Bayesian posterior predictive return levels for environmental extremes     

Lee?FawcettEmail author  Amy?C.?Green 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2018,32(8):2233-2252

A key aim of most extreme value analyses is the estimation of the r-year return level; the wind speed, or sea-surge, or rainfall level (for example), we might expect to see once (on average) every r years. There are compelling arguments for working within the Bayesian setting here, not least the natural extension to prediction via the posterior predictive distribution. Indeed, for practitioners the posterior predictive return level has been cited as perhaps the most useful point summary from a Bayesian analysis of extremes, and yet little is known of the properties of this statistic. In this paper, we attempt to assess the performance of predictive return levels relative to their estimative counterparts obtained directly from the return level posterior distribution; in particular, we make comparisons with the return level posterior mean, mode and 95% credible upper bound. Differences between the predictive return level and standard summaries from the return level posterior distribution, for wind speed extremes observed in the UK, motivates this work. A large scale simulation study then reveals the superiority of the predictive return level over the other posterior summaries in many cases of practical interest.  相似文献   

Optimum size and density of surface grid arrays for retrieving accurate shear-tensile fracturing of microearthquakes     

Yi Ren  Yongtao Gao  Shunchuan Wu  Václav Vavryčuk 《Geophysical Prospecting》2020,68(8):2347-2360

Surface arrays became an important tool for monitoring the induced seismicity in hydraulic fracturing experiments and for assessing the impact of fluid injection on the fracturing process of microearthquakes. The layout of sensors plays a key role in this task because it controls the accuracy of event locations and retrieved seismic moment tensors. We simulate various configurations of grid sensor arrays characterized by a different number of sensors, array span, sensor spacing, depth of sources and various shear/tensile source mechanisms of events. The moment tensor inversion is carried out using synthetically calculated P-wave amplitudes with added random noise. A bias in the solutions is evaluated by errors in the double-couple percentage of inverted moment tensors because the double-couple errors inform us about the sensitivity of the network to detect the shear/tensile fracturing mode of induced microearthquakes. The results show that the accuracy of the double-couple percentage is mostly controlled by the offset-to-depth ratio R defined as the ratio of half of the network size to the event depth. The optimum value of R is in the range of 0.75–1.5 irrespective of the type of the focal mechanism. If 121 (11 × 11) sensors are distributed in a regular grid and recorded data are characterized by a 10% random noise, the double-couple error is less than 6%. This error increases, if R is not optimum or if the number of sensors is reduced. However, even sparse arrays with 49 (7 × 7) or 16 (4 × 4) sensors can yield a reasonable accuracy, provided the surface grid arrays are designed to have an optimum size.  相似文献   

Use of Mosses as Biomonitors of Major,Minor and Trace Element Deposition Around the Largest Thermal Power Plant in Serbia          下载免费PDF全文

Mirjana Ćujić  Snežana Dragović  Marko Sabovljević  Latinka Slavković‐Beškoski  Milan Kilibarda  Jelena Savović  Antonije Onjia 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2014,42(1):5-11

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Rebuttal to the comment by Malhotra and Strom on “Constraints on the source of lunar cataclysm impactors”     

Matija ?uk  Brett J. Gladman 《Icarus》2011,216(1):363-365

?uk et al. (?uk, M. Gladman, B.J., Stewart, S.T. [2010]. Icarus 207 590-594) concluded that the the lunar cataclysm (late heavy bombardment) was recorded in lunar Imbrian era craters, and that their size distribution is different from that of main belt asteroids (which may have been the dominant pre-Imbrian impactors). This result would likely preclude the asteroid belt as the direct source of lunar cataclysm impactors. Malhotra and Strom (Malhotra, R., Strom, R.G. [2011]. Icarus) maintain that the lunar impactor population in the Imbrian era was the same as in Nectarian and pre-Nectarian periods, and this population had a size distribution identical to that of main belt asteroids. In support of this claim, they present an Imbrian size distribution made from two data sets published by Wilhelms et al. (Wilhelms, D.E., Oberbeck, V.R., Aggarwal, H.R. [1978]. Proc. Lunar Sci. Conf. 9, 3735-3762). However, these two data sets cannot be simply combined as they represent areas of different ages and therefore crater densities. Malhotra and Strom (Malhotra, R., Strom, R.G. [2011]. Icarus) differ with the main conclusion of Wilhelms et al. (Wilhelms, D.E., Oberbeck, V.R., Aggarwal, H.R. [1978]. Proc. Lunar Sci. Conf. 9, 3735-3762) that the Nectarian and Imbrian crater size distributions were different. We conclude that the available data indicate that the lunar Imbrian-era impactors had a different size distribution from the older ones, with the Imbrian impactor distribution being significantly richer in small impactors than that of older lunar impactors or current main-belt asteroids.  相似文献   

Influence of afforestation on water regime in Jizera Catchments,Czech Republic     

Renata J. Romanowicz  Alena Kulasová  Jana Ředinová  Sárka D. Blazková 《Acta Geophysica》2012,60(4):1120-1142

This paper studies the influence of afforestation on the water regime in two catchments in the Jizera Mountains that are similar in size and altitude but have different afforestation pattern. In this paper a range of different modelling tools is used to establish whether the differences in catchment water regime can be quantified and attributed to differences in catchment characteristics. Frequency analysis of low and high flows and a number and duration of flows over a threshold value are used to look for the differences in flow regime in both catchments. Low flow conditions are modelled using the Wittenberg nonlinear store approach. A rainfall-runoff process is modelled using a Data Based Mechanistic approach. The results indicate that the differences in the catchment response to external climatic factors outweigh the influence of land use apart from the low flows, where the changes in the response might be attributed to afforestation.  相似文献   

The European Marine Strategy: Contribution and challenges from a Portuguese perspective     

Catarina Frazão Santos  Zara Gonçalves Teixeira  João Janeiro  Renata Sousa Gonçalves  Rhema Bjorkland  Michael Orbach 《Marine Policy》2012

The EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) is considered to be the environmental pillar of the EU Integrated Maritime Policy, establishing a framework within which member states must take the necessary measures to achieve, or maintain, good environmental status in their marine waters. This study presents Portugal's contributions to the Directive development, describes the Portuguese institutional framework within the MSFD and, finally, highlights the opportunities and threats to the success of the MSFD implementation in Portugal. The latter entails an analysis of the Directive's long term adequacy in its link to (1) marine spatial planning, (2) climate change and (3) the economic/financial crisis. With one of Europe's largest exclusive economic zones. Portugal's interest in the MSFD is paramount. Efforts towards the approval of the final document were assured during the Portuguese presidency of the European Council of Ministers, in 2007, while chairing a thorough discussion between the Council and the European Parliament. In the Portuguese context, the Directive implementation will rely on the Water Institute as the authoritative entity, which will be responsible for coordinating all necessary efforts at the national level. The success of such process depends on a close cooperation among the institutions involved as well as on how approved measures account for long term issues. In addition, the MSFD implementation must be built on lessons learned within the Water Framework Directive, in order to be successful. Although it poses a methodological challenge to Portugal, the MSFD implementation is expected to contribute significantly to the improvement of coastal/marine conservation and management at the national level.  相似文献   

Moment tensor decompositions revisited   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

Václav Vavryčuk 《Journal of Seismology》2015,19(1):231-252

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Petrological and experimental evidence for differentiation of water-rich magmas beneath St. Kitts,Lesser Antilles     

Elena?MelekhovaEmail author  Jon?Blundy  Rita?Martin  Richard?Arculus  Michel?Pichavant 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2017,172(11-12):98

St. Kitts lies in the northern Lesser Antilles, a subduction-related intraoceanic volcanic arc known for its magmatic diversity and unusually abundant cognate xenoliths. We combine the geochemistry of xenoliths, melt inclusions and lavas with high pressure–temperature experiments to explore magma differentiation processes beneath St. Kitts. Lavas range from basalt to rhyolite, with predominant andesites and basaltic andesites. Xenoliths, dominated by calcic plagioclase and amphibole, typically in reaction relationship with pyroxenes and olivine, can be divided into plutonic and cumulate varieties based on mineral textures and compositions. Cumulate varieties, formed primarily by the accumulation of liquidus phases, comprise ensembles that represent instantaneous solid compositions from one or more magma batches; plutonic varieties have mineralogy and textures consistent with protracted solidification of magmatic mush. Mineral chemistry in lavas and xenoliths is subtly different. For example, plagioclase with unusually high anorthite content (An_≤100) occurs in some plutonic xenoliths, whereas the most calcic plagioclase in cumulate xenoliths and lavas are An₉₇ and An₉₅, respectively. Fluid-saturated, equilibrium crystallisation experiments were performed on a St. Kitts basaltic andesite, with three different fluid compositions (XH₂O = 1.0, 0.66 and 0.33) at 2.4 kbar, 950–1025 °C, and fO₂ = NNO ? 0.6 to NNO + 1.2 log units. Experiments reproduce lava liquid lines of descent and many xenolith assemblages, but fail to match xenolith and lava phenocryst mineral compositions, notably the very An-rich plagioclase. The strong positive correlation between experimentally determined plagioclase-melt Kd_Ca–Na and dissolved H₂O in the melt, together with the occurrence of Al-rich mafic lavas, suggests that parental magmas were water-rich (> 9 wt% H₂O) basaltic andesites that crystallised over a wide pressure range (1.5–6 kbar). Comparison of experimental and natural (lava, xenolith) mafic mineral composition reveals that whereas olivine in lavas is predominantly primocrysts precipitated at low-pressure, pyroxenes and spinel are predominantly xenocrysts formed by disaggregation of plutonic mushes. Overall, St. Kitts xenoliths and lavas testify to mid-crustal differentiation of low-MgO basalt and basaltic andesite magmas within a trans-crustal, magmatic mush system. Lower crustal ultramafic cumulates that relate parental low-MgO basalts to primary, mantle -derived melts are absent on St. Kitts.  相似文献   

Thermodynamic controls on element partitioning between titanomagnetite and andesitic–dacitic silicate melts     

R.?H.?SievwrightEmail authorView author&#;s OrcID profile  J.?J.?Wilkinson  H.?St.?C.?O’Neill  A.?J.?Berry 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2017,172(8):62

Titanomagnetite–melt partitioning of Mg, Mn, Al, Ti, Sc, V, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Ga, Zr, Nb, Mo, Hf and Ta was investigated experimentally as a function of oxygen fugacity (fO₂) and temperature (T) in an andesitic–dacitic bulk-chemical compositional range. In these bulk systems, at constant T, there are strong increases in the titanomagnetite–melt partitioning of the divalent cations (Mg²⁺, Mn²⁺, Co²⁺, Ni²⁺, Zn²⁺) and Cu²⁺/Cu⁺ with increasing fO₂ between 0.2 and 3.7 log units above the fayalite–magnetite–quartz buffer. This is attributed to a coupling between magnetite crystallisation and melt composition. Although melt structure has been invoked to explain the patterns of mineral–melt partitioning of divalent cations, a more rigorous justification of magnetite–melt partitioning can be derived from thermodynamic principles, which accounts for much of the supposed influence ascribed to melt structure. The presence of magnetite-rich spinel in equilibrium with melt over a range of fO₂ implies a reciprocal relationship between a(Fe²⁺O) and a(Fe³⁺O_1.5) in the melt. We show that this relationship accounts for the observed dependence of titanomagnetite–melt partitioning of divalent cations with fO₂ in magnetite-rich spinel. As a result of this, titanomagnetite–melt partitioning of divalent cations is indirectly sensitive to changes in fO₂ in silicic, but less so in mafic bulk systems.  相似文献   

Cation substitution in synthetic meridianiite (MgSO<Subscript>4</Subscript>·11H<Subscript>2</Subscript>O) I: X-ray powder diffraction analysis of quenched polycrystalline aggregates     

A.?Dominic?FortesEmail author  Frank?Browning  Ian?G.?Wood 《Physics and Chemistry of Minerals》2012,39(5):419-441

Meridianiite, MgSO₄·11H₂O, is the most highly hydrated phase in the binary MgSO₄–H₂O system. Lower hydrates in the MgSO₄–H₂O system have end-member analogues containing alternative divalent metal cations (Ni²⁺, Zn²⁺, Mn²⁺, Cu²⁺, Fe²⁺, and Co²⁺) and exhibit extensive solid solution with MgSO₄ and with one another, but no other undecahydrate is known. We have prepared aqueous MgSO₄ solutions doped with these other cations in proportions up to and including the pure end-members. These liquids have been solidified into fine-grained polycrystalline blocks of metal sulfate hydrate + ice by rapid quenching in liquid nitrogen. The solid products have been characterised by X-ray powder diffraction, and the onset of partial melting has been quantified using a thermal probe. We have established that of the seven end-member metal sulfates studied, only MgSO₄ forms an undecahydrate; ZnSO₄ forms an orthorhombic heptahydrate (synthetic goslarite), MnSO₄, FeSO₄, and CoSO₄ form monoclinic heptahydrates (syn. mallardite, melanterite, bieberite, respectively), and CuSO₄ crystallises as the well-known triclinic pentahydrate (syn. chalcanthite). NiSO₄ forms a new hydrate which has been indexed with a triclinic unit cell of dimensions a = 6.1275(1) Å, b = 6.8628(1) Å, c = 12.6318(2) Å, α = 92.904(2)°, β = 97.678(2)°, and γ = 96.618(2)°. The unit-cell volume of this crystal, V = 521.74(1) ų, is consistent with it being an octahydrate, NiSO₄·8H₂O. Further analysis of doped specimens has shown that synthetic meridianiite is able to accommodate significant quantities of foreign cations in its structure; of the order 50 mol. % Co²⁺ or Mn²⁺, 20–30 mol. % Ni²⁺ or Zn²⁺, but less than 10 mol. % of Cu²⁺ or Fe²⁺. In three of the systems we examined, an ‘intermediate’ phase occurred that differed in hydration state both from the Mg-bearing meridianiite end-member and the pure dopant end-member hydrate. In the case of CuSO₄, we observed a melanterite-structured heptahydrate at Cu/(Cu + Mg) = 0.5, which we identify as synthetic alpersite [(Mg_0.5Cu_0.5)SO₄·7H₂O)]. In the NiSO₄- and ZnSO₄-doped systems we characterised an entirely new hydrate which could also be identified to a lesser degree in the CuSO₄- and the FeSO₄-doped systems. The Ni-doped substance has been indexed with a monoclinic unit-cell of dimensions a = 6.7488(2) Å, b = 11.9613(4) Å, c = 14.6321(5) Å, and β = 95.047(3)°, systematic absences being indicative of space-group P2₁/c with Z = 4. The unit-cell volume, V = 1,176.59(5) ų, is consistent with it being an enneahydrate [i.e. (Mg_0.5Ni_0.5)SO₄·9H₂O)]. Similarly, the new Zn-bearing enneahydrate has refined unit cell dimensions of a = 6.7555(3) Å, b = 11.9834(5) Å, c = 14.6666(8) Å, β = 95.020(4)°, V = 1,182.77(7) ų, and the new Fe-bearing enneahydrate has refined unit cell dimensions of a = 6.7726(3) Å, b = 12.0077(3) Å, c = 14.6920(5) Å, β = 95.037(3)°, and V = 1,190.20(6) ų. The observation that synthetic meridianiite can form in the presence of, and accommodate significant quantities of other ions increases the likelihood that this mineral will occur naturally on Mars—and elsewhere in the outer solar system—in metalliferous brines.  相似文献