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Computer-based Model for Flood Evacuation Emergency Planning 总被引：5，自引：0，他引：5
A computerized simulation model for capturing human behavior during flood emergency evacuation is developed using a system dynamics approach. It simulates the acceptance of evacuation orders by the residents of the area under threat; number of families in the process of evacuation; and time required for all evacuees to reach safety. The model is conceptualized around the flooding conditions (physical and management) and the main set of social and mental factors that determine human behavior before and during the flood evacuation. The number of families under the flood threat, population in the process of evacuation, inundation of refuge routes, flood conditions (precipitation, river elevation, etc.), and different flood warnings and evacuation orders related variables are among the large set of variables included in the model. They are linked to the concern that leads to the danger recognition, which triggers evacuation decisions that determine the number of people being evacuated. The main purpose of the model is to assess the effectiveness of different flood emergency management procedures. Each procedure consists of the choice of flood warning method, warning consistency, timing of evacuation order, coherence of the community, upstream flooding conditions, and set of weights assigned to different warning distribution methods. Model use and effectiveness are tested through the evaluation of the effectiveness of different flood evacuation emergency options in the Red River Basin, Canada. 相似文献
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针对流域内气象观测站点稀少和融雪径流过程的特点,利用APHRODITE降水数据进行插值,应用日有效活动温度改进度日数;依据季节性冻土受有效活动积温影响的特点,建立有效活动积温与径流系数的关系,提高模型中融雪速率和径流系数的计算精度。结合气象、水文资料和MODIS遥感积雪产品,应用改进的融雪径流模型（SRM）对开都河流域2000年与2006年融雪期的径流进行了率定和验证模拟。改进模型在率定期和验证期的模拟结果远远优于用日平均温度作为度日数的结果。结果表明,用APHRODITE降水数据及改进的度日数和径流系数作为SRM模型参数输入,能够较好模拟开都河流域融雪径流过程,大大提高模型模拟精度。 相似文献
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F. Akbar Jan Sabir Khan M. Ishaq M. Naeem I. Ahmad Sajjad Hussain 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2014,7(1):13-19
The purpose of the present study was to investigate the effects of brick kiln exhaust on the quantity of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in surrounding soils and plants. In Pakistan, a big problem is the rapid conglomeration of the brick kilns in out skirt of nearly all urban centers to cope with the rapid construction work in big cities. A huge amount of low-grade coal, rubber, tires is used in non-scientific manner. The study was conducted in the City of Peshawar the capital of Kyber Pakhtunkhwa where many brick kilns are located in the periurban areas. Soil and medicinal plants samples were collected from different locations around the bricks kiln and were analyzed for selected polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), i.e., benzo(a)pyrene, anthracene, chrysene, flourene, flouranthene, phenanthrene, naphthalene, and acenapthylene. Quantitative and qualitative analysis was carried out by UV spectrophotometer and high-performance liquid chromatography. Benzo[a]pyren and Chrysene were found to be the most abundant compounds. The total load of PAHs in the central location was found to be 0.4014 mg/kg. General trend of PAHs distribution was such that the concentration of individual PAHs was found to increase with depth clearly indicating their absorption in the soil. PAHs concentration increased with the distance up to 300 m and then gradual decreased which showed their movement with the water and air. The PAHs load was found high in the leaves as compared to stem and roots. This high load in the aerial parts indicated their excretion route as well as air deposition. 相似文献
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The inner ramp facies of the Thanetian Lockhart Formation,western Salt Range,Indus Basin,Pakistan 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Muhammad Hanif Muhammad Imraz Fahad Ali Muhammad Haneef Abdus Saboor Shahid Iqbal Sajjad Ahmad Jr 《Arabian Journal of Geosciences》2014,7(11):4911-4926
The Lockhart Formation from a major carbonate unit of the Paleocene Charrat Group in Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan represents a larger foraminiferal–algal build up deposited in a cyclic sequence of the carbonate ramp. The foraminiferal–algal assemblages of the Lockhart Formation are correlated here to larger foraminiferal biostratigraphic zone, i.e. Shallow Benthic Zone (SBZ3) of the Thanetian Age. Inner ramp lagoon, shoal and fore shoal open marine are three main facies associations represented by wackstone and packstone foraminiferal–algal deposits. These facies are present in a cyclic order and displayed a retrograding carbonate ramp indicating the Thanetian transgressive deposits associated with eustatic sea level rise. The correlation of the microfacies of the Lockhart Formation (Upper Indus Basin) and facies of the Dungan Formation (Lower Indus Basin) provide detailed configuration of the depositional setting of the Indus Basin during the time interval represented by the Thanetian Zone SBZ3. 相似文献
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Multiyear (1983?C2006) hindcast simulation of summer monsoon over South Asia has been carried out using the regional climate model of the Beijing Climate Centre (BCC_RegCM1.0). The regional climate model (hereafter BCC RCM) is nested into the global climate model of the Beijing Climate Centre BCC_CGCM1.0 (here after CGCM). The regional climate model is initialized on 01 May and integrated up to the end of the September for 24?years. Compared to the driving CGCM the BCC RCM reproduces reasonably well the intensity and magnitude of the large-scale features associated with the South Asia summer monsoon such as the upper level anticyclone at 200?hPa, the mid-tropospheric warming over the Tibetan plateau, the surface heat low and the 850?hPa moisture transport from ocean to the land. Both models, i.e., BCC RCM and the driving CGCM overestimates (underestimates) the 850?hPa southwesterly flow over the northern (southern) Arabian Sea. Moreover, both models overestimate the seasonal mean precipitation over much of the South Asia region compared to the observations. However, the precipitation biases are significantly reduced in the BCC RCM simulations. Furthermore, both models simulate reasonably the interannual variability of the summer monsoon over India. The precipitation index simulated by BCC RCM shows significant correlation (0.62) with the observed one. The BCC RCM simulates reasonably well the spatial and temporal variation of the precipitation and surface air temperature compared to the driving CGCM. Further, the temperature biases are significantly reduced (1?C4°C) in the BCC RCM simulations. The simulated vertical structure of the atmosphere show biases above the four sub-regions, however, these biases are significantly reduced in the BCC RCM simulations compared to the driving CGCM. Compared to the driving CGCM, the evolution processes of the onset of summer monsoon, e.g., the meridional temperature gradient and the vertical wind shear are well simulated by the BCC RCM. The 24-year simulations also show that with a little exception the BCC RCM is capable to reproduce the monsoon active and break phases and the intraseasonal precipitation variation over the Indian subcontinent. 相似文献
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Circumglobal wave train and the summer monsoon over northwestern India and Pakistan: the explicit role of the surface heat low 总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1
Sajjad Saeed Wolfgang A. M��ller Stefan Hagemann Daniela Jacob 《Climate Dynamics》2011,37(5-6):1045-1060
This study examines the influence of the mid-latitude circulation on the surface heat low (HL) and associated monsoon rainfall over northwestern India and Pakistan using the ERA40 data and high resolution (T106L31) climate model ECHAM5 simulation. Special emphasis is given to the surface HL which forms over Pakistan and adjoining areas of India, Iran and Afghanistan during the summer season. A heat low index (HLI) is defined to depict the surface HL. The HLI displays significant correlations with the upper level mid-latitude circulation over western central Asia and low level monsoon circulation over Arabian Sea and acts as a bridge connecting the mid-latitude wave train to the Indian summer monsoon. A time-lagged singular value decomposition analysis reveals that the eastward propagation of the mid-latitude circumglobal wave train (CGT) influences the surface pressure anomalies over the Indian domain. The largest low (negative) pressure anomalies over the western parts of the HL region (i.e., Iran and Afghanistan) occur in conjunction with the upper level anomalous high that develops over western-central Asia during the positive phase of the CGT. The composite analysis also reveals a significant increase in the low pressure anomalies over Iran and Afghanistan during the positive phase of CGT. The westward increasing low pressure anomalies with its north?Csouth orientation provokes enormous north?Csouth pressure gradient (lower pressure over land than over sea). This in turn enables the moist southerly flow from the Arabian Sea to penetrate farther northward over northwestern India and Pakistan. A monsoon trough like conditions develops over northwestern India and Pakistan where the moist southwesterly flow from the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf converge. The convergence in association with the orographic uplifting expedites convection and associated precipitation over northwestern India and Pakistan. The high resolution climate model ECHAM5 simulation also underlines the proposed findings and mechanism. 相似文献
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Muhammad Z. CHAUDHARY Nasir AHMAD Azhar MASHIATULLAH Sajjad MUNIR Tariq JAVED 《《地质学报》英文版》2013,87(5):1434-1443
Trace metal concentrations were investigated in a recent sediment core collected from the Rehri Creek area of the Karachi coast,Sindh-Pakistan.The core was sliced horizontally at 2.5-cm intervals to determine grain size,sediment composition,pH,organic matter,and acid-leachable trace metals:cadmium,chromium,copper,lead,and zinc.The trace metals were analyzed by ICP.To separate anthropogenic from geogenic input,several approaches were made,including comparison with sediment quality guidelines—ecotoxicological sense of heavy metal contamination and classification by quantitative indexes.Grain-size analysis and sediment composition of core sample show a sandy nature with neutral pH.Elemental sequence(ES)of the trace metals is in the order of Zn(19.2-109.56 ppm)>Si(66.46-101.71 ppm)>Ba(12.05-26.86 ppm)>As(8.18-17.36 ppm)>Ni(4.2-14.69 ppm)>Cr(3.02-9.62 ppm)>Pb(2.79-6.83 ppm)>Cu(2.2-5.29 ppm)>Co(0.9-2.05 ppm).Thus it is likely that the area may face a serious threat of metal pollution with the present deposition rates unless stringent pollution control norms are adopted.The Sediment Geo-accumulation Index shows that there is no Cr,Cu,Ni,Pb,Zn,or Fe pollution;however,the former index and the Pollution Load Index indicate arsenic pollution in the sediments. 相似文献
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Sajjad Saeed Nicole Van Lipzig Wolfgang A. Müller Fahad Saeed Davide Zanchettin 《Climate Dynamics》2014,43(1-2):503-515
We investigate European summer (July–August) precipitation variability and its global teleconnections using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data (1950–2010) and a historical Coupled Model Intercomparison Project climate simulation (1901–2005) carried out using the ECHAM6/MPIOM climate model. A wavelike pattern is found in the upper tropospheric levels (200 hPa) similar to the summer circumglobal wave train (CGT) extending from the North Pacific to the Eurasian region. The positive phase of the CGT is associated with upper level anomalous low (high) pressure over western (eastern) Europe. It is further associated with a dipole-like precipitation pattern over Europe entailing significantly enhanced (reduced) precipitation over the western (eastern) region. The anomalous circulation features and associated summer precipitation pattern over Europe inverts for the negative CGT phase. Accordingly, the global teleconnection pattern of a precipitation index summarizing summer precipitation over Western Europe entails an upper level signature which consists of a CGT-like wave pattern extending from the North Pacific to Eurasia. The imprint of the CGT on European summer precipitation is distinct from that of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation, despite the two modes of variability bear strong similarities in their upper level atmospheric pattern over Western Europe. The analysis of simulated CGT features and of its climatic implications for the European region substantiates the existence of the CGT-European summer precipitation connection. The summer CGT in the mid-latitude therefore adds to the list of the modes of large-scale atmospheric variability significantly influencing European summer precipitation variability. 相似文献