Heijnis  Julie Ruddock  Peter Coxon 《第四纪科学杂志》1993,8(1):31-43

This paper discusses the dating of stratigraphically important Quaternary sequences from a site near Fenit, Co. Kerry, which have been the subject of debate since they were first described by Mitchell in 1970. The overall stratigraphy of the Quaternary deposits have been investigated and detailed analyses of the organic material carried out. Pollen from biogenic sediments have been analysed and samples of peat dated using the uranium-thorium disequilibrium method. The pollen assemblages match no others previously recorded in Ireland and appear to represent a cool temperate phase following the last interglacial. The uranium-thorium dates of between 114000 and 123 000 yr BP indicate that the deposit dates from Oxygen Isotope Stage 5, possibly post-dating the last temperate stage (the Eemian Stage interglacial; Oxygen Isotope Substage 5e). The dating of this deposit and the realisation that it is not penultimate temperate stage (Gortian) in age invalidates much recent speculation on the age of the Gortian interglacial.  相似文献   

Whaling and its controversies: Examining the attitudes of Japan's youth     

Julia Bowett  Pete Hay   《Marine Policy》2009,33(5):775-783

This article presents the results of a survey examining the attitudes of young Japanese people towards whaling and its controversies. Using an online and paper-based questionnaire, 529 useable surveys were completed by Japanese students (between 15 and 26 years old) from May to December 2007. Factorial analysis, correlation and regression models were used to identify relational predictors underlying the attitudes of young Japanese people on whaling issues. An approval of whaling exists amongst the participating students, with two constructs standing out as contributing the most to this affirmation; firstly, an approval of the consumption of whalemeat by Japanese children; and secondly, an acceptance of the pro-whaling rhetoric commonly produced by the Government of Japan (GOJ) and associated media. This research represents an initial exploration into the attitudinal structures of Japanese students on whaling issues, contributing to a deeper understanding of the complexities that surround the debate.  相似文献   

Lipid biomarkers and bacterial lipase activities as indicators of organic matter and bacterial dynamics in contrasted regimes at the DYFAMED site, NW Mediterranean     

Nicolas Bourguet  Madeleine Goutx  Jean-Franois Ghiglione  Mireille Pujo-Pay  Genevive Mvel  Andr Momzikoff  Laure Mousseau  Catherine Guigue  Nicole Garcia  Patrick Raimbault  Romain Pete  Louise Oriol  Dominique Lefvre 《Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography》2009,56(18):1454-1469

This study investigated the relationships between dissolved organic matter (DOM) composition and bacterial dynamics on short time scale during spring mesotrophic (March 2003) and summer oligotrophic (June 2003) regimes, in a 0–500 m depth water column with almost no advection, at the DYFAMED site, NW Mediterranean. DOM was characterized by analyzing dissolved organic carbon (DOC), colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) and lipid class biotracers. Bacterial dynamic was assessed through the measurement of in situ bacterial lipase activity, abundance, production and bacterial community structure. We made the assumption that by coupling the ambient concentration of hydrolysable acyl-lipids with the measurement of their in situ bacterial hydrolysis rates (i.e. the free fatty acids release rate) would provide new insights about bacterial response to change in environmental conditions. The seasonal transition from spring to summer was accompanied by a significant accumulation of excess DOC (+5 μM) (ANOVA, p<0.05, n=8) in the upper layer (0–50 m). In this layer, the free fatty acids release rate to the bacterial carbon demand (BCD) ratio increased from 0.6±0.3 in March to 1.3±1.0 in June (ANOVA, p<0.05, n=8) showing that more uncoupling between the hydrolysis of the acyl-lipids and the BCD occurred during the evolution of the season, and that free fatty acids contributed to the excess DOC. The increase of lipolysis index and CDOM absorbance (from 0.24±0.17 to 0.39±0.13 and from 0.076±0.039 to 0.144±0.068; ANOVA, p<0.05, n=8, respectively), and the higher contribution of triglycerides, wax esters and phospholipids (from <5% to 12–31%) to the lipid pool reflected the change in the DOM quality. In addition to a strong increase of bacterial lipase activity per cell (51.4±29.4–418.3±290.6 Ag C cell⁻¹ h⁻¹), a significant percentage of ribotypes (39%) was different between spring and summer in the deep chlorophyll maximum (DCM) layer in particular, suggesting a shift in the bacterial community structure due to the different trophic conditions. At both seasons, in the chlorophyll layers, diel variations of DOM and bacterial parameters reflected a better bioavailability and/or DOM utilization by bacteria at night (the ratio of free fatty acids release rate to bacterial carbon demand decreased), most likely related to the zooplankton trophic behaviour. In mesotrophic conditions, such day/night pattern was driving changes in the bacterial community structure. In more oligotrophic period, diel variations in bacterial community structure were depth dependent in relation to the strong summer stratification.  相似文献   

The increase of rainfall erosivity and initial soil erosion processes due to rainfall acidification     

Ataollah Kavian  Aazam Alipour  Karim Soleimani  Leila Gholami  Pete Smith  Jesús Rodrigo‐Comino 《水文研究》2019,33(2):261-270

The drastic growth of population in highly industrialized urban areas, as well as fossil fuel use, is increasing levels of airborne pollutants and enhancing acid rain. In rapidly developing countries such as Iran, the occurrence of acid rain has also increased. Acid rain is a driving factor of erosion due to the destructive effects on biota and aggregate stability; however, little is known about its impact on specific rates of erosion at the pedon scale. Thus, the present study aimed to investigate the effect of acid rain at pH levels of 5.25, 4.25, and 3.75 for rainfall intensities of 40, 60, and 80 mm h^?1 on initial soil erosion processes under dry and saturated soil conditions using rainfall simulations. The results were compared using a two‐way ANOVA and Duncan tests and showed that initial soil erosion rates with acidic rain and non‐acidic rain under dry soil conditions were significantly different. The highest levels of soil particle loss due to splash effects in all rainfall intensities were observed with the most acidic rain (pH = 3.75), reaching maximum values of 16 g m^?2 min^?1. The lowest levels of particle losses were observed in the control plot where non‐acidic rain was used, with values ranging from 3.8 to 8.1 g m^?2 min^?1. Similarly, under saturated soil conditions, the lowest level of soil particle loss was observed in the control plot, and the highest peaks of soil loss were observed for the most acidic rains (pH = 3.75 and pH = 4.25), reaching maximum average values of 40 g m^?2 min^?1. However, for saturated soils with acidic water but with non‐acidic rain, the highest soil particle loss was observed for the control plot for all the rainfall intensities. In conclusion, acidic rain has a negative impact on soils, which can be more intense with a concomitant increase in rainfall intensity. Rapid solutions, therefore, need to be found to reduce the emission of pollutants into the air, otherwise, rainfall erosivity may drastically increase.  相似文献