The credibility and effectiveness of country climate targets under the Paris Agreement requires that, in all greenhouse gas (GHG) sectors, the accounted mitigation outcomes reflect genuine deviations from the type and magnitude of activities generating emissions in the base year or baseline. This is challenging for the forestry sector, as the future net emissions can change irrespective of actual management activities, because of age-related stand dynamics resulting from past management and natural disturbances. The solution implemented under the Kyoto Protocol (2013–2020) was accounting mitigation as deviation from a projected (forward-looking) “forest reference level”, which considered the age-related dynamics but also allowed including the assumed future implementation of approved policies. This caused controversies, as unverifiable counterfactual scenarios with inflated future harvest could lead to credits where no change in management has actually occurred, or conversely, failing to reflect in the accounts a policy-driven increase in net emissions. Instead, here we describe an approach to set reference levels based on the projected continuation of documented historical forest management practice, i.e. reflecting age-related dynamics but not the future impact of policies. We illustrate a possible method to implement this approach at the level of the European Union (EU) using the Carbon Budget Model.
Results
Using EU country data, we show that forest sinks between 2013 and 2016 were greater than that assumed in the 2013–2020 EU reference level under the Kyoto Protocol, which would lead to credits of 110–120 Mt CO2/year (capped at 70–80 Mt CO2/year, equivalent to 1.3% of 1990 EU total emissions). By modelling the continuation of management practice documented historically (2000–2009), we show that these credits are mostly due to the inclusion in the reference levels of policy-assumed harvest increases that never materialized. With our proposed approach, harvest is expected to increase (12% in 2030 at EU-level, relative to 2000–2009), but more slowly than in current forest reference levels, and only because of age-related dynamics, i.e. increased growing stocks in maturing forests.
Conclusions
Our science-based approach, compatible with the EU post-2020 climate legislation, helps to ensure that only genuine deviations from the continuation of historically documented forest management practices are accounted toward climate targets, therefore enhancing the consistency and comparability across GHG sectors. It provides flexibility for countries to increase harvest in future reference levels when justified by age-related dynamics. It offers a policy-neutral solution to the polarized debate on forest accounting (especially on bioenergy) and supports the credibility of forest sector mitigation under the Paris Agreement.
A 6.8-magnitude earthquake that occurred on January 24, 2020, has been effective in Turkey’s eastern regions. The earthquake, with recorded peak ground acceleration (PGA) value of 0.292 g, caused the destruction or heavy damage of buildings, especially in the city center of Elaz?? province. The purpose of this paper was to share the results of detailed investigation in the earthquake-stricken area. Additionally, the causes of damages and failures observed in the buildings were compared to those that had occurred in previous earthquakes in Turkey. In this study, the damages observed in especially RC buildings as well as in masonry and rural buildings were summarized, the lessons learned were evaluated, and the results were interpreted with reference to Turkish earthquake codes. In the study, it was particularly emphasized why the building stock underwent such damage even though the buildings were exposed to earthquake acceleration well below the design acceleration values.
A technique to detect spectrum variations versus time along seismic signals is applied to coda waves of local earthquakes (Friuli, Northern Italy). The technique consists of an autoregressive modeling and utilizes nonlinear spectral analysis where the spectrum of stochastic processes is estimated as the transfer function of the filter that whitens the process under analysis. This approach appears to be particularly well suited to those investigations where automatic measurements of the instantaneous frequency have to be carried out on digital data. The detection of variations of the instantaneous frequency along the coda allows computation of seismic-Q in the lithosphere and its frequency dependence: the result obtained is $$Q = 100f^{0.4} $$ which appears to be strongly consistent with that, based on the estimate of the coda amplitude decay in the band including the most significant frequencies of the signals under analysis. 相似文献
Summary A principal component analysis (PCA) based on a network including 179 pluviometric gauges is attempted in order to describe the main patterns governing precipitation in Catalonia (NE Spain). This PCA procedure is applied to the interstation covariance matrix and component loadings are then deduced from it and extensively interpreted. PCA results are used immediately after in a Davis and Kalkstein clustering process, leading to a rainfall division. The homogeneity of the different groups obtained is tested by means of the analysis of their spatial and temporal within-group variances.With 8 Figures 相似文献
The clinopyroxenes mentioned have been investigated by single crystal X-ray diffraction combined with electron microprobe analysis. The aim of this study was to characterize the crystal-chemical variations of clinopyroxenes in order to delineate the intracrystalline constraints which are characteristic of specific magmatic environments. Clinopyroxenes (cpx) crystallized from peralkaline ultrapotassic melt with kamafugitic and lamproitic affinities are characterized by high Si contents, which are insensitive to variations in silica abundance and silica saturation of the melt. The high Si occupancy in clinopyroxenes from kamafugitic magma is coupled to large M1 (i.e. Mg and Fe2+) and M2 (high Ca occupancy) sites, whereas in clinopyroxenes from magmas with lamproitic affinity, high Si content is combined with large M1 but small M2 sites. Clinopyroxenes from Romantype alkaline potassic and ultrapostassic rocks are characterized by an expanded tetrahedron (high IVA1 content) and small M1 site which is combined with small M2 polyhedron in clinopyroxenes from the potassic rocks and large M2 site in those from the ultrapotassic rocks. 相似文献
The second field campaign of the Cloud Ice Mountain Experiment (CIME) project took place in February 1998 on the mountain Puy de Dôme in the centre of France. The content of residual aerosol particles, of H2O2 and NH3 in cloud droplets was evaluated by evaporating the drops larger than 5 μm in a Counterflow Virtual Impactor (CVI) and by measuring the residual particle concentration and the released gas content. The same trace species were studied behind a round jet impactor for the complementary interstitial aerosol particles smaller than 5 μm diameter. In a second step of experiments, the ambient supercooled cloud was converted to a mixed phase cloud by seeding the cloud with ice particles by the gas release from pressurised gas bottles. A comparison between the physical and chemical characteristics of liquid drops and ice particles allows a study of the fate of the trace constituents during the presence of ice crystals in the cloud.In the present paper, an overview is given of the CIME 98 experiment and the instrumentation deployed. The meteorological situation during the experiment was analysed with the help of a cloud scale model. The microphysics processes and the behaviour of the scavenged aerosol particles before and during seeding are analysed with the detailed microphysical model ExMix. The simulation results agreed well with the observations and confirmed the assumption that the Bergeron–Findeisen process was dominating during seeding and was influencing the partitioning of aerosol particles between drops and ice crystals. The results of the CIME 98 experiment give an insight on microphysical changes, redistribution of aerosol particles and cloud chemistry during the Bergeron–Findeisen process when acting also in natural clouds. 相似文献
We investigated the partitioning of trace substances during the phase transition from supercooled to mixed-phase cloud induced by artificial seeding. Simultaneous determination of the concentrations of H2O2, NH3 and black carbon (BC) in both condensed and interstitial phases with high time resolution showed that the three species undergo different behaviour in the presence of a mixture of ice crystals and supercooled droplets. Both H2O2 and NH3 are efficiently scavenged by growing ice crystals, whereas BC stayed predominantly in the interstitial phase. In addition, the scavenging of H2O2 is driven by co-condensation with water vapour onto ice crystals while NH3 uptake into the ice phase is more efficient than co-condensation alone. The high solubility of NH4+ in the ice could explain this result. Finally, it appears that the H2O2–SO2 reaction is very slow in the ice phase with respect to the liquid phase. Our results are directly applicable for clouds undergoing limited riming. 相似文献
Résumé Ce texte a pour but d'analyser la notion d'échelle, ou de niveau d'hétérogénéité, d'un phénomène géologique, à l'aide d'outils de morphologie mathématique tels que la «fonction intrinsèque» de la théorie des variables régionalisées de G. Matheron. Une première étude expérimentale montre comment les structures s'emboitent les unes dans les autres dans un dépôt sédimentaire comme le gisement de fer de Lorraine. Puis, en formulant théoriquement ces imbrications de structures, on montre comment les deux types de fonctions intrinsèques observés couramment, le type transitif et le type de wijsien se relient l'un à l'autre. Mais la morphologie mathématique ne peut pas dire pourquoi des structures gigognes en progression géométrique existent.
The objective of this paper is to analyze the concept of scale in a geological set. The mathematical tool used here is the intrinsic function of the regionalized variables' theory of G. Matheron. A first experimental step shows how the structures observed in the sedimentary ore deposit of Lorraine fit into one another. The next part describe theoretically this phenomenon. The theoretical models allow to synthesize the two types of usual intrinsic functions, type transitif and de wijsien. But mathematical morphology appears to be unable to explain why these structures exist.
Summary Catalonian daily precipitation patterns were obtained by means of S-mode Principal Component Analysis (PCA) applied to subsets
built up according to synoptic surface airflow. Daily data from November to April 1990–1994 from 45 raingauge sites in Catalonia
without missing data were used. Eight circulation classes for days in this period were considered. A Precipitation Activity
Index (PAI) was calculated for each station and class, leading to the determination of the highest activity regions for each
subset. In addition, we determined which circulation type produced most precipitation at each station of the network. Separate
PCAs were performed for each of the eight classes considered and the first four Varimax rotated solutions were interpreted
for each circulation type. The physical meaning of the rest of the factors were omitted as they were associated with local
behaviour. Finally, some concluding remarks on the cyclogenic properties of the Western Mediterranean Basin and the diversity
of the extracted patterns are presented and supported by the authors experience in forecasting in Catalonia.
Received February, 11, 1997 Revised May 23, 1997 相似文献