内蒙古东南部地区夏季旱涝的环流特征分析及预测     

王倩  张少文  赵翠君  程玉琴 《内蒙古气象》2009,(6):10-13

主要从与内蒙古东南部地区(指赤峰市和通辽市)夏季旱涝关系密切的西太平洋副高、亚洲地区环流和蒙古冷涡三个主要的天气系统入手,分析旱涝年的环流差异。结果表明:⑴夏季蒙古冷涡偏多、副热带高压偏强和北半球盛行经向环流,是造成夏季降水偏多的主要环流形势;⑵冬季北半球极涡纬度和亚洲地区的环流指数对夏季环流形势有一定的指示意义;二者相互动态地影响了夏季旱涝,据此建立夏季旱涝预测模型。经过1995—2008年14年的实际应用,趋势准确率为85.7%。  相似文献   

1988-2018年滇池氮磷比的时空演变特征与原因解析     

高伟  程国微  严长安  陈岩 《湖泊科学》2021,33(1):64-73

氮、磷浓度是制约湖泊营养状态和生产力水平的重要环境因子,而氮磷化学计量比是湖泊生态系统的主要指标,因此,判识氮磷比变化趋势及其驱动力对湖泊生态恢复具有重要意义.研究基于19882018年连续观测数据,分析了滇池氮磷浓度和氮磷摩尔比(简称氮磷比)的时空分布演变特征;采用多元线性回归模型分别对滇池草海和外海氮磷比驱动效应进行定量解析,筛选出影响湖体氮磷比变化的潜在驱动因子.结果表明:①19882018年滇池氮磷比呈现显著的线性上升趋势,其中草海和外海氮磷比分别上升1.3和0.7 a^-1.②草海和外海分别在2008年和2004年发生了氮磷比上升突变,突变前上升归因于总氮浓度快速增加,突变后则是由于总磷浓度下降较快.③滇池的氮磷浓度变化主要是受流域氮磷输入负荷、跨流域调水、流域氮磷削减、风速和水位的综合影响,但受控因子在不同区域可能存在差异.④气温是滇池氮磷比变化的主要驱动因子,流域人为氮磷输入差异是滇池氮磷比变化的次要驱动因子.  相似文献   

Scattering pattern analysis and true-amplitude generalized Radon transform migration for acoustic transversely isotropic media with a vertical axis of symmetry     

Quan Liang  Wei Ouyang  Weijian Mao  Shijun Cheng 《Geophysical Prospecting》2020,68(4):1211-1227

In multi-parameter ray-based anisotropic migration/inversion, it is essential that we have an understanding of the scattering mechanism corresponding to parameter perturbations. Because the complex nonlinearity in the anisotropic inversion problem is intractable, the construction of true-amplitude linearized migration/inversion procedures is needed and important. By using the acoustic medium assumption for transversely isotropic media with a vertical axis of symmetry and representing the anisotropy with P-wave normal moveout velocity, Thomsen parameter δ and anelliptic parameter η, we formalize the linearized inverse scattering problem for three-dimensional pseudo-acoustic equations. Deploying the single-scattering approximation and an elliptically anisotropic background introduces a new linear integral operator that connects the discontinuous perturbation parameters with the multi-shot/multi-offset P-wave scattered data. We further apply the high-frequency asymptotic Green's function and its derivatives to the integral operator, and then the scattering pattern of each perturbation parameter can be explicitly presented. By naturally establishing a connection to generalized Radon transform, the pseudo-inverse of the integral operator can be solved by the generalized Radon transform inversion. In consideration of the structure of this pseudo-inverse operator, the computational implementation is done pointwise by shooting a fan of rays from the target imaging area towards the acquisition system. Results from two-dimensional numerical tests show amplitude-preserving images with high quality.  相似文献   

A high accurate automated first-break picking method for seismic records from high-density acquisition in areas with a complex surface     

Yinpo Xu  Cheng Yin  Xuefeng Zou  Yudong Ni  Yingjie Pan  Liangjun Xu 《Geophysical Prospecting》2020,68(4):1228-1252

As the application of high-density high-efficiency acquisition technology becomes more and more wide, the areas with complex surface conditions gradually become target exploration areas, and the first-break picking work of massive low signal-to-noise ratio data is a big challenge. The traditional method spends a lot of manpower and time to interactively pick first breaks, a large amount of interactive work affects the accuracy and efficiency of picking. In order to overcome the shortcoming that traditional methods have weak anti-noise to low signal-to-noise ratio primary wave, this paper proposes a high accurate automated first-break picking method for low signal-to-noise ratio primary wave from high-density acquisition in areas with a complex surface. Firstly, this method determines first-break time window using multi-azimuth spatial interpolation technology; then it uses the improved clustering algorithm to initially pick first breaks and then perform multi-angle comprehensive quality evaluation to first breaks according to the following sequence: ‘single trace → spread → single shot → multiple shots’ to identify the abnormal first breaks; finally it determines the optimal path through the constructed evaluation function and using the ant colony algorithm to correct abnormal first breaks. Multi-azimuth time window spatial interpolation technology provides the base for accurately picking first-break time; the clustering algorithm can effectively improve the picking accuracy rate of low signal-to-noise ratio primary waves; the multi-angle comprehensive quality evaluation can accurately and effectively eliminate abnormal first breaks; the ant colony algorithm can effectively improve the correction quality of low signal-to-noise ratio abnormal first breaks. By example analysis and comparing with the commonly used Akaike Information Criterion method, the automated first-break picking theory and technology studied in this paper has high picking accuracy and the ability to stably process low signal-to-noise ratio seismic data, has a significant effect on seismic records from high-density acquisition in areas with a complex surface and can meet the requirements of accuracy and efficiency for massive data near-surface modelling and statics calculation.  相似文献   

Loading protocols for experimental seismic qualification of members in conventional and emerging steel frames     

Cheng Fang  Yiwei Ping  Yiyi Chen 《地震工程与结构动力学》2020,49(2):155-174

Quasi-static testing is one of the most commonly used experimental methods for examining the seismic performance of structural members. However, consistent loading protocols for experimental seismic qualification of members in emerging steel frames such as self-centering braced frames (SCBFs) as well as in some conventional ones including buckling-restrained braced frames (BRBFs) are still lacking. This paper aims to propose standardized loading protocols based on time-history dynamic analysis on a series of prototype building frames, including steel SCBFs, BRBFs, and moment-resisting frames (MRFs), where both far-field and near-fault earthquakes are considered. The methodology for the development of the loading protocols involves ground motion selection and scaling, design and analysis of prototype buildings, analysis results processing, and rainflow cycle counting, together with extra justification steps. The proposed loading protocols are consistently derived based on the MCE-level seismic hazard and 84^th percentile values of key seismic demand parameters. These parameters are number of damaging cycles N_t, maximum inter-story drift θ_max, inter-story drift range Δθ_i, sum of inter-story drift range ΣΔθ_i, and residual inter-story drift θ_r. The analysis confirms the variations in these seismic demands imposed on the different structural systems under different types of ground motions, highlighting the necessity of developing separate loading protocols for the different cases. The assumptions, decisions, and judgments made during the development of the loading protocols are elaborated, and the conditions and restrictions are outlined. The rationality of the proposed loading protocols is further justified through demonstrating the cumulative distribution function and energy dissipation demand of the systems.  相似文献   

利用Himawari-8高频次监测太湖蓝藻水华动态     

王萌  郑伟  刘诚 《湖泊科学》2017,29(5):1043-1053

新一代静止气象卫星Himawari-8以其10 min/次的高观测频次,为连续动态监测蓝藻水华提供了有力的数据支持.基于太湖实地光谱测量资料,提出Himawari-8卫星资料太湖蓝藻水华动态监测方法.以2015年10月2日蓝藻水华发生过程为例,利用连续、多时次Himawari-8资料,动态监测了太湖蓝藻水华的发展变化,分析蓝藻水华的出现、发展和消失,计算蓝藻水华强度的动态变化,认识蓝藻水华程度及变化特征,估算蓝藻水华的动态变化速度.上述分析为研究蓝藻水华的生长消亡过程提供了支持.进一步探讨蓝藻水华动态变化与气象要素的关系,发现在相同的温湿条件下,风场对蓝藻水华的形成、运动和消失有直接的驱动作用.  相似文献   

南方水库季节性热分层消亡对沉积物铁和磷迁移的影响——以南宁市天雹水库为例     

朱雅  李一平  唐春燕  李荣辉  魏尧  陈刚  郭晋川  罗凡  程一鑫  潘泓哲 《湖泊科学》2021,33(4):1153-1162

为了探究我国南方地区水库季节性热分层消亡前后沉积物铁和磷的迁移规律,于2019年11月2020年1月对天雹水库多点位(浅水区和深水区)水体理化指标进行原位监测,并利用薄膜扩散梯度技术(DGT)高分辨率获取沉积物有效态铁和磷的浓度分布.结果表明:(1)天雹水库沉积物有效态Fe和P浓度分别为4.67～18.72和0.003～0.073 mg/L,其中有效态Fe浓度较太湖、鄱阳湖和洞庭湖高出一个数量级,且浅水区沉积物中有效态Fe浓度较深水区高;(2)热分层消亡过程,沉积物有效态Fe和P浓度的时空差异大,浅水区有效态Fe浓度表现为Day14Day1Day32Day54,有效态P浓度表现为Day1Day14Day32Day54,而深水区有效态Fe和P浓度变幅较小甚至呈增长趋势,归因于浅水区热分层结构对气象因子扰动的响应速率快,水体垂向混合加剧了沉积物中Fe和P的释放;(3)沉积物水界面处有效态Fe和P的交换通量分别为6.58～31.59和0.008～0.086 mg/(m2·d),均自沉积物向上覆水中不断迁移,由于浅水区的热分层消亡时间早于深水区,浅水区内源Fe2+和PO34-的释放对冬季水质恶化的贡献较大,应密切关注水库浅水区沉积物内源释放对整个库区水质的影响.  相似文献   

1958—2017年太湖蒸发量年际变化趋势及主控因子     

荆思佳  肖薇  王晶苑  郑有飞  王伟  刘强  张圳  胡诚 《湖泊科学》2022,34(5):1697-1711

湖泊蒸发对气候变化非常敏感, 是水文循环响应气候变化的指示因子, 因此研究湖泊蒸发的控制因素, 对于理解区域水文循环有重要意义. 本文利用太湖中尺度涡度通量网避风港站观测数据校正JRA-55再分析资料, 驱动CLM4.0-LISSS模型, 并利用2012—2017年涡度相关通量数据和湖表面温度数据检验模型模拟蒸发结果, 验证了该模型在太湖的适用性; 估算了1958—2017年间太湖的湖面蒸发量, 并利用Manner-Kendall趋势检验分析了湖面蒸发的变化趋势, 寻找太湖实际蒸发的年际变化的主控因子. 结果如下: 校正后的JRA-55再分析资料模拟的太湖蒸发与观测值之间存在季节偏差, 但是季节偏差在年尺度上相互抵消, 再分析资料可用于年际尺度太湖蒸发变化的模拟; 1958—2017年间太湖蒸发量以1977年为界, 先下降(-3.6 mm/a), 后增加(2.3 mm/a); 多元逐步回归结果表明, 向下的短波辐射是太湖1958—2017年间太湖蒸发变化的主控因子, 向下的长波辐射、气温、比湿也对湖泊蒸发年际变化有一定影响, 但是风速对蒸发量的年际变化影响不大.  相似文献   

鄱阳湖汇流顶托对长江汉口水位影响的量化分析     

张明月  邓鹏鑫  王磊之  邴建平  张冬冬  程小翠 《湖泊科学》2022,34(5):1712-1722

为定量评估汇流顶托对水位变化的影响, 本文从水文过程仿真及顶托响应评价入手, 提出了一种汇流顶托对水位影响的量化分析方法, 并以长江汉口江段为例, 开展了鄱阳湖汇流顶托对长江汉口江段水位影响的量化评价, 结果表明: 改进提出的长江汉口江段水文仿真模型, 经参数优选后确定性系数可达0.98以上, 总量相对误差绝对值在3%以内, 较好地再现了水文变化过程; 通过响应指数定义及水文过程模拟, 研制了汉口多值型水位流量关系响应特征曲线, 揭示了鄱阳湖与长江水位变化的关联性机制; 经2016和2020年洪水实例分析, 汉口江段长历时高洪水位主要受长江来水及鄱阳湖汇流顶托共同驱动, 二者合力贡献可达83.3%以上, 其中鄱阳湖汇流顶托贡献率在35%左右. 其余因素(如区间洪水、沿江排涝等)亦助推高洪水位形成, 部分时段贡献可达近34.4%. 本文提出的顶托量化分析方法, 可定量评估因顶托效应引起的水位变化, 为解析河段高洪水位成因机制提供了有效的技术支撑.  相似文献   

基于长时间序列(1975—2020年)生态耗水的岱海动态生态需水分析     

马佳丽  刘东伟  王杰  程英楠  刘华民  王立新 《湖泊科学》2022,34(1):207-218

生态需水是湖泊生态系统的重要指标,维持着湖泊生态系统的良性循环.以内蒙古中部半干旱湖泊岱海为研究对象,对湖泊动态生态需水进行分析.本研究在遥感和气象数据的基础上,获得1975-2020年长时间序列高精度水文要素数据,分析岱海水文要素时空演变规律;通过天然生态水深分析法、水深经验频率分析法和湖泊形态分析法分析岱海的水深随面积变化的关键水深;构建基于生态耗水规律的湖泊生态需水模型,计算自然状态下岱海生态需水动态变化范围.研究结果如下:岱海地区6-9月为丰水期,10月至次年5月为枯水期;45 a以来岱海水面面积呈显著下降趋势,近年来下降速率减缓;枯水期岱海适宜生态水深为8.72~9.92 m,丰水期为9.40~10.69 m,适宜生态需水量为5.62亿~7.71亿m³,适宜湖面面积为70.92~84.77 km².本文构建了长时间序列气候水文数据库,确定岱海动态生态需水范围可以实现对湖泊生态健康的实时监测,为相关规划与管理提供科学依据及可操作性指导,从而为岱海湖泊治理提供理论参考.  相似文献