Reaching a climate agreement: compensating for energy market effects of climate policy     

Sonja Peterson  Matthias Weitzel 《Climate Policy》2016,16(8):993-1010

Because of large economic and environmental asymmetries among world regions and the incentive to free ride, an international climate regime with broad participation is hard to reach. Most of the proposed regimes are based on an allocation of emissions rights that is perceived as fair. Yet, there are also arguments to focus more on the actual welfare implications of different regimes and to focus on a ‘fair’ distribution of resulting costs. In this article, the computable general equilibrium model DART is used to analyse the driving forces of welfare implications in different scenarios in line with the 2?°C target. These include two regimes that are often presumed to be ‘fair’, namely a harmonized international carbon tax and a cap and trade system based on the convergence of per capita emissions rights, and also an ‘equal loss’ scenario where welfare losses relative to a business-as-usual scenario are equal for all major world regions. The main finding is that indirect energy market effects are a major driver of welfare effects and that the ‘equal loss’ scenario would thus require large transfer payments to energy exporters to compensate for welfare losses from lower world energy demand and prices.

Policy relevance

A successful future climate regime requires ‘fair’ burden sharing. Many proposed regimes start from ethical considerations to derive an allocation of emissions reduction requirements or emissions allowances within an international emissions trading scheme. Yet, countries also consider the expected economic costs of a regime that are also driven by other factors besides allowance allocation. Indeed, in simplified lab experiments, successful groups are characterized by sharing costs proportional to wealth. This article shows that the major drivers of welfare effects are reduced demand for fossil energy and reduced fossil fuel prices, which implies that (1) what is often presumed to be a fair allocation of emissions allowances within an international emissions trading scheme leads to a very uneven distribution of economic costs and (2) aiming for equal relative losses for all regions requires large compensation to fossil fuel exporters, as argued, for example, by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).  相似文献   

Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Water Supply and Flood Hazard in Ireland Using Statistical Downscaling and Hydrological Modelling Techniques   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Rosemary Charlton  Rowan Fealy  Sonja Moore  John Sweeney  Conor Murphy 《Climatic change》2006,74(4):475-491

Estimates are made of changes in effective runoff at a high spatial resolution for the island of Ireland under different climate change scenarios. The first part of the investigation examines changes in annual and seasonal effective runoff for the whole land area of Ireland. The rainfall-runoff model HYSIM is used to carry out the hydrological simulations. The output from the HadCM3 Global Climate Model (GCM) is downscaled using statistical techniques to provide precipitation and evaporation data at a 10 km × 10 km resolution; this data is then used to drive the HYSIM model. Simulations are carried out for each of the 825 10 km × 10 km grid cells covering Ireland for the baseline period (1961–1990) and two future scenarios; 2041–2070 and 2061–2090. Parameter values are derived for each square using data from the Soil Survey of Ireland and the CORINE land use database and validation is carried out for selected catchments. The results of these simulations indicate a decrease in annual runoff that is most marked in the east and southeast of the country, whereas an increase is likely for the extreme northwest. The reduction in effective runoff for the east of the country is particularly marked during the summer months. It is these areas that have highest population density and also where greatest population growth is likely to occur. During the winter months an increase in effective runoff is suggested for the western half of country which could have implications for flood frequency, as well as the extent and duration of winter flooding.  相似文献   

Effects of an anisotropic overburden on azimuthal amplitude analysis in horizontal transverse isotropic media     

Sonja Maultzsch  Steve Horne  Stewart Archer  Hans Burkhardt 《Geophysical Prospecting》2003,51(1):61-74

Azimuthal amplitude variation in fractured media, commonly used to characterize fracture systems, is a function not only of reflection at the target but also of transmission through the overburden. This study investigates the sensitivity of amplitudes to various anisotropic overburden effects in horizontal transverse isotropic (HTI) media. Issues considered here are geometric spreading, transmission coefficients and attenuation due to fluid flow. Their influence on the azimuthal amplitude variation is evaluated quantitatively over a wide model space.
Only the variation of transmission coefficients with azimuth proves to be negligible. Geometric spreading alters the amplitude signature significantly over a relatively narrow range of models, and its influence increases with layer thickness. The most severe effect of an anisotropic fractured overburden is attenuation due to fluid flow between the cracks or the cracks and pores in the surrounding matrix. The relative changes in amplitudes between the symmetry directions due to anisotropic absorption are of the same order of magnitude as the changes in the reflection coefficient. The effect is significant over a very wide range of petrophysical parameters. Thus it leads to considerable problems in the amplitude analysis for almost any case of an overburden that contains cracks and pores. A correct amplitude analysis at the target will not be possible unless the effect of attenuation is removed.  相似文献   

Eclogitic and websteritic diamond sources beneath the Limpopo Belt – is slab-melting the link?     

Sonja Aulbach  Thomas Stachel  Stephanus K. Viljoen  Gerhard P. Brey  Jeff W. Harris 《Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology》2002,143(1):56-70

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Lithospheric structural contrasts across the Caledonides of northern Britain     

Sonja Faber  David Bamford   《Tectonophysics》1979,56(1-2)

Interpretation of both P- and S-wave data from the 1974 LISPB seismic experiment has resulted in a detailed cross-section across the Caledonian orogenic belt of northern Britain. This section provides clear evidence of lateral variations in lithospheric structure, comparable with the gross geological variations. In particular, lithospheric structure is asymmetric across the orogenic belt: however, the axis of this asymmetry seems to vary with depth within the central part of the belt. Thus the identification of a possible lapetus suture remains moot.  相似文献   

Stereoisomers of isovaline in the Murchison meteorite     

Glenn E Pollock  C-N Cheng  Sonja E Cronin  Keith A Kvenvolden 《Geochimica et cosmochimica acta》1975,39(11):1571-1573

Isovaline is present in the Murchison meteorite as a racemic mixture (about equal concentrations of the R and S enantiomers). Since isovaline does not have a hydrogen atom on its asymmetric α-carbon atom, the racemic mixture could not have formed by commonly accepted mechanisms of racemization. Thus, isovaline in the meteorite most probably was synthesized as a racemic mixture and is not the result of the racemization of either the R or S enantiomer. Other chiral amino acids in the meteorite are present as racemic mixtures, and were probably synthesized in a similar manner by abiotic, extraterrestrial processes.  相似文献   

Removal of Anthraquinone Dye by Cross‐Linked Enzyme Aggregates From Fresh Horseradish Extract          下载免费PDF全文

Nataša Ž. Šekuljica  Nevena Ž. Prlainović  Sonja M. Jakovetić  Sanja Ž. Grbavčić  Nevena D. Ognjanović  Zorica D. Knežević‐Jugović  Dušan Ž. Mijin 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》2016,44(7):891-900

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Scales of columnar jointing in igneous rocks: field measurements and controlling factors     

György Hetényi  Benoît Taisne  Fanny Garel  Étienne Médard  Sonja Bosshard  Hannes B. Mattsson 《Bulletin of Volcanology》2012,74(2):457-482

Columnar jointing is a common feature of solidified lavas, sills and dikes, but the factors controlling the characteristic stoutness of columns remain debated, and quantitative field observations are few in number. In this paper, we provide quantitative measurements on sizing of columnar joint sets and our assessment of the principal factors controlling it. We focus on (1) chemistry, as it is the major determinant of the physical (mechanical and thermal) properties of the lava, and (2) geology, as it influences the style of emplacement and lava geometry, setting boundary conditions for the cooling process and the rate of heat loss. In our analysis, we cover lavas with a broad range of chemical compositions (from basanite to phonolite, for six of which we provide new geochemical analyses) and of geological settings. Our field measurements cover 50 columnar jointing sites in three countries. We provide reliable, manually digitized data on the size of individual columns and focus the mathematical analysis on their geometry (23,889 data on side length, of which 17,312 are from full column sections and 3,033 data on cross-sectional area and order of polygonality). The geometrical observations show that the variation in characteristic size of columns between different sites exceeds one order of magnitude (side length ranging from 8 to 338 cm) and that the column-bounding polygons’ average order is less than 6. The network of fractures is found to be longer than required by a minimum-energy hexagonal configuration, indicating a non-equilibrium, geologically quick process. In terms of the development and characteristic sizing of columnar joint sets, our observations suggest that columns are the result of an interplay between the geological setting of emplacement and magma chemistry. When the geological setting constrains the geometry of the emplaced body, it exerts a stronger control on characteristic column stoutness. At unconstrained geometries (e.g. unconfined lava flows), chemistry plays the major role, resulting in stouter columns in felsic lavas and slenderer columns in mafic lavas.  相似文献   

Spatio-temporal patterns of throughfall and solute deposition in an open tropical rain forest   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

Alexander Zimmermann  Sonja Germer  Christopher Neill  Alex V. Krusche  Helmut Elsenbeer 《Journal of Hydrology》2008,360(1-4):87-102

The brief interaction of precipitation with a forest canopy can create a high spatial variability of both throughfall and solute deposition. We hypothesized that (i) the variability in natural forest systems is high but depends on system-inherent stability, (ii) the spatial variability of solute deposition shows seasonal dynamics depending on the increase in rainfall frequency, and (iii) spatial patterns persist only in the short-term. The study area in the north-western Brazilian state of Rondônia is subject to a climate with a distinct wet and dry season. We collected rain and throughfall on an event basis during the early wet season (n = 14) and peak of the wet season (n = 14) and analyzed the samples for pH and concentrations of , Na⁺, K⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, Cl⁻, , and DOC. The coefficient of variation for throughfall based on both sampling intervals was 29%, which is at the lower end of values reported from other tropical forest sites, but which is higher than in most temperate forests. Coefficients of variation of solute deposition ranged from 29% to 52%. This heterogeneity of solute deposition is neither particularly high nor particularly low compared with a range of tropical and temperate forest ecosystems. We observed an increase in solute deposition variability with the progressing wet season, which was explained by a negative correlation between heterogeneity of solute deposition and antecedent dry period. The temporal stability of throughfall patterns was low during the early wet season, but gained in stability as the wet season progressed. We suggest that rapid plant growth at the beginning of the rainy season is responsible for the lower stability, whereas less vegetative activity during the later rainy season might favor the higher persistence of “hot” and “cold” spots of throughfall quantities. The relatively high stability of throughfall patterns during later stages of the wet season may influence processes at the forest floor and in the soil. Solute deposition patterns showed less clear trends but all patterns displayed a short-term stability only. The weak stability of those patterns is apt to impede the formation of solute deposition-induced biochemical microhabitats in the soil.  相似文献   

A review of snow manipulation experiments in Arctic and alpine tundra ecosystems   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

Sonja Wipf  & Christian Rixen 《Polar research》2010,29(1):95-109

Snow cover is one of the most important factors controlling microclimate and plant growing conditions for Arctic and alpine ecosystems. Climate change is altering snowfall regimes, which in turn influences snow cover and ultimately tundra plant communities. The interest in winter climate change and the number of experiments exploring the responses of alpine and Arctic ecosystems to changes in snow cover have been growing in recent years, but their outcomes are difficult to summarize because of the large variability in manipulation approaches, extents and measured response variables. In this review, we (1) compile the ecological publications on snow manipulation experiments, (2) classify the studies according to the climate scenarios they simulate and response variables they measure, (3) discuss the methods applied to manipulate snow cover, and (4) analyse and generalize the response in phenology, productivity and community composition by means of a meta-analysis. This meta-analysis shows that flowering phenology responded strongly to changes in the timing of snowmelt. The least responsive group of species were graminoids; however, they did show a decrease in productivity and abundance with experimentally increased snow covers. The species group with the greatest phenological response to snowmelt changes were the dwarf shrubs. Their abundance also increased in most long-term snow fence experiments, whereas species richness generally declined. We conclude that snow manipulation experiments can improve our understanding of recently observed ecosystem changes, and are an important component of climate change research.  相似文献