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Natural disasters, like hurricanes, can damage properties and critical infrastructure systems, degrade economic productivity, and in extreme situations can cause injuries and mortalities. This paper focuses particularly on workforce disruptions in the aftermath of hurricanes. We extend the dynamic inoperability input?Coutput model (DIIM) by formulating a workforce recovery model to identify critical industry sectors. A decision analysis tool is utilized by integrating the economic loss and inoperability metrics to study the interdependent effects of various hurricane intensities on Virginia??s workforce sectors. The extended DIIM and available workforce survey data are incorporated in the decision support tool to simulate various hurricane scenarios. For a low-intensity hurricane scenario, the simulated total economic loss to Virginia??s industry sectors due to workforce absenteeism is around $410 million. Examples of critical sectors that suffer the highest losses for this scenario include: (1) miscellaneous professional, scientific, and technical services; (2) federal general government; (3) state and local government enterprises; (4) construction; and (5) administrative and support services. This paper also explores the inoperability metric, which describes the proportion in which a sector capacity is disrupted. The inoperability metric reveals a different ranking of critical sectors, such as: (1) social assistance; (2) hospitals and nursing and residential care facilities; (3) educational services; (4) federal government enterprises; and (5) federal general government. Results of the study will help identify the critical workforce sectors and can ultimately provide insights into formulating preparedness decisions to expedite disaster recovery. The model was applied to the state of Virginia but can be generalized to other regions and other disaster scenarios. 相似文献
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Risk-based flood zoning employing expected annual damages: the Chenab River case study 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Muhammad Atiq Ur Rehman Tariq 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2013,27(8):1957-1966
Flooding proves to be the most devastating and annihilating natural hazard in Pakistan. Existing flood management strategies are riveted primarily to the structural measures that contribute limited loss reduction capability at the national level. Non-structural measures are not part of regular practices, as the adopted design standards, which are probabilistic in nature, are unable to assess their feasibilities. An improved risk-based assessment using expected annual damages (EAD) is introduced in this article for the evaluation of combined impacts. EAD treat the probabilistic nature of losses and provide an extended visualization of risk distributions in the form of damage curves and expected annual damages distribution maps. The Chenab River floodplain was selected to study the coalesced response of embankments and flood zoning, preliminary in economic terms. In this regard, the impacts of all likely floods are considered instead of the traditional focus on a single design flood. Damage curves and maps are compiled using estimated losses and probabilities of all floods. Flood zoning for agricultural land is performed. The results support choosing a multidirectional conjunctive approach that considers multiple measures to reduce flood losses. These results can be used as a vital input for the decision-making process. 相似文献
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Muhammad Imran Ather Ashraf Ateeq Ur Rehman 《Journal of the Geological Society of India》2016,88(6):711-717
Quality of soil data is vital to formulate agricultural policies at different scales. Current agricultural applications in Pakistan depend however, on average values of soil estimates over larger areas. In this work, model-based ordinary kriging (OK) and Bayesian kriging (BK) to interpolate soil data is used. The aim is to compare the two different methods for the accuracy of soil data prediction. For this soils were sampled for Electrical Conductivity (EC, dS m –1) at 759 different locations in the rural agricultural areas of Qasur Tehsil, Pakistan. Cross validation was used to compare the performance of OK and BK. Our results show strong skewness and spatial dependency of soil EC values in heterogeneous regions. Box-Cox transformation successfully reduced the level of skewness in the soil EC data (from 14.1 to 0.11). Contrary to OK, under-estimation of soil EC values was not evident in the BK interpolation. Mean square prediction error for BK (1.45) was significantly reduced as compared to that for OK (6.1). Considering these findings, BK is a better model to explain the sub-regional soil EC variability and estimating strategies for sustainable agricultural planning in Pakistan. 相似文献
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Ashraf Muhammad Arshad Adnan Patel Praharsh M. Khan Adeel Qamar Huma Siti-Sundari Ristina Ghani Muhammad Usman Amin Ali Babar Jamilur Rehman 《Natural Hazards》2021,109(3):2127-2151
Natural Hazards - Climate change-induced disasters show the highest risk for agriculture and livelihoods in rural areas of developing countries. Due to changing rainfall pattern, the arid and... 相似文献
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Glyphosate is globally a widely used herbicide, yet there is little information on their toxicity to marine fishes. Java medaka, a small tropical fish native to coastal areas in several Southeast Asian countries, is viewed as a suitable candidate for toxicity test and thus was used for this study. Java medaka adults were cultured in the laboratory and the fertilized eggs of the F2 generation were exposed to different concentrations of glyphosate-based herbicide (100, 200, 300, 400 and 500 ppm) until they hatched. The survival and hatching rates of the embryos, changes in the heart rate and morphological impairments were recorded. Generally, survival and hatching percentage decreased as glyphosate concentration increased. Absence of pectoral fin(s) and cornea, permanently bent tail, irregular shaped abdomen, and cell disruption in the fin, head and abdomen are among the common teratogenic effects observed. Furthermore, risk factor also increased with the increased in glyphosate concentrations. 相似文献
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Mohammad Amjad Sabir S. Shafiqur Rehman Muhammad Umar Amir Waseem Muhammad Farooq Fariduulah Muhammad Irshad 《Water Resources》2014,41(5):612-618
Pakistan is facing acute power dearth these days due to which people are suffering from privation and their economic condition is deflating. Expensive imported fossil fuel for thermal power generation is pressing them hard and exacerbating the situation. The total power produced in the country by all means is less by 4000 MW than the requirement of Pakistan. So this is the prime time to think about exploring aboriginal and renewable power resources. This article converses about hydro power resources of Swat, North Pakistan, one of the most promising areas in hydro power production. The area drained by the Swat River and its tributary net work is a part of Kohistan Himalayas and has a potential of more than 1000 MW that can contribute 25% to the total energy shortfall in the country and the same is 150% more than the shortfall experienced in the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa that hosts Swat Valley. Due to great relief difference acquired within a small stretch, the perennial Swat River and its tributaries become pertinent for power production as high head projects and also gain importance in irrigation as well. 相似文献
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Ali AAMIR Ullah MATEE Hussain MATLOOB Asher Samuel BHATTI Rehman KHAISTA 《《地质学报》英文版》2017,91(6):2180-2199
The successful exploration and production of shale-gas resources in the United States and Canada sets a new possible solution towards the energy crisis presently affecting most countries of Asia. This study focuses on the use of well log and 2D seismic data for the characterization of the shale oil/gas potential of a Paleocene–Eocene succession — the Meyal area in the Potwar Basin of Pakistan. Two shaly plays are identified in Paleocene–Eocene strata in well logs using ΔLogR and modified ΔLogR cross-plot techniques. The results indicate that Paleocene shale(the Patala Formation) and the lower shaly part of Eocene limestone(Sakesar Formation) can be potentially mature source rocks. However, the thermal maturity modelling proves that only the Paleocene shale is mature. Our results also suggest that the maturity responses on ΔLogR models for the lower shaly part of the Eocene limestone are due to trapped hydrocarbons in the intra-formational fractures. Petroelastic/petrophysical analysis of the Patala Formation reveals two potential shale oil/gas zones on the basis of Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio, Brittleness index and Total Organic Content at an exploitation depth of 3980–3988 m. This work can provide valuable insight for estimating shale oil/gas potential in highly deformed basins not only in Asia but in other parts of the world. 相似文献
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ul Shafiq Mifta Ashraf Ifra ul Islam Zahoor Ahmed Pervez Dimri A. P. 《Natural Hazards》2020,104(1):611-637
Natural Hazards - Successful management of the water resources directly depends on our understanding of the heterogeneity of changing climate and consequent response of annual and seasonal... 相似文献