Towards more systematic perceptual model development: a case study using 3 Luxembourgish catchments          下载免费PDF全文

Sebastian Wrede  Fabrizio Fenicia  Núria Martínez‐Carreras  Jérôme Juilleret  Christophe Hissler  Andreas Krein  Hubert H. G. Savenije  Stefan Uhlenbrook  Dmitri Kavetski  Laurent Pfister 《水文研究》2015,29(12):2731-2750

The synthesis of experimental understanding of catchment behaviour and its translation into qualitative perceptual models is an important objective of hydrological sciences. We explore this challenge by examining the cumulative understanding of the hydrology of three experimental catchments and how it evolves through the application of different investigation techniques. The case study considers the Huewelerbach, Weierbach and Wollefsbach headwater catchments of the Attert basin in Luxembourg. Subsurface investigations including bore holes and pits, analysis of soil samples and Electrical Resistivity Tomography measurements are presented and discussed. Streamflow and tracer data are used to gain further insights into the streamflow dynamics of the catchments, using end‐member mixing analysis and hydrograph separation based on dissolved silica and electrical conductivity. We show that the streamflow generating processes in all three catchments are controlled primarily by the subsolum and underlying bedrock. In the Huewelerbach, the permeable sandstone formation supports a stable groundwater component with little seasonality, which reaches the stream through a series of sources at the contact zone with the impermeable marls formation. In the Weierbach, the schist formation is relatively impermeable and supports a ‘fill and spill’‐type of flow mechanism; during wet conditions, it produces a delayed response dominated by pre‐event water. In the Wollefsbach, the impermeable marls formation is responsible for a saturation‐excess runoff generating process, producing a fast and highly seasonal response dominated by event water. The distinct streamflow generating processes of the three catchments are represented qualitatively using perceptual models. The perceptual models are in turn translated into quantitative conceptual models, which simulate the hydrological processes using networks of connected reservoirs and transfer functions. More generally, the paper illustrates the evolution of perceptual models based on experimental fieldwork data, the translation of perceptual models into conceptual models and the value of different types of data for processes understanding and model representation. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Magma mixing induced by particle settling     

Christian J. Renggli  Sebastian Wiesmaier  Cristina P. De Campos  Kai-Uwe Hess  Donald B. Dingwell 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2016,171(11):96

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Converting heterogeneous complex geological models to consistent finite element models: methods,development, and application to deep geothermal reservoir operation     

Bo Wang  Sebastian Bauer 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(20):1349

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Upward brine migration resulting from pressure increases in a layered subsurface system     

Jens-Olaf Delfs  Johannes Nordbeck  Sebastian Bauer 《Environmental Earth Sciences》2016,75(22):1441

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Statistical analysis of time-dependent earthquake occurrence and its impact on hazard in the low seismicity region Lower Rhine Embayment   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Licia Faenza  Sebastian Hainzl  Frank Scherbaum  Céline Beauval 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,171(2):797-806

The time-dependence of earthquake occurrence is mostly ignored in standard seismic hazard assessment even though earthquake clustering is well known. In this work, we attempt to quantify the impact of more realistic dynamics on the seismic hazard estimations. We include the time and space dependences between earthquakes into the hazard analysis via Monte Carlo simulations. Our target region is the Lower Rhine Embayment, a low seismicity area in Germany. Including aftershock sequences by using the epidemic type aftershock-sequence (ETAS) model, we find that on average the hypothesis of uncorrelated random earthquake activity underestimates the hazard by 5–10 per cent. Furthermore, we show that aftershock activity of past large earthquakes can locally increase the hazard even centuries later. We also analyse the impact of the so-called long-term behaviour, assuming a quasi-periodic occurrence of main events on a major fault in that region. We found that a significant impact on hazard is only expected for the special case of a very regular recurrence of the main shocks.  相似文献   

Graben width controlling syn-rift sedimentation: the Palaeogene southern Upper Rhine Graben as an example     

Sebastian Hinsken  Kamil Ustaszewski  Andreas Wetzel 《International Journal of Earth Sciences》2007,96(6):979-1002

Eocene to Early Oligocene syn-rift deposits of the southern Upper Rhine Graben (URG) accumulated in restricted environments. Sedimentation was controlled by local clastic supply from the graben flanks, as well as by strong intra-basinal variations in accommodation space due to differential tectonic subsidence, that in turn led to pronounced lateral variations in depositional environment. Three large-scale cycles of intensified evaporite sedimentation were interrupted by temporary changes towards brackish or freshwater conditions. They form three major base level cycles that can be traced throughout the basin, each of them representing a stratigraphic sub-unit. A relatively constant amount of horizontal extension (ΔL) in the range of 4–5 km has been estimated for the URG from numerous cross-sections. The width of the rift (L _f ), however, varies between 35 and more than 60 km, resulting in a variable crustal stretching factor between the bounding masterfaults. Apart from block tilting, tectonic subsidence was, therefore, largely controlled by changes in the initial rift width (L ₀). The along-strike variations of the graben width are responsible for the development of a deep, trough-like evaporite basin (Potash Basin) in the narrowest part of the southern URG, adjacent to shallow areas in the wider parts of the rift such as the Colmar Swell in the north and the Rhine Bresse Transfer Zone that delimits the URG to the south. Under a constant amount of extension, the along-strike variation in rift width is the principal factor controlling depo-centre development in extensional basins.  相似文献   

New insights into the P- and S-wave velocity structure of the D" discontinuity beneath the Cocos plate     

Tadashi Kito  Sebastian Rost  Christine Thomas  Edward J. Garnero 《Geophysical Journal International》2007,169(2):631-645

Broad-band P - and S -waves from earthquakes in South America recorded at Californian network stations are analysed to image lateral variations of the D"-discontinuity beneath the Cocos plate. We apply two array processing methods to the data set: a simplified migration method to the P -wave data set and a double-array method to both the P - and S -wave data sets, allowing us to compare results from the two methods. The double-array method images a dipping reflector at a depth range from 2650 to 2700 km in the southern part of the study area. We observe a step-like topography of 100 km to a shallower reflector at about 2600 km depth to the north, as well as evidence for a second (deeper) reflector at a depth range from 2700 to 2750 km in the north. Results from the simplified migration agree well with those from the double-array method, similarly locating a large step in reflector depth in a similar location (about 2650 km depth in the south and about 2550 km in the north) as well as the additional deeper reflector at the depth of about 2750 km in the north. Waveform modelling of the reflected waves from both methods suggests a positive velocity contrast for S waves, but a negative velocity contrast for P waves for the upper reflector in agreement with predictions from mineral physical calculations for a post-perovskite phase transition. The data also show some evidence for the existence of another deeper reflector that could indicate a double intersection of the geotherm with the post-perovskite stability field, that is, the back-transformation of post-perovskite to perovskite close to the core–mantle boundary.  相似文献   

GIOVE-A initial signal analysis     

Oliver Montenbruck  Christoph Günther  Sebastian Graf  Miquel Garcia-Fernandez  Johann Furthner  Hanspeter Kuhlen 《GPS Solutions》2006,10(2):146-153

In late December 2005 the GIOVE-A test satellite was launched by the European Space Agency (ESA) to secure the frequencies for the Galileo system and to provide a platform for testing the new navigation signals. We performed an initial assessment of these signals using the 30 m deep space antenna of the DLR ground station in Weilheim (Germany). The antenna gain raised the signals above the noise level, thus allowing a detailed analysis even without knowledge of the ranging codes. The present paper covers the analysis of the L1/E1 signals, which includes a discussion of the spectrum, the time domain signal and a decoding of the spreading codes for the Open Service.  相似文献   

An example of enhanced tephra deposition driven by topographically induced atmospheric turbulence     

Sebastian F. L. Watt  Jennie S. Gilbert  Arnau Folch  Jeremy C. Phillips  Xiaoming M. Cai 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2015,77(5):1-14

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Climatic control on river discharge simulations,Zackenberg River drainage basin,northeast Greenland     

Sebastian H. Mernild  Bent Hasholt  Glen E. Liston 《水文研究》2008,22(12):1932-1948

A spatially distributed, physically based, hydrologic modeling system (MIKE SHE) was applied to quantify intra‐ and inter‐annual discharge from the snow and glacierized Zackenberg River drainage basin (512 km²; 20% glacier cover) in northeast Greenland. Evolution of snow accumulation, distribution by wind‐blown snow, blowing‐snow sublimation, and snow and ice surface melt were simulated by a spatially distributed, physically based, snow‐evolution modelling system (SnowModel) and used as input to MIKE SHE. Discharge simulations were performed for three periods 1997–2001 (calibration period), 2001–2005 (validation period), and 2071–2100 (scenario period). The combination of SnowModel and MIKE SHE shows promising results; the timing and magnitude of simulated discharge were generally in accordance with observations (R² = 0·58); however, discrepancies between simulated and observed discharge hydrographs do occur (maximum daily difference up to 44·6 m³ s^?1 and up to 9% difference between observed and simulated cumulative discharge). The model does not perform well when a sudden outburst of glacial dammed water occurs, like the 2005 extreme flood event. The modelling study showed that soil processes related to yearly change in active layer depth and glacial processes (such as changes in yearly glacier area, seasonal changes in the internal glacier drainage system, and the sudden release of glacial bulk water storage) need to be determined, for example, from field studies and incorporated in the models before basin runoff can be quantified more precisely. The SnowModel and MIKE SHE model only include first‐order effects of climate change. For the period 2071–2100, future IPCC A2 and B2 climate scenarios based on the HIRHAM regional climate model and HadCM3 atmosphere–ocean general circulation model simulations indicated a mean annual Zackenberg runoff about 1·5 orders of magnitude greater (around 650 mmWE year^?1) than from today 1997–2005 (around 430 mmWE year^?1), mainly based on changes in negative glacier net mass balance. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献