DOWNSCALING FORECAST OF MONTHLY PRECIPITATION OVER GUANGXI BASED ON BP NEURAL NETWORK MODEL     

何慧  金龙  覃志年  袁丽军 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2007,13(1):97-100

Variables fields such as enstrophy, meridional-wind and zonal-wind variables are derived from monthly 500 hPa geopotential height anomalous fields. In this work, we select original predictors from monthly 500-hPa geopotential height anomalous fields and their variables in June of 1958 - 2001, and determine comprehensive predictors by conducting empirical orthogonal function (EOF) respectively with the original predictors. A downscaling forecast model based on the back propagation (BP) neural network is built by use of the comprehensive predictors to predict the monthly precipitation in June over Guangxi with the monthly dynamic extended range forecast products. For comparison, we also build another BP neural network model with the same predictands by using the former comprehensive predictors selected from 500-hPa geopotential height anomalous fields in May to December of 1957 - 2000 and January to April of 1958 - 2001. The two models are tested and results show that the precision of superposition of the downscaling model is better than that of the one based on former comprehensive predictors, but the prediction accuracy of the downscaling model depends on the output of monthly dynamic extended range forecast.  相似文献   

驻马店极端气温分析     

梅新建  孙菀  魏慧娟  张建锋  王娟  赵龙 《河南气象》2007,(Z1)

利用驻马店10个站气象资料,分析了极端温度的时间变化特征、高温天气与6-8月降水量之间的关系和极端晴热高温、极端湿热高温天气形成的天气背景及影响因子,确定了高温出现的前期预报指标。  相似文献   

基于数据融合的SRTM数据空洞填补方法   总被引：7，自引：0，他引：7  

阚瑷珂  朱利东  张瑞军  郑文锋  银正彤  王绪本  王成善 《地理空间信息》2007,5(3):62-64

总结国内外对SRTM数据空洞的填补方法,指出基于内插的填补方法无法满足大区域SRTM数据处理的需求。提出在内插的基础上进行数据融合的空洞填补方法,并以实例验证了该方法是一种获取完整地形数据的有效途径。  相似文献   

Exploring the effects of urban and agricultural land use on surface water chemistry,across a regional watershed,using multivariate statistics     

M.L. Fitzpatrick  D.T. Long  B.C. Pijanowski 《Applied Geochemistry》2007

In this paper, the influence of anthropogenic activity on surface water chemistry is investigated. Base flow samples from dominant land use streams in the Muskegon River Watershed, Michigan, USA, were analyzed for nutrients, major ions, and trace elements. Principal component and hierarchical cluster analysis were used to investigate the processes controlling the effects of land use on the biogeochemistry of streams in this Watershed. Biogeochemical fingerprints of land use were developed based on the results of the cluster analysis. Spider diagrams which referenced the natural environment aided the identification of the individual contributions of urban and agricultural land uses to surface water chemistry. The biogeochemical fingerprints quantified support previous findings (Urb: Na, K, Cl/Ag: Ca, Mg) and produced new insights into the effects of land use on the behavior of nutrients (Ag: N and Urb: N, P) and trace elements (Urb: V, Cr, Co, Cu, Se, Rb, Mo, Sr, Cd, Pb and Ba/Ag: U and As). The higher correlations of urban than agricultural land uses with nutrients, specifically P, were not expected and may reflect the effects of fertilization and wastewater or the season the samples were taken. More study in different geologic and urban settings is needed to help refine these fingerprints, but it is becoming apparent that despite obscuring factors, land use produces consistent, quantifiable associations between biogeochemical analytes.  相似文献   

深水浊积砂体的成因机理及特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

陈海洲  李瑞军 《上海国土资源》2007,4(3):10-13

深水浊积砂体及其体系域以其重要的理论意义和作为油气储集层的经济价值始终是沉积地质学研究的主要领域之一。深水浊积砂体是在深水环境下在重力作用下所形成的一个连续过程的组成部分。这个连续部分可以分为五类:泥石流、颗粒流、流体化沉积物流、浊流和滑塌。由浊流过程形成的深水环境下的浊积砂体,具有海相浊积体和湖相浊积体的特征,与海(湖)平面的下隆低水位有关。  相似文献   

南海夏季风爆发早晚的越赤道气流特征   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

覃志年  金龙何慧 《广西气象》2007,28(3):8-11

根据国家气候中心提供的南海夏季风爆发期典型偏早（1966、1972、1996、2000、2001年）和偏晚年份（1970、1973、1987、1989、1991年）,利用ECMW F再分析1-5月逐日经向风资料,计算5个通道越赤道气流和越赤道乞流总量的距平值;探讨越赤道气流与南海夏季风爆发早晚的关系与特征。为预测南海夏季风爆发早晚提供判据。  相似文献   

动力延伸预报产品在广西月降水预报中的应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

何慧金龙  覃志年陈见 《应用气象学报》2007,18(5):727-731

利用1958—2005年NCEP/NCAR再分析资料和2003—2005年国家气候中心的动力延伸预报产品, 运用自然正交函数展开 (EOF) 求取预报关键区内的空间特征向量及其时间系数, 结合相似离度方法查找与预报月份相似的个例, 进而作出广西月降水量预报。独立样本试验证明, 利用动力延伸预报产品制作的区域月降水预报比利用前期实况高度距平场相关区域制作的预报效果更好。  相似文献   

滇西地区小地震群特征     

龙晓帆  王绍晋  陈立德  张喜玲  陈燕  罗淑进 《华北地震科学》1998,16(1):30-35

根据滇西地区（23°．8－28°N;97°．0－101°．5E）1966年1月－1996年7月89个ML≤4．7的小地震震群资料分别总结出滇西地区H,K,U,η,b,△M参数的判别指标和地区特征。着重讨论了小地震震群与云南及邻区中强震关系,以及综合利用上述参数尝试预报未来中强震。  相似文献   

四湖排水系统运行规划优化模型   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

龙子泉  欧光华 《水科学进展》1998,9(3):237-244

分析了四湖排水系统的运行特点,应用大系统理论对系统进行了递阶分析并确定了该系统运行规划的NLP/DP/LP优化模型结构。在确定系统运行规则的基础上,分层建立了系统运行规划优化模型。  相似文献   

High-resolution ion-microprobe measurement of lead isotopes: Variations within single zircons from Lac Seul,northwestern Ontario     

R.W. Hinton  J.V.P. Long 《Earth and Planetary Science Letters》1979,45(2):309-325

Selected-area measurements of lead-isotope ratios in zircons have been made at high mass resolution using a modified A.E.I. IM20 ion-microprobe. At a working resolution of 3200 it is shown that the important interfering molecular peaks generated from the zircon matrix may be separated from atomic lead peaks. Corrections for overlapping peaks, which are necessary in measurements of lead isotopes at low mass resolution, are then only required for ²⁰⁸Pb.Measurements on N.B.S. standards show no isotope discrimination within counting statistics. Determination of ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb on 29 single zircon grains from a tonalite gneiss and a granite from Lac Seul, northwestern Ontario, give very variable ratios with mean values close to those of bulk separates. Peaks in the distribution of 207/206 ratios obtained from the tonalite gneiss may be interpreted as evidence for two stages of lead loss. High 207/206 ratios are shown to be significant for at least two zircons and probably record a minimum age of formation of 3.3 ± 0.1 b.y. for the gneiss.  相似文献