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To reduce flooding risks and improve urban drainage management, there is a need to increase the forecasting accuracy for rainfall models on small typical urban time and space scales. Increased rainfall forecasting accuracy will in turn improve runoff prediction and thus, prevent flooding hazards, decrease pollution discharge through combined sewers, increase waste water treatment efficiency, etc. For this purpose, we analyzed the parameters of a two-dimensional stochastic advection-diffusion model including a Fourier domain method and an extended Kalman filter algorithm for investigation of motion, shape, size, and intensity distribution of convective rainfall. The resulting set of model parameters (advective velocity, apparent turbulent diffusion, and development/decay of rainfall rate) is used to study convective rainfall variability. It appears that the speed at which the rainfall cell is advected is not dependent on the cell development stage or apparent diffusion. Instead, there is a dependence between the source/sink term and apparent diffusion. This can be explained by the turbulent updraft of warm air which results in large rainfall intensity increase. This strong turbulence results in larger diffusion (and vice versa). The behavior of the model parameters is therefore physically explainable and relevant. The results can be used as first choice of parameter values when modeling convective rainfall over ungaged areas. 相似文献
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As seismic data quality improves, time‐lapse seismic data is increasingly being called upon to interpret and predict changes during reservoir development and production. Since pressure change is a major component of reservoir change during production, a thorough understanding of the influence of pore pressure on seismic velocity is critical. Laboratory measurements show that differential pressure (overburden minus fluid pressure) does not adequately determine the actual reservoir conditions. Changes in fluid pressure are found to have an additional effect on the physical properties of rocks. The effective‐stress coefficient n is used to quantify the effect of pore pressure compared to confining pressure on rock properties. However, the current practice in time‐lapse feasibility studies, reservoir‐pressure inversion and pore‐pressure prediction is to assume that n= 1. Laboratory measurements, reported in both this and previous research show that n can be significantly less than unity for low‐porosity rocks and that it varies with porosity, rock texture and wave type. We report the results of ultrasonic experiments to estimate n for low‐porosity sandstones with and without microcracks. Our results show that, for P‐waves, n is as low as 0.4 at a differential pressure of 20 MPa (about 3000 psi) for a low‐porosity sandstone. Thus, in pore‐pressure inversion, an assumption of n= 1 would lead to a 150% underestimation of the pore pressure. Comparison of the effective‐stress coefficient for fractured and unfractured samples suggests that the presence of microfractures increases the sensitivity of P‐wave velocity to pore pressure, and therefore the effective‐stress coefficient. Our results show that the effective‐stress coefficient decreases with the differential pressure, with a higher differential pressure resulting in a lower effective‐stress coefficient. While the effective‐stress coefficient for P‐wave velocity can be significantly less than unity, it is close to one for S‐waves. 相似文献
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Sonja Zink Ronny Schoenberg Michael Staubwasser 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》2010,74(20):5729-125
The redox-sensitive stable isotope geochemistry of chromium bears the potential to monitor the attenuation of chromate pollution and to investigate changes in environmental conditions in the present and the past. The use of stable Cr isotope data as a geo-environmental tracer, however, necessitates an understanding of the reaction kinetics and Cr fractionation behaviour during redox transition and isotope exchange. Here, we report stable chromium isotope fractionation data for Cr(VI) reduction, Cr(III) oxidation and isotopic exchange between soluble Cr(III) and Cr(VI) in aqueous media. The reduction of Cr(VI) to Cr(III) with H2O2 under strongly acidic conditions shows a near-equilibrium isotope fractionation of Δ53/52Cr(Cr(III)-Cr(VI)) of −3.54 ± 0.35‰. At pH neutrality, however, the reduction experiments show a kinetic isotope fractionation Δ53/52Cr(Cr(III)-Cr(VI)) of −5‰ for the extent of reduction of up to 85% of the chromium. The oxidation of Cr(III) to Cr(VI) in alkaline media, using H2O2 as the oxidant, cannot be explained by a single, unidirectional reaction. Our experiments indicate that the involvement of the unstable intermediates Cr(IV) and Cr(V) and their disproportionation during redox reactions between Cr(III) and Cr(VI) influence the overall fractionation factor, depending on the prevailing pH conditions and the reaction rates. No detectable isotope exchange between soluble Cr(VI) and Cr(III) species at pH values of 5.5 and 7 was revealed over a timescale of days to weeks. This means that, at least within such a time frame, the isotopic composition of Cr(VI) in a natural system will not be influenced by equilibration with any Cr(III) and thus reveal the true extent of reduction, given that the Cr isotope composition of the source Cr(VI) and the fractionation factor for the prevailing conditions are known. 相似文献
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Several drill cores were obtained from a laminated, actively forming flowstone from a shallow cave in Austria. Highly resolved petrographic and geochemical analyses combined with multi‐annual cave monitoring reveal a distinct sensitivity of flowstone growth and composition to late Holocene meteoric precipitation. The regular sub‐millimetre‐scale lamination consists of thicker, translucent laminae and thinner (organic) inclusion‐rich laminae. There is also a macroscopic millimetre‐scale banding of darker and lighter bands comprising several laminae. Stable isotope analyses of drill cores and modern calcite precipitates show a pronounced positive covariation of δ13C and δ18O values indicative of kinetic isotope effects. Comparing the isotope values with petrography shows gradual changes across several of the annual laminae, i.e. changes of several per mille on a multi‐annual to decadal timescale. The stable isotope and trace‐element composition, as well as the flowstone petrography, are mainly controlled by the variable drip‐water discharge controlling the water‐film thickness and water residence time on the flowstone surface and consequently the intensity of CO2‐degassing, kinetic isotope enrichment and concomitant calcite precipitation. Drill core PFU6 provides an isotope record of the last ca. 3000 years at near‐annual resolution. A distinct phase of low C and O isotope values – interpreted as increased discharge and hence higher meteoric precipitation – occurred from ca. 300 to 140 a b2k (second half of the Little Ice Age) and another wet interval occurred around 700 a, corresponding to reported Medieval glacier advances. The Roman Warm Period was also dominated by relatively wet conditions, although significant decadal variability prevailed. Increased precipitation further characterized the intervals from ca. 2480 to 2430 and 2950 to 2770 a. Dry conditions persisted during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, although this trend towards reduced precipitation started earlier. The highest C isotope values of the last 2 ka are recorded around 750 a and another dry phase is centred at 1480 a. This new record shows that inter‐annual to decadal oscillations are a dominant mode of variation during the last 3 ka in the Alps. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
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Regional administrations present themselves in many different ways on the internet. A content analysis of regional websites in the Netherlands and Northwest Germany revealed this diversity. Geographical factors can partly explain these differences. Mapping the five principal aspects of the geographical representations of regional administrations revealed some spatial clusters. These regional representations are also linked to the geographical characteristics of regions. Competitive mid-sized regions focus more on economic items. Different types of peripheries vary much more in how they present themselves on the internet. The way regions present themselves is linked to the polarising influence of regional competition, but there is still considerable freedom for regions to present a distinct region image. 相似文献
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Dissolved silica (DSi) is an important control on algae abundance and species composition both in freshwater and marine ecosystems. Although continental and global budgets for DSi exist, understanding of the spatial variability of DSi cycles needs to be improved on those scales. In this study, an empirical model of DSi mobilization into river systems is extrapolated on a 1.4 km2 grid to North America. To analyze changes in DSi mobilization patterns, DSi mobilization is estimated regionally for present day runoff and a runoff projection ensemble for the period 2081–2100. The model predicts present day annual DSi fluxes for the monitored area within 6% of the calculated fluxes. Possible biases by processes not directly represented by applied geodata are discussed (e.g. land use and ecosystem influences) and found to be only minor on the regional scale. Uncertainty of the results is discussed based on a literature review. The projected DSi-mobilization rates at high latitudes for the present day conditions may be overestimated. However, the projected change rate for the period 2081–2100 might even be underestimated, due to e.g. increased thawing in certain permafrost regions, which was not included in the model. 相似文献
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Accidental marine pollution can have major ecological and economic consequences at national and trans-national levels, and there is a need to achieve a better integration of science into actual decision-making systems to support prevention measures, response systems and management activities.. Effective linking mechanisms between R&D and end-users/policy stakeholders are required to ensure the relevance of R&D, effective uptake of R&D outputs, and suitable policy development. Different issues and barriers to effectively link accidental marine pollution R&D effort to end-users concerns and needs and to develop a trans-national strategic approach are identified, analysed, and further developed into recommendations. 相似文献
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Abstract Soil erosion vulnerability and extreme rainfall characteristics over the Mediterranean semi-arid region of Tunisia are crucial input for estimation of siltation rate in artificial reservoirs. A comprehensive high-resolution database on erosive rainfall, together with siltation records for 28 small reservoirs, were analysed for this region, the Tunisian Dorsal (the easternmost part of the Atlas Mountains). The general life-span of these reservoirs is only about 14 years. Depending on the soil degradation in the different catchments, the corresponding reservoirs display a wide range of soil erosion rates. The average soil loss was 14.5 t ha?1 year?1 but some catchments display values of up to 36.4 t ha?1 year?1. The maximum 15-min duration rainfall intensity was used to determine the spatial distribution of rainfall erosivity. The northwestern parts of the Tunisian Dorsal display the most extreme rainfall erosivity. Spatial erosion patterns are to some extent similar; however, they vary greatly according to their location in the “soil degradation cycle”. This cycle determines the soil particle delivery potential of the catchment. In general, the northwestern parts of the Dorsal display modest soil erosion patterns due to the already severely degraded soil structure. Here, the soil surface is often the original bedrock. However, the greatest soil erosion occurs in the mid-eastern parts of the Dorsal, which represents the “degradation front”. The latter corresponds to the area with highest erosion, which is continuously progressing westward in the Dorsal. The large variation between the erosive rainfall events and the annual soil loss rates was explained by two important factors. The first relates to the soil degradation cycle. The second factor corresponds to the degradation front with the highest soil loss rates. At present this front is located at 300 m altitude and appears to be moving along an 80-km westward path starting from the east coast. A better understanding of the above can be used to better manage soils and soil covers in the Tunisian Dorsal area and, eventually, to decrease the soil erosion and reservoir siltation risk. Citation Jebari, S., Berndtsson, R., Bahri, A. & Boufaroua, M. (2010) Spatial soil loss risk and reservoir siltation in semi-arid Tunisia. Hydrol. Sci. J. 55(1), 121–137. 相似文献
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