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61.
An ensemble three-dimensional ensemble-variational(3DEnVar)data assimilation(E3DA)system was developed within the Weather Research and Forecasting model’s 3DVar framework to assimilate radar data to improve convective forecasting.In this system,ensemble perturbations are updated by an ensemble of 3DEnVar and the ensemble forecasts are used to generate the flow-dependent background error covariance.The performance of the E3DA system was first evaluated against one experiment without radar DA and one radar DA experiment with 3DVar,using a severe storm case over southeastern China on 5 June 2009.Results indicated that E3DA improved the quantitative forecast skills of reflectivity and precipitation,as well as their spatial distributions in terms of both intensity and coverage over 3DVar.The root-mean-square error of radial velocity from 3DVar was reduced by E3DA,with stronger low-level wind closer to observation.It was also found that E3DA improved the wind,temperature and water vapor mixing ratio,with the lowest errors at the surface and upper levels.3DVar showed moderate improvements in comparison with forecasts without radar DA.A diagnosis of the analysis revealed that E3DA increased vertical velocity,temperature,and humidity corresponding to the added reflectivity,while 3DVar failed to produce these adjustments,because of the lack of reasonable cross-variable correlations.The performance of E3DA was further verified using two convective cases over southern and southeastern China,and the reflectivity forecast skill was also improved over 3DVar. 相似文献
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文章以甘肃黑方台灌区黄土滑坡区黄土为研究对象,开展了滑坡区盐分调查及水土化学特征分析,进行了不同易溶盐含量及不同含水率条件下的重塑黄土三轴固结不排水剪切试验,探讨盐分及含水率对黄土强度的影响。结果表明：滑坡区土样中易溶盐含量范围为0.15%～4.55%,易溶盐主要是以Na2SO4和NaCl为主;水化学分析显示灌溉水入渗及溶滤台塬黄土中的可溶盐,经优势通道在坡脚以泉点渗出等方式排泄并富集;试样抗剪强度随易溶盐含量的增加而提高,随含水率的增加而降低;不同易溶盐及含水率条件下,抗剪强度参数黏聚力变化范围为4.2～57.1 kPa,内摩擦角变化范围为23.1°～33.5°,黏聚力对易溶盐及含水率的变化更敏感。 相似文献
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基于自然灾害风险理论,利用1971—2020年宁波市127个气象站气象观测资料和茶叶生产相关资料,分析了宁波市茶叶早春霜冻空间分布规律,并通过层次分析(Analytic Hierarchy Process,AHP)和专家经验相结合的方法,构建了宁波市茶叶早春霜冻风险因子集,通过加权指数求和的方法建立了宁波市茶叶早春霜冻风险模型,对早春霜冻灾害风险进行了综合和分年代的评估。结果表明,宁波市茶叶早春霜冻出现的年平均天数分布总体呈现西低东高的特征,霜冻年平均天数的范围在0.23~21.43 d;宁波市茶叶早春霜冻高风险区主要集中在余姚南部的四明山区域、宁海西部和宁海东北部的茶山区域,低风险区主要分布于宁波东部沿海地区;20世纪70—90年代宁波市茶叶早春霜冻低风险和较低风险区域基本呈增长趋势,中风险和较高风险区域呈减少趋势,高风险区域80年代最多、90年代次之、70年代最少,21世纪00—10年代,宁波市茶叶早春霜冻低风险和中风险区域呈减少趋势,较低风险、较高风险和高风险区域呈增长趋势。 相似文献